The Syndicate

JJJ wolf gambit could have had so many fails on Day 3 already:

Zenon could have not been silenced and counterclaim.
Another player could have been a (real) tracker and counterclaim.
Meatbaby could have properly defended herself, including shedding light that she visited tutuu with another kind of target.

All this makes for baffling questionable wolf gambit, unless he as wolf (with the team) had more info to spin the story right.

Lime Coke wrote: ↑Thu Jul 20, 2023 4:49 am

Ricochet wrote: ↑Thu Jul 20, 2023 4:45 am I am missing the mastermind element behind JJJ’s claim, I really do. You were on heat and wanted to delay things and win one more mislynch, ok, perhaps. But otherwise, it’s no mastermind move. It’s masterdumb.

Writing was on the wall for the guy...idk if it was fully happening, but it was closing in on him.

Kamikaze a town that wasn't considered a yeet for most of the game.


Now let me ask you about the other side of the coin here:

Do you really think JJJ tries that as town?

The fact that I took JJJ for a town tracker, eager to share the info, if a bit superficial in his analysis (that his tracked visit was the killer’s visit), is proof that I believed he would have done down as town.

The only surprise on Day 3 was that the flip was town, not that JJJ was seen town for it:

Belzy wrote: ↑Thu Jul 20, 2023 4:46 am

Ricochet wrote: ↑Thu Jul 20, 2023 4:39 am

Belzy wrote: ↑Thu Jul 20, 2023 4:36 am

Ricochet wrote: ↑Thu Jul 20, 2023 4:34 am The most tinfoil detail about Zenon’s claim could be that it’s overpowered. Contrary to JJJ’s ability claim, Zenon would track every visit. And confirmation that there was only one visit, moto’s.

If not for this difference, Zenon’s claim would be identical to JJJ’s.

There is no way I will trust Zenon's claim over my willingness to lynch an actual outed JJJ.

I’m confused. If you want to lynch JJJ, that would mean you do trust Zenon’s claim.

And can you define in what way JJJ is objectively outed?

How does me wanting to lynch JJJ first equals trusting Zenon's claim?

Aside from getting rid of town after town, a fake red check is outing yourself as scum. Not only that. A part of me did not believe JJJ, because I have a very hard time townreading JJJ. So there is no way I will allow JJJ surviving another day. Anything that will destract us from lynching JJJ, I see as a potential scum move; to stall a lynch on another scum once again. After all mislynches we cannot allow any more mistakes.

Zenon is just like JJJ a potential scummy in my book. So I won't trust Zenon's claim right now. JJJ is my top scumread. Never rescind.

“A fake red check is outing yourself as scum.”

This being JaggedJimmyJay, as wolf, I am certain he was aware of this backlash.

Otherwise, I think there are partial details to his claim. He only claim he saw “one” visit and deduced it must have been the killing blow.

It gives me pause that, this being JaggedJimmyJay, he did not consider for one sec that his read is limited, i.e. meatball was one of several who may have visited tutuu.

So there’s rational space for this being a town mega blunder, too.

I am missing the mastermind element behind JJJ’s claim, I really do. You were on heat and wanted to delay things and win one more mislynch, ok, perhaps. But otherwise, it’s no mastermind move. It’s masterdumb.

I would argue that punitive lynches are the worst instinct to follow. Zenon’s claim is no definitive proof JJJ was fake.

But I would also argue we cannot leave both claim(er)s unflipped. If we go into Day 5 with two unknowns, it becomes a gamble.

Belzy wrote: ↑Thu Jul 20, 2023 4:36 am

Ricochet wrote: ↑Thu Jul 20, 2023 4:34 am The most tinfoil detail about Zenon’s claim could be that it’s overpowered. Contrary to JJJ’s ability claim, Zenon would track every visit. And confirmation that there was only one visit, moto’s.

If not for this difference, Zenon’s claim would be identical to JJJ’s.

There is no way I will trust Zenon's claim over my willingness to lynch an actual outed JJJ.

I’m confused. If you want to lynch JJJ, that would mean you do trust Zenon’s claim.

And can you define in what way JJJ is objectively outed?

