The Syndicate

If dunya is mafia in this game then I will never again trust the meta claim that she is bad at lying

Not Jack, Jay.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Tue Dec 12, 2017 6:49 pmeveryone who is active looks like town in many aspects

this is what motivates me to vote for sig today

if LC is truly civ then that leaves Quin, DDL, and Speed as potential mafia.

Quin has done some things that don't make sense as mafia. Things that go against the careful and pragmatic impression I have of him based on his actions in Chicka Chicka.

DDL.... I can't get past the early emotional response to jack, it's not strong but it didn't seem fake.

Speed.... Well if speed is indie then he's not a threat unless we let him be a threat.

um actually LC isn't confirmed town he's confirmed to be the secret Space Mountain role that appeared in my dream.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Tue Dec 12, 2017 6:11 pm
dunya wrote: ↑Tue Dec 12, 2017 6:06 pm I know but theorizing and confirming 100% role alignments of other players is not very good right now.
For you, maybe. Not for me.

I'm gonna leave the thread for a while. What happens will happen, I guess.

actually even more alarming

speedchuck wrote: ↑Tue Dec 12, 2017 6:11 pm
Kylemii wrote: ↑Tue Dec 12, 2017 6:09 pm if we're wrong about sig and nijuu the real mafia would target the confirmed and trusted first...

specifying who those people are allows them to reshape their endgame plans
For you, maybe. Not for me.

I have no idea what this means

if we're wrong about sig and nijuu the real mafia would target the confirmed and trusted first...

specifying who those people are allows them to reshape their endgame plans

[mention]Marmot[/mention] can Sutter Buttes self-target?

I think choosing not to kill would have been the best choice for mafia last night regardless of who it was, unless it is someone with so much accumulated trust (like Dunya said) that they could just kill as they please while we narrow down our suspects via lynch over the course of 3-4 days.

no kill would have pointed us towards lynching sig, and probably nijuu next which is exactly what a non sig mafia would want.

if sig and nijuu are not mafia and the mafia starts killing again tonight then by day 11 there'd be 7 players left alive. lynch wrong then and it's 5 on day 12, then 3 on day 13....... if the mafia votes with the shortest mountain then that gives a chance to tie or actually.... overtake the vote because of being Sutter Buttes.

another angle to consider... acquiescing to speedchuck's request puts us at a higher risk of losing if we're really just 100% wrong about sign and Nijuu. If for example LC or Quin or whomever is the final mafia and we lynch Speedchuck today and he starts killing again tonight things start getting dice-y.

Matterhorn's not a doctor.

idk im actually thinking about it

in any case i think this disproves the most popular theory that my dreams have future seeing powers; LC is probably not Space Mountain after all :/

if he had that type of role..... if everyone he's planted bombs on died at his lynching then we'd still win as long as one of the bombholders is the mafia right?

dunya wrote: ↑Tue Dec 12, 2017 4:15 pm
Kylemii wrote: ↑Tue Dec 12, 2017 4:10 pm speedchuck's reasons for how his death could benefit us are not trustworthy. They mostly contradict themselves, and would not actually create a compelling reason for us to kill him for our own benefit.

Lynching Speedchuck is a gamble, if he dies and achieves a personal wincon then that's fine, the best possible outcome for a mafia game is the one that creates the most winning banners.

The possibility of his wincon preventing us from achieving our wincon is the real risk.
perhaps speed, as the 3P I'm assuming here, has a role where he plants bombs on people and can diffuse them when lynched? He's planted them on sig at least. He gets lynched, takes sig with him (possible last scum) and wins the game for us?

I'm trying to see why he was opposed to a sig lynch. It had to be either him or nijuu.

D:

speedchuck's reasons for how his death could benefit us are not trustworthy. They mostly contradict themselves, and would not actually create a compelling reason for us to kill him for our own benefit.

Lynching Speedchuck is a gamble, if he dies and achieves a personal wincon then that's fine, the best possible outcome for a mafia game is the one that creates the most winning banners.

