The Syndicate

Swell game overall. I think there were a few rough patches with people adapting to the different headspace required for optimal play, but it was a fun kind of different.

I can't imagine trying to host using just a phone. Sorry if we beat you up too much over the lack of ISOs Nanook. You did a solid job otherwise, though formatting posts a hair differently would accentuate details like length of day and whatnot, but that's the way I do it. You do you and I will adapt in future games.

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sat May 01, 2021 10:21 pm Dead/spec chat: https://discord.gg/c2j88sGk

Mafia chat: https://discord.gg/rhg6ydxG

Invites are invalid. I was hoping Moghedien would share some thought process here, but I haven't seen it yet. I'll poach it from the baddie chat if I have to.


At the end of the day, I'd play something like this again. Having been through it once, I'd enjoy approaching it knowing what sort of worked in the first attempt and what sort of didn't.

hollowkatt wrote: ↑Sat May 01, 2021 10:28 pm

G-Man wrote: ↑Sat May 01, 2021 10:26 pm Sweet! I was finally right about something at the very end of it all!

Moghedien voting Marmot struck me as a naked WIFOM ploy to use against Daisy today. I wasn’t sure if Moghedien would kill me or Tony because we both seemed settled on chopping them next. Maybe my last few posts made me too obvious town. Moghedien could have strung another theory together to try one last time to make me look bad, but it was nice to avoid another round of LYLO pressure.

Way to pull it together in the end!

This is the first time I’ve ever derp-lynched a baddie. While it was successful, I don’t ever want to feel that foolish for not reading closely enough again.

G-Man you were great! It was super fun to play with you

Shucks! I had fun meeting and playing with you and other new-to-me folks too. I’m glad we mind-melded and weren’t opponents.

Sweet! I was finally right about something at the very end of it all!

Moghedien voting Marmot struck me as a naked WIFOM ploy to use against Daisy today. I wasn’t sure if Moghedien would kill me or Tony because we both seemed settled on chopping them next. Maybe my last few posts made me too obvious town. Moghedien could have strung another theory together to try one last time to make me look bad, but it was nice to avoid another round of LYLO pressure.

Way to pull it together in the end!

This is the first time I’ve ever derp-lynched a baddie. While it was successful, I don’t ever want to feel that foolish for not reading closely enough again.

Sort of annoying to be given 48 hours on this phase after a string of 24-hour phases. Not going to lie. But I didn’t read closely enough. Serves me right.

Shucky darn I think we just lost.

Shoot- I just looked at the poll closer- we had another 24 hours on this day!

Surprise twist- it’s Marmot & Tony and they’re hoping Moghedien doesn’t show up and vote so it ends in a tie they get to break.

Seems I forgot to actually vote.

Somebody has to vote first, so I’ll do it. Fingers crossed!

Still at work. Sorry this day was a dud for my participation.

I can check in here and there. I have a timer set for every 15 minutes or so.

I’m still leaning toward Marmot today. What’s the rest of the room thinking for their votes?

Marmot wrote: ↑Fri Apr 30, 2021 2:12 pm G-Man hasn't done any x's and +'s yet, I want my money back.

Sorry, not happening. Lunch break was devoted to just reading D1 and posting. I actually have a desk full of work to do today.

Marmot wrote: ↑Fri Apr 30, 2021 2:08 pm

G-Man wrote: ↑Fri Apr 30, 2021 2:04 pm

Marmot wrote: ↑Fri Apr 30, 2021 1:52 pm

Spoiler: show

G-Man wrote: ↑Sat Apr 24, 2021 3:38 pm Slight correction to my earlier assessment- the split between those whom I have experience with and those whom I do not is 8-8, not 7-9. Our host had Mongoose in the mention tag instead of Marmot and that’s what I used to build my lists:

Have Experience With:
G-Man
Kyle
LC
Mac
Made
Marmot
Tony
Wilgy

Stranger Danger:
Alison
Daisy
Falcon
Gavial
Hollowkat
Moghedien
Poison
Tim

I’m going four and four now instead of five and three. I’d volunteer for the LB, but I don’t want to be in there if both Mac and Alison are as well. I’d rather separate them for a phase, as they both seem pretty talkative and I don’t want my eyes to glaze over trying to keep up with them when a critical decision is at stake.

G-Man wrote: ↑Sat Apr 24, 2021 4:15 pm Scoring the thread to date gets me here:

Alison: xxxx+x
Daisy: xx+++
Falcon:
Gavial: x+
Hollowkat: xx++x
Moghedien: x+
Poison: x
Tim: +++++++++

G-Man:
Kylemii: xx
Long Con: x
Mac: x+
Made: +
Marmot: x+
Tony: x
Wilgy:

An x is bad and a + is good.

I do not trust Alison one bit in the LB. Perhaps I will learn to gloss over Alison’s bravado in time like I have for Mac, but I don’t trust anyone who talks all high and mighty of their skills. No one is a mafia god.

I am man-crushing all over Tim like I used to for Sloonei. We are on the same wavelength. We have to unlearn our mafia games because this is barely mafia at this stage. If we try to approach it the same way, we’ll get rolled.

G-Man wrote: ↑Sat Apr 24, 2021 4:32 pm Supper time is upon me and I don’t know if I will be around much after this. My votes:

[VOTE: Falcon
Hollowkat
Moghedien
Poison
G-Man
Kylemii
Mac
Made] aubergine

These are G-Man's only mentions of Made Day 1. I'm a little confused by this, why did you vote for Kyle and Made, @G-Man and not someone like TSP who only had an x?

Sure enough, I gave that x & + thing a hard look again to see where everyone stood D1 in my mind. On Day 1, I liked Made’s indifference to the Big Loud Three drama. I like his nonchalance because he keeps his composure better than I can even though I want to embody that ‘cool, whatever’ style. I voted Made because I thought a cooler head in the LB would be good. Turns out I was right about sending him to the LB but for a very wrong reason.

I've always imagined you being able to maintain a level head (as long as Golden isn't involved), have I been wrong about that?

So far as you can see in the thread perhaps. Behind the scenes, I usually turn into a basket case and try not to waste my personal time creating five different spreadsheets for an internet game. It usually leaks through, like the vote thing did this game.

Marmot wrote: ↑Fri Apr 30, 2021 1:52 pm

Spoiler: show

G-Man wrote: ↑Sat Apr 24, 2021 3:38 pm Slight correction to my earlier assessment- the split between those whom I have experience with and those whom I do not is 8-8, not 7-9. Our host had Mongoose in the mention tag instead of Marmot and that’s what I used to build my lists:

Have Experience With:
G-Man
Kyle
LC
Mac
Made
Marmot
Tony
Wilgy

Stranger Danger:
Alison
Daisy
Falcon
Gavial
Hollowkat
Moghedien
Poison
Tim

I’m going four and four now instead of five and three. I’d volunteer for the LB, but I don’t want to be in there if both Mac and Alison are as well. I’d rather separate them for a phase, as they both seem pretty talkative and I don’t want my eyes to glaze over trying to keep up with them when a critical decision is at stake.