The most tinfoil detail about Zenon’s claim could be that it’s overpowered. Contrary to JJJ’s ability claim, Zenon would track every visit. And confirmation that there was only one visit, moto’s.

If not for this difference, Zenon’s claim would be identical to JJJ’s.

I have qualms, general or specific, with the “player X only lynched town, therefore bad” idea. Probably from bias as a frequent town mislyncher, here included.

It’s Day 4. All our lynches were town thus far.

Porscha wrote: ↑Thu Jul 20, 2023 3:38 am okay cool my most important thoughts were not responded to. cool cool

I focused on the first point, if you mean me.

I dunno about projecting why motobot was the killer. Perhaps they considered it low chance for him to be a target (block, track, etc)

Porscha wrote: ↑Thu Jul 20, 2023 3:25 am like maybe i'm too worried about the sort - of - unlikely, but if there traditional roles like tracker, what's to say there isn't a redirector type role? or false read kind of role?

I would need some mechanical understanding on how you can track who “visits” your target and get false read (aka a false visitor, sorta).

First thought was that JJJ - surprising as that may be - was superficial and triggery with interpreting meatbaby’s visit as the only visit or the only possible explanation for tutuu’s death.

But the wagon pressure weighs down on him as a suspect motive to deflect with a (fake or not) claim.

Porscha wrote: ↑Thu Jul 20, 2023 3:24 am

what was his wagon like? how many votes did he get?
I was having impure thoughts of jjj being a real tracker and wolves taking advantage of something like a redirector that gave him a false result and then counter claiming the tracker
cuz also like, what are the chances the wolves would sent moto to do a kill when, if jjj is really a wolf, he would be outed today. why not just send him? moto has also been in the poe quite a bit, it generally seems like a risky move to send him regardless of the jjj situation. i'm worried about this scenario and nobody seems to have considered it

I think JJJ’s wagon amounted to two or three votes right when he made his claim post.

Can everyone also pitch in on the “why would JJJ delay his lynch by one phase with a fake claim”?

Is anyone impacted by the rain, insofar as they can state so?

Nevermind on the parity reach, Martin is off the poll (presumably silenced), we are ten players total, not nine, as I judged from the poll.

This is the weirdest process of analysis I'm experiencing, every detail or angle raises a BUT/YET caveat

It's within reason that JJJ fake claimed to save his skin D3 and push all play into a lock-on vote, BUT was his wagon that dire as to merit this gambit (instead of fighting it out)?
-- same question if Zenon's claim is now the fake one, this is not a lylo phase (unless there's a double kill and we reach parity toNight?)
It's within reason that JJJ fake claimed to save his skin D3, YET why or to what purpose delay his lynch by just one phase, virtually?
JJJ fake claimed a track role, BUT does JJJ fit the profile of a player so bold / un-thorough in his gambit'ing, as to have banked on there being no actual track role to counter-claim?
Apart from two details, JJJ's and Zenon's ability claim are the same, BUT is that reasonable, within the design and balance of this game?
Two civilian track roles is a posibility, BUT is that balanced?
A mafia track role to counter a civilian track role is a design/balance posibility, BUT what would the track role, designed in this fashion, truly serve the mafia?

etc. I'll fill up further this thought process.

As far as I can discern from wiki (cuz god knows I ain't making progress through playing it myself), some characters from DLCs has already flipped, so the "pirate" claim is reasonable.

Alright.

[VOTE: JaggedJimmyJay] aubergine

Belzy wrote: ↑Wed Jul 19, 2023 11:17 pm

Zenon wrote: ↑Wed Jul 19, 2023 11:09 pm

Ricochet wrote: ↑Wed Jul 19, 2023 11:07 pm

Zenon wrote: ↑Wed Jul 19, 2023 10:17 pm Motobaby is wolf I'm Lookout I watched Rondo last night bet bet

Can you be more specific about this role or info (within rule 3's limits, of course)?

We've been through "I tracked this = outed gg gg" already.

I see every one who visits a target

I watched Rondo

Moto visited

Moto killed

Moto is scum

GGs

Is this an attempt to save JJJ?

