The Syndicate

If I had to finalize the next lynch right now I’d go with Luna.

dunya wrote: ↑Wed May 01, 2019 5:36 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed May 01, 2019 5:28 pm @dunya is it impossible that the lack of a Night 2 kill can be attributed to nova protecting me?
if you're bad, then yes.

if you're town, then no.

i'm working on eloh as i did spacedaisy, so please don't @ me a lot right now. i have limited time before end of night.

Any answer to that question about DDL would be much appreciated before you go this evening.

[mention]dunya[/mention], I’ll reiterate that this question is important to me:

How and when is a civilian DDL supposed to use his role?

[mention]dunya[/mention] is it impossible that the lack of a Night 2 kill can be attributed to nova protecting me?

On one hand I feel concern that I am still here and thus need to be more concerned about being in a pocket. On the other, I think nova may have prevented my death by jailing me on Night 2 when my niju curse failed.

dunya seems to to have some other theory for that failed kill. Dunno what.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Wed May 01, 2019 2:59 pm What's the pro-town case on Mata?

It's similar to the tone-and-feel nature of the pro-town case for Kites, but considerably more substantial. I love the effort she has given, her reads have always looked authentic to me, and her most recent motions against dunya just don't seem fake at all. Her Jack interactions were a tough call, so some belated feedback on that would be great.

Kites is the one I struggle most with. At face value I think he looks good. The end. I really don't feel much concern about any one of his posts. I just wish I could construct a better argument for him than that. I could even give him a standalone tier or have him join dunya and speedchuck. I dunno.

juliets
Spacedaisy

Long Con
Matahari

dunya
speedchuck

Kites
Neverwhere
Dragon D. Luffy

Elohcin
Lunalee

I don't normally like to break out the blue for these, but I wanted five easily distinguishable tiers.

I know my role is goofy, and its goofiness is magnified with leetic dead and civilian. I hope folks will consider though that I have been promoting my theory of the roles being irrelevant to alignment all game because I clicked on my rolecard and saw a civilian who curses people.

If that's my role and I am a mafioso, I have no reason to claim it when I did and also no reason to assume the game's roles are arranged this way. It makes more sense for the mafia -- cursing and role copping.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Wed May 01, 2019 2:49 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed May 01, 2019 2:46 pm
speedchuck wrote: ↑Wed May 01, 2019 2:42 pm Occam is our friend (except in the case of role-alignments, apparently)
It's not really a principle of logic despite so often being portrayed as one, so eh. This is why I rely on reads, not on ambiguous data.
JJJ, who would you actually Bank the game on them not being scum? Who would you look at right now and say "I'm willing to assume they are town and stake my win on that"?

I don't have very many of those, and it's worrisome. What is your REAL poe?

I feel very comfortable calling juliets and Spacedaisy civilians.
I feel pretty comfortable calling Matahari and Long Con civilians.

My "real" POE does not feature those four. I can also be tempted by you and dunya depending upon what I am looking at and what my mood is.

I don't care what Luna's role is. She looks bad.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Wed May 01, 2019 2:42 pm Occam is our friend (except in the case of role-alignments, apparently)

It's not really a principle of logic despite so often being portrayed as one, so eh. This is why I rely on reads, not on ambiguous data.

I just want to say that I trust Elohcin 0% and I don't give a damn about her emotional moment.

If there's one thing I don't do well in Mafia games, it's build a game theory around night actions. I seriously ignore that stuff as often as I acknowledge it.

nova can intend to protect dunya and end up blocking her kill as a result. Am I misunderstanding?

I’m unable to be involved at present. I just want to say one thing immediately:

I am aware, dunya, that many of the things I talked about can have civilian motives. I said that myself (that an equally huge post could be made for that argument). The point of what I did was to construct a case for you being a mafioso, one that reflected your full body of work.