G-Man wrote: ↑Sat Apr 24, 2021 4:15 pm Scoring the thread to date gets me here:

Alison: xxxx+x
Daisy: xx+++
Falcon:
Gavial: x+
Hollowkat: xx++x
Moghedien: x+
Poison: x
Tim: +++++++++

G-Man:
Kylemii: xx
Long Con: x
Mac: x+
Made: +
Marmot: x+
Tony: x
Wilgy:

An x is bad and a + is good.

I do not trust Alison one bit in the LB. Perhaps I will learn to gloss over Alison’s bravado in time like I have for Mac, but I don’t trust anyone who talks all high and mighty of their skills. No one is a mafia god.

I am man-crushing all over Tim like I used to for Sloonei. We are on the same wavelength. We have to unlearn our mafia games because this is barely mafia at this stage. If we try to approach it the same way, we’ll get rolled.

G-Man wrote: ↑Sat Apr 24, 2021 4:32 pm Supper time is upon me and I don’t know if I will be around much after this. My votes:

[VOTE: Falcon
Hollowkat
Moghedien
Poison
G-Man
Kylemii
Mac
Made] aubergine

These are G-Man's only mentions of Made Day 1. I'm a little confused by this, why did you vote for Kyle and Made, @G-Man and not someone like TSP who only had an x?

Sure enough, I gave that x & + thing a hard look again to see where everyone stood D1 in my mind. On Day 1, I liked Made’s indifference to the Big Loud Three drama. I like his nonchalance because he keeps his composure better than I can even though I want to embody that ‘cool, whatever’ style. I voted Made because I thought a cooler head in the LB would be good. Turns out I was right about sending him to the LB but for a very wrong reason.

So after re-reading Day 1 (aka the last time all of us were in the same room together), my suspicions from highest sus to lowest are:

Marmot
Moghedien
Tony
Daisy
G-Man


Marmot spends a fair amount of D1 in his whimsical ‘not taking this too seriously’ style but some of his responses are high on cheekiness quotient. He comes and goes, leaving stretches of time for the game to develop and then reacts to it upon his return. Of interesting note is that he pops back up in the last two hours and is fairly active throughout. Perhaps he was there to massage a few final votes for an 2-1 split. Made isn’t one to fear the LB, as he’s cool under pressure by default. Marmot isn’t one to get too worked up about a teammate getting sent down to the LB. He established enough sensible thought amidst his goofiness to be taken seriously. In other words, he’s flying just about an inch or two above the radar. That’s his comfort zone. In glossing through his ISO, he has a knack for showing up at just the right time to chime in when it’s advantageous. Kind of like what he did just now.

Moghedien entered the game with bright-eyed bushy-tailed optimism and a high desire to jump right into interactions. They are new to TS, and they got to state puzzlement at culture clash in terms of how we interact around here on D1. There may also be a time zone constraint with Moghedien. I saw a post where they were going to bed at 8:00 am EST. Where you at on the map? Moghedien is leaning hard on requiring back-and-forth interactions in bulk to make reads. Sure, the more you talk, the more a baddie risks slipping, but more talking from civs gives the baddies more ammo to twist a few things into a hunch into a case and into a mischop. Because it seems to be Moghedien’s nature to turn the cranks until the wine press yields the a-ha moment, I can see Moghedien as a civ who is desperate enough to solve the game that they start trying to shove square pegs into round holes and proclaim them triangles when they don’t fit. But it also seems like a baddie trying to force out a win in F5 rather than letting it go to F3. I suspect Moghedien is flailing about looking at how bad they can make everyone look in the hopes of duping just one person to go along with them.

Even playing the vote analysis game it seems very plausible. Moghedien was under the radar with sporadic participation, an apparent eagerness to drum up results, and the Big Loud Three making it hard to get a word in edgewise at times. Marmot and Moghedien laid down enough votes on slots 4-8 that it just kept Marmot out of the LB.

D2 Moghedien didn’t even vote and had four posts all phase. Marmot did what he needed to do to move the conversation along so his teammate could sit back and watch. It worked well and we paid the price for forgetting to pay attention to people who were talking the talk at the right times. D3, Kyle was already meh-looking, especially after avoiding the LB the day before. HK was ready to go down and lay the smack on the LB, so what are two baddies to do but grant that wish.

Of the two of them, I think I’d like to vote for Marmot first, then Moghedien tomorrow. I want to test Moghedien and see who they pick to try to setup as scapegoat in F3 and/or leave alive to try to dupe.

Thoughts?

Moghedien wrote: ↑Thu Apr 29, 2021 9:51 pm

G-Man wrote: ↑Thu Apr 29, 2021 8:04 pm

Moghedien wrote: ↑Thu Apr 29, 2021 7:46 pm @TonyStarkPrime and everyone else, did you all see the way Marmot tried to tie the votes yesterday? I couldn’t believe none of you talked about that last night.

The only person whose innocence I’m almost certain of is Daisy. At least one of either G-Man or TSP is deepwolfing, and then I think it’s clear from what Marmot tried to do yesterday that they are likely to be the last wolf.

Sure, I could be deepwolfing with all my freaky vote analysis. I did a lot of scenario building during Corrupt!?, but that was only at the end to help push us over the finish line. There's no point in working that hard for most of the game in a game where baddies could just as well kick back and let the speed of the game amplify the number of bad civvie decisions. That's clearly what they have done and I can't begrudge them that. It's a simple plan that works for fast games like this.

If Daisy is a baddie, fair enough, she can win, but she never gets away with the scatterbrained stuff with me again, even if it is her natural state of play.

I'm relieved that HK and Tim were both civvie, because that at least tells me that I can still mind-meld with right thinking in my advanced age.

My apologies to Kyle. I guess there's only room for one indifferent baddie like you and Made in this game.

So now we're down to the following possibilities:

1) Made-Daisy-Marmot
2) Made-Daisy-Moghedien
3) Made-Daisy-Tony
4) Made-Marmot-Moghedien
5) Made-Marmot-Tony
6) Made-Moghedien-Tony

There's a simple way to solve this- go back and read Day 1 knowing that everyone else is a civvie and see which of these combinations makes the most sense.

I don't like this post, and it makes me all the more certain about locking G-Man as a wolf and then either Marmot or TSP as his teammate.

First, the bolded sections are contradictory. G-Man basically says he'll just admit defeat if Daisy is guilty, but then he says that solving the game should be a simple matter of reassessing what happened on day 1. If he really believes that, then there's no reason why he should be so ready to concede to a potential wolf!Daisy. The stuff he said afterward about how he would take such a defeat as a lesson going forward seems especially disingenuous, or at least unhelpful. My point is that it doesn't seem like G-Man is really trying to solve this game. He says the game should be easy to solve, but then says Daisy may basically be unsolvable. As well, his focus on day 1 seems arbitrary. Why is day 1 so much more important than all the phases that came after? If G-Man actually revisits this point and draws any helpful conclusions from day 1, I will be shocked.

