The Syndicate

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Sun Apr 11, 2021 12:04 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Apr 11, 2021 12:03 pm
Hally wrote: ↑Sun Apr 11, 2021 12:02 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Apr 11, 2021 12:00 pm The super serious mafia player in me was skeptical that the drunk posting came at a time when we were starting to have a constructive dialogue about the gamestate.
it was a saturday night
Exactly. No one had work in the morning, so why wasn’t everybody in the thread doing heavy analysis?
Sometimes people go out on Saturday nights with friends and do things away from the game in their normal lives?

That’s not how you get your name on banners.

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Sun Apr 11, 2021 12:03 pm
Hally wrote: ↑Sun Apr 11, 2021 11:40 am
Justplayingitcool wrote: ↑Sun Apr 11, 2021 3:54 am
falcon45ca wrote: ↑Sat Apr 10, 2021 5:54 pm [VOTE: VOTE TSP] aubergine
I want to stick my neck out and say this is an ok look for falcon?

If we assume both wagons are town (Al & TSP) then why would falcon ever make this switch? He can stay right where he is.

Similarly, if Al is mafia then what mafia partner/or mafia on the other team would go out of their way to switch like that right at the last second to make themselves immediately obvious? Of course, this argument could be countered by WIFOM. It's not completely impossible but I think the scenario that falcon is town and had a change of heart is more likely.
@falcon45ca why did you switch your vote at EoD?
Why does it matter? I voted within my POE, I don't need to explain beyond that I'd think.

I was comfortable with Al or TSP and was quite clear about that all RD. Anyone acting like it was a sudden change of heart or was incongruous with my line of thought in game is being disingenuous

Nah, I think it is necessary to explain. You were comfortable with both options, but you chose Tony. Why?

Hally wrote: ↑Sun Apr 11, 2021 12:02 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Apr 11, 2021 12:00 pm The super serious mafia player in me was skeptical that the drunk posting came at a time when we were starting to have a constructive dialogue about the gamestate.
it was a saturday night

Exactly. No one had work in the morning, so why wasn’t everybody in the thread doing heavy analysis?

The super serious mafia player in me was skeptical that the drunk posting came at a time when we were starting to have a constructive dialogue about the gamestate.

tedxtr wrote: ↑Sun Apr 11, 2021 4:49 am any idea how many wolves could be in the two teams? someone mentioned 3-3

i have no clue how multiball ratio works

3-3 or 4-3 have been my guesses.

Also not to toot my own horn, but there’s no way I’m KC Mafia via marmot interactions.

Justplayingitcool wrote: ↑Sun Apr 11, 2021 4:25 am
Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Apr 11, 2021 2:10 am So it's agreed. Falcon is tomorrow's chop.
Why falcon over Al?

that was a joke

Michelle wrote: ↑Sun Apr 11, 2021 4:19 am
Oddmerta wrote: ↑Sat Apr 10, 2021 11:04 pm @Michelle next time don't mess around, if you have mech on a hugely scumread player say so. Don't wait the whole 48 hours

TonyStarkPrime next time don't mess around, if you're so largely scumread don't get all prideful and not claim. You weren't going to be the NK ever, even if you were what are the chances we get two wolves off of you? Also now we don't have your RB and vote silence.
I didn't mess around, i spent all my free time trying to explain Ted is not an option and trying a wagon on Nanook, wagon who didn't grow more than 4.

About Syndicate's people pride you have to accept it and work with it. After a while you'll get it

What I don't like was how come the Sindicate vets didn't notice, like I did, that Tony has villagery posts.

I think some of them are scum in the town core and some of them are sheeping the firsts.
This is my idea for now.

If you are indeed the cop and you’re thinking of checking me: don’t. I’m about to self-resolve. Your shot is better spent elsewhere.

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sun Apr 11, 2021 2:52 am does JPIC have a large scumrange?

the only scum game i'm aware of that he's played here was radiohead, and he was outed pretty much immediately there so i'm not putting much stock in it.

BoKnows wrote: ↑Sun Apr 11, 2021 2:16 am who tf cartes abut previous gamex this is now

lol

People realize I was town all three games i played in champs, right?

So it's agreed. Falcon is tomorrow's chop.

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sun Apr 11, 2021 2:00 am
Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Apr 11, 2021 1:58 am Can falcon be mafia?
i think it's possible, in the sense that i have primarily sponged my confidence about falcon being a villager from my other townreads. i do not have any reasons to townread him myself beyond broadly liking his tone/demeanor. if everybody has him as a townread but nobody has a concrete reason to townread him, he seems like a good slot to re-assess to make sure he didn't get miscleared too easily

Ditto. I've been told he's easy to catch as scum and accepted that, since he was not caught, he must be town.

Can falcon be mafia?

