The Syndicate

Poison wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 9:51 pm Either way, if everyone is convinced that Sloonei is locked town, I would suggest them to look into FG and Enrique

I have already done this. Do you disagree with anything I said in my big posts from today?

Poison wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 9:48 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 9:43 pm
Poison wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 9:40 pm I think I'm kinda here :
TSP
Marmot
Nutella

Enrique

Sloonei
Funnygurl
Why am I not town?
I don't know for sure tbh but your progression on me seems sketchy, as if you wanna say you did find me scummy because of these things, I might just be wrong though. But I had hard time reading you as any alignment this game tbh.

I was Not Town in your eyes before all of this. Why wasn't I town on Day 1?
Why is my progression on you sketchy in particular? Everyone else suspects you right now as well.

Poison wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 9:40 pm I think I'm kinda here :
TSP
Marmot
Nutella

Enrique

Sloonei
Funnygurl

Why am I not town?

Poison wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 9:22 pm I kinda feel bad for town!Sloonei, after all that assessment and his time on making the post, but in the end it is wrong. Would blame my playstyle for sure.

This is the second time you’ve made this post in this game.

Also my reasons for town reading Marmot and funnygurl are in that big post. I town-read Enrique for my other big post on this page.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 9:21 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 9:14 pm How is this L-2? What do we know about the mechanics of this game?
host post saying 5 is chop?

... i was thinking you meant we are one mischop away from lylo.

This is what a Mafia Champion looks like, folks.

Poison wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 9:15 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 8:40 pm [VOTE: poison] aubergine

She looks Not Town. Everybody else looks Town.
So, who are you going to look into after my flip? You have to decide from these towny people only.

I’m open to suggestions.

How is this L-2? What do we know about the mechanics of this game?

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 9:04 pm Recall, though, we're at L-2 right now.

huh

mafia is the only group project i ever liked.

the problem with writing massive posts is that they take a long time to make so then by the time i reach the end i'm impatient and never go back to proofread.

[VOTE: poison] aubergine

She looks Not Town. Everybody else looks Town.

"Is Enrique mafia?" Sloonei asks himself.
Sloonei opens Enrqiue's ISO. Sloonei sees the following post:

Spoiler: show

Enrique wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 7:09 pm
Alison wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 6:46 pm
Enrique wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 6:40 pm
Alison wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 6:16 pm
Enrique wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 6:15 pm I think Vulgard is playing day 1 in much the way that other people play day 1. means nothing.
What do you think about the people who piled on Vulgard then? Which of them look like opportunistic scum trying to throw shade to you, and which of them look like townies with legit suspicions?
1. I don’t agree with them (you).
2. funnygurl
3. I wouldn’t say anybody *looks* like that. I could buy most of them (you) individually. But I wouldn’t go as far as to say I’m getting a good vibe from anyone in this group.
What parts of FG's progression felt off to you?
If all of us have very little justification to seriously suspect anyone right now, fg’s pointing at Vulgard seemed especially low effort... I don’t get the “fishing” thing or how it’s alignment indicative at this stage of the game. How she defines it looks to me like both what she’s doing and what everyone else is doing:

it looks like you're trying to form reads and give an appearance of wolf hunting when a) it ain't really the time for it and b) your suspicions are of little substance atm
I think people are allowed to be hypocrites about how they play vs. how they read other players, but this was really on the nose and smelled at least a little funny to me.

Now excuse me for contradicting myself about forgiving hypocrisies but I just noticed this about another player while going through some ISOs:

Long Con wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 1:50 pm
Alison wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 1:44 pm
Long Con wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 1:40 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 1:27 pm People have squinted at me for saying that I have "genuine" reads in the past, as if every read I share as town is supposed to be genuine.

So with that in mind, here's a read of unknown sincerity:

Vulgard is mafia.
I can see it. Pre-slank excuse, mech chatter, and bland greetings.
I could see Vulgard being scum but mostly because their posting looks kinda carefully controlled to be as inoffensive and trigger people's scumdars as little as possible. I had a confused reaction to that mechanic as well so I don't blame them for the mech chatter, and I think pre-slank excuses are NAI. There are very few people (in general, but especially on the Syndicate) who roll scum and then go "alright! I'm going to go and give an excuse so I can coast through D1!" Not only is this just uncommon behavior, it's also suboptimal - you allow yourself to engage in some anti-town behavior, but in exchange you lose a lot of ability to gain trust and manipulate the town. Syndicate is not a site that is afraid to exe slankers and you will win a lot more games by powerwolfing than coasting.
But really, I like your angle on the pre-slank excuse. Vulgard is a Champs player if I'm not mistaken, and that would apply more to that type of player more than a casual player. I think mech chatter and bland greetings do fall under the "carefully controlled to be as inoffensive and trigger people's scumdars as little as possible" umbrella.

Long Con wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 5:30 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 1:42 pm @nutella you were one of the out-of-thread demi-gods in Assassin's Creed. What can you tell us about that experience?

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 12:45 pm What do you mean by “theory meta”?

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 2:19 pm @TonyStarkPrime @Poison what are your thoughts on this game's version of Vulgard compared to the version you saw in the previous game?
I lean scum on Sloonei right now because these questions don't feel like they have any solving intention behind them. They're just filling out his post count. The first one especially rubs me the wrong way. The only thing I assume about this Nanook game is that the out-of-thread element is not the same as his last game, because I expect Nanook to have a bit more creativity than that. I expect, at the very least, a fun twist on it that would intentionally subvert our assumptions based on the previous game. Standard 'sequel' stuff.

That said, I can't see what value Sloonei expected from that question. There's nothing alignment-indicative about the way nutella answers this, and there's probably little relevance to this game.