Second, G-Man's first paragraph here is a terrible attempt at defense. He references some past game of his, knowing that I haven't seen that game and I'm not going to go find it either. Then he says that he's put in too much "effort" in this game to be guilty, but that's ridiculous for a few reasons, most of all being that he hasn't put in that much effort. I think we can all agree that G-Man has been a neutral presence in this game, at best. Even if what G-Man said were true, him "trying hard" is not evidence of him being innocent. I certainly don't remember G-Man applying that "scum wouldn't try so hard" argument in defense of the many high-effort players who were executed, like Alison and Tim.

I think we can all agree that G-Man is grasping at straws throughout this post, but that's not even my problem. We're at LyLo, so everyone will be feeling a little desperate. My problem is that he seems disingenuous. If G-Man were innocent, I don't think he would be so dismissive or subordinate toward a theoretical wolf!Daisy, and I think everything he said about how he'll basically "never let her trick him again!" was just posturing. At least, what he said about how we basically have to accept Daisy doesn't match up with what he later said about how the game should be easily solvable. As well, I don't think G-Man actually sees anything especially crucial about day 1, and I doubt he will prove me wrong about that.

Sit down, pour yourself a drink, and enjoy while I tell you the tale of a man named NOPE!

It’s almost like you’re trying to force me to accept an invitation to spar with you. Not going to happen. I pounce when I feel like it.

I cannot wait to see how others respond to your post.

The thing about Daisy? That’s for me, not everyone. If she deepwolfed through the scatterbrain stuff, then that’s not something I’m going to solve (ever) without something damning popping up in the thread. As for future games, let me explain it this way: if you exhibit certain qualities while a civ, a player often tries to exhibit those same qualities as a baddie. Over time, everyone develops a few tells. The best players realize it and change their game up. If you do X, Y, and Z that play into your civ tell as a baddie, you trade those chips in forever and that civ tell gets nullified. It can’t be trusted as a civ tell anymore because your opponents got burned. If you think Daisy is civ because of the scatterbrained stuff, that’s fine. It may be an inherent quality to her. If she deepwolfs through that, then you can’t really say “Daisy is her usual scatterbrained civ self,” because she used it (intentionally or not) to deepwolf to maximum effect. It may not be a true baddie meta tell, but it goes in the meta file as something that got her far as a baddie and can no longer be trusted as a civvie tell. That’s what I’m saying here- if she’s been deepwolfing through a smokescreen of jumbled thoughts, then I have to put that in my permanent file for her.

I’m not literally saying that I will or we all should just give up if she’s one of the baddies. I’m just saying that, if she’s a baddie, then that’s a nut that I can’t normally crack and I have nothing to say to that but “dang, good game; I’ll be watching you from now on, you trickster.”

And if you can’t see why re-reading Day 1 can be crucial to solving the game, then I’m not gonna tell you, because that means I might be one step ahead of you.

Nighty night!

DaisyCloud wrote: ↑Thu Apr 29, 2021 8:32 pm g-man y u vote me? not cool bro

Setting you aside as a civvie felt right after your progression on Made. We'll see how it feels during my next read-through (who's ready for +'s and x's again?).

Of the six of us on the chopping block yesterday:

1) I know I am a civvie, so there's no need to be mopey and self-vote. I guess I could have offered myself as bait, but why? Even if I can't figure much out from my own content, I spew this kind of stuff out in case it gives anyone an a-ha moment that gives them a foothold that leads to something else that yields positive results. No G-Man vote necessary.

2) I vibed with HK earlier in the game, and my scenario thing showed me that it just didn't make sense for HK, as a possible baddie, to come down to the LB either with his teammate (Kyle) or to join a teammate already in the LB. It's an illogical strategy that the flip shows us was nonexistent. I couldn't fathom it, so no HK vote.

3) None of my "we have two baddies in the LB scenarios" involving Tony made sense. HK logic busted one of them, and a Tony-Tim or Tony-Kyle pairing just seemed silly because (save for bad timing), there should have been a way for either pairing to prevent Tony from going to the LB for N1.

That left me with Kyle (whom I was already predisposed to scum-read from his earlier play), Tim (who's flailing seemed panicky and desperate), and you. I could have left my third vote uncast, but I'm a man of principles and I spouted about the importance of using all our votes earlier. You weren't a serious vote, but you were what was left after my scenarios ruled out HK and Tony among the seven of us. I wasn't about to think up scenarios involving you because there was no time, and you seem incompatible with a Made-Tony team for the same reasons now that I think of it. If it's you and Tony, my goodness have you guys lucked out to the extreme!

Moghedien wrote: ↑Thu Apr 29, 2021 7:46 pm @TonyStarkPrime and everyone else, did you all see the way Marmot tried to tie the votes yesterday? I couldn’t believe none of you talked about that last night.

The only person whose innocence I’m almost certain of is Daisy. At least one of either G-Man or TSP is deepwolfing, and then I think it’s clear from what Marmot tried to do yesterday that they are likely to be the last wolf.

Sure, I could be deepwolfing with all my freaky vote analysis. I did a lot of scenario building during Corrupt!?, but that was only at the end to help push us over the finish line. There's no point in working that hard for most of the game in a game where baddies could just as well kick back and let the speed of the game amplify the number of bad civvie decisions. That's clearly what they have done and I can't begrudge them that. It's a simple plan that works for fast games like this.

If Daisy is a baddie, fair enough, she can win, but she never gets away with the scatterbrained stuff with me again, even if it is her natural state of play.

I'm relieved that HK and Tim were both civvie, because that at least tells me that I can still mind-meld with right thinking in my advanced age.

My apologies to Kyle. I guess there's only room for one indifferent baddie like you and Made in this game.

So now we're down to the following possibilities:

1) Made-Daisy-Marmot
2) Made-Daisy-Moghedien
3) Made-Daisy-Tony
4) Made-Marmot-Moghedien
5) Made-Marmot-Tony
6) Made-Moghedien-Tony

There's a simple way to solve this- go back and read Day 1 knowing that everyone else is a civvie and see which of these combinations makes the most sense.

Here we go again...

Someone is totally going to cause a tie at the last second for the third chop.




Who will it be?

Kylemii wrote: ↑Thu Apr 29, 2021 6:45 pm this is my legacy..... please keep it in mind for after i've been eliminated.

Spoiler: show

spoilered cus it's a little longer than i thought it would be, haha oops. good luck have fun you crazy kids <333

Sweet of you to imitate my signature, but flattery will get you nowhere.

The most believable scenario involving Tony and another LB partner is where he's teamed with Tim, but that's basically bad luck that was very avoidable in D1. In a world where Marmot and Moghedien don't exist, Tony isn't a baddie.

I struggle to see where HK is a baddie because if his other partner is in the LB, it makes no sense to give up a sure-fire F5 appearance just to help a struggling teammate or to screw with peoples' minds. If either of those are the truth, I'd love to hear more about it post-game.