Hally wrote: ↑Sun Apr 11, 2021 1:52 am who is doug ford?

the king of ontario

when i find myself in times of trouble,
mother hally comes to me
speaking words of wisdom

Hally wrote: ↑Sun Apr 11, 2021 1:51 am eating an entire sandwich is not that hard

This drunken episode interrupted my shortened POE exercise. As the self-appointed Thread Dad, I must say I'm not mad, I'm just disappointed.

BoKnows wrote: ↑Sun Apr 11, 2021 1:46 am
Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Apr 11, 2021 1:41 am
BoKnows wrote: ↑Sun Apr 11, 2021 1:39 amwho is dead?
Tony got chopped because Michelle told us she had mechanical info confirming Ted at the last minute, and for some reason people preferred to vote for Tony over al_sama.
y is ur not sticking 2 me

would you like to try that sentence again?

BoKnows wrote: ↑Sun Apr 11, 2021 1:39 amwho is dead?

Tony got chopped because Michelle told us she had mechanical info confirming Ted at the last minute, and for some reason people preferred to vote for Tony over al_sama.

Hally wrote: ↑Sun Apr 11, 2021 1:38 am guys go enjoy your nights. you don’t have to play mafia when you’re drunk

Unless you're gonna slip and tell us all your teammates.

i have a headache but i am sober

Long Con wrote: ↑Sun Apr 11, 2021 1:26 am
Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Apr 11, 2021 1:26 am
Hally wrote: ↑Sun Apr 11, 2021 1:25 am
Long Con wrote: ↑Sun Apr 11, 2021 1:23 am
Hally wrote: ↑Sun Apr 11, 2021 1:22 am i would put the odds at roughly zero percent that odd and sloonei are w/w
COOL, you're probably right.
then why did you say it?
Drunk
Hey!

sorry i snarked at you earlier.

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sun Apr 11, 2021 1:26 am KZA is a name that i would like to bring back into conversation. how much do we trust him? do we think he's a villager? is there any mechanical basis for him to be trusted?

I have been lumping kza/falcon/bo into a grouping because they all come from the same site and i don't have a ton of experience with any of them. When I look at the interactions I have had with each of them individually, KZA stands out as being the most authentic.

Hally wrote: ↑Sun Apr 11, 2021 1:25 am
Long Con wrote: ↑Sun Apr 11, 2021 1:23 am
Hally wrote: ↑Sun Apr 11, 2021 1:22 am i would put the odds at roughly zero percent that odd and sloonei are w/w
COOL, you're probably right.
then why did you say it?

Drunk

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sun Apr 11, 2021 1:18 am i have the opposite problem - there are too many names that i have lingering concerns about that i find it difficult to narrow my POE down to five names

why do you feel that esooa's claim makes her mechanically clear? i have the same question for KZA. it is possible that both of those names are villagers, but i do not see a reason to mechanically treat them as town at the moment

I definitely have concerns about a lot of other people. But once I get beyond those 4 names, I also have reasons to want to trust everyone remaining.

Oddmerta wrote: ↑Sun Apr 11, 2021 1:11 am I'm not a vig, I would of shot Al if I was

This would probably be my shot as well.

Anyone down for tring to build a 5-person POE as an exercise?

al_sama, nanook, and dom are unavoidably going to be in it, I think. Though some people seem to be treating nanook as self-resolving with his "I have a role" claim. But meh. If I am looking at this game big picture, then nanook is one of the three people I am most suspicious of.

The remaining two slots are trickier. My gut wants to throw Falcon in there as a signal that we need to re-evaluate, but that's hasty. I suppose JPIC belongs. He feels like a comfortable #4.

The fact that I am now struggling to name a 5th in the pool of remaining players is worrying.

"Clears":
Hally
Alison
Esooa
Michelle
Ted

Pseudo-clears:
Oddmerta
KZA

Me:
Me

That leaves the following group of people:
Long Con
falcon
fingersplints
BoKnows
staypositivefriend

So... which person(s) from that list can be crammed into shrunken POE pool?

MacDougall wrote: ↑Wed Apr 07, 2021 10:29 pm Mac's Guide to Scum Hunting in a Multiball Environment

Obviously the main thing to consider in a multiball environment is that the mafia are encouraged to scum hunt. Very good wolves know that it's actually pro their win con to, as normally, kill townies and push against town but the temptation to be sincere in hunting is overwhelming so in most compositions multiball environments feature an environment where everyone is scum hunting and every push in sincere. This causes what I dub the "Syndicate 2018 GOC Effect". Because everyone is scum hunting, and the mafia factions don't have a specific goal of gaslighting and exploiting townies to push the wrong places, the general thread sentiment is much more sound than it ordinarily is. Consensus POE's are likely to be very accurate.

