The Syndicate

dunya wrote: ↑Tue Dec 12, 2017 3:00 pm is speed Pico de Orizaba? but like, we won't be able to get sig or maybe nijuu to vote for you so who are you gonna take out with you? I'm not gonna test that theory.

If he is Oziraba then our best move is let him live to lylo so if we mislynch him we still have a 50% chance of winning.

I mean, what do you want me to do if lylo is actually me vs dunya vs nutella? Vote myself because the oher two are supposed to be "confirmed"?

If I get to lylo I'm considering both my lylo partners as potential baddies, no matter who they are.

dunya wrote: ↑Tue Dec 12, 2017 9:43 pm lmao @ nutella.

sorry, I just found it hilarious Kyle and DDL were still hypothesizing me as scum. Like, come on.

Day 9 and you want me not to hypothese someone?

Kylemii wrote: ↑Mon Dec 11, 2017 6:26 pm
dunya wrote: ↑Mon Dec 11, 2017 6:08 pm
Kylemii wrote: ↑Mon Dec 11, 2017 6:03 pm if dunya is mafia she's played in the most effort requiring way possible.

dunya was one of the first supporters of a Jay lynch until the day he actually was lynched during which she actually brought up some points supporting the possibility that we were seeing a civ Jay.

She also was against a Wilgy lynch for a lot of the game because of being under the impression that Wilgy was K2. She changed her position on this when thread discussion came to the conclusion that that was not true.

I don't remember exactly what dunya's position on Elohcin was early game but during and prior to the actual lynch of Eloh she was fairly anti Eloh

It's 100% possible that Dunya is mafia but only if she is playing in the most brazen way possible, involving drastically subverting pre-conceived notions of her own playstyle and supporting her teammates exactly when her other teammates were bussing them.
I'd like to point out I made a case against Jay, but we talk on a daily basis a lot and he had a very difficult exam and wasn't even talking to me like normal so I felt like he deserved to play a day after his exam and not lynch him on the eve of his hardest exam. That felt mean. He didn't ask us all to do that, I did it because I'm weak.

I also made a very early case on Wilgy and only dropped it after K2 missed a night phase which was the same time where Wilgy dropped off the face of the earth. I had reasons why Wilgy was bad and I argued with him about it and voted for him 2 day phases, but I won't lynch a possible K2 candidate.

I made a long case against Eloh which everyone told me I'm tinfoiling cos of Jay's reaction to Elo. That changed when Wilgy flipped, and I made a substantial extra case against her.

I think I have been on point apart from Jack (sorry Jack).
That's pretty much what I mean, if you were mafia then you've gone through the game defending and accusing your teammates at exactly the wrong times to accomplish keeping them alive or gently distancing from them.

all the dead mafios have so far done the exact opposite of that, a mafia containing dunya would mean that around day 2 the other 3 brought up the idea of "hey I think some of us should probably make cases against each other but not follow through on them super hard in case any of us die so we can disassociate from each other" and then dunya was just like ".....lol"

To be fair, there is such a thing as too much bussing. I lost a game as bad for that recently for that.

Kylemii wrote: ↑Mon Dec 11, 2017 6:03 pm if dunya is mafia she's played in the most effort requiring way possible.

dunya was one of the first supporters of a Jay lynch until the day he actually was lynched during which she actually brought up some points supporting the possibility that we were seeing a civ Jay.

She also was against a Wilgy lynch for a lot of the game because of being under the impression that Wilgy was K2. She changed her position on this when thread discussion came to the conclusion that that was not true.

I don't remember exactly what dunya's position on Elohcin was early game but during and prior to the actual lynch of Eloh she was fairly anti Eloh

It's 100% possible that Dunya is mafia but only if she is playing in the most brazen way possible, involving drastically subverting pre-conceived notions of her own playstyle and supporting her teammates exactly when her other teammates were bussing them.

I'll remember that for the possible DDL vs Dunya vs Nutella tinfoil showdown.

