The Syndicate

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 9:39 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 8:38 pm falcon kinda fell off of the face of the earth
I made a mental note at half past Trustfall o clock yesterday that you, Marmot, and I stuck around to talk about our results. Falcon trustfell and then dipped.

Any ride-or-die caliber town reads at the moment? I'd like to try again at building a coherent theory of the game, but could use some additional perspectives on the people applicable to tinfoiling.

[VOTE: falcon45ca] aubergine

I'll run it by my staff.

Regardless, if you're both on the same team then starting post game I shall dub you Dyslario.

I'd love to hear what anyone else thinks of Dizzy and ilario specifically for their relationship in this game.

I'll think about it, thanks gang. I might struggle to stomach a dynamic similar to Sloonei/Jay (10 years) existing for Dizzy/ilario (2 game cycles), but sure soul reads happen.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 8:45 pm I think that's pretty much exactly where I'm at.

If so, gotta drop one more to lock the game.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 8:44 pm Like, I get all happy just from Ilario showing up. Maybe I'm too deep in it, but fuck it, he's just town, I just know it.

Also, what's the reasons for him not being town anyway? Except game's hard.

I hope this doesn't annoy people now lol

It doesn't annoy me. If ilario is mafia he's played a fantastic game -- better yet than a strong mafia showing in the MURYM game last month. I don't have some clear or coherent case.

The reason I am exploring this so thoroughly is that the best argument I can come up with for either of you to be mafia is that you trust each other unconditionally for reasons I cannot entirely understand.

This is a game where mafia can town read each other and cruise when it starts at 11 vs. 4. I was also thinking of SoA as being a part of that situation.

ilario wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 8:43 pm Fwiw, I came around to just dropping the jjj tinfoil yesterday after his interaction with NAA

What was it about that interaction that made you feel that way?

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 8:26 pm Ilario, Marmot and Jimmay are still town to me. Sue me.

Are you comfortable saying that four mafia exist here:

Dolby
falcon
G-Man
Johanna
NAA
SoA

falcon kinda fell off of the face of the earth

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 8:34 pm
ilario wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 9:10 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 3:13 pm @ilario and @Dyslexicon could each of you please talk a bit about how you've found each other in this game and what has bolstered your confidence?
I was gonna answer this question and then I scrolled down and saw dizzys answer and he pretty much summed up how I was feeling
SEE ILARIO WILL NEVER FAIL ME HE WON'T

You might well be right, but it would probably be a good idea to expect more than that kind of delayed mindmeld.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 8:32 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 8:31 pm It's remarkable not only how consistently we find each other as town (Sloonei and I), but how often we are town. The random generators just give us the greens over and over and over.
BUT WHY IS MAFIA NOT DEAD YET

Undecided between 1) we suck and maf good or 2) we good and unlucky (e.g. strong POE but picking two wrong names from it)

It's remarkable not only how consistently we find each other as town (Sloonei and I), but how often we are town. The random generators just give us the greens over and over and over.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 8:25 pm One question: How long is it since you randed mafia against Sloonei?

Technically: 2019 GOC (we were both mafia on separate teams and correctly identified each other as mafia)

Semi-technically: A random game we played on Bulbagarden: I semi-fooled him on Day 1, but only by hard-bussing my teammate (then got shot by an SK on night 1)

In a normal game: Maybe Mountain Mafia here? I can't remember a different one. He caught me handily there.

Honorable mention: When I was an SK myself in GY!BE mafia, I believe he was onto the fact that I was off at least.

Marmot wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 8:23 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 8:20 pm
Marmot wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 8:17 pm Or myself, NAA (he might've had a fruit vendor claim at the time), or you for that matter.
I could see SPF swapping Tony for NAA just by virtue of claim dynamics. In purely logical terms that'd probably be a wise move. I think I'd view NAA as a last resort though. It's still hard to find teammates.
Is that based on his treatment of them, or vice versa, or strictly the composite of the two?

I'm not entirely sure what you mean by the question, but to attempt to answer:

I don't get the impression SPF was super confident about Tony sans-claim, and there's a decent chance she'd feel the same way about NAA now. Without the solidity of a claim in his pocket, we'd be irresponsible to dismiss NAA as a suspect even if I don't view him as a very likely candidate.

It might scare people when I say this, but I think it should be said anyway:

One of the biggest benefits of Sloonei being poisoned is that it should help you sort me. Either I'm as town as I look, or I am fleecing Sloonei for the first time in a decade.

The streak is alive.

Marmot wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 8:17 pm Or myself, NAA (he might've had a fruit vendor claim at the time), or you for that matter.

I could see SPF swapping Tony for NAA just by virtue of claim dynamics. In purely logical terms that'd probably be a wise move. I think I'd view NAA as a last resort though. It's still hard to find teammates.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 8:16 pmUnless of course, you think we're both mafia lol. Which would be funny, but we're not.

That's the possibility I am working through right now.

But thanks for explaining. I will think it over in my very own brain.

SPF's teams would have been, at this point, [Dolby, G-Man] + [falcon and/or SoA] + [illario if necessary]. Tony is removed for the fruit vendor claim barring a counter.

I realize SPF isn't infallible, but I trust her judgment and like it as a frame of reference anyway. It's noteworthy that she straight up didn't include Johanna, and I can understand that.