That removes Tony and HK from my POE. But we're chopping three, so I guess Daisy it is. This has been a weird day.

[VOTE: Daisy] aubergine

Sheesh! How did we reach the point where HK and I are ties for third but Tony has zero votes? Should be an interesting read.

Setting votes down for Kyle and Tim. Their scenario is most plausible. Tony & Tim basically boils down to “holy hell, do you think we can manage to stretch this thing out for yet another day?”

I’ll catch up from where I left off with my last post.

[VOTE: Kyle
Tim] aubergine

So the tsunami of work busyness finally landed in my lap this afternoon. I will do the last scenario and vote before the deadline. I forgot that we have a kindergarten prep Zoom for my daughter tonight though, so I can’t guarantee much more involvement today.

Tim feels either desperate to sound rational or desperate to sound rational in order to take a deep teammate even deeper. Not sure which.

Sorry I couldn’t do better.

Spotlight on MADE-KYLE-TONY

D1 Made and Kyle overlap on five people. Made and Tony overlap on zero people. Kyle and Tony overlap on two people. Tony voted for Kyle. Made and Kyle voted for Tony. Neither Kyle nor Tony voted for Made.

Right here, I feel like stopping, because it seems to me that there should have been a way for votes to be shifted to prevent one of Tony or Made from heading to the LB. Neither Made nor Tony strike me in this game as ambitious enough to try to run the LB. That was the Big Loud Three’s modus operandi.

Are we to believe that two nonchalant baddies are just going to accept trying to nonchalant their way through the LB? Kyle is even a third nonchalant kind of player. It’s a stretch for me, but we’ll keep going.

N1, Tony votes around Made and Made only makes one vote. Tony seems safe thanks to the Big Loud Three being a juicy distraction. Made nonchalantly gets chopped and the baddies decide that a D1 noisy distraction merits a D2 noisy distraction, so they chop Poison via the tie-breaker. (By the way, I need to read Poison’s N1 ISO to see if the baddies may have felt threatened by her or just really hid behind Alison v Tim).

Kyle lucks out D2 while on his own and Tony lucks out N2 while on his own. Kyle can’t dodge the hear D3, so he acts resigned to his fate. Tony and Kyle may be in that “it was a good run” stage as well, as they can’t really take any big action without it standing out. It’s a case of putting forth just enough effort to convey that you’re sticking to your guns with the hopes that someone blinks and at least one of them makes it to F5 to dance some more.

I’m not inspired by this. It feels too anticlimactic, but not all games have to have a buzz-worthy solve.

Spotlight on MADE-KYLE-TIM

D1 you have Made, Kyle, and Tim all overlapping on Tim’s only two votes. Made and Kyle overlap on five people total. Kyle votes for 7 of the 8 sent to the LB. The only one he didn’t vote for? Made. Kyle got five votes D1, none of which were from Made or Tim. He ended the day one vote shy of being caught up in a tie-breaker for slots 4-8. Close call.

N1 Tim feels safe enough to vote for Made. Perhaps this is because Tim and Made wanted to keep Alison alive as a distraction. Tim already voted for Alison, so he can’t get Made off the chopping block. It’s more of an unfortunate reality than an agreed-to plan.

D2, Kyle gets a little hear but wins a reprieve when G-Man and the “slankers” get relegated. Tim doesn’t have to dance too much at all N2, as the appetite for Alison wins out, plus the LB crew gets snookered into dealing with Falcon and Wilgy.

D3, the easy times are over, as Kyle can’t shake the heat when he’s the worst-looking of the remaining WB4. He’s even resigned to his fate and self-votes.

So now in N3, it seems Kyle and Tim’s run is nearing its end. It was a good run, extended by lazy civ D2 and N2 decisions. Kyle’s stock hasn’t risen high enough to save his neck and questions remain about Tony being the last of the Big Loud Three.

This would make Tim’s proposal to chop him and the new guys (HK and Kyle) today a gambit. If it doesn’t work, oh well, they made a good run of it. If it works and only one of them gets chopped, it’s off to F5 for more dancing and mind games.

This is plausible in my head.

Supplement to my last scenario:

HK coming out so strong against Tim’s plan to chop HK, Kyle, and himself could be coming from a place where he realizes that Tony doesn’t have much of a chance to survive a F5.

I still struggle to see how HK’s relegation strengthens the baddie cause though.

hollowkatt wrote: ↑Thu Apr 29, 2021 12:03 pm

G-Man wrote: ↑Thu Apr 29, 2021 11:03 am Stop me if this sounds too crazy, but what if we just chop Daisy, Tim, and Tony?

Doing so would end the mystery of how many baddies were in the LB to start with. I’m the only one left from N2, and I’m being rightly civ-read by most I think.

If we find out for sure that Made was the only baddie N1, then we can re-read all the F5 for their subterfuge. It would mean 3v2 in a high-stakes LYLO and leave Kyle as low-hanging fruit based on the temperature of the room, but then we’d know for certain that two baddies made it to D3 in the WB. Otherwise we probably won’t find out until endgame or post-game.

If Made did have a N1 partner, we’ll chop them and then F5 is only 4v1, so we can afford to make one more mistake.

More scenarios later...

What happened to the teams I'm included in that makes you shift to Daisy/Tim/Tony?

Sometimes ideas just pop into your head and you have to get it out so you don’t lose it. I’m still working on cases, but it occurred to me that chopping Daisy, Tim, and Tony would once and for all end the mystery over how many baddies were in the LB N1.

I’m still inclined to just write Daisy off as a civvie, but knowing things for certain is a powerful draw and temptation.

Spotlight on MADE-HK-TONY

D1 Made and HK overlap four times, Made and Tony overlap zero times, and HK and Tony overlap three times. If that was an intentional spread, well done. If not, then they were willing to go uncoordinated and take it easy. If HK and Tony are teammates though, I would think they could find a way to keep Tony out of the LB. It seems unnecessary to send two down to the LB on D1 if you can avoid it.

N1 Tony doesn’t vote for Made and Made doesn’t vote for Tony. Tony isn’t super at risk for the chop, so they let Made die and break the tie in favor of Poison to keep Alison and Tim alive as a distraction turned up to 11.

D2, HK is content to send down a willing civvie (me) and some low-hanging fruit to provide Tony some cover and possibly buy him another day. Tony votes for all three in the N2 chop, which helps him avoid having to survive by tie-breaker, but he’s on thin ice, though not quite circling the drain.

So why does HK volunteer to come down to the LB D3? To save Tony so they can hit F5 as a 2v3? HK is probably positioned well enough to not need to do that. Does HK feel he can power through N3 and steer the civs to take out some preferred target? Why bother? Unless he felt stuck because he couldn’t build a strong enough case to send either Marmot or Moghedien down, I don’t see why baddie HK doesn’t just let Tony press his luck one more time unassisted.

This is the least-believable scenario yet in my mind.

Stop me if this sounds too crazy, but what if we just chop Daisy, Tim, and Tony?