(plz mafia gods don't let it come to that)

I'm still catching up but I'm very leaning on "lynch the two inactives first". Sig and Blooper. We have a 11.11% chance of hitting scum and everyone who is active looks like town in many aspects. Meanwhile the last night kill failed. I don't want to go through another week of tinfoiling while a scum Sig sleeps on the wheel.

Let's move this to endgame. It will be more fun to tinfoil then. And more likely to work too.

You know the problem I have with this game is that at Day 9, it should be at endgame. Few players, few posts, not much room for theories. It helps because at this point I'm super burn out but also excited because it's at the end.

But here we are not at endgame. This is more like mid game. This thing could last till Day 12. There are 9 players, and half are talking a lot. So there is no endgame excitement to offset the 3 week burn out.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Tue Dec 12, 2017 3:50 pm
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Tue Dec 12, 2017 3:49 pm Why is Sig not being lynched by 100% of the people?

I wanted to go inactive this day but now you people will make me have to catch up...
I'll catch you up.

I'm trying to get lynched so that I can roleflip.
Dunya has built a case on Niju. If it's anything like her case on me it's probably a ton of confirmation bias. (kidding)

So you're either town gambiting like crazy or mafia betting everything on Wifom (which is gambiting like crazy).

Now you make me want to lynch you.

Or you're the 3P who is a jester.

dunya wrote: ↑Tue Dec 12, 2017 3:50 pm
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Tue Dec 12, 2017 3:49 pm Why is Sig not being lynched by 100% of the people?

I wanted to go inactive this day but now you people will make me have to catch up...
why are you trying to go inactive? do you want sloonei to come back from his grave and shake you?

I need to be a responsible human.

Why is Sig not being lynched by 100% of the people?

I wanted to go inactive this day but now you people will make me have to catch up...

dunya wrote: ↑Tue Dec 12, 2017 9:51 am
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Tue Dec 12, 2017 8:28 am Btw

What do you mean Sloonei was not KC?

My world is shattered forever.
Who is KC? You mean KFC?

K2

Btw

What do you mean Sloonei was not KC?

My world is shattered forever.

Although, we can also lynch 2 people, then Sig, and then we get to lynch 2 more people if it's not Sig. But in that case mafia can easily see we are pulling that strategy and start killing as soon as next night.

Ok so we have two options.

Lynch Sig now and if mafia is bluffing they get a kill and we have 3 days left to win this.

Don't lynch Sig so mafia can't kill anyone and we get to lynch everyone else first. The game may go until Day 15.

Honestly unless you can name four people you suspect more than Sig you should go for the second option. Otherwise why lynching others first?

*Sig*

dunya wrote: ↑Mon Dec 11, 2017 7:18 pm
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Mon Dec 11, 2017 7:05 pm
dunya wrote: ↑Mon Dec 11, 2017 6:55 pm
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Mon Dec 11, 2017 6:39 pm And/or the last 8 hours of Day 4 because shit happens.
what's your opinion on speedchuck?
Reading him as civ since the dawn of civilization.
why?

Well for starters the CFD on him that almost saved two baddies. And which the third baddie contributed to.

dunya wrote: ↑Mon Dec 11, 2017 6:55 pm
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Mon Dec 11, 2017 6:39 pm And/or the last 8 hours of Day 4 because shit happens.
what's your opinion on speedchuck?

Reading him as civ since the dawn of civilization.

And/or the last 8 hours of Day 4 because shit happens.

I don't think I would lie about that but that's because I'm a terrible liar so I avoid making difficult lies. It's not like I would avoind lieing if I were bad, though.

I appreciate the character evaluation, though.

dunya wrote: ↑Mon Dec 11, 2017 2:22 pm Honestly, that early post DDL did on not knowing Wilgy was playing---I don't think that was intentional scum Day 0 distancing. I think he genuinely searched for Wilgy at the Ws and didn't find him and made an oopsie. It takes a different level of evil to lie about things like that. and I've seen pictures of DDL. He has a kind face. Very sweet and soft eyes. An easy smile. He wouldn't fool us that way.