How to find wolves in this environment beyond just ordinary POE can seem tricky, but it's actually quite easy if you focus on solving compartmentalized teams as opposed to "just wolfy". In actuality those that tend towards solving for base level reasons as opposed to heavily focused on team building are >rand mafia in this environment.

So we have a flipped mafia, now what? Well the normal rules still apply. Marmot probably wasn't in anti spew until late so he probably wasn't pushing on his teammates much, so you can use normal rules to check for who he spews as not his teammates. What's different is you can't rely on those reads to also be town and in actuality they are more likely to be mafia than town. The flipped wolf started the game with a more sound POE when it comes to hunting the other team than we did. So his reads are a great place to start looking for wolves from the other team. When it comes to reading those that the flipped wolf defended or town read, you need to check the agenda behind it. Was he genuinely townreading that person? Because that is a thing they can actually do. Remember usually wolves can TMI a town, but they can't here. They can only have genuine townreads. What is the agenda behind the town read? Was the person under any pressure? Is there any benefit to that person's survival in the flipped wolf town reading them? If so, maybe that's a team mate.

So questions that require answering:
1. Who did Marmot push on?
2. Who that he pushed on buried him?
3. Can we build a consensus small POE (less than 5 players) and then get everyone to draw a line in the sand on how they feel about that person?
4. Who has spewed themselves town by repeatedly focusing on multiball solving since the flip
5. Did anyone spew themselves mafia by TMIing that they knew it was multiball?

Just gonna bump this.

Mac's point about the scum teams starting with a smaller POE pool feels very useful for me right now.

I talked about reaffirming town reads yesterday but did not actually do anything about it. I think that should be a goal over the next ~48 hours. Not just for me, but for all of us. I do not disagree with Alison's proposal to swing away at the players in the bottom of our POE. The odds of all of dom/al/nanook being town are low. What this phase has taught us, though, is that the game is not quite as easy as we were making it out to be, and that means at least one person has fooled us. Double checking our town reads seems like the most effective way to remedy that.

Now, as for methods to do a mass sweep of players who are widely read as town in a multiball game... I don't know.

Hally wrote: ↑Sun Apr 11, 2021 12:45 am i wouldn’t be surprised if odd is a villager tbh. he’s picked a weird hill to die if he’s a wolf. i wish he would contribute more so i could feel better about that read though

Yeah, to be clear I'm pretty sure he's town at this point.

Why do I have a feeling Odd’s about to attempt to vig me?

Oddmerta wrote: ↑Sun Apr 11, 2021 12:09 am I seem like exactly the kind of player to make up a wolf read as a villager purely for ego reasons and delude myself into believing it.

Yeah get bent

I am sorry you feel insulted. I do not think you are bad at mafia. I have seen you play well.

But if you feel insulted, try to look at it from our point of view: you said in one of your first posts that you “want” me to be mafia. You have continued to present that as though it is a real read without ever giving an indication that there is actual substance to back it up. You have just put forth that I am doing nothing to help the civilian win condition. Given the effort I have put into this game, not to mention the effort I have put in to engaging in fruitless dialogues with you, I find your accusation to be insulting as well.

I don’t think that towns filled with players insulting one another are going to win many games. You do not need to worry about my alignment right now. I have a habit of self-resolving. If you are town, please work with us. That is all we have been asking since the start of the game.

I must remind myself that I have no reason to worry about being suspected by anyone.

Oddmerta wrote: ↑Sat Apr 10, 2021 11:52 pm
Hally wrote: ↑Sat Apr 10, 2021 11:45 pm
staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sat Apr 10, 2021 11:38 pm
Hally wrote: ↑Sat Apr 10, 2021 11:36 pm
staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sat Apr 10, 2021 11:34 pm "he isn't helping the town win condition" is the most vague reasoning for a wolfread that i've seen in any mafia game i've played ever

i think that sloonei is a villager, but i am open to entertaining tinfoil/skepticism about him. i have not seen any tinfoil against him that is not coaxed in overly vague and generic language
it’s vague because he made it up. he’s arbitrarily decided to wolf read sloonei since the start of the game because he wants to beat the champ. he has yet to provide any coherent or concrete reason why sloonei is a wolf
i agree that this seems to be his motivation - do you believe that oddmerta would approach sloonei in such a way if he was a villager? is oddmerta the type of villager to "make things up"?

i don't know the answer, but i'm asking you because if your description of oddmerta's push on sloonei is accurate, then i find it difficult to imagine him doing that from a villager mindset
honestly? odd seems like exactly the kind of player to make up a wolf read as a villager purely for ego reasons and delude himself into believing it. he could also be a wolf doing it. it’s hard to say
Don't insult me

Don’t insult us.

Oddmerta wrote: ↑Sat Apr 10, 2021 11:37 pm Why did he go off wagon today?