I spent 90 minutes, in the middle of the night, during finals week, writing that post about you. If you believe I did that for my health, for appearances, for manipulation, or for opportunity instead of for putting evidence in front of tinfoil on a major civilian read (my posts can have civilian motives too), then please give me a break. I want the matter sorted out and with care. I don’t know your alignment, and that goes both ways. I’m not going to rally the banners against you based on that case. It isn’t certain or even close.

That’s why I want to know what everyone else thinks.

Is there a case against dunya?

I am experiencing tinfoil suspicion. Some others have said the same. In the absence of a case that is all just talk. So I am going to reassess her now in a thorough manner and see what I find and how it feels.

I will start with her interactions with Mac and Jack. I already did the former and thought it reflected well on dunya. I will look again and grade more harshly (i.e. it will take more to produce positive grades).

dunya and Mac

Spoiler: show

I liked this for dunya the first time around. I don't care now. It's WIFOM and means nothing to me either way.

Spoiler: show

I noted originally that in this case Mac could be trying to link me to dunya, as this accusation implies some kind of teammate relationship. That is perfectly applicable to a dunya who is Mac's teammate. Connecting oneself and one's teammates to the wrong people (in this case, me) is mafioso bread and butter.

Here Mac gives dunya a town read and supports one of her beefs with nova. I don't care about this.

Spoiler: show

Town credit for no reason. My initial take was that Mac was trying to pocket her. Could be. Could also just be a bullshit read on a teammate. Whatever.

Dark green in the rainbow list -- just follows from the previous point.

Spoiler: show

dunya questioned Mac about his read on her, and he responded with wise cracks. Doesn't indicate teammates to me. If it's distancing I wouldn't be surprised either.

They argue about niju a bit -- don't care

Spoiler: show

This exchange here probably endures as the best moment in the game for dunya in terms of her appearances. It'd make for creative distancing given the specificity of her gripe and the follow-through with the vote. I will note though that dunya's Mac vote was earlier in the day than most, and to my memory it did not generate a wagon. That came considerably later once numerous others engaged in the Mac dialogue. As such I carefully temper the credit.

Spoiler: show

dunya interrogated nutella for her reads, among which were placing Mac on notice. This can be called implicitly defensive of Mac, but that feels like reaching. Instead it's just incidental that he's here, and I not inclined to do much with it.

Spoiler: show

This one isn't my favorite.

Mac gets mentioned on a lengthy list of non-town reads. Means little.

dunya wrote: ↑Tue Apr 23, 2019 6:40 am MacDougall who are some of your town reads?

I liked this one initially given that it is what spawned Mac's town read on dunya (which she later used against him). That still remains the case. It isn't hard to believe that such a connection was incidental and that mafia dunya responded to mafia Mac's play without knowing what he would say. It's another layer that must be added to the case though. It's something.

Spoiler: show

dunya made this post during the late-Day 1 period when nutella was leading the poll. So it can be said that she maintained her posture against Mac, but also did not oppose the wagon that was [for the moment] set to mislynch in his stead. That doesn't have to make dunya evil, but the context is an important component of this analysis.

linking this because of the quote error -- dunya spoke with Daisy toward EOD (about 40 minutes out) to alleviate one of her doubts about a Mac vote. I appreciate that in isolation, as Daisy's vote ended up being an important one. I do wish dunya would have been more engaged in real-time as the Mac votes began to flow in beyond this one instance.

Spoiler: show

Could be called defensive if dunya anticipates people giving Mac a pass for being asleep. That feels like a reach to me.

Spoiler: show

She signed off with this. At this point the Mac wagon had swelled to what I believe was a 7-4 lead with 15 minutes remaining. She's on the right side of history, and that should not be discounted.

