The Syndicate

what better way to close out my Mafia career by following a mafia sweep loss with a town sweep loss

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sat Mar 05, 2022 12:22 am This game didn't need a sloonei it just needed less self congratulatory play

who did that

Hally's night kill choice would have been interesting given another night.

This is a game where town needs a Sloonei.

Thanks for the game, Scotty. I enjoy the gentle theme.

HaLlY mAc Is TrYiNg To PoCkEt YoU

I'm genuinely happy. This is the best Not Win scenario. Hally wasn't losing, so all of the day's dialogue was irrelevant.

Also the game is over. We don't have to play Mafia tomorrow. We are blessed.

Obviously you killed it Hally. Bask in your glory everlasting, and maybe a best mafioso socky in about 10 months. Let's ensure this one isn't forgotten just for being early in the year gang.

And c4, you did everything you had to do. Good game to both of you.

Yeah that's about right.

@Scotty hammer

L-1. @Hally what is your feeling

Hammer is 4, so not really in "threat" range unless both NAA and Mac are town. Doubt.

[VOTE: NAA] aubergine

Nevermind that answers my question

Hally wrote: ↑Fri Mar 04, 2022 11:40 pm as i see it the two likeliest teams by far are NAA/c4 and NAA/nook

if there’s some flaw in my solving that makes NAA not a wolf i currently don’t see it

Can you remind me if you had something that cleared NAA/Mac for you? Or is it your isolated Mac read that gets you there?

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:53 pm Yes I'm obviously ccing and we shouldn't kill either of us

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:54 pm
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:52 pm
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:52 pm Why would you make him claim again wtf
Because he's about to get chopped
HE ALREADY CLAIMED DONT FUCKING MAKE HIM DO IT AGAIN JESUS CHRIST

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:54 pm
Hally wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:53 pm
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:52 pm Anyways I hard CC put me over today idc
then vote wilgy
No we should never kill either of us

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:55 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:53 pm can't stand the fps claims
And I can't stand mechanical incompetence, yet here we fucking are

@MacDougall, do you think this is a sequence Nanook fakes? It's not the frustration I am referring to in isolation, but the reason for the frustration. If he was really trying to cover for Wilgy and felt the requests for claim clarity got in the way, then that's what causes this -- town indicative. I am not "certain", but it sure looks that way to me.

NAA talked about sheeping Alison on Dizzy and MR, but he has provided his own unique aggression against Mac.

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Fri Mar 04, 2022 11:31 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Mar 04, 2022 11:27 pm Truth be told, if I am mafia and have a chance to hammer at MYLO I am absolutely not conservative. Dizzy and I won a game that way. People think I am way more anti-hammer than I really am.

Anyway no matter. I would be fine clearing c4/Hally from hammerthings just because I don't think it's a team theory that is likely to drive the Day 3 elimination anyway.
A hammer where you had to vote in thread and in the poll for it to count?

Sure. I'd have two tabs open and make it almost simultaneous. I wouldn't do it on a mobile phone maybe.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri Mar 04, 2022 11:28 pm I just think Axe is sheeping Alison without fully admitting it tbh. I am the only one left alive from her POE so he is banking on her being right in lieu of trusting his own judgement or the judgement of other players here (who he does not have alignment confirmation of which is fair). It is not out of scumrange to sheep a dead town reading a town mafia to win at lylo, but it kind of is to do so in the way he is. It comes across like he is actually in two minds about it. Coupled with the fact that the last game we played together he was right about me most of the game (probably for similar dead town sheep reasons at least partially) and then I got really towny right at the end of the game and nearly got him to throw. He's probably rather conscious of me doing it again. Especially considering that the way I got him to flip his read on me last time is probably not exactly clear to him how I did it lol.

I don't think I am willing to make that assumption for him.

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 2:27 pm @JaggedJimmyJay I'm going to vaguely explain why Mac is mafia without giving away the read entirely.

Let's assume that Mac is mafia, then we can assume that there is a certain agenda to his posts. I'm not going to guess too much as to how this would work.

Now, let's assume that Mac is town... Well then we can assume that he is playing without an agenda, which should roughly demonstrate a random distribution as to the alignment of people he's communicating with.

The random distribution would not necessarily be the game!rand distribution, but leaning towards mac!reads rand distribution. I'm going to assume (I've tested this with a couple games) that Mac's gut / instinctive replies are above the game rand, and he replies to mafia about 30% of the time as town.

Now, if we take this on some of his runs of posting, we can determine that there is about mechanically a 1% chance that Mac, Hally, JJJ, NAA, Nanook, DrWilgy are all town.

