The Syndicate

If I was the mafia's kill target then I think that points to a Syndicate regular. Because I'm Captain Supertown Best in the World Sloonei, but none of the newcomers know that.

tedxtr wrote: ↑Mon Jan 27, 2020 3:44 am I’m just confused about the kill choice here, that’s why I raised the point

Me too. But there are possibilities other than a straight mafia kill. TLib suggested a bus driver. A vig kill and no mafia kill is also a possibility. Or the newest recruit wanted to ensure their kill would succeed and went for a player who was unlikely to be protected. Or we're overestimating the amount of suspicion that was on me. We've been the two loudest people in the thread, so the case on my is magnified, but that doesn't mean it was consensus.

Question for everyone: did you consider me a suspect prior to today?

Trustworthy Liberal wrote: ↑Mon Jan 27, 2020 3:29 am

Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Jan 27, 2020 3:28 am Montezuma's soup will not include any paprika.

Okay then any information you have helps us alot. (depending on information)

I'm still going to wait. I don't have anything urgent to report just yet.

Montezuma's soup will not include any paprika.

tedxtr wrote: ↑Mon Jan 27, 2020 3:21 am Ok, why would mafia kill in a PoE list. Any reason that anyone can think about?

I think Okosan would make the kill to get rid of the association tbh

Maybe tedxtr makes this kill to push the okosan lynch with more weight behind it.

Trustworthy Liberal wrote: ↑Mon Jan 27, 2020 3:18 am

Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Jan 27, 2020 3:13 am

Trustworthy Liberal wrote: ↑Mon Jan 27, 2020 3:12 am

Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Jan 27, 2020 3:10 am

Trustworthy Liberal wrote: ↑Mon Jan 27, 2020 3:06 am

Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Jan 27, 2020 3:03 am I encourage Rej votes.

There are some players I would discourage votes against. There are more players I have no clear read on. There's also the problem of new recruits to deal with perpetually.

Okay you have my attention.
are you willing to out information you have then since either your immune to soup kill or will just die to it anyway.

Not at the moment. I will if I think it's a good idea.

I'm not clear on whether or not I am still susceptible to the soup kill. I will ask.

This is very fair.

How does my flip change your outlook on the game?

Am happy your night killed you were in the bottom half of my reads but that being said i don't wanna go to fair into it but makes me suspect i am off on more then just you. But again why the hell were you killed like seriously there are better options unless....

i think we need to look at the top "town" again and do a day by day thought process on who we trust and distrust.

As a jumping off point, I recommend a trustfall exercise: List a reason or two why you could town-read every player in the game. Then look over the list and identify which of those reasons are the weakest.

tedxtr wrote: ↑Mon Jan 27, 2020 3:16 am So what role were you

Chihiro.

tedxtr wrote: ↑Mon Jan 27, 2020 3:14 amWhat the fuck

I tried to warn you!

Trustworthy Liberal wrote: ↑Mon Jan 27, 2020 3:12 am

Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Jan 27, 2020 3:10 am

Trustworthy Liberal wrote: ↑Mon Jan 27, 2020 3:06 am

Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Jan 27, 2020 3:03 am I encourage Rej votes.

There are some players I would discourage votes against. There are more players I have no clear read on. There's also the problem of new recruits to deal with perpetually.

Okay you have my attention.
are you willing to out information you have then since either your immune to soup kill or will just die to it anyway.

Not at the moment. I will if I think it's a good idea.

I'm not clear on whether or not I am still susceptible to the soup kill. I will ask.

This is very fair.

How does my flip change your outlook on the game?

Trustworthy Liberal wrote: ↑Mon Jan 27, 2020 3:07 am Also when you are skum read by a few people and the attack target it almost seems as if there is a busdriver still alive.
That or i do question the Mafia Kills.

I was not expecting to be nightkilled, but I was really really hoping for it. I'm not sure it behooves us to speculate about it right now.

Trustworthy Liberal wrote: ↑Mon Jan 27, 2020 3:06 am

Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Jan 27, 2020 3:03 am I encourage Rej votes.

There are some players I would discourage votes against. There are more players I have no clear read on. There's also the problem of new recruits to deal with perpetually.

Okay you have my attention.
are you willing to out information you have then since either your immune to soup kill or will just die to it anyway.

Not at the moment. I will if I think it's a good idea.

I'm not clear on whether or not I am still susceptible to the soup kill. I will ask.

I encourage Rej votes.

There are some players I would discourage votes against. There are more players I have no clear read on. There's also the problem of new recruits to deal with perpetually.