Conclusion:

The core question is this:

Would a mafia dunya have a viable alternative avenue to pursue here and would she have been comfortable pursuing it? The answer to the former ought to be a "yes" -- she had voiced suspicion of nutella, and nutella was the lead counterwagon. The answer to the latter is less clear and can only be inferred based upon what one thinks of her playstyle and personality. Do I think a mafia dunya would have been comfortable switching off of Mac and onto nutella in the late stage of the Day, counter to the anti-Mac momentum which had otherwise recently appeared? I don't necessarily think so.

The case can be made that dunya is a teammate of Mac. It is no slam dunk, but the case can be made.

dunya and Jack

I did not originally perform a teammate analysis for dunya and Jack. Time was limited and she was a strong civilian read, so I focused on perceived greater priorities. I'll do it now.

Jack gives me sarcasm | about my early exchange | with dunya -- he isn't giving reads on either of us, but just adding useless commentary. Means nothing to me.

Idle chatter about DDL -- don't care

Spoiler: show

Jack protests a dunya read on nutella. No read on dunya herself is stated or implied. Meh.

We got gifs -- and I don't care

Spoiler: show

Idle questions and blabber. Meh.

Jack gives dunya a rundown of spicygate -- don't care // They chatter about it for a while and it goes nowhere

More gifs -- whatever

Spoiler: show

More softballs and more nothing. Goodness this is boring.

I'm skipping a few jokes and shit here because who cares.

Spoiler: show

On Jack's rainbow, dunya was one step above me, and I was one step above Meh. So she was a light town read or something. Dunno why, because all the previous dialogue is freaking meaningless.

Spoiler: show

They might as well be thwacking each other on the back of the hands here. This is nothing. I have never been more bored by an interactive analysis in my life. I am skipping a decent amount of this manner of idle junk now. This post would never end otherwise.

Spoiler: show

Jack specifically named dunya and nova as people [in addition to Daisy] were "misrepresenting" his suspicions of juliets and Daisy. He suggested that this did not likely form the full mafia team, and as such it's a civilian-lean for dunya. Or something. It's another one of Jack's reads-that-isn't-a-read. One has to follow the implications when the words aren't present.

Spoiler: show

dunya asked a less-than-hardball (but not quite softball either) question of Jack and then compared him to his Community Mafia self (Jack didn't play in that game). She may have meant World Flags where Jack was a civilian.

This is all still Day 1, by the way. They communicate a crap load. I just wish it went somewhere.

Spoiler: show

Blah blah blah about niju. Snore.

I'm skipping Jack's posts after Long Con outed him. I will still consider dunya's posts at that point. Moving on to her stuff now not already mentioned.

Spoiler: show

dunya compared Jack to his World Flags civilian self on a few occasions. Each time there was a caveat -- this time related to trolling. Later related to his concern/lack thereof for a nightkill

dunya makes note of Jack dissociating DDL and I as mafia teammates. That's it. She made a note. No read.

Question mark | emojis -- dunya seemed bewildered by Jack at numerous points. I don't believe she took that anywhere.

Spoiler: show

Here's a goddamn stance. I think. Kind of. It's at least a clear statement of suspicion. dunya actually pointed at a thing Jack said and then criticized it. I've been sitting here for a half hour waiting for something like this to finally appear. Sweet Christ.

And yet I still don't know what to do with it. "moving jack down my rainbow" -- THERE IS NO RAINBOW. Jack went from I don't freaking know where on the non-existent rainbow list down to I don't freaking know where.

There was a No reasons to read as civilian list which did not include Jack.

Spoiler: show

dunya had at some point or another given Jack grief for reading speedchuck strongly civilian. She asked speedchuck about the same thing. Dunno if follow-ups exist.

Spoiler: show

I'll just note that this is where this post (previously linked) occurs chronologically. It is very hard to tell what dunya thinks of Jack or where he stands with her.

Spoiler: show

Okay. So as of Night 1, dunya included Jack among a list of her top six civilian reads. There is little clarity on why she feels this way. If it's only the World Flags comparison then that seems like b/s.