How is it a save attempt from Zenon if it thus far buried JJJ under four votes?

Zenon wrote: ↑Wed Jul 19, 2023 11:08 pm

Lime Coke wrote: ↑Wed Jul 19, 2023 10:48 pm

Zenon wrote: ↑Wed Jul 19, 2023 10:44 pm Does game have hammer? Cause we can just hammer back to back honestly.

I don't think it does so we're here for about 90 hours.

That's no bueno

JJJ could technically concede, I suppose.

Zenon wrote: ↑Wed Jul 19, 2023 11:09 pm

Ricochet wrote: ↑Wed Jul 19, 2023 11:07 pm

Zenon wrote: ↑Wed Jul 19, 2023 10:17 pm Motobaby is wolf I'm Lookout I watched Rondo last night bet bet

Can you be more specific about this role or info (within rule 3's limits, of course)?

We've been through "I tracked this = outed gg gg" already.

I see every one who visits a target

I watched Rondo

Moto visited

Moto killed

Moto is scum

GGs

Can you describe with certainty your role tracks "every single player" who visits?

Can you state with certainty that motobot was the only visitor? (i.e. you would have received info of several visits, if that would have been the case)

Is your role basically the same as JJJ's (or the type JJJ, at the very least, claimed to be), except for the "every one" detail?

Zenon wrote: ↑Wed Jul 19, 2023 10:17 pm Motobaby is wolf I'm Lookout I watched Rondo last night bet bet

Can you be more specific about this role or info (within rule 3's limits, of course)?

We've been through "I tracked this = outed gg gg" already.

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 18, 2023 3:25 pm I don't get what you're saying with that.

Kind of a reply to JJJ's cheer, except with the opposite idea that I resorted to doing nothing today.

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 18, 2023 3:17 pm Rico doesn't mention Falcon a whole lot but I think there isn't as much "selective ignorance" as Zenon did with early d1 on the Creature wagon.

Also he straight up goes "uhhhhhh k" in the post of sprawling notes or whatever towards Falcon. Doesn't seem like a very teamed comment.

I probably need a full university course on falcon behavioural. I remember he was more active D1 than I expected, and said expectation were based off slanking in a previous game, where he was town.

D2 was just vote reads, so yeah, blank stuff there.

g'job g'job mech results are da best slacking off for two days much agree

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 18, 2023 5:53 am

Epignosis wrote: ↑Mon Jul 10, 2023 4:38 pm Liver & Onions -falcon45ca
Yogurt - Belzy
Deviled Eggs - Porscha
Pimento Cheese Sandwich - die_meatbaby
Mint Chocolate Chip Ice Cream - Ricochet

Only five food items for this day phase, when last day phase had eight, and the first day phase had 11

next day phase it will likely be two food items

Three? Unless you expect there to be two night deaths again.

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 18, 2023 5:39 am if there's a 4th wolf then things get a bit complicated as I'm currently unsure of who they are. Could be motobot or not for all I know.

8-4 would be a dire situation already for toDay. Two phases away from LyLo, if they hit their kill toNight.

Would have expected a 3p (killer), especially given Night protection tool also being obtainable by wolves in principle, but no signs of that from the nightkills, unless it's a role with conditioned activation.

General question: which player do you find the hardest to crack, from intel and/or game activity?

Can’t say I noticed weirdness from you.

Also can’t say I follow why I would be wolf for being townread by Zenon.

RondoDimBuckle wrote: ↑Mon Jul 17, 2023 11:58 pm I will remind everyone neon isnt dead yet

She sure looks silenced toDay, though.

motobot wrote: ↑Mon Jul 17, 2023 5:50 pm I'm glad I didn't get to far behind

What did you get from chester, young lad?

die_meatbaby wrote: ↑Mon Jul 17, 2023 5:12 pm
I don't have a problem to get lynched, but hopefully when the have the next misslynch because they all are not experienced enough to see difference between newbie and Wolf, you are the next so this town get finally a wolf.

I sense a mismatch between telling us "all" that we're bad / "not experienced" at this and asking to follow through with your legacy.