Just so everyone knows: I'm now a stump. I can't vote and I don't count towards the town's total. But I also can't be recruited or nightkilled and I'm a confirmed civilian voice.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Jan 27, 2020 2:57 am is no one dead then?

Oh wait, I'm dead!

But I'm not. Hello. I told you I was not mafia.

is no one dead then?

I had soup earlier today.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Sun Jan 26, 2020 5:40 pm

tedxtr wrote: ↑Sun Jan 26, 2020 4:01 pm Sloonei, I thought about it. Rej and Creature are 100% clean.

Nice!

He lied.

I think you’re town anyway

tedxtr wrote: ↑Sun Jan 26, 2020 3:52 pm Take this with a grain of salt, I'm purely basing this on common sense, I usually suck with mechanics and setups and role balancing and whatever, but I think I am close to being true when I say that :

The cops are probably immune from conversion, or at the very least, they are immune til like a specific night. Either that, or a role has some sort of "protecting from conversion" mechanic as his role that has to be overpowered, meaning they can target roles with limited shots, or idk.

I think that's the case, because, town can't cooperate through sheer mass claiming and putting the puzzle pieces together, as there's a soup kill. So either cops are overpowered / are immune to being converted or some role's secrets can single-handedly change the outcome of the game.

There definitely needs to be some role secrets that have great benefit to town/unrecruited players. On the surface this setup is impossible.

tedxtr wrote: ↑Sun Jan 26, 2020 3:46 pm Can you compare his scum game from the Wire to this game and try to associate his mindset from there with his mindset from here? I will check out The Wire for myself to see if I'm following your thought process.

I don't have time for this sort of heavy lifting (I'm about to head out for the evening). But here is his ISO from The Wire.
That is also my most recent scum game, if you want to do a comparison there.

Trustworthy Liberal wrote: ↑Sun Jan 26, 2020 3:40 pm

tedxtr wrote: ↑Sun Jan 26, 2020 3:36 pm TL, is that read from a mechanical standpoint or have you sensed some difference between how he posted N0 to N1? Tbh, we didn't even have N0.

I really like his D1 and believe it is town alignened.
Sadly he has little D2 and even less D3 and would like to see more to compare his now to then.
But don't believe he is currently a convert.

are we talking about the same Rej?

Trustworthy Liberal wrote: ↑Sun Jan 26, 2020 3:34 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Jan 26, 2020 3:25 pm

Trustworthy Liberal wrote: ↑Sun Jan 26, 2020 3:19 pm Rej
Highly dought as N1 Conversion, and Unlikely N2.
If monokuma could recruit last night that is a possibility but am going to assume he was RB'd like everyone else With Lights Out.

Most Likely Town going into N3.

Why? I was just ISOing him too and came to the opposite conclusion.

Specficly i am confident in them not being the N1 conversion.
Will clarify to be clear if they were converted it would have been last night possible N0.
(Orginally ment not converted N0-N1)

Of you still disagree please state why while i move forward reading more people.

I read him as a potential Night 1 recruit. But that is also partially influenced by the vague info Fayt gave us.

We've had a lot of mechanical chatter that has helped move the game forward and advance ideas about what's happening. Rej has provided some mechanical chatter, but I wouldn't say there's much advancement in any of it. It's all stagnant. Observe:

Rej wrote: ↑Mon Jan 20, 2020 9:30 am Hello guys, people are already techtalking, I like it. Since no conversion happens at day, would this mean we end D1 with a no lynch or will we take the risk to find something.

Also there are many secret mechanics I wonder. I wonder if the secrets are related to mechanics/locations or if there is more to it like a towny turning indie or so?

Anyway I am super excited for some experimental setup :3

This is token observation with a token question and no follow up.

Rej wrote: ↑Mon Jan 20, 2020 12:40 pm Lynching D1 can be beneficial, just wagonomics and agenda analysis

Thanks rejbot.

Rej wrote: ↑Mon Jan 20, 2020 2:58 pm

tedxtr wrote: ↑Mon Jan 20, 2020 12:47 pm Rej, what agenda if there's nobody converted yet? Conversions happen at nights only.

Well Monokuma is the only one with an agenda? Something to look out for

Nah

Rej wrote: ↑Mon Jan 20, 2020 6:52 pm Just Monokuma doesn't pull the trigger himself, he uses culted people to shoot.
So the Cultafia has a faction killer performing a kill with the performer being another recruit each time?
How do they kill? it just says "the recruited people basically have to kill ONE player then survive". If that's their wincon then how do they obtain a nightkill or do they have to cause a mislynch?

Okay. I'd classify this as stagnant again. Rej is just pulling words off the front page and putting question marks after them.