Spoiler: show

This was dunya's first reaction to Long Con outing Jack. It was kind of an obvious reaction, so it means little to me at this point. dunya was quick to dissuade notions of a bus -- again easy conclusions

dunya provided some interactions from Jack and implicated DDL and I as suspects to be his partner(s). The argument is pretty weak, stemming almost entirely from "you're poop" and Jack's early assertion that DDL and I are not both mafia. This is a point where I am likely to be biased given that I was her target. Judge for yourselves. She reinforced the DDL connection because Mac and Jack disagreed on him. I guess?

More

Spoiler: show

dunya was not receptive of Jack's attempts to escape Long Con's check. I think teammate support for Jack in this scenario would have been suicide, so whatever.

Spoiler: show

dunya asserted Jack was lying about his role, specifically that he hands out "life vests". Turns out, he didn't. He traded a protection pledge instead. Perhaps TMI on her part.

I'm going to stop there. What remains comes on Day 3 when Jack was a dead man walking.

Conclusion:

This interaction concerns me considerably more than dunya's interaction with Mac. dunya's read on Jack was a muddy mess for nearly their entire duration in the game together prior to his being outed. Jack's read on her was somehow even less clear than that. They interacted a ton and it went absolutely nowhere. I mean it is genuinely bizarre to me to have so many posts to talk about and so little to say.

Can dunya be Jack's teammate? Absolutely.

dunya at face value

I'm also going to spend a little time talking about dunya's general play and content without regard for her interactions with the dead mafia. It is more difficult to find important points here because her post history is quite large, so I instead have to operate on memory and a thorough-but-reasonable skim (it's 1:00 AM).

Spoiler: show

I'll return to this stuff first. It was the very first thing in this game that I hated. dunya committed two crimes here as I see it:

1) Snark my initial reads and discredit the fact that I made them (and thus discredited me by extension)
2) The highlighted portion is a load of shit. Tone reads can come from anything. We all do it every damned day in Mafia games. dunya gets tone reads from the most random crap that many other people never understand (often correctly too). nova knows what's up muh boyyy

dunya shades me for thinking there might be independents. I won't say anything about this other than: it's not hard to believe the mafia team knows as much about this entering the game as does the civilian team. So her accusation could have come from a dishonest place.

Spoiler: show

She got herself all situated to give me shit for my Day 1 Neverwhere vote, and then immediately abandoned it when I answered her with a bunch of pretty WIFOM. It was very easy to change her mind about that.

Spoiler: show

Still unclear on what this was about given the context in the moment. I was roleblocked on Night 2 (perhaps by nova, and perhaps also saved from a kill). If dunya has another theory, I don't remember it.

Spoiler: show

I never cared for dunya's gripe with DDL narrowing the poll. This is, to me, nonsense.

1) DDL has a roll. He can just use the damn thing or he can not use it.
2) Many people were suspicious of the low-activity pile. He made a poll out of them. Where is the "change of direction"?

What is DDL supposed to do with his role? When is the right time to use it, and who should he have included in his poll? I don't believe my questions were ever addressed. [mention]dunya[/mention], have a redundant tag -- this point is important to me.