[VOTE: sloonei] aubergine
Ironically these two are the most substantive of LC’s 40
posts in the game yet! And they’re both about scum doing inoffensive fluffing.

Sloonei says, "No, this is probably town."

Everyone starts to pile on Vulgard right away. Enrique steps in to be the lone voice in Vulgard's corner. His argument isn't much at all, but he states it with conviction. Immediately afterward, in the exact same post he goes on to criticize Long Con in detail.

If Enrique is mafia, then his plan in this singular post is the boldly and firmly defend a partner who everybody else is piling onto at the time, and to then follow up that by going out of his way to shade his other teammate, who is a lighter suspect in the thread at the moment. No one is talking about Enrique at this point, from what I can remember.

i put nutella at the top of that rainbow despite there being no memorable mentions of her in vulgard's iso because i assume he didn't put any thought into pretending to read her because nutella is obviously town and shot long con.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 8:13 pm Listening to In Rainbows. It's pretty good. Better than OK Computer or the other one I listened to. I wish I could understand what this dude was saying

transcription: eeefeiiiii ooooooooo asaaa aaaahhhh ahahhhhhhhhhhh videotape

Vulgard ISO

Spoiler: show

Greets Tony and Poison, along with LC. These are apparently the only three players he has prior experience with. Okay.

Spoiler: show

Harsh stance on Alison for her town read on LC. Even taking LC out of the equation, I think this is a good look for Alison; this is Vulgard's first substantial stance of the game, and it is pointedly anti-Alison. When you throw in that he's shading her for townreading his teammate, I find it extra unlikely that Alison is aligned with Vulgard/LC here. That's some deep dive distancing right off the bat.

He also instantly maneuvers to a townread on me. Either he's trying to pocket me or is acknowledging that I won't be a viable push this game (or he and LC coordinated behind the scenes to take opposite stances on me). Just noting this in case it reflects on any of his other reads elsewhere.

Spoiler: show

This post is formatted exactly the same as the previous one, but with a vote this time. Vulgard opens with a paragraph about why he suspects Player A (Syn) and then writes a second, unrelated paragraph dedicated to town-reading Player B (nutella). I assume nutella is town. Syn was town. I am town. 3/4 names from these two posts are town right there. I will assume Alison is as well. 4/4.

Vulgard wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 3:10 pm Not really feeling Funnygurl's posts either. They feel too shitposty. Like, not in a way that comes from town. Does she always do that?

Does Vulgard treat his teammate like this? No one was really pressuring funnygurl at this point. Vulgard was starting to feel some heat at this point, though. This feels a bit too early for a panic bus on his part. Tentative good look for funnygurl. He substantiates his point here.

Spoiler: show

This does not feel like a staged interaction between teammates. funnygurl's tone is much more aggressive. Vulgard responds a bit timidly, turning her read into a question and then shrugging. If they are partners, I expect them to be a bit closer in tone here. For reference, Vulgard's next post is a similar response to Syn:

Spoiler: show

Post #124 is funnygurl's response to the above post. She again comes off as the aggressor here, and Vulgard is clearly on the defensive in his response. I do not think this is what distancing looks like: vulgard initiated it, but funnygurl immediately spun it back around on him. If they are distancing, I would expect it to be move more consistently in one direction; Vulgard starts as the aggressor and maintains that role throughout, with only slight pushback from funnygurl. Instead, Vulgard made one point about funnygurl, and she immediately started wielding that to push her own suspicion against him, and his only response was to duck and cover.

153 is Alison challenging Vulgard's read on me. His response is similarly flat.
165 is me unvoting.

Spoiler: show

Let's compare these three player assessments. Alison has "really, really leveled up"; i.e., she looks much better now than she did before. Okay.
Poison "is weird... muted... very, very odd." She possibly has TMI and it "feels awful" despite the hedge about the "hot take."
Marmot is "kinda towny" but we're just gonna chuck that read out of the window because

If one of these is Vulgard's teammate, it's Poison. The Alison read reads as a wolf surrendering on a push against a civilian who has become obvious. Marmot is town because "I read my teammate as town for no reason but I don't care about this read so I'm gonna ignore it and then vote for them" is not a thing that happens.
Poison gets three vaguely negative adjectives applied to her ("weird, muted, odd") before we get to the meaty part of the read, which is itself filled with erinaceous (this is a word and we're gonna make it catch on) language: "It seems...", "possibly indicative..." "I know x, but y." Given the conviction behind Vulgard's previous suspicions (Alison, Syn), the softness of this read makes it feel like he is hesitating and trying not to come off too strong. Also, this is his first mention of Poison in his ISO. Marmot as well, but Poison had been much more active than Marmot to this point.

Spoiler: show

345 is a response to Tony criticizing Vulgard's suspicion of funnygurl. Vulgard seems to misunderstand that Tony (I think?) is commenting specifically on funnygurl. For some reason I feel like that's a good look for her. Maybe it's because Vulgard just seems to be pushing blindly here. If they are partners, he is being given an out to townread her but he doesn't notice.

The next two lines here are wacky and would have pointed strongly to Syn being town if he hadn't been town. He criticizes Syn for town-reading Tony, then in the very next line says, "I like what Tony's doing." Meh. Tony's town too.
He slaps a blank town read on Mac and arrives at the following breakdown of reads:
Sloonei
Mac
Tony
Alison
Marmot
Poison
Syn

Absent from this list: nutella, Long Con, funnygurl, Enrique.

funnygurl is town. Vulgard started a push on her earlier and then completely forgot about it when she fought back. If they are teammates, they are making a concentrated effort to distance from each other. Vulgard doesn't then forget to name her in his lsit of reads. We know that Long Con is Vulgard's partner because nutella shot him, so we can cross those two names off. That leaves us with Enrique, whose name, as far as I can tell, has not appeared once in Vulgard's ISO to this point.