This game has gone on for too long.

She had recently wrote a big case on why Speed was bad.

Until Wilgy and Jay became the main wagons.

Then someone started a Speedchuck CFD.

And she joined it with the post I just quoted.

I mean... dude.

Honestly.

90% of why I'm voting Eloh is this post:

Elohcin wrote: ↑Sat Dec 02, 2017 12:26 am Look at me voting alongside sloonei, another suspicion of mine. This game is so crazy. Fun, but crazy.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Sun Dec 10, 2017 3:37 pm
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Sun Dec 10, 2017 3:35 pm Now, if Eloh flips good, then I dunno. That's a problem for Future DDL.
What kind of problem?

We suddenly have to lynch 2 people instead of 1.

Unless Marmot is allowing dead baddies to send actions for inactive teammates but I don't think so.

First we see the Eloh flip. If she flips bad we do the following:

We see if mafia kills or not.

If mafia kills, we ignore Sig forever.

If mafia doesn't kill, we speculate on whether to call the non-kill bluff and lynch Sig, or make this a long trek where the game goes to Day 17 and we probably end up lynching Sig anyway (you can guess what side i'm leaning on).

Now, if Eloh flips good, then I dunno. That's a problem for Future DDL.

dunya wrote: ↑Sun Dec 10, 2017 3:25 pm
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Sun Dec 10, 2017 3:24 pm
Kylemii wrote: ↑Sun Dec 10, 2017 3:21 pm if after today we voted for sig, ddl, quin, and nijuu in completely random order we'd still win even if we didn't land on the mafia til the last one.

though that would take 15 days to complete
Replace DDL for Kyle and I agree it's a perfect plan.
How sold are you on the Eloh lynch? If not Eloh, who would you lynch right now?

I'd probably go back to my Quin theory even though I'm not completely sure of it and it's long overdue for an ISO.

Basically I'm being a lazy ass today and waiting for the Eloh flip before making actual effort on my reads.

I mean. It's PoE. I don't wanna lynch Nutella, Dunya, or LC. Though a good theory could convince me on the last 2.

Kylemii wrote: ↑Sun Dec 10, 2017 3:21 pm if after today we voted for sig, ddl, quin, and nijuu in completely random order we'd still win even if we didn't land on the mafia til the last one.

though that would take 15 days to complete

Replace DDL for Kyle and I agree it's a perfect plan.

double teammate save*

speedchuck wrote: ↑Sun Dec 10, 2017 2:54 pm
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2017 10:34 pm
Elohcin wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2017 10:17 pm
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2017 7:51 pm
dunya wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2017 7:47 pm
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Nov 22, 2017 5:10 pm
Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Mon Nov 20, 2017 12:05 am @Long Con Lost Again 3 comes to mind. But whatever man. I don't feel the need to prove I can play a good scum game. Especially given the fact that I am not scum in this game.
That's exactly what Scumdaisy would say.
Since DrWilgy is here (hi! *wave)
Can you please elaborate more on this specifically as I have a mixed read on Daisy so far. I have never played with ScumDaisy before.
Nothing. I'm terrible at reading Daisy.
Um...this post screams scum, wilgy.
Still reading...
Interesting. This is based on what?

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Nov 29, 2017 12:44 pm Quick comment regarding the GTH exercise.

For everyokne that GTH'd me good. Why do you think I'm good? Under what scenarios do you find that I'm scummy? Would you say that you are mpre of a player that finds people innocent until proven guilty or guilty until proven innocent?

@elochin I'm still curious as to why you stated my comment about being able to read Daisy stuck out to you as scummy before my further explanation. What about that comment caused a scum read? Am I not allowed to be bad at reading someone?

@JoH, I'll get back to you. I've come to a point where I'm aware of my tunneling and I need to review others before I continue to bark at you. What I find interesting outside of our back and forth is your baddie read of me. What prompted this read exactly?