I get some unexplained "meh" when I revealed my choice to curse nova. Again, someone is being shaded for the way they use their role -- no alternative usage is stated. What am I supposed to do with this thing?

~~~~~

General Conclusion:

There is obviously a lot to unpack here. That's what happens for a player with 440 posts and two dead mafia with a combined 380. To be clear: there are reasons to view dunya as a civilian. It isn't something that is hard to believe. If I wanted to, I could make an alternative massive post with that emphasis. The point here was to determine if a tinfoil suspicion of dunya can be translated into anything evidence-based beyond some worthless hunch.

So can it?

I'll say yes, it can.

Does dunya make sense as a teammate of MacDougall? Making this assertion requires some reaching and a little conspiracy theory. It isn't an outlandish or unbelievable thing though. I have seen weirder things, including from dunya herself.

Does dunya make sense as a teammate of Jackofhearts2005? She does. She makes a lot of sense as Jack's teammate. It isn't a reach, and it isn't a conspiracy theory. It is a genuine problem. She will need to answer for that shit.

Does dunya look like a mafioso at face value? Overall, I would say that she does not. That's why it takes a post this massive to suggest otherwise. That doesn't mean though that she has no posts that can be questioned. They're there. I highlighted a few that came to my memory (unsurprisingly, many of them related to me).

Now this isn't vague tinfoil trash. It's a case. I want to know what everyone else thinks of it, and what they think of dunya in general.

I'm building a huge post, so here have some hype.

It is against the law to enter this thread and fail to voice a read.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Tue Apr 30, 2019 10:21 pm
speedchuck wrote: ↑Tue Apr 30, 2019 8:20 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Apr 30, 2019 7:44 pm Also, unless y'all think Epi is boring and made a mafia team with both a post curser and a silencer, I guess I'm just a civilian then.

[VOTE: jaggedjimmyjay] aubergine

Do you find that post suspicious?

I think the primary source of my dunya tinfoil is that she and I are both alive -- not merely that she is still here, but that I am still here with her. I would expect to be dead by now in most other alignments.

It's possible nova jailed me Night 2 though when my action failed (and there was no kill).

We've largely forgotten Neverwhere. Here's a thing.

Neverwhere wrote: ↑Wed Apr 24, 2019 7:10 pm Okay I read like 6 pages and Its after midnight. I'm not going to be reading much further back because realistically I don't think I'll have time if I want to keep on top of new content.

JJJ reading greenish

Dunya I'm reading green

I'm not sure I understand elohs upset, so that gives me pause.

I want to go back and do some proper readings tomorrow on DDL and Njk...however you spell that one. I saw the two of them mentioned multiple times and want my own opinions.

I don't understand JJJs jump on me at the end of day 1. Out of all the inactives picking me seemed random as heck.

I will be around more after tomorrow hopefully.

Neverwhere, please reconcile the fact that the two highlighted bits exist in the same post.

juliets wrote: ↑Tue Apr 30, 2019 9:00 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Apr 30, 2019 8:55 pm
juliets wrote: ↑Tue Apr 30, 2019 8:52 pm Well, I have very few people I'm not rethinking.
Do you mean you're still focused on a few, or you're rethinking everyone except for a few?
I feel like I need to rethink everyone but a few. I don't want to say which ones are the few because that puts a target on their head tonight.

Cool.

[mention]speedchuck[/mention], would you be surprised to see Luna's role on the mafia team?

juliets wrote: ↑Tue Apr 30, 2019 8:52 pm Well, I have very few people I'm not rethinking.

Do you mean you're still focused on a few, or you're rethinking everyone except for a few?

I'll have to reassess much of my theory of the game. Without leetic on the mafia team things don't seem so simple. It can still be something predictable like DDL/Luna, but analysis is needed. I wish I had more time.

juliets wrote: ↑Tue Apr 30, 2019 8:33 pm Wait - what happened?

leetic/Dragomir was a civilian. The original role card was in error.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Tue Apr 30, 2019 8:26 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Apr 30, 2019 8:23 pm If I think there might be an error, I tell Epi that privately before I go celebrating with my annoying faces.
Using that tactic is something I might expect of you.

Pointing out that you wouldn't have used it, not so much.

It would be unsportsmanlike. I play to win, but only in ways that I perceive to be honorable. It would be shitty for a mafioso to jump on a host goof for personal gain, and I don't do that stuff.

