The Syndicate

My first instinct with Epi/Abigail is that they don't fit together. Epignosis has a long history of avoiding bussing, especially if it is unnecessary (and I don't believe Abigail had received votes until he showed up if I recall correctly). I welcome discussion on that, because it is the only thing Epi has done to this point apart from a blind Quin vote.

Abigail’s treatment of Michelle is a bit concerning. Discarding suspicion as “omgus” is not an argument.

Kate wrote: ↑Tue Aug 01, 2023 8:21 pm

Kate wrote: ↑Tue Aug 01, 2023 8:21 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Aug 01, 2023 6:43 pm

Kate wrote: ↑Tue Aug 01, 2023 6:41 pm I was very confident and VERY wrong on wilgy once. I still wake up screaming from the nightmares.

What makes that Abigail post "too coherent"?

When she is wolf, she's all over the place. I'm pretty sure I described her the exact opposite way in the last game.

*civ. Ebwob

Got it nevermind

Kate wrote: ↑Tue Aug 01, 2023 8:21 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Aug 01, 2023 6:43 pm

Kate wrote: ↑Tue Aug 01, 2023 6:41 pm I was very confident and VERY wrong on wilgy once. I still wake up screaming from the nightmares.

What makes that Abigail post "too coherent"?

When she is wolf, she's all over the place. I'm pretty sure I described her the exact opposite way in the last game.

I’m confused. How can she be both too coherent and also all over the place? Or did you mean “when she is town”?

Kate wrote: ↑Tue Aug 01, 2023 8:29 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Aug 01, 2023 8:27 pm I've become enlightened.

Team is:
Epi, Abigail
Epi, Kate
Wiml, Abigail
Wiml, Kate
Wilgy, Kate

Miss me wit dem @s

You know I'm very tempted to have you guys lynch me just so I could prove definitively that intuition is better than stats.

What does voting you out have to do with stats?

We have about 22 hours remaining in Day 1, which is plenty. However, we should remember that the deadline is somewhat early by usual standards, so if folks think that might pose a problem tomorrow, I suggest making this evening your big splash in the game.

Kate wrote: ↑Tue Aug 01, 2023 6:41 pm I was very confident and VERY wrong on wilgy once. I still wake up screaming from the nightmares.

What makes that Abigail post "too coherent"?

Kate wrote: ↑Tue Aug 01, 2023 6:34 pm However, I challenge you to see if day is 100% my slowest day.

I don't want to spend a ton of time on that, but I quickly scanned three of your town games to verify this.

Summer Sh*t - no
Cyberpunk - yes
Hotdog Fingers - sorta

Maybe it's true sometimes. Not always.

Wiml wrote: ↑Tue Aug 01, 2023 6:22 pm Wilgy looking pretty towny this page.

I agree, tentatively. I probably still call him POE, primarily in that this most recent insight is a duplicate of mine (which I do appreciate, but it's easier to post). But I don't think he's a priority for me right now.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Aug 01, 2023 6:15 pm Bro

I can't even comprehend my own thoughts rn. How did you do it?

They don’t give you a doctorate in psychology until you demonstrate that you can read minds.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Aug 01, 2023 6:11 pm It was when I read this that I thought that implied a dif. Not sure why exactly.

I think I find the confidence of Kate's tone to be incongruent with the material she is bringing into question. To find it suspicious is fine, but that was a bit much.

So we're left with either confident Kate is right or Kate is fake. Obviously confident Kate can be wrong too, but when I think about things in the broader POE it makes sense to think about a difference check.

Wiml wrote: ↑Tue Aug 01, 2023 6:02 pm I think there's still validity in noting that Kate has below average volume compared to her recent town games, I just wouldn't call it a smoking gun atm.

Nor would I.

Wiml wrote: ↑Tue Aug 01, 2023 5:57 pm I'd be interested in hearing your difference check read if you're up for explaining it?

Sure. It's not especially concrete, it's just a possible solution that fits nicely into the world I have imagined to this point. Kate is in my POE pool, and Abigail kind of hovers just outside it. Kate's recent assertive comment about Abigail being "too coherent" followed by a poll-tying vote doesn't strike me as the stuff of teammates, at least not those two specifically. So if they don't fit together, but one of them is mafia, then that aligns nicely with my broader view of the game.

It'd especially make sense for a Kate/Lime Coke theory, for example. That is getting too specific, but it's an expression of how it would seem to fit.

I do think being uninformed is a completely different beast. It's a lot easier to post when you have no clue.

Anyway, it's not worth dwelling on at this point. Kate is in my POE regardless of volume. I am considering Kate/Abigail as a difference check now (insert obligatory "or some softer version of that term").

Oh I see that's what you meant by "lost wolf"

I ask because the red names are explicitly called "mafia" and the purple ones are not. I had assumed them to be independents when I logged that game in the HOF.

Were the "purple" mafia in that deadly sins game an actual team, i.e., informed minority? I never figured out the details of that setup.