Rej wrote: ↑Thu Jan 23, 2020 7:58 am Mac got busted meh. Maybe Monokuma and his fellas didnt see any use in Mac lol.
Also I had a thought helping us to rule out people.
When Monokuma has the playerlist, then do you guys think he could have a set order to recruit/convert those?

I feel some people set up some beartraps I like that. Dom is town.

This post accomplishes nothing.

Rej wrote: ↑Thu Jan 23, 2020 12:11 pm Finally got some free time, tedex and jack interaction is something refreshing.
Let me formulate my thoughts for this DP, I need a bit for that.

These thoughts never came. Rej spent Day 2 advocating for Creature & Sloonei lynches without substantiating either suspicion.
When we were scum partners in the Wire, Rej made several posts reminiscent of this one.

Based purely on content, I have no reason to town read Rej.

tedxtr wrote: ↑Sun Jan 26, 2020 3:30 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Jan 26, 2020 3:28 pm

tedxtr wrote: ↑Sun Jan 26, 2020 3:27 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Jan 26, 2020 3:26 pm

tedxtr wrote: ↑Sun Jan 26, 2020 3:24 pm So, Sloonei, who do you wanna lynch tomorrow?

Maybe Rej. I still can't claim to have a comprehensive view of the game. On a scale of 1-10, how confident are you in your town read of him? Is it based on mechanics or behavior?

Combo of both, probably a 7 to 8, pending on tonight, it could change.

What if I asked you just to rate the mechanical aspect?

His behavior is in no way out of line with scum rej from what I can see.

Give me til tomorrow to think it through. I can't reveal it.

aight

tedxtr wrote: ↑Sun Jan 26, 2020 3:28 pm Fuck I really wanna be right about Sloonei and Okosan cuz that case would be fucking incredible for me, I've never done such good analysis (if i'm correct)

You are not. Please please please reconsider.

tedxtr wrote: ↑Sun Jan 26, 2020 3:27 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Jan 26, 2020 3:26 pm

tedxtr wrote: ↑Sun Jan 26, 2020 3:24 pm So, Sloonei, who do you wanna lynch tomorrow?

Maybe Rej. I still can't claim to have a comprehensive view of the game. On a scale of 1-10, how confident are you in your town read of him? Is it based on mechanics or behavior?

Combo of both, probably a 7 to 8, pending on tonight, it could change.

What if I asked you just to rate the mechanical aspect?

His behavior is in no way out of line with scum rej from what I can see.

tedxtr wrote: ↑Sun Jan 26, 2020 3:26 pm I mean, Siggie, the only way you're getting credit is if DDL :

1) Can still recruit
2) Will eventually recruit me

I don't think 2's coming any time soon if 1's available.

So, it will ultimately be arbitrary, because, right now, I'm town, so

What evidence is there that he can't recruit?

tedxtr wrote: ↑Sun Jan 26, 2020 3:24 pm So, Sloonei, who do you wanna lynch tomorrow?

Maybe Rej. I still can't claim to have a comprehensive view of the game. On a scale of 1-10, how confident are you in your town read of him? Is it based on mechanics or behavior?

Trustworthy Liberal wrote: ↑Sun Jan 26, 2020 3:19 pm Rej
Highly dought as N1 Conversion, and Unlikely N2.
If monokuma could recruit last night that is a possibility but am going to assume he was RB'd like everyone else With Lights Out.

Most Likely Town going into N3.

Why? I was just ISOing him too and came to the opposite conclusion.

Rej wrote: ↑Sat Jan 25, 2020 3:36 pm hmm if for any wagon I would hop on too, I would also hop on the Jack, DDL or Creature wagon one of them is certainly mafia

As there is often some confusion about the term, this is player salad.

I guess they're not the only two options. "Good and wrong" is also a possibility. I think that's the correct answer right now. He's working too hard for specific mislynches to be bad.

sig wrote: ↑Sun Jan 26, 2020 2:50 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Jan 26, 2020 12:33 pm

sig wrote: ↑Sun Jan 26, 2020 12:31 pm I'm not a fan of my name being brought up over and over again by people. Not a fan.

And ted seems super civvies but like he could easily be leading us down the path of despair.

Is anyone who’s bringing you up a suspect?

Does “the path of despair” mean that ted is bad, or that he’s simply wrong?

I think he's either bad and tricking everyone or good and probably right

Okay. Those are the two options implied in the question. Which is it? And if he's right doesn't that make you bad?

tedxtr wrote: ↑Sun Jan 26, 2020 1:56 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Jan 26, 2020 1:20 pm

tedxtr wrote: ↑Sun Jan 26, 2020 1:17 pm Are wolves usually multi-tasking on this website?

what do you mean?