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Fri Dec 01, 2017 7:58 pm
Quin wrote: ↑Fri Dec 01, 2017 7:54 pm I am currently debating a vote for either Eloh or Kyle. Somebody talk to me about these people.
Talk to me.

Something about Eloh had held me ealier. She had stated that my exclamation about not being able to read Daisy felt super scummy, but immediately backed off. I couldn't tell if what I was saying was an actual scum tell of hers that I triggered or if she was looking for things to call scummy and pulled the trigger too soon. Did you read this? I kimda forgot until now.

Kyle... Kyle. I haven't interacted with Kyle directly I dont think. What has you mumbling is name late at night?

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Fri Dec 08, 2017 2:28 pm Elohcin -
Civ due to interactions with J3. While not a negative voting record I so far have had no harsh qualms with the results of her votes.
Bad due to interactions with me that I noticed earlier in the game. Eloh was playing catch up (like someone else who I won't mention) and had called me scummy for a single sentence regarding daisy. It stuck with me and still does.
Above is every post of Wilgy's that talks about Eloh.

REASON NUMBER #1 WHY I AM VOTING ELOH:

Look at this exchange. There has been only one meaningful interaction between the two all game. Eloh calls Wilgy scummy in a passive way. Apparently (I haven't ISO'd Eloh) she never came back and fleshed that out. Wilgy keeps bringing it up to keep the distance and include Eloh in his posts, but their interaction never goes anywhere.
Feels bad man.
Feels like distancing.
Feels awkward.
Feels like avoidance.
Feels like teammates.

Eloh, I'm voting you based on interactions with the scumfirms, even just from their side of things. I think you've played well this game, put in a lot of effort. I don't think I can narrow things down to POE yet, and I will never base an entire late game read on a D1 rainbow.

Even before Wilgy flipped, after I ISO'd him, I says to myself, I says "If wilgy is bad, Eloh is his teammate." When dunya tried to cinvince me to switch to Eloh, I said I was more sure on Wilgy but thought that Eloh and Wilgy were likely w/w, if Wilgy is scum. That still holds.

I have an even better reason.

If you believe Speedchuck is a civ, then Eloh's vote on him in Night 4 was the awkward teammate save of the year.

Yeah I get it.

It gets to the point where whatever mechanical explanation for her being bad is so unlikely, that even if you read her as bad based on posts you should assume it's more likely that your person reading skills are off.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Dec 09, 2017 9:37 pm Alright yeah I've been trying to find an explanation for nutella's day 1 survival that doesn't involve her being Everest and the best I come up with is that she's actually Olympus Mons and Everest is one of the inactives. But this still means she's not scum, so I guess I'm back to ruling her out.

I have serious doubts that any of LC, speedchuck, and kyle could be bad. dunya is town on volume alone. The DDL ISO I just attempted yielded nothing alarming. Quin has felt abundantly town for most of the game and I do not love any of the arguments I've seen against him this game.

Elohcin almost has to be bad by process of elimination. And then I am back to primarily suspecting sig and niju. Of the two, I think there is actual evidence for niju being bad, and actual evidence for sig being good. I've been trying to kick up any argument that would incriminate somebody other than the two inactives after Elohcin, but I can come up with nothing that I believe in at this time.

[mention]dunya[/mention]

dunya wrote: ↑Sun Dec 10, 2017 2:09 pm but who's been saying lynch Eloh as a POE?

I think Sloonei did? Maybe?

Kylemii wrote: ↑Sun Dec 10, 2017 1:48 pm
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Sun Dec 10, 2017 1:35 pm So... number of players is getting lower so I decided to finally bother speculating on why Nutella survived the lynch.

When did we decide the lynch wasn't stopped by Cristobal Colon? Or did I miss something?