Anyway, this verges on pointlessness, especially with the Day phase being settled, so I will detach, probably for good. It's a good two days worth of trying the video game some more.

As far as I can offer testimony to be weighed in, I think both Seanzie and Lime have entered complete tunnellitis.

I feel Seanzie fits the town tunneler profile more, his initial criticism are not on the unreasonable side (if sadly over-demanding and misguided), the rest is part of the syndrome; at worst, instances of spinning my actions at every possible turn. Still, he's fixated, he's got it bad, tough.

Lime fits the wolf profiter more. Several instances of sheeping, parking a vote at every signal, mischaracterising my activity, profiling me to hyperboles and cultivating no critical angle, only attacks or offended rebuttals.

Even assuming it's all spidey fingerpointing at each other, the most levelheaded take on it all is that he has me in his POE and needs me flipped, and the same goes for me in regards to him.

The others can decide. My odds are worsening (potentially three players locked on me D4, a supporting voice already removed). C'est la vie.

Peace.

Lime Coke wrote: ↑Mon Jul 17, 2023 5:01 pm Your read and treatment of me is plenty the ammo.

If wolf, my odds of getting you lynched were fairly decent so far, especially D2.

Also, I have at least three players who can lock onto me, some bang-up job I did eliminating any of these with nightkills (either that, or my teammates don't listen to and care about me for shit).

Lime Coke wrote: ↑Mon Jul 17, 2023 3:57 pm And if I die in the night I will simply ask Ricochet be yeeted on Day 4.

@Seanzie
@JaggedJimmyJay
@Porscha
@RondoDimBuckle
@MartinGG99
@Belzy
@falcon45ca
@Zenon
@motobot

If you’re wolf, you don’t get nightkilled. Rinse and repeat?

If you’re not, cool to provide them (and Seanzie) more ammo for smear and lynch pressure.

Lime Coke wrote: ↑Mon Jul 17, 2023 3:23 pm
That's the thing though. I'm pretty much not trying to shut off reads on you. I've asked JJJ why he townreads you and gave him a chance to explain.

and?

I'm looking at other dead town legacies, I'm wondering why both the people tunneling you (Seanzie and I) are still alive while others have died.

Like I'm not trying to look at you in bad faith I'm trying to figure out what is going wrong.

and?

But you for some reason go after me when I'm giving you a chance.

Some reason, no. Again, case.
And “giving me a chance” is so poorly worded, first instinct is to snark back. I am not on any trial, I don’t need allowance for whatever it is I’m doing.

JJJ, is there any reasonable potential backfire to your intel, role- or mech-wise?

Seanzie wrote: ↑Mon Jul 17, 2023 3:17 pm

die_meatbaby wrote: ↑Mon Jul 17, 2023 1:27 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Jul 17, 2023 12:18 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Jul 16, 2023 8:06 pm Probably a good look for meatbaby too, even if they clearly had frustrations with tutuu

I lied.

I have a 1-shot watcher ability, and I watched tutuu last night. meatbaby visited her.

[VOTE: die_meatbaby] aubergine

First I would kill tutuu in N1 if I was Wolf when I would give no fuck to get caught and still if I would give a fuck about getting caught I wouldn't kill tutuu because you all would think of me as wolf. Also as Mafia I would kill Seanzie in N1. Since D1 I see him as a strong Player. But you can vote me out if you want. I feel so alone as Townie here, because you all play like wolf. It seems like everybody is lying here, also it doesn't matter if you have one Townie less anymore. They will win anyways with this kind of Townmembers

I think this pretty much confirms I'm either spot-on with Rico, and/or there is a wolf in scumchat that knows I am often D1'd. Possible people that could fit that bill are {Belzy, Falcon Porscha} and maybe a lower but possible chance of people having that impression would be {Rondo, Martin, Lime}. Belzy or Falcon would be my first guess.

As soon as I read meatbaby's rebuttal, I could have bet my house that would/could get spinned (spun?) onto me, lol.

Lime Coke wrote: ↑Mon Jul 17, 2023 3:03 pm Ngl I'm just gonna go back to wanting to kill Ricochet after Meat dies just because this dude is annoying me.