As in, if they have an ability and the factional kill, can they do both at the same time?

Oh. Yes, usually, but I suppose it can vary from game to game. Technically the factional kill is a separate ability that is assigned to one member of the team to carry out each night without interrupting their regularly assigned role.

But I believe this game requires that the most recent recruit perform the kill. I can't say for sure what that would do to their other abilities.

A quick glance at Trustworthy Liberal reveals several posts that immediately stand out as positive:
All of these posts reflect a player who is actively trying to piece together the puzzle that is this game. That means more to me in this particular game than it normally would, since the setup itself is as great a mystery as player alignments are. This does not look like a player who is anticipating recruitment, which seems to be the implication of Fayt's info.

But all of this is on Day 1.

Trustworthy Liberal wrote: ↑Thu Jan 23, 2020 2:07 am The soup kill is a single use or 1-shot from how i read it atleast.

No read here, but I want to ask why this is how you read the soup kill mechanic, TLib? Do others see it that way? This is not how I interpreted it, though I assume (hope) there are some limitations on the soup kill. I just don't see anything to suggest it's 1-shot.

Trustworthy Liberal wrote: ↑Thu Jan 23, 2020 12:48 pm

sig wrote: ↑Thu Jan 23, 2020 12:37 pm So I'm gonna assume whomever Bearo is, he knows Epi fairly well so I think we can discount the new people there. But, at this point we should have a mafia player to hunt right?

Since there was a night kill last night I belive there are Two mafia currenty on top of Monokuma.

This is also not something that I would be inclined to believe, but I'm interested to hear why the theory exists.
I think this sort of speculation is a good look here. Regardless of whether or not this is accurate, TLib is offering mechanical speculation that is off the beaten path, which lends it the appearance of being genuine. I take that as a good sign. There's no reason for a recruited Liberal to fabricate a theory like this.

I feel good about TLib based on mechanical speculation, but I see very little in the way of reads here. They expressed general agreement with tedxter's POE, but no reason beyond "I trust ted." [mention]Trustworthy Liberal[/mention] can you share any reads on any other players?
I'd not be inclined to vote for the liberal in this instance.

Day 2 began at 9:58 PM EST on Wednesday the 22nd. I am marking this for my own reference and in case others need it. Prior to this, I am assuming there were no official recruits.

tedxtr wrote: ↑Sun Jan 26, 2020 1:17 pm Are wolves usually multi-tasking on this website?

what do you mean?

I see. That was my initial assumption.

Fayt wrote: ↑Sun Jan 26, 2020 1:00 pm just woke up

tedxtr wrote: ↑Sun Jan 26, 2020 12:41 pm Not recruited, but rather Junko was a starter mafia.

this, yes. Junko was a starter mafia and not recruited.

Are you sure about that?

tedxtr wrote: ↑Sun Jan 26, 2020 12:41 pm Not recruited, but rather Junko was a starter mafia.

This is absolutely not how I am interpreting it.

[mention]Fayt[/mention] should we be assuming that somebody was recruited on Day 0?

tedxtr wrote: ↑Sun Jan 26, 2020 12:36 pm I'm interpreting that as the player with the junko role card being a wolf on d0

linki : not in this post, but I deducted that out of other rules and shit that I talked with okosan

I’m not.

Fayt wrote: ↑Sun Jan 26, 2020 7:03 am

tedxtr wrote: ↑Sun Jan 26, 2020 6:59 am And, also, it's not like mafia knows the bear. They don't have the same wincons. etc etc

Mafia does. Well, Junko does.

At the risk of outing myself, Junko definitely knows the bear wincon and knew who Monokuma was.

Nowhere in this post do I see a suggestion of a Day 0 recruitment.

tedxtr wrote: ↑Sun Jan 26, 2020 12:33 pm I liked one post from sig but I stopped because I have remembered something

If what Fayt's saying is true, then there was a mafia on day 0 and they knew DDL's identity.

So, I'll also look for distancing and shit etc etc

Explain. I didn’t interpret fayt’s claim this way.

sig wrote: ↑Sun Jan 26, 2020 12:31 pm I'm not a fan of my name being brought up over and over again by people. Not a fan.

And ted seems super civvies but like he could easily be leading us down the path of despair.

Is anyone who’s bringing you up a suspect?