Also Kyle or Eloh could be Everest. Though I guess they would have voiced a stronger tinfoil against Nutella at ths point if this was the case.
I assumed the lynch was stopped by the "ties on day 1 will result in a no lynch result" rule that Marmot told us about immediately following the lynch that we had never heard of before. Nutella is confirmed civ to me more because of the implication that it was a tie at all.

honestly I think this supports my theory that LC is space mountain and that my dreams are can tell the future, spending a ton of time designing a cool indie role only to have it die on the first lynch is a host's worst nightmare.

Ok so the prevailing theory is "host goof"

Well I'm willing to leave Nutella alive indefinitely then.

Elohcin wrote: ↑Sun Dec 10, 2017 9:14 am I think the sloon kill on this particular night should make you all reconsider lynching me. One of you said something like...eloh must be mafia "by process of elimination.". Are y'all really satisfied with that kind of lynch at this point? So...here we are... reasons for lynching eloh....
1) she is a busy gal and therefore does not participate intensely
2) her rainbow list on day one was odd
3) looking at the other players, she has to be bad by process of eliminatihon.

Seriously? You can't find anyone else with better reasons?

Process of elimination is like the best scumhunting method ever invented.

I'm a moron when it comes to figuring out people's roles so you should just leave me alone while I cry in a corner.

Ok I still think it's Sloonei but now I'm confus.

[mention]Marmot[/mention] if K2 sends a message the same night he dies does the message still appear?

So... number of players is getting lower so I decided to finally bother speculating on why Nutella survived the lynch.

When did we decide the lynch wasn't stopped by Cristobal Colon? Or did I miss something?

Also Kyle or Eloh could be Everest. Though I guess they would have voiced a stronger tinfoil against Nutella at ths point if this was the case.

Elohcin wrote: ↑Sat Dec 09, 2017 10:56 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Dec 09, 2017 10:33 pm
Elohcin wrote: ↑Sat Dec 09, 2017 10:31 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Dec 09, 2017 5:59 pm
Elohcin wrote: ↑Sat Dec 09, 2017 5:57 pm Have one more thing to say. Sloonei...I donthunk you're good. But I feelnlike you are really reaching with these last few posts/questions to me.
Is "donthunk" supposed to be "do think" or "don't think"?
Sorry... posted in a hurry. Do.
Thanks. What has changed in the last ~24 hours?
Nothing. I just said I though your "let's name the reasons why people arw civ" idea was silly. We're just saying, hey mafia...night kill this one! I thought your exercise would hinder, instead of help, civs. So...I called you out on it. I don't care who you are...if I feel I see something that isn't helping the civs find scum... I'm going to say something

I also thought you telling bloop not to qorry about reading the thread was a hindrance as well. How can ahw help hunt if ahw doesn't know what's going on.

Also, I never totally confirmed you as town, btw. I said that the thread has pretty much confirmed you town. You're the most trusted player, I think. Why would a mafia player attack a vocal player who isn't going to get lynched and had supported her in the game?

It wasn't silly. It helped Sloonei realize Wilgy was everyone's long forgotten non-civ read. Which in turn allowed him to lead the lynch on Wilgy.

If anything, I'll try to remember this method for the future because I loved it.

This is the second time you show comtempt for WIlgy's lynch. The first time was when you said it was just "luck". Your anti-civ status is showing.

nijuukyugou wrote: ↑Sun Dec 10, 2017 12:01 am Oh, it's going. Only jumping into a game with 134 pages of posts, NBD Yourself?

Honestly I don't think anyone is expecting you to read everything. We just want you to do something so that we can either lynch you without it feeling like a blind guess, or decide you are being town-like so mafia is forced to kill you.

Meanwhile, you can help however you can. Maybe read the last day phase, or the Jay and Wilgy lynch EoDs, or read nothing and stick to posts that happened after you joined. It's all cool.

Voting Eloh.

So... can I finally mention that Sloonei was obviously K2?