Spoiler: show

First substantial mentions of Mac get an "Idk" and some more hedgy language with a prompt to throw further shade on nutella. This strikes me as a mafioso hoping that he can goad a vocal civilian into drumming up suspicion on another vocal civilian.

Vulgard wrote: ↑Sat Oct 24, 2020 7:18 am [VOTE: Marmot] aubergine

Out of left field, here's a vote for Marmot! Then pay attention to the following sequence, all of which follows this vote:

Spoiler: show

This is where I decided I could vote for Vulgard for sure yesterday. "[VOTE: " -> "I just noticed Marmot is self-voting, wtf?" -> "I am voting for Marmot because he is self-voting." This is not a progression that makes sense. This is not the kind of progression that Mafia #1 uses to push against Mafia #2. This is a mafioso who is trying to push a low-hanging fruit for reasons that are self-evidently bogus.

He follows that up with this:] aubergine

Spoiler: show

Vulgard wrote: ↑Sat Oct 24, 2020 2:02 pm[VOTE: I'm not sure what to do about Poison. I'm in a weird situation here. I think her play this game has been close to her mafia play... in an off-site game I read, but NOT the last game I played with her here, when she was mafia and fooled me. I dislike the fact her reads seem rather forced, and she seems to be struggling to find her footing in this game. The biggest thing going for her right now is postcount, because it shows that she is not afraid of voicing her thoughts, but there hasn't really been anything in her posts that made me think "this must come from town." I'm also more paranoid of her scumgame after the last game we played.

Alison is town, because I think that her thought processes not only make perfect sense, but show a lack of TMI. I might be severely underestimating her scumgame, but I think the complexity of her thoughts would be difficult to replicate as mafia. I think that if she were mafia trying to fake these thoughts, the thoughts would make less sense. But what she is saying is cohesive, I understand where she is coming from (for the most part), and she is being fairly consistent. I wrote that I did not like her early townread on Long Con, and she mostly ignored it in a way I also found very towny. There is just this air of stubbornness and confidence around Alison which I really could hardly see as coming from mafia.

TSP is town because he's actually solving in this game and he wasn't really solving in his last one. Or at least, some of his posts looked like he was solving, which is a notable improvement in comparison to the last mafia game I have seen from him. That said, the read is getting weaker, because I'm starting to see him shift back to his "I do not actually care about solving" approach. I also find the lack of shitposting very odd. Could potentially be mafia overcompensating for how I caught him last game...?
For now, I think the differences are notable enough, and I think he still deserves a townread, but I can see a world where he's mafia trying to appease me specifically, since I caught him last game and got nightkilled right after. I didn't have 100% confidence in my last game read, but it was correct, and it makes sense for mafia!TSP to play specifically in a way to fool me here. Although, maybe I'm overestimating my potential impact.
I'm getting sidetracked. The conclusion here is that I'm still fairly confident TSP is town, but I do see a singular world where he's mafia. I don't really think he's mafia, though.

[VOTE: Poison] aubergine

I'm not going to get anything from Marmot if they always selfvote like this. Would still like to see more than a selfvote, though.

By the way, @Enrique; how new are you to the game? Or did you already say it and I missed it? There's a read I have on you which only applies in case you answer in a specific way. I'm not saying what it is yet.] aubergine

[VOTE: The paragraph about Poison, once again, meanders around as the verbal equivalent to a series of shrugs. "I'm not sure... I'm in a weird situation...I think x but not y... her reads seem... and she seems... The biggest thing going for her is x, but... I'm paranoid because of past experience." Vulgard starts and ends this read on shaky ground, and never stops trembling in between. I have not seen him exhibit so much uncertainty when presenting his reads on any other player this game. Instead he says things like, "I don't like Alison's thin read on Long Con, I don't think it's reasonable to townread him for such a thing this early" or "I checked again and they (Syn) have done nothing within their five posts" or "I want Marmot to do something other than selfvote."
Hell, if you read the two town-reads in this same post (on Alison and Tony), his language is much less shaky. He caps it off with a vote for Poison. I'll also take this opportunity to note that Vulgard has mentioned Poison in exactly two posts so far. Both times, he has shaded her with his hedgerows and padded that read against two other reads on different players in the same post. Let's all act like the Rule of 3 is a rock solid scum tell now.

He caps the post by giving up on the Marmot post and acknowledging Enrique's existence for the first time to ask what his level of experience is. That could be staged. If it's not, then I think it's a very good look for Enrique. Presumably if these two had access to a private channel, Vulgard would have some familiarity with Enrique. But this would not be a particularly difficult thing to stage. I don't know if it is though. My general impression of Vulgard is that he was unable to get his feet under him in this game. Tacking on a random disassociating message for his partner at the end of a post like this would be a fairly composed move for a player in the position I'm projecting onto him here.] aubergine

Spoiler: show

[VOTE: Welcome to Tonytown.] aubergine

Vulgard wrote: ↑Sat Oct 24, 2020 2:04 pm [VOTE: @Sloonei Have you explained why you're voting Mac at any point?] aubergine

[VOTE: He asks me to talk about my vote for Mac. I hadn't done that. I never had any reason to be voting for Mac, I just left it there for a while to see if anything would come of it. This is question is all that there was. I essentially answered the question with a flat "No" and Vulgard never followed up. It doesn't tell me a whole lot. On one hand, he could be trying to get me to provide him with an avenue to vote for Mac. On the other, he could be asking me to make a case against his partner as an indirect distancing tactic. I have no particular reason to read this one way or the other. I think Mac is town outside of this moment.] aubergine

Spoiler: show

[VOTE: Vulgard's immediate response to LC getting hardcore f'd is to shade Mac. Good look for Dougall.