Doing so would end the mystery of how many baddies were in the LB to start with. I’m the only one left from N2, and I’m being rightly civ-read by most I think.

If we find out for sure that Made was the only baddie N1, then we can re-read all the F5 for their subterfuge. It would mean 3v2 in a high-stakes LYLO and leave Kyle as low-hanging fruit based on the temperature of the room, but then we’d know for certain that two baddies made it to D3 in the WB.

If Made did have a N1 partner, we’ll chop them and then F5 is only 4v1, so we can afford to make one more mistake.

More scenarios later...

DaisyCloud wrote: ↑Thu Apr 29, 2021 10:09 am the thing about Kyle is it be similar to falcon and wilgy.

I'm curious to see the rest of Kyle's post on players. part 2.

thing about Tony is I think he is scum.

See, to me, Kyle’s play seems more comparable to Made’s than Falcon or Wilgy. What specifics can you point to that back up your read on Kyle?

DaisyCloud wrote: ↑Thu Apr 29, 2021 9:58 am I'm not voting g-man because it's not him. and im not voting myself.

I can see mafia doing the overlap on 7 votes scenario, because I played a game where mafia did that, just followed each other on votes. thing was for the most part they were all inexperienced in playing mafia. can't say that for any of the players here.

I don't think it's Kyle.

nothing about anything from hk makes me think it's them.

@G-Man was tim tied with anyone last round of vote knockouts?

if he was who was he tied with?

also, am I so smooth brained now that I'm not get how we should be playing this game at this point because:

Moghedien wrote: ↑Tue Apr 27, 2021 9:27 pm I feel bad that I couldn't come back before end of phase yesterday, but I'm going to rectify that mistake today by taking charge of things as best I can. For starters, I actually read the entire night phase this time.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Apr 27, 2021 6:15 pm send HK and Kyle down tomorrow

Alison wrote: ↑Mon Apr 26, 2021 8:04 pm

Timsup2nothin wrote: ↑Mon Apr 26, 2021 8:01 pm When you die at the end of the day if you flip town I will certainly never make it to end game and I'm fine with that...but if you are gonna flip town you should be EXTREMELY interested in taking a wolf with you. If you are right about me or not is irrelevant for now...pick someone else to go with you...I will do my best to send them along.

I think it's extremely clear that I think you're a wolf and I'm trying to take you with me.

Hollowkatt is my next in line if you want to know that. Tentatively I'd say the stuff about being pocketed by Marmot signals that Marmot is town being pocketed by wolf HK (and intentionally placed in the same category as Tim to imply they're both town together) because I struggle to believe that HK is swayed that hard by a simple mind meld.

DaisyCloud wrote: ↑Tue Apr 27, 2021 8:47 ammy towns: tim, gman, hk, Marmot

scums: falcon, wilgy, Kyle, Alison

idk: Tony, Mog

[VOTE: Hollowkatt] aubergine
[VOTE: Kylemii] aubergine

I think these are clearly the two we should send to the lower bracket today. I'm actually town reading Katt despite some of the night posters scum reading her, but I agree with what seems to be a nearly unanimous scum read on Kyle. I believe the last two wolves are among Kyle, TSP and Tim. Anything I say about Tim would just be beating Alison's dead horse at this point, but I have some quotes saved that I think incriminate TSP. I'll get into those a little later.

if you town read hk then why are u sending them down here?

at this point in the game the only people that should be sent down here is scums. you should keep all the townies up there.


why has no one noticed this or anything from Mog except me?


I would think that the priority for town in bracket 1 is send us scums because we are voting out towns. we don't need town voting town.

Seems like you have your POE settled then. If you know it’s not you, and you won’t vote for me, and you don’t think it’s Kyle, that leaves you with HK, Tim and Tony for the chop.

Where do you see Kyle’s civvieness shining through?

What sets HK and Kyle apart in your mind?

Also, Tim was not tied N2. He got one vote from Wilgy. Tim votes for all three that got chopped (Alison, Falcon, and Wilgy).

Spotlight on MADE-HK-TIM

In this scenario, D1 is a crapfest because the baddies get away with undervoting. Made only uses 5 votes, and one on teammate Tim to round out the Big Loud Three. Tim only votes for Mac and Alison and somehow gets away with it. Doing so allows him to put off forming opinions on anyone else until Mac v Alison is resolved. HK votes for several people, opting for the normal-looking route. Among HK’s votes is Tim, who is a sure thing for the LB, but not Made. Did Tim ask to go to the LB? I’ll try to look back if I have time.

N2, Made strangely only votes once and for Mac. I still don’t get it unless he was trying to keep his associations to a minimum. Tim votes for Made as a plan for cred in such a tight situation. Made gets chopped and they opt to break the tie between Poison, Alison, and Tim in secret this time. The baddies kill poison to keep Alison as a potential mischop after Alison v Mac blew up in her face. Tim must have thought he could get through it or the team could persevere because HK was well-placed as a more rational voice in the WB.

D2, HK goes along with sending me to the LB along with the trendy “slanker” squad of Falcon and Wilgy. It was almost too easy to both keep HK in the WB another day, leave Kyle as D3 bait, and send high-probability bait for mischops down to the LB.

N2 proves all too easy for Tim to navigate, as Alison relents on Thunderdoming and is mostly a non-factor. She didn’t even vote N2- what happened there? That leaves only Tim left from the Big Loud Three. Not a good position to be in.

D3, HK helps ensure that Kyle is relegated but also volunteers to head down to the LB himself. Why? Is it to try to act as reinforcement for Tim to get them both to F5? Or is it to take Tim on directly in order to build cred post-Tim-flip to position him as a leader in F5? Perhaps still it’s the fear that, if Tim somehow survives N3 by virtue of another triple mis-chop, that the remaining WB duo will come under fierce scrutiny?

I have a hard time believing that HK just volunteered to expose both remaining baddies to the chop. Maybe he’s just that confident in himself. If it’s going down this way because HK feels like it was too hard to get either Marmot or Moghedien into the LB tonight, I can see it, but I think HK could have maneuvered himself out of being relegated.

Spotlight on: MADE-HK-KYLE

In this potential trio, you have two somewhat indifferent players and someone who fits the game-solving mold. Made and Kyle had detached, go-with-the-flow attitudes about this weird little game. HK is hypothesizing but not death-tunneling turned up to 11 like Alison, Mac, and Tim were at the start. Compared to those three, HK comes off looking like a cooler head, which will garner more civ-reads from other players just out of sheer contrast.

To believe in this trio as the solve, you have to believe that two baddie teammates (HK and Kyle) would cast 7/8 votes for the same people. You also have to believe that Made and HK and Made overlapped on 4 people. This is very plausible given the number of votes and the temperature of the room Day 1. Made and Kyle overlapping on 5 is also plausible. Overlapping on 7 though? They had to have been really playing to the room there. AMT were loud enough D1 for that sort of skating to go unnoticed.