If I wasn’t an admin I’d be saying bad words right now.

Oddmerta wrote: ↑Sat Apr 10, 2021 11:15 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Apr 10, 2021 11:12 pm
Oddmerta wrote: ↑Sat Apr 10, 2021 11:11 pm I don't trust Michelle anymore after that stunt but we have to roll with it because if either her or Ted flip red they are done
What do you mean when you say you don’t trust her?
I mean chocolate tastes like fish, what the hell do you think I mean?

I have no idea what you mean, because it is unclear. Hence the question. An answer would be nice.

Oddmerta wrote: ↑Sat Apr 10, 2021 11:11 pm I don't trust Michelle anymore after that stunt but we have to roll with it because if either her or Ted flip red they are done

What do you mean when you say you don’t trust her?

If I am choosing a “cleared” player we gave a pass to too easily, it’s falcon.

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Apr 10, 2021 10:52 pm i agree jpic is not on marmot’s team but i think he could pretty easily be on the other one. nothing he’s posted feels difficult for a wolf to post at all

Yeah.

Does @Long Con still suspect me after tony flipped town?

KZA wrote: ↑Sat Apr 10, 2021 10:46 pm Does anyone seriously townread JPIC?

Gun to my head, yes. I don’t think he’s Team Marmot, at least. But that’s not a slot I’m comfortable reading right now.

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Apr 10, 2021 10:43 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Apr 10, 2021 10:42 pm
Hally wrote: ↑Sat Apr 10, 2021 10:39 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Apr 10, 2021 9:29 pm
Hally wrote: ↑Sat Apr 10, 2021 8:00 pm why is fingersplints a suspect? i don’t understand that. her posts seem completely fine to me
Just glancing at the thread after getting in from work. Have not read anything.

Fingersplints is in the “Not a townread” mold rather than the “scum read” mold.
why isn’t she a town read?
Her style has not leant itself to being overtly anything. She’s been active enough to avoid being a low poster, but has not done anything that has rocked the boat in any way either.
that seems like more a playstyle thing than an alignment thing, no? is she usually one to rock the boat as a villager?

I am not saying it is not a playstyle thing. Again, she's in the POE because she’s not a firm townread, not because she is actively suspicious.

Why was nanook not an option after Michelle wiped ted off the board?

I would have voted for al_sama if I was here and being forced to choose between him and TSP. LC was partially right about me: I never suspected TSP that hard. If anything, I wish, I’d done more to stick up for him.

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Apr 10, 2021 10:39 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Apr 10, 2021 9:29 pm
Hally wrote: ↑Sat Apr 10, 2021 8:00 pm why is fingersplints a suspect? i don’t understand that. her posts seem completely fine to me
Just glancing at the thread after getting in from work. Have not read anything.

Fingersplints is in the “Not a townread” mold rather than the “scum read” mold.
why isn’t she a town read?

Her style has not leant itself to being overtly anything. She’s been active enough to avoid being a low poster, but has not done anything that has rocked the boat in any way either.

I will also tentatively call LC a town read for his reaction to my ted case.

KZA wrote: ↑Sat Apr 10, 2021 10:14 pm Marmot already showed as innocent to cops so hopefully theres not more than 1 of those

So he did. Two godfathers is broken and goofy.

I’ll still maintain a space in my brain for ted to be mafia. But it will not be a space I allow myself to dwell in at the expense of more pressing concerns.

I am unlikely to do anything big tonight. My brain needs to recalibrate.

I want to echo the voices that have said we do not need to panic. Our POE is still likely to contain at least a couple of wolves.

But what I would like to see is more open communication from and with everyone. That includes myself. Everyone is town until proven otherwise. And it is going to take a full team effort to get where we need to go.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Apr 10, 2021 10:01 pm I do not distrust Michelle, and it was the correct decision to back off of ted today. But I’m not 100% sure I believe ted is town.

to clarify: we know nothing about the setup, and Michelle has not claimed anything specific about her role, that I know of. Even if she is a cop, it is possible for a godfather to exist.

I do not distrust Michelle, and it was the correct decision to back off of ted today. But I’m not 100% sure I believe ted is town.

Long Con wrote: ↑Sat Apr 10, 2021 4:53 pm Like... don't *believe* me. Go into Sloonei's ISO and search for 'TSP' and decide for yourselves. I went in just to see what Sloonei's position on TSP has been, and what I found was more incriminating than I expected.

I know it’s moot now, but like you may want to also search “tony” while you’re in there next time, boss.

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Apr 10, 2021 8:00 pm why is fingersplints a suspect? i don’t understand that. her posts seem completely fine to me

Just glancing at the thread after getting in from work. Have not read anything.

Fingersplints is in the “Not a townread” mold rather than the “scum read” mold.

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