Big post of LC analysis which largely confirms reads I've already arrived at. I'll pull a few snippets that are relevant.] aubergine

Spoiler: show

[VOTE: This is the first negative stance he has taken in the post. I awarded Mac a town-lean in the previous post because I do not think Vulgard's immediate response to losing a partner mid-Day 1 would be to start bussing his other (assuming a 3-person mafia team because starting the game at 8 vs 4 in-thread is wacky). This point on Poison is slightly different because it's tucked into a much larger analytical post that Vulgard has more time to think about. But it still does give me pause that he's singling her out as a suspect in this instance. Not enough to undo the existing suspicion I have against her, but enough for me to stop and think for a moment. God knows I'm not thinking otherwise.] aubergine

Spoiler: show

[VOTE: He works pretty hard to arrive at a slight suspicion on Marmot. This looks like he's trying to shade a low-hanging but not-overtly-suspicious town rodent.] aubergine

Spoiler: show

[VOTE: He continues to be committed to shading Poison. My point has not changed. Enough to give me pause, but not nearly enough to remove her as a suspect. This is coming too little too late. I don't think he's really in a position, if Poison is his teammate, to not suspect her here. He had already started to lay the groundwork for that read prior to LC's flip, and he's going to be able to see the agenda in all their interactions clearly, and he can also see the direction the thread is moving at this time. To suddenly do a 180 on Poison here could be a death sentence for each of them.
The shade on Mac comes across more softly. He has very little to say about it, but makes a point to leave Mac in the POE. It's a passing mention at best. My gut says he doesn't even bother to say so little if Mac is his partner. Either go big or go home there.] aubergine

Spoiler: show

[VOTE: Syn/Marmot contains 0 mafia.
Poison is indeed very likely mafia.
Agreed that Alison and nutella are cleared by LC's flip.
Interaction with TSP pretty clearly pointed to TSP being town, so I disagree there. I also don't remember being able to do much with Mac, but the fact that Vulgard is making a point to dangle his name as a suspect here feels good.
No clues as the the whereabouts of funnygurl and Enrique.] aubergine

Spoiler: show

[VOTE: I can very easily read this as "Once I've bussed my teammate, we should probably look at poor innocent MacDougall next."] aubergine

Spoiler: show

[VOTE: A late funnygurl spotting. It almost comes out as a town-read, but he can't quite force himself to get all the way there.

----
Rainbow list based purely on these interactions, including the removed players:
nutella
Tony
funnygurl
Alison
Marmot
Mac
Enrique
Poison] aubergine

I am ISOing vulgard. I'm offering a sneak preview of the results: funnygurl is town.

[mention]Funnygurl555[/mention] you stand accused of murdering Syn. How do you plead?

I still think it could be Poison. I’ll take a closer look at things later and see how I feel then.

What makes marmot town?

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 1:51 pm everyone is towny except funnygurl. by sheer poe she is my vote

I felt good about her yesterday, but that was not a thorough read.

We do not know anything about the mechanics behind the players being removed from the thread. All we know is that four players started the game out of the thread and two more have joined them in existence outside of the thread.
We do not know that they are all in the same place or have communication with each other.
We do not know what mechanic is responsible for the removal of Alison and Mac: whether it was triggered by a town or anti-town ability, or something neutral; whether the four original out-of-thread players were responsible for it; whether or not Mac and Alison were even targeted specifically, or if they were chosen at random/pseudo-random.
We do not know how they will get back here. The first post tells us that at least the original four can be triggered to join the thread at some point. It is not explicitly stated that the other two can, but my assumption is that the same possibility is true for them.
We do not know what they are doing while they are out of the thread. If they were dead, they would simply be dead. But they appear to be active participants in this game still.

-------

Poison assumed that Alison and Mac were deliberately removed by a hostile entity and that each of them are town. If she is mafia then she just let slip a lot of information about the mechanics and those two players. We still have no way of knowing if this is the truth. But if Poison's assumption(s) are not true, then she may have just town-slipped instead: if the mafia team is not in control of removing players from the thread, then Mafia Poison would not be making these assumptions.

If Poison is town then the names I turn to next are Enrique and Marmot. I have not done a deep dive into Vulgard interactions yet.

Poison wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 1:13 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 1:11 pm
Poison wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 1:06 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 1:02 pm @Poison why do you assume the thread-removal ability is something the mafia team controls?
I don't think any town would be benefited by less number of players talking in the thread. Secondly, I feel like the players who are taken out of the thread were chosen maybe not random rng from the host.
But we don’t know what they’re doing out there. There could be benefits we are unaware of. They are very notably not dead.
Yeah they are not. They are basically like a zero poster. That neither helps nor destroys the game? Besides, we didn't get back the players who were out of the thread last day. How is it helping exactly?

We don’t know. But just because they’re out of the thread right now doesn’t mean those players are incapable of helping us. It is clearly stated that they can (re-)join us here.

If they are town, it narrows down the pool of suspects in here and keeps them protected. Do you assume they are town?

It’s a Mysterious Multiverse.

Poison wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 1:06 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 1:02 pm @Poison why do you assume the thread-removal ability is something the mafia team controls?
I don't think any town would be benefited by less number of players talking in the thread. Secondly, I feel like the players who are taken out of the thread were chosen maybe not random rng from the host.

But we don’t know what they’re doing out there. There could be benefits we are unaware of. They are very notably not dead.

[mention]Poison[/mention] why do you assume the thread-removal ability is something the mafia team controls?