Wiml wrote: ↑Tue Aug 01, 2023 5:40 pm viewtopic.php?t=2532

There's also this game, where she averaged 115.5 as a wolf over two cycles. Not sure if it fits into however you're sampling the games but it seems recent enough to be valid to read into for what you're calculating.

Worth noting that both the game I linked and Scooby Doo Kate was apparently a lost wolf whereas Kate said she was ill with covid during Felt mafia further up this page. I think both of those things + the outlier result make sorting her by post count a lot less reliable to read into.

Thanks for bringing that out; I forgot to check full games (we just brought them back after a long hiatus). It's probably enough to just discard the notion.

Reminder to self to fix Sesame Street in the Hall of Fame stats. I misunderstood the alignments.

@☆Princess Abigail☆

Would you agree that, even if the "first three-vote wagon contains one mafioso in four names" theory is consistently accurate, that you fundamentally break it by causing the wagon to reach three votes yourself?

Kate's volume trends:

Currently
18 posts

Town
Cyberpunk - 114 posts, 2 cycles (57 per)
Sesame Street - 80 posts, 1 cycle (80 per)
Summer Sh*t - 275 posts, 2 cycles (138 per)
Muppet Babies - 98 posts, 1 cycle (98 per)
Hotdog Fingers - 360 posts, 6 cycles (60 per)
Lawyers, Guns, Money - 344 posts, 4 cycles (86 per)
Bad Dates - 107, 1.5 cycles (71 per) *replacement

Mafia
Felt Mafia 3 - 115 posts, 3 cycles (38 per)
Scooby Doo - 194 posts, 4 cycles (49 per)

I won't call this damning, because every game is circumstantial. But it should be noted that the lowest two post rates are the two mafia games, and this game is on a slow Kate rate. The above list is not comprehensive. I just grabbed a decent handful of what I could find on a quick review of the site Hall of Fame.

I'm very interested in knowing Abigail's read on Kate.

Here's a general caution that isn't quite relevant yet, but it may become so (and I may not last long enough to promote it when it counts):

I think the prevailing wisdom in a mountainous game with two mafia is that bussing is unlikely. I think this is quite false. Indeed, mountainous games might be the most friendly to bussing, because it cannot be punished by investigative mechanics. If someone flips mafia, don't flatly clear their wagon. That doesn't mean someone has already bussed or will definitely bus -- just give everything the proper due diligence. I also acknowledge that it's possible that mafia methodology might pivot on the basis of me even making this post, but I'm not really bothered. They still have to make the decisions they make.

Meaningless right now, but store this for a later time.

Epignosis might become my #5 as well at the current trajectory. I get it.

@Lime Coke could you put together a full reads list?

@Wiml you asked for another town link.

It looks like my last town game here was early 2022. I played like crap, but here you go: link. I don't think that's representative stylistically either, but we're dynamic creatures we humans.

@☆Princess Abigail☆ would you be able to put together a full list of reads? Rainbow or tiers or something like that would be super. Explanations only if you feel like it.

over-the-top

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Aug 01, 2023 1:35 pm I couldn't sleep so now I'm soupin instead. Will try to continue catching up now.

I hope DrWilgy doesn't discover that my role is vanilla so he can soup kill me.

Roxy giving a full reads list was a big help. We could use more of those from everyone when they have the chance.

Initial associations chart. I like to try to have one of these complete mid-Day 1 when I have the time. For those unfamiliar, the blocks represent my degree of confidence that two players are not compatible as mafia teammates (so if I assume one to be mafia, how confident am I that the other is not also mafia?).

Blue --> most confident dissociation
Green --> dissociations, with higher confidence in darker shades

This might be the most yellow chart I have ever produced, and that reflects my biggest concern about the present state of the game. We need to really get folks talking about everyone else. I don't mean flatly "more activity", I mean activity that directly contributes to interpreting associations and just making reads in general.

When I do these my preference is to try to find someone that can be cleared by lack of viable mafia associations, but that's impossible right now. I wouldn't clear a single player on that basis with a chart like this. But perhaps it helps anyway to begin framing a broader world view. If I consider names in my current POE pool:

Lime Coke
Kate
Quin
DrWilgy

They're all technically compatible, albeit with no team-indicative indicators, except a soft dissociation for Wilgy and Lime Coke (I tend to doubt that Wilgy defaults to sheeping exactly falcon on exactly LC if they're teamed). So that POE group is more or less internally consistent. There could easily be mafia outside that group of four, but associations don't seem to be a viable method of finding that person if so at this point. A number of people fit.

I need Quin.

Roxy wrote: ↑Tue Aug 01, 2023 12:43 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Aug 01, 2023 12:36 pm I think I am swapping Roxy and Kate in my reads list. Roxy seems town, and I think her concerns about Kate are justified.

you are creeping me out I do not mean this in a mean or perverse way. It's your flip flopping I had forgotten about it - until now

I’m definitely happy to flip and flop!