I'm trying to give you an opportunity to prove yourself to be towny.

Your response is to OMGUS and tunnel me with bad reasons when you've done nothing to warrant being townread.

So I'm just gonna get you out.

@ bold part

If you don't want to debate anything in earnest, that's fine. "You haven't done anything towny" is either a high-horse demand or you are (inadvertedly or willing) shutting off not only any read on me doing that, but reads from others that this is not an honest take.

The tunnel argument is just spidey fingerpointing at this point, I don't think I'm spidey fingerpointing, I made a case on you.

If you (and Seanzie, for that matter) only vote me out of annoyance, that's a wrong path to take mafia-wise.

Seanzie wrote: ↑Mon Jul 17, 2023 3:01 pm

Ricochet wrote: ↑Mon Jul 17, 2023 12:37 pm

Seanzie wrote: ↑Mon Jul 17, 2023 12:21 pm

Ricochet wrote: ↑Mon Jul 17, 2023 11:37 am

Lime Coke wrote: ↑Mon Jul 17, 2023 11:26 am Like one of my pet peeves in mafia legit are people that just resort to OMGUS when they do nothing at all throughout the game.

I'm one of the more generous readers you'll see, so if you did a lick of anything towny then I can find you town.

But you're not doing that at all.

I made a Day 2 case on you, I’m not OMGUSing you.

That you found it context-splitting (don’t think it was, since it was your votes track) and garbage, it’s your prerogative.

Your case on me is what exactly - and you went as far as guilty’ing me for having had three reads on three town - and for not doing whatever towny stuff you demand of me. Shrug.

Sean is probably town tunneler. You are likely wolf sheeper.

I am a little confused about Rico's push here on Lime over me. It kinda makes me wonder if one of Rico's partners is someone who knows me well enough to know that I'll fight hard in a thunderdome. I suppose it's also possible that this is a 300 iq distancing play and scum!Lime is about to hose us tomorrow after we flip scum!Rico, but meh... that's a tomorrow concern.

Why is it beyond reason that I find you to have made at least a case effort (instead of a piggyback on the case’s core idea) and that you just exhibit the worst towntunnel instead of wolf hounding me into demise?

I mean that seems reasonable from a town!Rico standpoint, but I'm more concerned with what it means for scum!Rico. Obviously it isn't particularly fruitful for me to talk to you about the implications of scum!you on other people though, unless you want to shed some light on the rest of the team?

I offered to do the kill, but you said ladies first.

die_meatbaby wrote: ↑Mon Jul 17, 2023 1:27 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Jul 17, 2023 12:18 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Jul 16, 2023 8:06 pm Probably a good look for meatbaby too, even if they clearly had frustrations with tutuu

I lied.

I have a 1-shot watcher ability, and I watched tutuu last night. meatbaby visited her.

[VOTE: die_meatbaby] aubergine

First I would kill tutuu in N1 if I was Wolf when I would give no fuck to get caught and still if I would give a fuck about getting caught I wouldn't kill tutuu because you all would think of me as wolf. Also as Mafia I would kill Seanzie in N1. Since D1 I see him as a strong Player. But you can vote me out if you want. I feel so alone as Townie here, because you all play like wolf. It seems like everybody is lying here, also it doesn't matter if you have one Townie less anymore. They will win anyways with this kind of Townmembers

"First I would kill tutuu in N1 if I was Wolf" -- tutuu (and Jay) were protected on N1, I think at the very least wolfmates would have pointed this out
"I would kill Seanzie N1" -- someone said Seanzie is usually N1 material, though I think it was a townie (tutuu?); if Seanzie is town, any interpretation of why you would have (or wouldn't have) NK'd him is loose, still he missed out on a lot of D1, was just warming up and locked on to a potential mislynch (yours truly), all of which might have been less incentive to label him a threat for that time; also, IIRC, when Scotty hinted at being a vengeful, SVS hinted that crazy things would happen if she'd die along, maybe the wolfchoice was to remove any threats there

the rest is AtE and throwing poop at us

Lime is bamboozeld wolf or makes the worst kind of moves a town could do to not look shady, swear to God.