Poison wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 12:20 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 12:18 pm
Poison wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 12:13 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 11:42 am @Poison who is mafia?
Hmm.. I don't know the answer yet. I think I don't see Alison as bad as I was seeing her before. I'll be reading the thread again.

I visited mac last night but nothing happened. I wonder if it is because of my role's probabilities or it had something to do with him being outside the thread rn.
If you had to guess right now, who would it be? Snap judgement, no reading required.
The fact that both Alison and Mac were taken out of the thread makes me suspect some old cats here who would like to remove their obstacles from the thread in case they get caught??

If I go by that, my snap judgement would be either you or nutella... I TR TSP So I don't think he falls under this list specifically.

No idea about enrique and Marmot from this perspective

nutella shot LC.
I started the push against vulgard and was LC’s primary suspect.

Poison wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 12:13 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 11:42 am @Poison who is mafia?
Hmm.. I don't know the answer yet. I think I don't see Alison as bad as I was seeing her before. I'll be reading the thread again.

I visited mac last night but nothing happened. I wonder if it is because of my role's probabilities or it had something to do with him being outside the thread rn.

If you had to guess right now, who would it be? Snap judgement, no reading required.

The first nanook game I played featured two separate game threads competing alongside each other.
The second nanook game I played featured two players who started the game outside the thread and could influence it from above.
This is the third nanook game I've played, and it started with 25% of the roster out of the thread, and now two additional players have been extracted along with three deaths.

This is to say I don't really know what's going on, but nanook likes mechanics that take people outside the game thread.
I have comfortable reads on most of the players in here right now.

[mention]Poison[/mention] who is mafia?

I'm out for the day. Still no strong preference between the two wagons in the last half hour. I'm not sure there's much more to be done today, but don't be afraid to throw things out if anyone has any urgent thoughts.

Nice job, good Day 1, high fives all around.

Alison wrote: ↑Sun Oct 25, 2020 3:05 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Oct 25, 2020 3:00 pm
TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sun Oct 25, 2020 2:59 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Oct 25, 2020 2:58 pm What if we win the game before the other four get to join us in the thread?
what if there's a wolf locked up and we get all of the in thread wolves first :P
[VOTE: Quin] aubergine
you're nuts, Hyena has been openwolfing all day

Idk, more openhyenaing.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sun Oct 25, 2020 2:59 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Oct 25, 2020 2:58 pm What if we win the game before the other four get to join us in the thread?
what if there's a wolf locked up and we get all of the in thread wolves first :P

[VOTE: Quin] aubergine

What if we win the game before the other four get to join us in the thread?

I don’t have a strong preference between poison and vulgard and can easily see a world where they are both mafia.

Poison wrote: ↑Sun Oct 25, 2020 2:31 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Oct 25, 2020 2:27 pm
Poison wrote: ↑Sun Oct 25, 2020 2:23 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Oct 25, 2020 2:21 pm
Poison wrote: ↑Sun Oct 25, 2020 2:21 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Oct 25, 2020 2:13 pm
Poison wrote: ↑Sun Oct 25, 2020 2:10 pm Post game I really wanna ask people with my meta how could they find both of my games so similar.

I mean look outside of post counts. That is just a fog.

Also, im my next game, I'll be low posting and using correct punctuation regardless of my alignment. Let's see what happens
the previous games i've seen from you were G9 and Radiohead. i feel like i have seen less firm activity from you here than in either of those two games.
As I said post count is just a myth. I posted 10-15 times a phase as town and got yeeted. I posted 7 times a phase as town and got yeeted in my last town game. Activity is something I M playing around with. I used to post not more than 20 posts as scum. I changed that too.

My games depends on my mood a lot, I fluff D1 in every game. Sometime less, sometime more. I am mostly a high poster as town though.

I can post wallies when I like to post it to get town cred, I could do that from the start.

I'm just trying to change my meta so hard so that people starts reading me instead of my post count in the game.
i am not talking about your post count at all.
I thought your activity indicated post count
I do not see you generating reads and moving forward with anything in the thread. You are posting a lot, but I am having trouble figuring out how you feel about things in the game.
Because half the time in talking about myself? How am I supposed to move things forward if 2/3rd the thread talking about me / my scum read vul who I already scum read, and all of their points against me seems very fabricated maybe because I have tmi on me?? Idk tbh.

I just asked you to share any and every read you have and you shrugged in response.

I do not mean to overwhelm you with pressure. What I want to see is some patented poison reads. I want to see evidence that you are digging into things and trying to sort people out. I haven't seen it yet. Let's make it happen.

Poison wrote: ↑Sun Oct 25, 2020 2:23 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Oct 25, 2020 2:21 pm
Poison wrote: ↑Sun Oct 25, 2020 2:21 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Oct 25, 2020 2:13 pm
Poison wrote: ↑Sun Oct 25, 2020 2:10 pm Post game I really wanna ask people with my meta how could they find both of my games so similar.

I mean look outside of post counts. That is just a fog.

Also, im my next game, I'll be low posting and using correct punctuation regardless of my alignment. Let's see what happens
the previous games i've seen from you were G9 and Radiohead. i feel like i have seen less firm activity from you here than in either of those two games.
As I said post count is just a myth. I posted 10-15 times a phase as town and got yeeted. I posted 7 times a phase as town and got yeeted in my last town game. Activity is something I M playing around with. I used to post not more than 20 posts as scum. I changed that too.

My games depends on my mood a lot, I fluff D1 in every game. Sometime less, sometime more. I am mostly a high poster as town though.

I can post wallies when I like to post it to get town cred, I could do that from the start.

I'm just trying to change my meta so hard so that people starts reading me instead of my post count in the game.
i am not talking about your post count at all.
I thought your activity indicated post count

I do not see you generating reads and moving forward with anything in the thread. You are posting a lot, but I am having trouble figuring out how you feel about things in the game.