I know my alignment, and I have Hally, JJJ as lock town.

I think DrWilgy is firmly within town meta... If you disagree here, this is where I can be wrong.

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Fri Mar 04, 2022 10:56 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Mar 04, 2022 10:53 pm
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Fri Mar 04, 2022 10:41 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Mar 04, 2022 10:31 pm @NotAnAxehole, do you think MR and Dizzy both turning out to be town should have any impact upon the way you progress through your process today (beyond just narrowing down the total pool of options)?
MR and Dizzy weren't apart of my solve process. I was just playing the odds that Alison would be right even if she wasn't full confidence.

So no.
Any reason you valued Alison's legacy over your own process that led you to Mac?
I didn't / don't have a complete read on Mac. I haven't caught up on the game. My Mac read from earlier was his impact in the game, not a read on his alignment per say.

Not sure how these two posts can coexist.

Truth be told, if I am mafia and have a chance to hammer at MYLO I am absolutely not conservative. Dizzy and I won a game that way. People think I am way more anti-hammer than I really am.

Anyway no matter. I would be fine clearing c4/Hally from hammerthings just because I don't think it's a team theory that is likely to drive the Day 3 elimination anyway.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri Mar 04, 2022 11:17 pm Looking at all three of you, you also have given no real effort to push any of the other three of you on this day. That is despite Axe and Nanook both having articulated strong scumreads on C4 at multiple points in the game. No real desire to push him today. This makes me think that c4 is always mafia. If the scum were Axe/Nanook, it has already become significantly easier to start to push C4 to get this win (especially given I am voting him). Ergo I feel C4 is outed via gamestate.

The question then becomes who is the other wolf. I think asking the question who is the most wolfy between Axe/Nanook is more pertinent than who is more likely to be with exactly C4. I have had a mostly consistent feel that Axe is town throughout the game. Nanook has not developed enough for my liking, in his read on me and his general play. I think Nanook is more likely than Axe but not by much.

I've considered similar things about c4.

Between Nanook and NAA, my answer is definitely NAA as being more independently suspicious. I am not sure he is keeping his story straight about you -- he deduced you're mafia (or had a "read") on the basis of the statistical analysis he described on Day 2, had you in a hard dichotomy with Nanook who I think made himself a lot clearer at EOD2, and still voted Dizzy... because Alison said so. Now today he is claiming his view of you isn't alignment-driven but rather something about "game impact", which doesn't make any sense to me with his prior statistical analysis in mind.

To be clear since I forgot to mention: I wasn't here at all whenever there was a two vote wagon. When I returned I think the poll was empty.

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Fri Mar 04, 2022 10:56 pm I didn't / don't have a complete read on Mac. I haven't caught up on the game. My Mac read from earlier was his impact in the game, not a read on his alignment per say.

I don't think I believe this.

c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:59 pm [VOTE: NotAnAxehole] aubergine

Please explain this vote at 1 minute pre-deadline. If you already did just say so and I'll find it.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri Mar 04, 2022 11:09 pm I am going to be candid. If you think c4/mac is possible you are not earnestly reading my play in this game at all with any kind of nuance.

No. You already said once that it's mafia's chief job in a two-player team to dissociate and I agree, so if I am going to actually dissociate I need strong indicators that are hard to conceive as possible distancing. Mac/c4 isn't my first guess, but it's absolutely one to be considered.

Hally wrote: ↑Fri Mar 04, 2022 11:05 pm i’m trying to think of what a world where NAA is a villager even looks like

what teams are even possible that don’t include him?

I would call c4/Mac possible. Nanook/Mac I struggle more with but maybe. Nanook/c4 no.

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Fri Mar 04, 2022 10:59 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Mar 04, 2022 10:57 pm
You're confused at what exactly?

Not confused, just spamming that I am thinking for effect

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Fri Mar 04, 2022 10:41 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Mar 04, 2022 10:31 pm @NotAnAxehole, do you think MR and Dizzy both turning out to be town should have any impact upon the way you progress through your process today (beyond just narrowing down the total pool of options)?
MR and Dizzy weren't apart of my solve process. I was just playing the odds that Alison would be right even if she wasn't full confidence.

So no.

Any reason you valued Alison's legacy over your own process that led you to Mac?

okee dokee

@NotAnAxehole, do you think MR and Dizzy both turning out to be town should have any impact upon the way you progress through your process today (beyond just narrowing down the total pool of options)?

Hally wrote: ↑Fri Mar 04, 2022 10:26 pm well now i'm doubting myself so gj lol

I know it's annoying as hell. It would feel great to just have real, thorough confidence about something.