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 11:51 pm
staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 11:50 pm 1-2 wolves in dolby/g-man, 1 wolf in illario/limecoke, 1-2 wolves in falcon/SoA/TSP
perhaps i should amend this to be: "0-1 wolves in illario/lime coke", since we could live in a world where both are villagers

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 11:50 pm 1-2 wolves in dolby/g-man, 1 wolf in illario/limecoke, 1-2 wolves in falcon/SoA/TSP

Just bringing this back for reference and thonks.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 8:06 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 8:04 pm
TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 8:04 pm I think the latter is more likely for reasons previously mentioned
Did you happen to notice any moments in the game that pointed in that direction? If mafia had an inkling then perhaps that can be isolated to a timeline.
In what would normally spew me town but which here is is irrelevant, I haven’t been paying enough attention to say

Any thoughts on NAA's fruit vendor claim/rescind?

I don't find it suspicious. I wish to be cautious before handing out town stickers at this stage.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 8:07 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 8:04 pm @Dyslexicon is there a reason you town read ilario beyond marriage? Can you point to or describe specific things that justify that view?
I could I've been having the same thought process as him at several points in the game. For example, he shifted his town reads and ended up with the exact same four I had shifted to in my head at the time on D2

What's your present state of mind with regard to game state? Do you have significant worries beyond the common POE names, and if so about whom? I know I am asking a lot of questions, so take your time no rush.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 8:05 pm This is why I don't like trustfalls lol

I could tell you exactly what makes me town this game instead of mafia who's playing extremely well, if that is your true worry. But I don't know if that would help you. =p

It might help me. I am more willing to listen to that kind of thing than many would be.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 8:04 pm I think the latter is more likely for reasons previously mentioned

Did you happen to notice any moments in the game that pointed in that direction? If mafia had an inkling then perhaps that can be isolated to a timeline.

@Dyslexicon is there a reason you town read ilario beyond marriage? Can you point to or describe specific things that justify that view?

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 8:01 pm Yeah it’s all mildly frustrating

Do you believe it's more likely Sloonei was poisoned because he's Sloonei and was doing Work, or because he was seen as a watcher?

Somehow that's the only answer that feels like nothing is gained, but sure fine okay.

If anyone is going to be mechanically-oriented such that they pull the cover claim (and believe it's proper to do so), it'd be Tony. My first instinct would be that he's town.

We should probably put the word "obvious" in the bin.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 7:54 pm I’m furreal. I hyped up tony’s claim yesterday in hopes that he would be the poison target and make my life easier.

I pretty much treated him like confirmed town so he'd die yes guilty

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 7:52 pm Nah Dizzy doing it is very towny

what is your brain

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 7:51 pm Technically dizzy doing that is very wolfy

Tell me more TonyStarkPrime

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 7:50 pm I am at work and can't read the thread. Why is my claim being lol’d at?

Dizzy claimed soon before you and we spent a page talking about it just as you popped in.

I will admit that part of me wondered in the night if this'd be the time Sloonei finally makes me look like an idiot. But the beat goes on.

Marmot wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 7:46 pm JJJ is now speaking to himself in the first, second, and third person.

Maybe even the fourth person.

Sloonei tell me what to do

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 7:43 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 7:41 pm Wish the fruit vendor would just claim. At this point no matter who it is it helps.

They can wait for Johanna to react to Dizzy though.
Uh, I already kind of rescinded. Kind of lost my fire when Sloon claimed sorry

She might react before she sees that anyway.

Wish the fruit vendor would just claim. At this point no matter who it is it helps.

They can wait for Johanna to react to Dizzy though.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 7:36 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 7:35 pm I was thinking Son of Anarch might fit into the Sonny profile from the PerC crossover.
Sonny is my literal twin, so curious what you mean by this =p

Start really strong, get town reads, then from Day 2 onward slow down and fetter off until the early good graces are spent, get chopped, flip mafia.

I was thinking Son of Anarch might fit into the Sonny profile from the PerC crossover.

Who feels comfortable with naming four strong town reads? I'm not sure I do at this point, but that's less a reflection of the game state and more my own influence on the two misses. Four is an arbitrary number. If you have fewer or more, sure okay.

Marmot wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 7:30 pm Assuming Dizzy is the real watcher, it seems we're left at a point where we must yeet Johanna or G-Man today.

In that same word, knowing Tony's alignment would be really useful to help us discover how mafia may have operated Day 2. If Tony is town, mafia might've believed his claim and played somewhat carefully around Jo/G-Man. If Tony's mafia, then mafia most certainly operated under the impression that they weren't caught.

Part of me wonders if they push for the elimination of that mafioso (whichever one) to get ahead of it and minimize the utility of the watcher's actual reveal. Dunno, lots of speculation.

@Dyslexicon are you still entirely solid on ilario and Son of Anarch? My chief tinfoil is that they're both mafia.

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Wed Aug 04, 2021 5:41 pmtown sleepwalker (not informed they are the sleepwalker, randomly visits a player each night)

Just wanted to verify I had the role right. This is from the sign-up thread.

Sleepwalker randomly targets I believe. The chance of the sleepwalker landing on SPF on Night on is 1/13 (7.7%). I doubt it self-targets and sig was dead.

This doesn't mean G-Man is lying, but we should be mindful of the numbers.

My previous POE minus Lime Coke would be:

G-Man
Dolby
Son of Anarch
Johanna
falcon

If Dizzy's claim holds, G-Man and Johanna can't both be mafia. So maybe that's the team (one of them plus the other three). I won't bank on that since my reads so far haven't gotten us anywhere, but yanno.

~could be~

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