Poison wrote: ↑Sun Oct 25, 2020 2:21 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Oct 25, 2020 2:13 pm
Poison wrote: ↑Sun Oct 25, 2020 2:10 pm Post game I really wanna ask people with my meta how could they find both of my games so similar.

I mean look outside of post counts. That is just a fog.

Also, im my next game, I'll be low posting and using correct punctuation regardless of my alignment. Let's see what happens
the previous games i've seen from you were G9 and Radiohead. i feel like i have seen less firm activity from you here than in either of those two games.
As I said post count is just a myth. I posted 10-15 times a phase as town and got yeeted. I posted 7 times a phase as town and got yeeted in my last town game. Activity is something I M playing around with. I used to post not more than 20 posts as scum. I changed that too.

My games depends on my mood a lot, I fluff D1 in every game. Sometime less, sometime more. I am mostly a high poster as town though.

I can post wallies when I like to post it to get town cred, I could do that from the start.

I'm just trying to change my meta so hard so that people starts reading me instead of my post count in the game.

i am not talking about your post count at all.

Poison wrote: ↑Sun Oct 25, 2020 2:04 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Oct 25, 2020 2:03 pm
Poison wrote: ↑Sun Oct 25, 2020 1:59 pm I feel bad for Sloonei. Putting all that effort on my wallie and yet... Probably my first time seeing a wallie on me.
gimme some reads on some players.
Pretty much the same I had before. Maybe syn is not that towny anymore.

A confirmed mafia flip has not changed the outlook for you?

Poison wrote: ↑Sun Oct 25, 2020 2:10 pm Post game I really wanna ask people with my meta how could they find both of my games so similar.

I mean look outside of post counts. That is just a fog.

Also, im my next game, I'll be low posting and using correct punctuation regardless of my alignment. Let's see what happens

the previous games i've seen from you were G9 and Radiohead. i feel like i have seen less firm activity from you here than in either of those two games.

Poison wrote: ↑Sun Oct 25, 2020 1:59 pm I feel bad for Sloonei. Putting all that effort on my wallie and yet... Probably my first time seeing a wallie on me.

gimme some reads on some players.

Vulgard & Long Con

Spoiler: show

LC is one of 3 players in this game that Vulgard has played with before. Noted.

Spoiler: show

Indirect defense of LC via suspicion of Alison. Noted.

Vulgard mentions and gives reads on most of the players in the game, but not LC. Idk what that means. Does a mafia forget to mention their partner in a post like this? Or is it a conscious thing? Or is Vulgard just town who wasn't trying to give a read on everyone, but just dumping a bunch of loosely organized thoughts in the thread?

Another big, sprawling post that doesn't mention Long Con.

Spoiler: show

Long Con is mentioned incidentally in a question for Tony. Means nothing.

... and then he's dead. That was underwhelming.

---
Takeaways:
There are very few noteworthy interactions between Vulgard and LC. Virtually none. Vulgard barely even acknowledges that Long Con is a player in this game outside of a specific greeting for him in his third post. After that, he never expresses a read on LC or engages with him in any meaningful way. It is not like Vulgard has been omnipresent here, but he has done a fairly good job of responding to a wide range of things. The relative absence of LC stands out.

They could be partners, but that's based on a conspicuous lack of content, rather than content which is suspicious on its own merits.

Poison & LC

Spoiler: show

This is pleasant but not game-related. There is no reason this can't be teammates. There is no reason it needs to be. LC was generally chattier than he has been in recent games from what I can remember, for whatever that's worth.

Spoiler: show

Poison's response does not look particularly serious, but she is going along with a very bogus "slip" allegation very early in Day 1 from LC.

Spoiler: show

High volume of fluffy interactions between these two early on. It does seem like Poison is responding to more than half the posts in the thread though. She is not singling out LC.

Spoiler: show

This is a question about LC in another game, so not all that meaningful here. I will note that this felt like a pretty empty line of questioning from Poison. I do not see how it is relevant to this game. Maybe it wasn't supposed to be. How dare she make casual conversation?

Spoiler: show

This feels like a shoehorned question. LC is not part of the ongoing conversation, but Poison barrels over to throw a generic prod at him about his activity level. This has the look and feel of two partners trying to stage an interaction.

Spoiler: show

She continues to try to figure out Assassin's Creed.

Spoiler: show

So this went absolutely nowhere.

Spoiler: show

Another fluffy interaction. There is part of me that wants to say there are too many of these to be teammates. And, again, Poison is not singling out LC. She's been responding to everything, sometimes on-topic, sometimes not. (Also for what it's worth, I'm one of these old people: I'll never ever kill a player on Night 1 if it's their first game on the site.)

Spoiler: show

I am becoming weary of this specific line of suspicion as a pseudo-scumtell. In my champs semifinal game, all three wolves made some version of this accusation against me. LC did it here. It is the easiest way to discredit me early in a game. I've only played one game with Poison, and I was only alive in that game for 12 hours, but it was (I think) a memorable experience for both of us (Champs Qualifier). I played that game a bit more aggressively than I ordinarily do and made myself the most obvious townie that has ever existed, so it's possible she's holding me to that standard of towniness. But even with that in mind, I have a hard time believing that Poison believes in LC's argument against me here.
The flipside of Poison only having had a brief glimpse of my highest-effort civilian game is that she's never seen my mafia game. She doesn't know what it would look like. I also got no sense that she was in any way skeptical of me in our (fairly extensive) interactions prior to this exact moment. This is a verifiably bogus suspicion from LC and I don't see how or why Poison could agree with it.