Hally wrote: ↑Fri Mar 04, 2022 10:25 pmok

Are there any single, significant moments in Mac's play that really push your read over the top? Like something comparable to the Nanook mechanics read.

Hally wrote: ↑Fri Mar 04, 2022 10:23 pm you all really think my mac read is that crazy?

No, I don't. I understand your read and for most of the game I have shared a dulled version of it.

At this stage though I am going to highlight anything that concerns me.

Hally wrote: ↑Fri Mar 04, 2022 10:15 pm i had him as a villager before that stuff though?

That's what I mean lol. He doesn't have to change your mind, he just has to keep you where you are while the rest of us continue to wonder out loud about Mac-as-mafia prospects. He knows you're going to engage any conversation.

Hally wrote: ↑Fri Mar 04, 2022 10:11 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Mar 04, 2022 10:00 pm
Hally wrote: ↑Fri Mar 04, 2022 9:58 pm not really but i think he’s just exaggerating idk

from his pov i’ve been his most vocal defender so i see why he thinks that
I'm just a little concerned that Mac is doing what he [feels he] must to ensure you stay in a pro-Mac camp at MYLO. Specifically you.
what exactly is he doing to ensure this?

Bolster your solving with pretty easy agreements (e.g. resigning to your take on Nanook/c4 without much dialogue) and buttering you up with weird comments about the general state of solving today

Hally wrote: ↑Fri Mar 04, 2022 10:10 pm let me put it this way

you’ve found me as a villager and i’m saying i tend to read mac very well and think he’s a villager

why would you just ignore my read? do thinks i’m just wrong or what?

I'm assuming this is for c4, but if you meant it for me let me know.

Hally, how do you feel about the recent contributions from c4, NAA, and Nanook just at face value? Without regard for interactions/mechanics/etc.

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Fri Mar 04, 2022 10:05 pm I have a hard time seeing town!mac

And I have a hard time seeing town ever voting Mac, so I'm not even sure if it's worth going back through game history to solve or if I should just push C4 Nanook and hope I'm wrong.

My vote isn't decided until the day is over. Sometimes I am that way to a fault. So I'll definitely listen to whatever you have to post (explanations or not).

Hally wrote: ↑Fri Mar 04, 2022 9:58 pm not really but i think he’s just exaggerating idk

from his pov i’ve been his most vocal defender so i see why he thinks that

I'm just a little concerned that Mac is doing what he [feels he] must to ensure you stay in a pro-Mac camp at MYLO. Specifically you.

Hally wrote: ↑Fri Mar 04, 2022 9:55 pm am i the only one that thinks mac is a villager? i feel like i’m on another planet with this

I want to take extreme care. You've voiced that a few times now, and he has made a couple posts that really milk that. "Hally is the only one doing the town work today" -- I mean do you even believe that's true?

MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri Mar 04, 2022 9:22 pm I'm playing my heart out trying to solve and y'all just being lazy and leaning on me like I'm still a wolf. Frustrating.

Playing your heart out doesn't make you town, what are you doing

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Fri Mar 04, 2022 9:45 pm Id have to sell myself first so

Is this to say that you have the team down to c4 and NAA?

MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri Mar 04, 2022 9:13 pm Neither is Jay really tho. Only Hally is tbh.

What is the purpose of this post?

I’ll be out for a while this evening.

@c4e5g3d5 thanks for answering. It might be prudent for you to examine the Mac/Nanook interaction and decide if it should be eliminated as a possibility.

It may not seem like it, but I am still listening and thinking.

@c4e5g3d5 how would you describe the differences between your town game and your mafia game?

c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 04, 2022 3:05 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 11:56 pm @c4e5g3d5 why did your suspicion of me increase when I asked you for your suspects
I didn't believe that "What are this one player's wolf reads?" was your first priority when you came back to the thread, over either giving your own thoughts or talking about anything that had happened in the day so far. It just looked like going straight to what's always the obvious thing to push me with, without wanting to admit it.

I was just seeing if you'd POE'd yourself to death like in PSY 2310. You had exactly one option for a mafia team, and it's the one you adopted in response (so that specific moment does not reflect you outing yourself).

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Fri Mar 04, 2022 2:58 pm Valid point, so you know now that my mechanical analysis was correct. What then was my motivation if wolf? I had a MR kill on the burner & once he claimed, Wilgy (who was town) was next up... I didn't really have to do anything here other that push Alison's Dizzy/MR reads... In this world I already have 2 backup options to the primary plan... So where's the motivation for breaking down the game into these two groups?

That's what I mean. I can't know it was correct without a better understanding of what you're doing.

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