This would also mean that all three of them overlapped on 4 people: Alison, Tim, Tony, and Marmot. Alison and Tim are obvious choices. Tony and Marmot though? I mean, Tony is another sort of detached player. It seems odd for them all to vote there, but tripling up on Tony keeps Kyle from heading to the LB without the controversy of the baddies breaking the tie in secret. Had there been a D1 tie, there would have been much more focus on those who were spared. HK was not in danger of relegation, so this allowed them to expose just one hard-to-read teammate to the chop.

Night 1, Made is on his own and just can’t avoid getting chopped. He could have voted for any two (or all of) Alison, Poison, and Tim to create a 4- or 5-way tie for chops 2-4, from which he could have extricated himself. Perhaps he couldn’t do that without it being suspicious. Besides, letting Alison and Tim alive to Thunderdome again N2 would provide cover for his teammates.

Day 2, Kyle and HK find a willing civvie (me) to go down to the LB in me and push for the “slankers” to be dealt with. With Moghedien barely there, they succeed in sending three civs to the LB and wasting another night for us all.

That brings us to Day 3. Kyle’s play makes him the most likely to be relegated, and doesn’t spend much time fighting it. But why would HK accept relegation as well? Were they confident in their ability to steamroll the LB and both make it to F5? Was HK painted into a corner based on the temperature of the room for Marmot and Moghedien? I think a case for Moghedien could have worked, as their overall participation has been minimal and sporadic, though just solvey enough to get civ read by contrast.

HK enters N3 set on chopping Tony for sure. He presents an either/or on Kyle and Tim. Could this be setting up another Thunderdome? Tim has the misfortune of being the only death-tunneler remaining after Mac and Alison flipping civ. The third, HK says, is negotiable. Negotiable among whom? Everyone else or everyone else not Kyle & Tim? In the meantime, Kyle seems resigned to his fate, which allows him to not hunt much so as to not drop any accidental bread crumbs.

I struggle to see HK and Kyle thinking it’s their beat play to BOTH head to the LB. Doing so could lose them the game. Splitting up guarantees a F5 featuring one of them (HK most likely). After playing two days rather cool and letting things happen, why change gears and take on risk? I see this more as a “we have no other choice” play, but I think a case to send low-posting Moghedien down to the LB could have worked for them.

I can see this as a possibility, but man is it a head-scratcher of a strategy shift.

hollowkatt wrote: ↑Wed Apr 28, 2021 11:58 pm

G-Man wrote: ↑Wed Apr 28, 2021 11:08 pm

hollowkatt wrote: ↑Wed Apr 28, 2021 10:38 pm @G-Man What does your reading of the thread tell you about where/who wolves are? Like put aside the vote data for a hot second and lets just talk about reads and how you're feeling about things.
We've got about 24 hours or so to figure this out and I'd like to get as much data and information into teh thread as I can.

@Timsup2nothin did you see my post about the players in the WB and why I read them the way I do? Do you have any disagreements or issues with that?

Simply put, we have to assume there are two baddies here among the six of us. That means the POE starts at five, because I'm not mafia. After reading Daisy's progression on Made, I feel that I can remove her from the POE. That leaves Tim as the only possible busser of Made on Night 1 who also voted to ensure the biggest death-tunnel threats were on or near the chopping block; or Tony was the teammate who didn't use all his votes, avoided his partner, and opted to not break the tie for Chop #4 in the poll.

If it's Tim AND Tony, then sacrificing one of their own helps them avoid additional scrutiny and prevents the WB folks from barging in N2 with the goal to chop only LB folks. Throw a bone to the civvies because you can keep Alison around as a distraction for another night and an easy mis-chop post-Mac-flip.

I need to re-read Kyle's ISO in light of all the civvie flips. I was meh on him D1, and I would have probably advocated for him coming down for N2 instead of Wilgy but I didn't have time and I don't know if I could have persuaded enough people. Moghedien didn't vote at all D2, which makes them more sus in my book than Marmot, even though I know that Marmot can be a sneaky evil mountain rat. Gun-to-head, I'm content chopping Kyle based on outdated information.

HK- we mind-melded a little bit earlier in the game when it came to strategy and that clouded my perception of you through D2 and part of D3. I want to believe you are a civvie, but I have to be willing to waffle on you now just as I've come to waffle on Tim. I understand your frustration about the data crunching. Sadly, I have a tendency to start things and fail to se them through per my initial vision. I'm big on ideas but I struggle in the execution of those ideas.

So yeah, I'll be spending some time tomorrow ISOing the four of you. Today, I'm content to lose to Daisy is she's snookered me. If I can find the time, I'm going to work up scenarios involving pairings, assuming we have both remaining baddies in the LB right now. Taking me and Daisy out of the equation, that means wrapping my head around teams consisting of:

Made-HK-Kyle
Made-HK-Tim
Made-HK-Tony
Made-Kyle-Tim
Made-Kyle-Tony
Made-Tim-Tony

For now though, it's 11:00 pm for me, and I'm an old man trapped in the body of a late-30-something. Good night.

I'll have more to say about this tomorrow I'm sure but I assume from this post you're clearing Marmot and Mogh? Or are you just focusing on who's here b/c those are the only people you can reasonably expect to solve today?

Solvable people only. No matter what, there will be three chops today, so I want to try to paint a picture of the best case scenario, in which we chop both remaining baddies. We know that one civvie is going to die. I prefer the mindset of voting for the worst-looking possible teammates rather than just the three who I civ-read the least.

If it’s Marmot and Moghedien, I don’t think we’re going to win this game. But I can’t do anything about either of them until we switch to taking things one person at a time.

hollowkatt wrote: ↑Wed Apr 28, 2021 10:38 pm @G-Man What does your reading of the thread tell you about where/who wolves are? Like put aside the vote data for a hot second and lets just talk about reads and how you're feeling about things.
We've got about 24 hours or so to figure this out and I'd like to get as much data and information into teh thread as I can.

@Timsup2nothin did you see my post about the players in the WB and why I read them the way I do? Do you have any disagreements or issues with that?

Simply put, we have to assume there are two baddies here among the six of us. That means the POE starts at five, because I'm not mafia. After reading Daisy's progression on Made, I feel that I can remove her from the POE. That leaves Tim as the only possible busser of Made on Night 1 who also voted to ensure the biggest death-tunnel threats were on or near the chopping block; or Tony was the teammate who didn't use all his votes, avoided his partner, and opted to not break the tie for Chop #4 in the poll.

If it's Tim AND Tony, then sacrificing one of their own helps them avoid additional scrutiny and prevents the WB folks from barging in N2 with the goal to chop only LB folks. Throw a bone to the civvies because you can keep Alison around as a distraction for another night and an easy mis-chop post-Mac-flip.

I need to re-read Kyle's ISO in light of all the civvie flips. I was meh on him D1, and I would have probably advocated for him coming down for N2 instead of Wilgy but I didn't have time and I don't know if I could have persuaded enough people. Moghedien didn't vote at all D2, which makes them more sus in my book than Marmot, even though I know that Marmot can be a sneaky evil mountain rat. Gun-to-head, I'm content chopping Kyle based on outdated information.