LC is more enthusiastic than she's seen before. Not inaccurate.

Spoiler: show

See, here's Poison doing some work to put me in a favorable light. I sense no trace of that alleged agreement with LC's suspicion.

Spoiler: show

"LC seems okay nullish to townish I guess." As erinaceous as it gets.

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Fluffy marmot chatter. That is, the chatter is fluffy. Not the marmot.

Spoiler: show

I talked about this misunderstanding as a slightly favorable look for Poison in my LC ISO. But it is not a big enough thing for me to make that a strong point.

Spoiler: show

I don't LC's post here at face value. I like Poison's a bit better. I would like it more if she was more critical of LC, but that's probably asking too much. If the team is LC/Poison/Vulgard, they are firmly committed to a bus. It wouldn't be impossible with the way the super-early-game went.

Spoiler: show

This whole exchange feels very very empty. I do not like it. LC's question is flat. Poison's answer is meh.

And then he's dead.

---
Takeaway: There is a lot of idle chatterin here, but that's more of a Poison thing than a Poison & LC thing. A few pointedly negative things are:
-Poison never says anything or offers any clear stance on LC anywhere in this game.
-Poison expresses agreement with LC's suspicion against Sloonei and later refuses to budge off a null read on him despite there being no signs of Sloonei suspicion from Poison elsewhere in her ISO.
-A couple exchanges between the two which feel particularly like teammates trying to stage an interaction purely for optics.

These can still be teammates.

Marmot wrote: ↑Sun Oct 25, 2020 12:55 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Oct 25, 2020 12:43 pm
Syn wrote: ↑Sun Oct 25, 2020 12:37 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Oct 25, 2020 12:23 pm
Syn wrote: ↑Sun Oct 25, 2020 12:08 pm I don't like Marmot committing to the meme four hours before EOD
What? And also, why?
ideally people become more serious as time passes instead of less

voting for LC is a vote throw

and I like banter, but Marmot has low activity and isn't contributing beyond the jokes

I'm not being especially solvy myself so glass houses apply here
My guess is marmot hasn’t realized that LC died.

It has also been ages since Marmot played a game. I don’t remember him being super active on Day 1s in the past. I’m not disturbed by his light presence so far.
No no I did. That's why I voted for him.

well now i'm confused

Marmot wrote: ↑Sun Oct 25, 2020 12:54 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Oct 25, 2020 11:58 am
Marmot wrote: ↑Sun Oct 25, 2020 11:47 am*votes LC
Accurate but late.
Accurate?

lc is already dead

Syn wrote: ↑Sun Oct 25, 2020 12:37 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Oct 25, 2020 12:23 pm
Syn wrote: ↑Sun Oct 25, 2020 12:08 pm I don't like Marmot committing to the meme four hours before EOD
What? And also, why?
ideally people become more serious as time passes instead of less

voting for LC is a vote throw

and I like banter, but Marmot has low activity and isn't contributing beyond the jokes

I'm not being especially solvy myself so glass houses apply here

My guess is marmot hasn’t realized that LC died.

It has also been ages since Marmot played a game. I don’t remember him being super active on Day 1s in the past. I’m not disturbed by his light presence so far.

Syn wrote: ↑Sun Oct 25, 2020 12:08 pm I don't like Marmot committing to the meme four hours before EOD

What? And also, why?

Marmot wrote: ↑Sun Oct 25, 2020 11:47 am*votes LC

Accurate but late.

I did indeed miss that last big post of mac shade. Townie point for Mr Dougall over there

Another thought that just occurred to me: LC spent some time and energy trying to push a case against me. Poison has resisted giving me a town read. I've prodded her on it because I feel like I should be a clear civilian in her eyes specifically right now.

LC's posts indicate that at least one mafia member was trying to drum up suspicion against me. Poison resisting the general consensus of town-reads on me is a lighter step in the same direction as LC.

Long Con wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 10:51 am TSP? Is he in your scum chat?

In response to Vulgard saying hi to Tony. I did not understand the alleged "slip" that took place here and I would not put it past LC to do some playful distancing like this. I say that more in reference to Vulgard than Tony because that's where my confirmation bias takes me, and also because Vulgard would be a more direct distancing ploy here.
Also feel good about Poison for correcting him here.

Long Con wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 12:22 pm I like your style, seems closer to mine then the current trend these days.

This is in response to syn's self-assessment. It is nothing. Paradoxically, it exists.

Long Con wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 1:40 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 1:27 pm People have squinted at me for saying that I have "genuine" reads in the past, as if every read I share as town is supposed to be genuine.

So with that in mind, here's a read of unknown sincerity:

Vulgard is mafia.
I can see it. Pre-slank excuse, mech chatter, and bland greetings.

LC is very quick to jump with all his weight on the Vulgard suspicion. He knows me well enough to know that I'm primarily fishing for reactions right here. Hell, one doesn't even need to know me to gather that here. I'm telegraphing my play in the post. I could see a sort of "TMI" argument here as well: I elaborated no further than "Vulgard is mafia", and LC responded with three specific points that can be counted against him. I am hesitant to award Vulgard townie points.

Spoiler: show

This one is different. nutella's thing about Enrique is clearly a joke, and LC follows it up with what seems to be a "sincere" suspicion. It could still be distancing, but I feel more pro-Enrique on this point than I was pro-Vulgard on the previous one.

Spoiler: show

For most people I would say that this does not look like a teammate interaction, but LC is a different beast. I have no reason to read it that way, though.

i am listening to skeletal blues while doing this and it is scratching a chronic itch for me. thank you nutella

Spoiler: show

Alison's post, aside from just looking like a town post on its own, absolutely does not look like anything that a teammate would post in response to their partner's post. Alison's post comes off as stream-of-consciousness musings about Vulgard and Vulgard's position in this game, rather than a direct response to anything LC said. It is like she read LC's words and they sparked an idea that she just needed to vomit up in the moment, so that's what she did. Alison town. Alison never LC's partner.