I sort of view the game as a puzzle and will often move around the pieces until I find the best fit.

Wiml wrote: ↑Tue Aug 01, 2023 12:39 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Aug 01, 2023 12:36 pm I think I am swapping Roxy and Kate in my reads list. Roxy seems town, and I think her concerns about Kate are justified.

I'd agree with this. Are you familiar with Roxy's wolf game at all?

Not particularly. I don’t believe we’ve played together since 2017ish or earlier.

I think I am swapping Roxy and Kate in my reads list. Roxy seems town, and I think her concerns about Kate are justified.

Perhaps a positive remark I can make about Wiml is that he seems to be approaching his read on me with similar caution to my own read on him. That’s a congruent solving mindset.

Wiml wrote: ↑Tue Aug 01, 2023 12:26 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Aug 01, 2023 2:41 am I like the general vibe of Lime Coke's posts and think he sounds fine. I hesitate to pull the town trigger, because the falcon vote is like a direct shot into my green pile. That doesn't make him mafia or even wrong, but it's something I have to reconcile.

What did you like about Lime's posts at this point in time?

In the most basic sense, he seemed loose and engaged. The “vibe” felt fine and unthreatening. It’s a small thing and didn’t move me much even then.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Aug 01, 2023 12:23 pm Good news, I'm finally town (thank God)

Bad news, I got covid and will probably not be around very much. We have any consensus townies for me to sheep this cycle?

Sorry Doc. That is ass.

The most consensus town read might be falcon. Maybe myself. It’s actually a little hard to tell, and we could stand to improve that as a group.

I’m having second thoughts about Kate. Dismissing “90% of big talkers as town” is not exactly an “intuition”, and it’s a read begging for egg on the face. I worry about it being TMI.

@Michelle could you describe what you like most about Kate?

I think Roxy seems okay.

Wiml wrote: ↑Tue Aug 01, 2023 5:46 am I might have missed over you talking about it but I'd appreciate your own opinion on Kate and Epi.

They're two players you probably know way better than I do.

I want to let Epignosis continue to do his thing a little bit before I expand on my perspective (for his sake).

As for Kate, I liked her explanation for her falcon read. I would like to see more though. The value of that moment will degrade with time in the absence of something else.

Also, I should say that I know Epi "well", in that I have played a ton of games with him -- but both he and I play much less often than we used to, so it's been a while. I don't actually know Kate that well. I have spectated some, but this might be our first game together.

If I try to provide a more concrete rainbow that isn't just dichotomized for a POE pool:

falcon45ca
Michelle
--
Kate
Epignosis
--
Abigail
Wiml
--
DrWilgy
Quin
Roxy
Lime Coke

Names are still not ordered within individual colors. In this case, the bottom four form a default "POE pool" that leaves room for one of the names above to drop back in if necessary. I will try not to get too absorbed into this world view (I acknowledge my rationale for each read isn't extremely thorough yet), but it's going to stagnate as long as the thread is dominated by a subset of high-activity posters. That's no slight on the folks that haven't gotten deeply involved yet; I understand time is a limited resource.

Michelle wrote: ↑Tue Aug 01, 2023 5:25 am

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Aug 01, 2023 4:46 am @Michelle do you still read falcon as town?

I wouldn't bet the game on it rn, but I wouldn't vote him either. I need more content from him.
Vibe test was good but it's not enough.

Pretty much exactly my view. Thanks.

I still think Abigail seems more town than not, just as a general impression of the ways she has received and answered suspicion.

☆Princess Abigail☆ wrote: ↑Tue Aug 01, 2023 5:22 am I can remember many

Let me go find them

https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/th ... ost7065338

https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/th ... ost7065348

https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/th ... ost7065633

Here is a progression that exactly mirrors my read here. I was wrong about DDS but very much right about the 1 in 4

I'm too lazy to go dig around FoL for games but if you want more I will find them

Thanks for finding an exact post. At the very least, you have established a precedent.

Lime Coke wrote: ↑Tue Aug 01, 2023 5:14 am I actually used that because you used it to describe my post and I though it was funny.

I just looked at it.

I think my thing was seeing him vote you and Michelle, mainly Michelle, and thinking it was bad.

Your townread on him I can maybe see from your POV with how he was reading you specifically.
Though I think the "Voting him until he creates a towncore" kind of just feels like a fake thing to use just to set a bar however high he wants and not give credit.

I'm back and forth on the read itself I'll have to see him a second go around.

Okay thanks. I'll give it a good proper thonk.

I can feel POE gravity pulling me towards "at least one mafioso exists in DrWilgy, Quin, and Roxy".

@Wiml do you have any reads on Kate and/or Epignosis?

Wiml wrote: ↑Tue Aug 01, 2023 5:12 am Is there a way to make the ISO feature work in the ascending direction without it breaking every time you try to change pages?

There's a way to tweak the URL to flip it right-side up (and I think it stays that way), but I always forget how to do it.