HK- we mind-melded a little bit earlier in the game when it came to strategy and that clouded my perception of you through D2 and part of D3. I want to believe you are a civvie, but I have to be willing to waffle on you now just as I've come to waffle on Tim. I understand your frustration about the data crunching. Sadly, I have a tendency to start things and fail to se them through per my initial vision. I'm big on ideas but I struggle in the execution of those ideas.

So yeah, I'll be spending some time tomorrow ISOing the four of you. Today, I'm content to lose to Daisy is she's snookered me. If I can find the time, I'm going to work up scenarios involving pairings, assuming we have both remaining baddies in the LB right now. Taking me and Daisy out of the equation, that means wrapping my head around teams consisting of:

Made-HK-Kyle
Made-HK-Tim
Made-HK-Tony
Made-Kyle-Tim
Made-Kyle-Tony
Made-Tim-Tony

For now though, it's 11:00 pm for me, and I'm an old man trapped in the body of a late-30-something. Good night.

hollowkatt wrote: ↑Tue Apr 27, 2021 10:03 pm

Moghedien wrote: ↑Tue Apr 27, 2021 9:52 pm

hollowkatt wrote: ↑Tue Apr 27, 2021 9:50 pm @Moghedien what's the most townie thing you've done?

I'm not sure exactly how you would qualify this, but I helped send Made to the Losers Bracket. That's more than you or Kyle can say.

I'm not accusing you of being a wolf, I'm trying to understand how we've gotten ourselves into this situation. Asking someone what's the most townie thing they've done can catch wolves out b/c they're not really expecting it and therefore don't have an answer prepared.
I think you're town, I think Marmot is town. Kyle I'm not sold on.
I thought Tim was town up till seeing the flips today, now I'm not sure about that read at all.

I also don't think TSP is town.

I like G-Man for town for sure, and think that it's likely that Daisy is town too.

In list form:

Townies:
HK
Mogh
Marmot
Daisy
G-Man

Not Townies
Tim
Kyle
TSP

I worry if I'm misclearing Daisy the most, then you, then marmot, then g-man.
I worry about Daisy b/c I have a hard time separating out what's legit in her posts and what's native AtE. Not saying she weaponizes AtE but that it's kind of an inherent part of her play style.
I worry that I've miscleared you because while I agree with a lot of what you're saying and you did help send Made to LB that isn't clearing in and of itself except that if you DID send Made down you had help sending him and even then you don't know they actually chop him so yeah, no, you're good.

If I'm misclearing Marmot it's entirely on feels and melding and that's my bad then. What do you think of Marmot?

G-Man I have an incredibly hard time buying as a wolf. he's just been right on things

Seeing that pink part caught me off my guard today. That second sentence is pretty important to me. If you're a civvie, I will be amused, because you don't know how much I struggle to form reads on people yet because this is our first game together. If you are a baddie, that sentence reads to me like you're rubbing my face in the fact that I haven't been right about much at all even though I've shown my civvie nature through all the other wonky effort I've thrown out there.

If it's the former, LOL. If it's the latter, I won't forget it.

Somehow we managed to leave the only other two players who voted for Made on Day 1 in the WB. We can't sort a possible Made-bussing out until endgame. Oof.

Tim and Daisy voted for Made N1. I can't find a vote tag in Tim's ISO, and he only had a few short interactions with Made a few hours before the vote. Daisy didn't mention Made much during Night 1, but she ended up voting for him. He made it into her POE by virtue of civ-reading other people. After she checked Made's ISO, she was more comfortable voting there because his posts seemed (correctly) to be fluff. Of the two who voted for Made N1, I civ-read Daisy more.


Gavial was pretty sensible and correct about a number of things. Here's what he thought of the original WB:

Gavial wrote: ↑Sat Apr 24, 2021 10:38 pm Also if I had to take a gut gamble and if we assume scum is playing well and 2 scum consist within the Winner’s bracket.
Here’s where I’m at:
Winners Bracket

Marmot - Def Town
Kyle - Prob Town
Hollow - Gut Scum
G-Man - Prob Town
Wilgy - Null Slight Leany Villager
Mog - Gut Scum
Falcon - Def Town

Vote data time! I made myself green, because I know I'm town and you have to have a tin foil IV drip to think otherwise.

DAY 1 VOTES:

ALISON (11): Alison, Gavial, hollowkat, Kyle, Long Con, MacDougall, Made, Marmot, Moghedien, Poison, Tim

MACDOUGALL (10): Alison, G-Man, Gavial, Kyle, Lon Con, Made, Marmot, Moghedien, Poison, Tim

TIM (7): Alison, Gavial, hollowkat, Kyle, Long Con, Made, Moghedien

DAISY (6): Alison, hollowkat, Kyle, Long Con, Moghedien, Tony

GAVIAL (6): Daisy, hollowkat, Kyle, Long Con, MacDougall, Moghedien

MADE (6): G-Man, Gavial, Long Con, MacDougall, Marmot, Moghedien

POISON (6): G-Man, Gavial, hollowkat, Kyle, MacDougall, Tony

TONY (6): hollowkat, Kyle, Long Con, Made, Marmot, Mohegdien

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

KYLE (5): G-Man, Gavial, MacDougall, Marmot, Tony

MARMOT (5): hollowkat, Kyle, MacDougall, Made, Marmot

FALCON (4): G-Man, Long Con, MacDougall, Tony

G-MAN (4): G-Man, Gavial, Mohegdien, Tony

WILGY (4): Gavial, hollowkat, Marmot, Tony

MOHEGDIEN (3): Daisy, G-Man, Long Con

HOLLOWKAT (2): Daisy, G-Man

LONG CON (2): MacDougall, Tony




*********************************************************************************************



NIGHT 1 VOTES:

MACDOUGALL (5): Daisy, Gavial, Made, Poison, Tim

GAVIAL (4): MacDougall, Poison, Tim, Tony

MADE (4): Daisy, MacDougall, Poison, Tim

POISON* (3): Gavial, MacDougall, Tony

--------------------------------------------

ALISON (3): Daisy, Gavial, Tim

TIM (3): Alison, Gavial, MacDougall

TONY (2): Daisy, Poison

DAISY (0)




*********************************************************************************************


DAY 2 VOTES:

G-MAN (5): Falcon, G-Man, Kyle, Marmot, Wilgy

FALCON (4): G-Man, hollowkat, Kyle, Wilgy

WILGY (4): G-Man, hollowkat, Kyle, Marmot

--------------------------------------------

KYLE (2): Falcon, Wilgy

MOGHEDIEN (1): Falcon

HOLLOWKAT (0)

MARMOT (0)




*********************************************************************************************


NIGHT 2 VOTES:

ALISON (5): Daisy, Falcon, G-Man, Tim, Tony

FALCON (5): Daisy, G-Man, Tim, Tony, Wilgy

WILGY (3): Falcon, Tim, Tony

--------------------------------------------

TONY (2): G-Man, Wilgy

DAISY (1): Falcon

TIM (1): Wilgy

G-MAN (0)




*********************************************************************************************


DAY 3 VOTES:

KYLE (3): hollowkat, Kyle, Moghedien

HOLLOWKAT (2): hollowkat, Moghedien

--------------------------------------------

MARMOT (1): Kyle

MOGHEDIEN (0)


@Timsup2nothin- Why did you only cast 2 of your allotted 8 votes on Day 1?