Kylemii wrote: ↑Sat Dec 09, 2017 9:19 pm
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Sat Dec 09, 2017 8:26 pm
Kylemii wrote: ↑Sat Dec 09, 2017 8:23 pm maybe the mafia will even decide not to send a kill tonight either so we think that nijuuk and sig are the last wolves 0:

that would be the best move I sure hope they don't do that
Well that's not unsportsman like and I've done a similar thing myself once.

My role was a jester who turned into a serial killer if he didn't get lynched day 1. I got lynched day 1 and won the game but another player used a revive on me with made me "unwin" the game so now I had to be a serial killer. I proceeded to spend the whole game without killing anyone so people would think I was still a jester. It was fun because I acted as scummy as possible for a full game. And then I won it again.
Oh my god that's beautiful, that's a wonderful story, can you link me to that game?

Starts in this page.

https://www.narutoforums.org/threads/20 ... t-57091402

Warning: This is an Aries game. Expect extreme disregard for game balance, host self insertions into gameplay, and megalomaniac narration that can make THE GAME look humble. Try not to let your impressionable infant brain be influenced by it.

quin - he is being very legit most of the time but could be a ploy to make us like him. And I buy Epi's theories.
kyle - I really don't like his voting pattern. I don't like his tone. But he is helping and I confess I havent looked closely to his interactions with scum (same for Quin)
sig - he has very little contribution so I havent formed or tried to form an opinion
ninju - why are you even asking this question? Divide 2 by the number of players you think may be scum and here is your chance of lynching scum ninja.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Dec 09, 2017 9:16 pm
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Sat Dec 09, 2017 9:14 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Dec 09, 2017 8:59 pm
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Sat Dec 09, 2017 8:30 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Dec 09, 2017 8:29 pm Who's bad?
one of Quin/Kyle/Sig/Blooper
which one?
For now Quin.
I don't think so.
why are you ruling out nutella?

Day 1 thing.

Well I'm not ruling out, but it's like extreme tinfoil scenario.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Dec 09, 2017 8:59 pm
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Sat Dec 09, 2017 8:30 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Dec 09, 2017 8:29 pm Who's bad?
one of Quin/Kyle/Sig/Blooper
which one?

For now Quin.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Dec 09, 2017 8:29 pm
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Sat Dec 09, 2017 8:26 pm
Kylemii wrote: ↑Sat Dec 09, 2017 8:23 pm maybe the mafia will even decide not to send a kill tonight either so we think that nijuuk and sig are the last wolves 0:

that would be the best move I sure hope they don't do that
Well that's not unsportsman like and I've done a similar thing myself once.

My role was a jester who turned into a serial killer if he didn't get lynched day 1. I got lynched day 1 and won the game but another player used a revive on me with made me "unwin" the game so now I had to be a serial killer. I proceeded to spend the whole game without killing anyone so people would think I was still a jester. It was fun because I acted as scummy as possible for a full game. And then I won it again.
Who's bad?

Eloh.

Then one of Quin/Kyle/Sig/Blooper

Kylemii wrote: ↑Sat Dec 09, 2017 8:23 pm maybe the mafia will even decide not to send a kill tonight either so we think that nijuuk and sig are the last wolves 0:

that would be the best move I sure hope they don't do that

Well that's not unsportsman like and I've done a similar thing myself once.

My role was a jester who turned into a serial killer if he didn't get lynched day 1. I got lynched day 1 and won the game but another player used a revive on me with made me "unwin" the game so now I had to be a serial killer. I proceeded to spend the whole game without killing anyone so people would think I was still a jester. It was fun because I acted as scummy as possible for a full game. And then I won it again.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Dec 09, 2017 7:56 pm
Kylemii wrote: ↑Sat Dec 09, 2017 7:54 pm If Eloh is mafia and dies leaving a solo mafia sig/nijuu, I don't think we'd see a night kill.
I think niju could at least select a name to submit a kill.

I like to believe a veteran player wouldn't be completely inactive and still come to send kills. It's unsportsmanlike.

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