“Hey look an outed wolf. I’ll let it play out.”

da heck

Lime Coke wrote: ↑Mon Jul 17, 2023 12:54 pm [VOTE: Unvote] aubergine

I have no idea if majority is on but I'll sit back and let this day play out.

Unfortunate my read there got messed up by the outburst.

That “but” makes it sound you’ll sit out regardless.

Hammer mechanic is easy to find out on the Host opener, there’s nothing complicated about that it.

Why would you not vote to flip this?

Checking w/w associations makes more sense now and I could look into myself.

Checking the vote progression EOD2 is also still something worth doing.

Both could send me into overheat, tho.
I confess procrastinating is still a convenient option. :P

Seanzie wrote: ↑Mon Jul 17, 2023 12:21 pm

Ricochet wrote: ↑Mon Jul 17, 2023 11:37 am

Lime Coke wrote: ↑Mon Jul 17, 2023 11:26 am Like one of my pet peeves in mafia legit are people that just resort to OMGUS when they do nothing at all throughout the game.

I'm one of the more generous readers you'll see, so if you did a lick of anything towny then I can find you town.

But you're not doing that at all.

I made a Day 2 case on you, I’m not OMGUSing you.

That you found it context-splitting (don’t think it was, since it was your votes track) and garbage, it’s your prerogative.

Your case on me is what exactly - and you went as far as guilty’ing me for having had three reads on three town - and for not doing whatever towny stuff you demand of me. Shrug.

Sean is probably town tunneler. You are likely wolf sheeper.

I am a little confused about Rico's push here on Lime over me. It kinda makes me wonder if one of Rico's partners is someone who knows me well enough to know that I'll fight hard in a thunderdome. I suppose it's also possible that this is a 300 iq distancing play and scum!Lime is about to hose us tomorrow after we flip scum!Rico, but meh... that's a tomorrow concern.

Why is it beyond reason that I find you to have made at least a case effort (instead of a piggyback on the case’s core idea) and that you just exhibit the worst towntunnel instead of wolf hounding me into demise?

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Jul 17, 2023 12:18 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Jul 16, 2023 8:06 pm Probably a good look for meatbaby too, even if they clearly had frustrations with tutuu

I lied.

I have a 1-shot watcher ability, and I watched tutuu last night. meatbaby visited her.

[VOTE: die_meatbaby] aubergine

Well my case (no. 3) was on you, but I guess that’s a bail.

[VOTE: diemeatbabe] aubergine

At least two people did reads on me and on your takes on me that “finding me to have done nothing” (nothing at all!) is not a charitable take.

And when I don’t go with such disingenousness, the OMGUS card is taken out. Ok.

Lime Coke wrote: ↑Mon Jul 17, 2023 11:26 am Like one of my pet peeves in mafia legit are people that just resort to OMGUS when they do nothing at all throughout the game.

I'm one of the more generous readers you'll see, so if you did a lick of anything towny then I can find you town.

But you're not doing that at all.

I made a Day 2 case on you, I’m not OMGUSing you.

That you found it context-splitting (don’t think it was, since it was your votes track) and garbage, it’s your prerogative.

Your case on me is what exactly - and you went as far as guilty’ing me for having had three reads on three town - and for not doing whatever towny stuff you demand of me. Shrug.

Sean is probably town tunneler. You are likely wolf sheeper.

My plans for Day 3:

1. [VOTE: Lime Coke] aubergine, imma take the bleed

2. Analyse the EoD vote progression.

3. Make a grand case on someone.

4. Bail on 2 and 3 if people go with Sean the Tunnel Digger and decide to flip me.

Seanzie wrote: ↑Mon Jul 17, 2023 11:02 am

Lime Coke wrote: ↑Mon Jul 17, 2023 10:12 am Also do you have a possible second mafia read or are you just focused on Ricochet at this point?

Honestly, I'm pretty dead set on Rico right now and don't really want to get distracted from that. Dude should have been elimmed two days ago IMO, and I don't really want to push anywhere else until he is flipped. Too easy to get distracted that way.

zzz