@DaisyCloud- What do you think of HK and Moghedien (your only D1 votes remaining) at this stage of the game?

HK, Kyle, and Moghedien have their names all over the D1 LB folks. In fact, HK and Kyle voted similarly 7 of 8 times. Mog & Kyle voted similarly 6 of 8. Mog & HK only 5 of 8. I need to go back through their ISOs and look at their reasons for those D1 votes. At first glance, more information can be gleaned from chopping WB folks, but we have to play chicken with LYLO to actually get all the info, which could lose us the game.

Based on the fact that Tim only voted 2/8 D1, Tony's 7 votes include 4 on confirmed town and 1 on me, plus one on Daisy & Kyle, means we won't learn a whole lot from their chops. Daisy voted 3/8- one for a confirmed civ, and two who were low on most folks' radars- one we can chop today, and one that cant. Not much to learn about Daisy there either.

I had high hopes for my colorful vote scrutiny, but it looks like I was being mostly a derp on that front. If we chop a baddie today, we might be able to squeeze something out of the vote data, but it won't be as bountiful as I had hoped.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Apr 27, 2021 6:58 pm no I'm not chopping tim

Swell. I was testing you.

Sixty seconds...

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Apr 27, 2021 6:56 pm tim just doesn't want me to prep a legacy

Switch your Wilgy vote and my Tony vote to Tim at the last second?

Timsup2nothin wrote: ↑Tue Apr 27, 2021 6:55 pm I pinged her

So what? Pings are only useful in a pinch if the player is logged in.

Timsup2nothin wrote: ↑Tue Apr 27, 2021 6:55 pm

G-Man wrote: ↑Tue Apr 27, 2021 6:54 pm So Tim, why do you vote Tony and Wilgy, but not Falcon? What's holding you back?

I am moving a vote to Falcon to break the tie...but I wanna see Daisy vote

She already used two of her votes. Do you expect her back?

So Tim, why do you vote Tony and Wilgy, but not Falcon? What's holding you back?

Several people failed to utilize their full allocation of votes. It's sad.

Stopping to eat dinner. In case I don't make it back before the deadline, my votes are:

[VOTE: Alison
Falcon
Tony] aubergine

That's what I was sent here to do initially. We'll see if I change that up.

Some quick observations:

1) If we had two baddies in the LB last night and Made got bussed for cred, then his teammate is either Daisy or Tim. Neither Daisy nor Tim voted for Made on Day 1.

2) If we had two baddies in the LB last night, and Made wasn't bussed for cred, then his teammate is one of Alison or Tony. Neither Alison nor Tony voted for Made Day 1.

3) If Made was the only baddie in the LB Night 1, then he could have been bussed by G-Man, Marmot, and/or Moghedien. I am the only current living member of the LB who voted for Made Day 1.

4) Made was in a 4-way tie for 5th place on Day 1. If he had teammates on his train, they could have dropped their votes to Kyle or Marmot to move Made out of the LB. I could have moved my vote to Marmot only, as I had already voted for Kyle. Marmot could not have moved his vote to switch Made out, as he had already voted for himself and Kyle. Moghedien could have switched their vote to either Kyle or Marmot but did not.

5) Made could have switched a vote or even added a vote to Kyle in order to make it a five-way tie and let the mafia break the tie. This did not happen. I find this curious.

Search through that and try to add if-then scenarios to you suspicions. Who did your sus vote for? Does it mesh with Made's flip? Use it and try to create a world based on data that explains how a potential baddie team may have voted to get as much of what they want out of Day 1 and Night 1.

Spreadsheeting is done, but I'm making it editable format here rather than pictures. That way we can keep updating it.


DAY 1 VOTES:

ALISON (11): Alison, Gavial, hollowkat, Kyle, Long Con, MacDougall, Made, Marmot, Moghedien, Poison, Tim

MACDOUGALL (10): Alison, G-Man, Gavial, Kyle, Lon Con, Made, Marmot, Moghedien, Poison, Tim

TIM (7): Alison, Gavial, hollowkat, Kyle, Long Con, Made, Moghedien

DAISY (6): Alison, hollowkat, Kyle, Long Con, Moghedien, Tony

GAVIAL (6): Daisy, hollowkat, Kyle, Long Con, MacDougall, Moghedien

MADE (6): G-Man, Gavial, Long Con, MacDougall, Marmot, Moghedien

POISON (6): G-Man, Gavial, hollowkat, Kyle, MacDougall, Tony

TONY (6): hollowkat, Kyle, Long Con, Made, Marmot, Mohegdien

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

KYLE (5): G-Man, Gavial, MacDougall, Marmot, Tony

MARMOT (5): hollowkat, Kyle, MacDougall, Made, Marmot

FALCON (4): G-Man, Long Con, MacDougall, Tony

G-MAN (4): G-Man, Gavial, Mohegdien, Tony

WILGY (4): Gavial, hollowkat, Marmot, Tony

MOHEGDIEN (3): Daisy, G-Man, Long Con

HOLLOWKAT (2): Daisy, G-Man

LONG CON (2): MacDougall, Tony




*********************************************************************************************



NIGHT 1 VOTES:

MACDOUGALL (5): Daisy, Gavial, Made, Poison, Tim

GAVIAL (4): MacDougall, Poison, Tim, Tony

MADE (4): Daisy, MacDougall, Poison, Tim

POISON* (3): Gavial, MacDougall, Tony

--------------------------------------------

ALISON (3): Daisy, Gavial, Tim

TIM (3): Alison, Gavial, MacDougall

TONY (2): Daisy, Poison

DAISY (0)




*********************************************************************************************


DAY 2 VOTES:

G-MAN (5): Falcon, G-Man, Kyle, Marmot, Wilgy

FALCON (4): G-Man, hollowkat, Kyle, Wilgy

WILGY (4): G-Man, hollowkat, Kyle, Marmot

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KYLE (2): Falcon, Wilgy

MOGHEDIEN (1): Falcon

MARMOT (0)

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Apr 27, 2021 1:07 pm it's because iso links aren't in the intro

See post #868 for ISO links.

Spelling that all out just now made me realize how important it is for everyone to cast all of their allotted votes. In the past, vote analysis was my bread and butter, but I usually needed three days to start gleaning info and piecing things together. I thought this game would move too fast for it to be useful, but it can be. The quantity of votes in the game, coupled with the quantity of chops, makes up for the speed at which the game progresses.

I’m going to try to spreadsheet all the votes out if I can. I won’t be able to share until closer to EoD, but I will share what I can when I can.

In the meantime, test your sus theories against vote records. See if you see any daylight in there!