If I think there might be an error, I tell Epi that privately before I go celebrating with my annoying

faces.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Tue Apr 30, 2019 8:20 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Apr 30, 2019 7:44 pm Also, unless y'all think Epi is boring and made a mafia team with both a post curser and a silencer, I guess I'm just a civilian then.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Tue Apr 30, 2019 8:18 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Apr 30, 2019 8:00 pm Uh. In the OP and dead player list, leetic/his role is showing as green.

Just in case that's in error: Epignosis
how did you find this

I look frequently at the dead player lists in games to update my perspectives of the numbers and to admire all of the red names. This time it wasn't red.

Don't sweat it by the way, Epi. Shit happens.

Alright then gang. We'll have to peel out of celebration mode and get the urgency up.

Well fuck.

Uh. In the OP and dead player list, leetic/his role is showing as green.

Just in case that's in error: [mention]Epignosis[/mention]

Also, unless y'all think Epi is boring and made a mafia team with both a post curser and a silencer, I guess I'm just a civilian then.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Tue Apr 30, 2019 7:34 pm Okay thank goodness.

Did you enjoy yourself?

Cool deal. That still sucks for you Dragomir. I would like to suggest that when the civilians win this game, the official "loss" be tallied to leetic instead of Dragomir. Host's call, and something for post-game.

[mention]Dragomir[/mention], regardless of your alignment, I am sorry for what has happened here if you do end up lynched. I'm not sure you knew what you were getting into. Regardless it's great to have you aboard and hopefully you join us again soon from the start of a game!

I legitimately feel bad to lynch the guy ten seconds after he joins the game. I still think that slot is the best choice though.

[mention]Dragomir[/mention] either way I appreciate that you've subbed in to this difficult situation. That takes guts.

Granted, there's no evidence that leetic ever used it which is okay enough I suppose.

Hi.

I have one concern with Dragomir's claim (which I figure is truly his role). Having my curse on the civilian side is one thing, but then adding another (silencing is essentially a curse) is a bit hard to swallow.

juliets wrote: ↑Tue Apr 30, 2019 4:17 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Apr 30, 2019 4:12 pm I will say that the "feels too easy" thing is not something I tend to care about. How is anyone going to defend leetic under the circumstances?
Kites just did.

So it's not too easy?

I understand the trepidation. I just don't think it's terribly logical.

I will say that the "feels too easy" thing is not something I tend to care about. How is anyone going to defend leetic under the circumstances?

Kites wrote: ↑Tue Apr 30, 2019 4:02 pm not gonna join the leetic lynch
i was okay with niju lynch but i had my doubts about it
this is similar case
i think leetic is genuinely too busy to play, and had the other more interesting game going on (so not mafia here) he would rather concentrate on

it just feels too easy

Who instead?

How about some contingencies:

Everyone tell me your next step forward in the event leetic flips civilian.

Matahari wrote: ↑Tue Apr 30, 2019 3:43 pm Are subrequests usually done in the thread now, instead of privately to the host?

Both are pretty commonplace. I'd generally do it in private first and then perhaps notify the players.

Does this in any way impact your perception of leetic?

If I can find a dang moment after this phase I hope to compile some thorough casing for various suspects to include tinfoil prospects. We need to keep this game alert and ready as best as we can.

novaselinenever wrote: ↑Sat Apr 27, 2019 6:14 pm Nova mind,

Leetic - no relaxed
Luna - relaxed
Neverwhere - no relaxed
Niju - no relaxed
Rey- relaxed

novaselinenever wrote: ↑Sat Apr 27, 2019 7:25 pm Luna - not relaxed

On Day 4, nova's take on Luna shifted across these two posts. To learn more about his suspicion of her, return to the first quote and then follow his ISO forward from that point until he died. I believe that his case was primarily a behavioral one, relating to Luna's posts (and not to night actions or the like).

Matahari and Kites entered this phase as players on the fringe -- possible POE candidates but not definitely. Where do people stand on them now? If they can be resolved, the suspect pool becomes considerably clearer.

I think Matahari looks quite genuine in her suspicion of dunya.

Kites's big vote tracker thing is a good shiny object, but not something that moves me (and he granted that much himself to his credit). I do still think he looks generally authentic though.

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