Spoiler: show

I want Mac to be right based purely on this whole interaction. Looking at it in a vacuum and not assuming anyone's alignment: LC comes to Syn's defense after an attack from Vulgard. LC has looked to be tiptoeing away from that early Vulgard suspicion ever so slightly in a few previous posts (the response to Alison above, for instance), and he has nothing direct to say about him here. Absence is somewhat noteworthy.

Spoiler: show

Direct defense of Vulgard directed at funnygurl. Noted.

Spoiler: show

Mac, what was LC doing? Why did you like it? you're reading all of this, right? Maybe I should start putting provocative words in the middle of wall posts to draw attention to certain points. MASTICATE

Sloonei lock town

Spoiler: show

LC has placed himself firmly in the anti-Sloonei camp (more accurately, LC is the sole resident of the anti-Sloonei camp), so this position is a pretty carefully-worded pro-vulgard post without saying it directly.
I also continue to feel like Alison is town in these interactions. LC is responding to her in a number of places that feel a bit too conversational to be partners, if that makes sense.

Spoiler: show

This exchange with Poison feels a bit empty and uninspiring. Nothing is distinctly bad about it, but I can't make an argument that these two are not partnered here.

Spoiler: show

LC tacks onto an argument about why Vulgard and Alison are not teammates by making a point about the way they both approached Syn, in response to a point made by Poison. Uh. First of all, "Why aren't Vulgard and Alison mafia partners" is not the question I was asking at the start of this whole thing, JUST SAYIN'. Second, I'm not really sure there's any substance to LC's point here, which makes me feel like it is a post that he crafted with a bit of wifom in mind. "Here's a point that none of the people involved care about, probably." I'm gonna boldly speculate that at least one of LC's partners appears somewhere in this exchange.

Long Con wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 10:49 pm
TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 10:43 pm I have a role that can kill Long Con at any time
Ha! Well, you didn't do it last time and it bit you in the ass! Just give me one phase to enjoy myself, at least.

Tony probably doesn't make this claim if he's LC's partner. It is too out-there.
Neither does nutella, and she certainly doesn't follow through with the act.

Welcome to Tonytown.

Long Con wrote: ↑Sat Oct 24, 2020 2:51 am
Syn wrote: ↑Sat Oct 24, 2020 2:49 am
TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Oct 24, 2020 1:36 am But not doing anything wrong is a scum tell and I’m not even exactly joking
idk how to respond to this

I'll try to be wolfier
Nice immaculate play, sucka. That'll teach you to think you're better than us.

uber casual. idk.

Spoiler: show

No it's not. Alison is town. Poison is unknown. I could see this being another patented wacky LC wifom post.

Long Con wrote: ↑Sat Oct 24, 2020 10:45 am Marmot traditionally self-votes at the start, iirc. Just putting it out there, I don't see it as at all alignment-indicative. I understand it probably confuses most players here. I don't particularly condone it as useful or productive, I just remember it.

Pro-Marmot, but I read this more as "I like Marmot, let him play the game" than "Marmot is my teammate, back off." Also I'm not sure LC goes out of his way to defend a teammate against something so soft as self-vote suspicion here. Slight townie point for marmot.

Spoiler: show

That is certainly a description of events. But what does LC think of those events?
At this point I'd like to note that LC has talked a lot about Vulgard but, outside of one tiny fluff interaction at the very start of the game, he has not once talked to Vulgard. Make of that what you will.

Ignoring tony, nutella, and alison posts at this stage. they town.

Spoiler: show

This misunderstanding feels a bit genuine, which would be a good look for Poison. Not a strong enough point to make me feel great about poison, but it definitely is a positive for her.

Spoiler: show

LC hops on the apparent concern about Marmot claiming something akin to vanilla town. Noted.

Spoiler: show

Contrary to the previous townie points for Poison, these questions from LC feel a bit... meandering? Arbitrary? In a way that gives me a sense that this is a staged interaction; like the spectacle of LC and Poison being disconnected here is more important than whatever the conclusion of this conversation might be.

Long Con wrote: ↑Sat Oct 24, 2020 10:20 pm
Enrique wrote: ↑Sat Oct 24, 2020 10:14 pmlong con
But why

Enrique calls LC his top scum read. LC is not pleased. Enrique is town.

Spoiler: show

LC really wanted me to say Tony was suspicious right here.

------

Conclusions: nutella is town; she shot LC.
Tony is town; LC was pushing him persistently, Tony said he could kill LC with his role, their interactions do not feel like those of teammates.
Alison is town; her interactions with LC/LC's interactions with her have the feel of a mafioso (LC) feeding off a civilian's (Alison) energy.
Enrique is town; LC didn't like it when Enrique called him a suspect.
I would lean town on Marmot. LC stuck his neck out to defend him in such a way that feels unnecessary and uncalled-for if they are partners, then later appeared excited by a potential push (from Syn) against Marmot. This last point might be a slight point in Syn's favor, now that I mention it. That said, I can't give him a confident town read at this point.
Funnygurl barely exists in here. The one interaction I noticed was a defense of Vulgard in response to fgal's suspicion. I'd count that as a point in her favor.
Poison, Syn, and Mac all have some iffiness in here. I would not cross them off the list.
Vulgard is a suspect. LC placed some early suspicion on him but then spent the rest of the day looking like he didn't know what to do with it and actively trying to cram other suspects into the thread. The two of them rarely if ever interacted directly.

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