Does “the path of despair” mean that ted is bad, or that he’s simply wrong?

tedxtr wrote: ↑Sun Jan 26, 2020 12:24 pm The reason I'm less confident on Turnip is because he hasn't done anything that couldn't be faked as scum. He has low impact, most of the times he's sheeping, there's no analysis of his own that I can take into account. I guess I'd just like if he struggled more and gave some reads.

Mostly, the thing that Jack put so much stock on doesn't seem town worthy to me. It just, at the very least, proves that he's not Monokuma. Which we already know.

I’d use this same argument on most of your stronger town reads, though some of them have “mechanics” attached to them and I’m not interested in asking you to reveal that.

TSP I never really town read for something he's done, it was moreso his interaction with me and jack and how they caught the bear, it felt like it was all town talking to each other and felt really refreshing. Other than that, I don't have actual reasons.

I'll re-read Sig and state my final opinion.

I wouldn’t be quick to discard a read like this. If a player feels genuine in the heat of the moment, that’s absolutely worth considering.
In the most recent game I played before this one (the Polka Heist) we had four players who all came to town read each other because we were interacting directly with each other and all felt good about one another. All four of us were town and we won the game.
Recency bias acknowledged.

Fair re: TLib. Meta isn’t a bad thing to use (I’ve been begging you to reconsider me based on meta) as long as it’s dine in moderation and with the acknowledgment that players adapt. You’ve acknowledged that in your TLib read.

There’s also still the matter of recruitments to keep in mind. I don’t think it will do to let paranoia suspect everybody all the time, but we owe it to ourselves to reassess things evert time a new day phase begins.

tedxtr wrote: ↑Sun Jan 26, 2020 11:51 am I see a common thing where you keep diminishing your plays as not worthy of your performance as scum here. Why would that be the case, given you already said weren't into this game much?

I don't really like this justification and if you're town, I'll request you stop arguing with that reasoning. Strongest players / experienced players can also have bad games, and they will slip in some way, even if it's not caught by someone.

Because these things go beyond “having a bad game” and veer into the territory of “things I’d never do even if I wasn’t paying attention.” Your point about me trying to communicate ungracefully with okosan about his vote in the thread: I’d never in a million years do something like that if he was my partner. If I’m not invested in the game, I probably say nothing. If I am invested, I come up with a much less lazy way to relay my message to him. You don’t need to believe any of this, but it’s true. Someone who’s familiar with my scum game may vouch for me, perhaps.
But there are better ways to make my case than this. I don’t mean for it to be a central point. But I think some meta knowledge of me as a player would help your read a bit, much like how you expressed a town read on TLib based on past experience. The image of Mafia Sloon that you are presenting does not align with any version of Mafia Sloon that has existed in recent memory.

I'm not lynching in Creature, Long Con, Trustworthy Liberal, Rej.

Why not?

I'm less confident on Turnip Head

Less so on TSP.

And then I have a huge null - scum pile , that is you, fayt, sig and Okosan.

I think the reveal thing out of fayt was really townie, so I'm willing to one up her to like the same level of Turnip Head.

what has you feeling a lack of confidence on Turnip and Tony?

What are the strongest points both for and against sig?
I agree with your read on Fayt’s recent reveal.

Responding to Theodore Xtr’s Big List of Town reads one by one. On my phone still, so I’m not gonna try to clip a big quote.
Note that none of what I’m about to say constitutes a read on any of the players in question. I’m merely going to comment on whether or not I agree with the reasons tedxtr supplies for town reading these folks.

Long Con - Disagree. Tedxter cites an exchange between LC and myself where LC raises a token eyebrow at me for jokingly submitting myself to monokuma. Ted argues that it looks like genuine paranoia and that mafia would “focus on other stuff.” To that I ask: what other stuff would mafia be focused on?
There is nothing in that brief exchange between LC and I that does anything to clear him. It was an easy read to fake and he’s as clever as they come. But ted also mentions “derp clears”, and I’d like to know what that refers to.

Trustworthy Liberal - I do not disagree on the surface, but as I am not privy to ted’s brain or his past history with TLib (I didn’t even know they knew each other), I can’t assess whether or not this read holds any weight. Tedxter, can you provide more context and substance for your Trustworthy Liberal read?

Rej - Disagree, but I can’t say I’ve done my homework on rej. But he and I were scum together recently (The Wire) and he was a pretty composed bad guy. I’ve seen nothing in this game that would be incompatible with WireRej.

Tony - I agree that Tony is town, so there’s that. But tedx doesn’t actually supply much of a reason here.

Jack - was town. That was a bad lynch yesterday.

Turnip Head - Agreed. TH’s progression on Okosan Day 2 looks good ‘n natural.

There are a lot more players in this game that are not covered by this list.