The possibility of his wincon preventing us from achieving our wincon is the real risk.

this is probably the most effort that's ever been put into a lynch that will likely end in killing an inactive

or maybe i'm just reading into things too much

i don't think there's any huge risk associated with any decisions we might make today

when I listed the 3 options for today i forgot the fourth option where the mafia actually did try to kill last night and failed.

new thread information reveals that this is a possibility

dunya wrote: ↑Tue Dec 12, 2017 3:40 pm Kyle - why nijuu?? Did you see what I was seeing?

a hunch

and i also agree with what you said

we should end this game in the same way we played it, with wild end of day lynch trains out of nowhere

hmmmmmmm

speed do you think sig and Nijuu are actually unlikely to be the final mafia for any reason?

speedchuck wrote: ↑Tue Dec 12, 2017 3:24 pm
Kylemii wrote: ↑Tue Dec 12, 2017 3:00 pm speedchuck if we vote for you can you gaurantee to me that it won't just be some boring disappointing bullshit and something cool will happen instead?
I mean, it's not gonna be that cool. My flip will just explain everything that's going on and leave it to you guys to decide what to do with it.

knowledge sucks. knowing shit is for nerds.

If I vote for speed then this could potentially be the second time I've thrown away a win by listening to Speedchuck in the endgame and making an impulsive choice.

Technically speaking the win conditions are vague enough that if Olympus Mons could choose alignment and join a team of their choice, the text would still be correct.

speedchuck if we vote for you can you gaurantee to me that it won't just be some boring disappointing bullshit and something cool will happen instead?

speedchuck wrote: ↑Tue Dec 12, 2017 2:52 pm
Kylemii wrote: ↑Tue Dec 12, 2017 2:51 pm Speedchuck, are you against a sig Lynch?
Today? Yes.

today but not always?

Speedchuck, are you against a sig Lynch?

speedchuck wrote: ↑Tue Dec 12, 2017 2:41 pm
Kylemii wrote: ↑Tue Dec 12, 2017 2:40 pm
speedchuck wrote: ↑Tue Dec 12, 2017 2:37 pm
Kylemii wrote: ↑Tue Dec 12, 2017 2:32 pm I was going to vote for you until you changed your mind and decided you wanted to die again. :/
That doesn't make any sense.
what's the fun in killing someone who wants to die
We lynch for reasons in this game, not for fun.

games are meant to be fun.

i'm positive that lynching sig will lead us to victory. Like.... 60% sure of it. I have no reason to believe that lynching you will make us win faster, than lynching sig would, the only reason for me to lynch you would be to appeal to my own sense of curiousity and often self-destructively capricious nature.

I really just don't understand how it would benefit anyone?

oh fuck

speedchuck wrote: ↑Tue Dec 12, 2017 2:37 pm
Kylemii wrote: ↑Tue Dec 12, 2017 2:32 pm I was going to vote for you until you changed your mind and decided you wanted to die again. :/
That doesn't make any sense.
what's the fun in killing someone who wants to die

I was going to vote for you until you changed your mind and decided you wanted to die again. :/

speedchuck's request of "just lynch me" also has no explanation based on civvie roles. I had wondered if he might be Pico de Orizaba but that role can only revenge kill players who vote for it.

the mafia actually only has to get rid of the 'earthly mountains' so Olympus Mons isn't exactly on our side but is still pretty much neutral, we don't know what their win condition could be...

It could be something like "get these specific civvie roles lynched from the game" or "get lynched on day 9" those wincons wouldn't necessarily be town friendly, but would technically not be against the town

Long Con wrote: ↑Tue Dec 12, 2017 1:52 pm Although I have been believing Olympus was Kyle, of course.

I've been accusing you of being olympus all game

what kind of strategy would that be

Hmmmmm so it's almost like CL Magnus represents sig and the Spectral Red Beard ghost represents Sutter Buttes. The civvies are the Scooby Doo Crew.

if it isn't option A, as long as the mafia doesn't kill we have freedom to lynch whoever we need to to narrow things down

Alright so 3 options:

A. Sig is the final mafiosa and missed sending his PM because he vanished mysteriously several days ago.

B. Someone else is the final mafiosa and decided not to kill to frame Sig buying us more time to find them in the process. Even if we lynch sig today and he's not the final mafia we'll have broken even and likely be at better numbers than we would have been if they had chosen to kill anyways.

C. Someone else is mafia and they also forgot to send in a kill completely by accident, functionally equivalent to B.

Kylemii wrote: ↑Tue Dec 12, 2017 1:19 am No more plans. No more cases.

We're gonna win this game by lynching everyone in alphabetical order just like god intended.

If I die tonight please consider this my last will and testament.

No more plans. No more cases.

We're gonna win this game by lynching everyone in alphabetical order just like god intended.

Speed soft-claims the reverse-jester role, if he dies everyone else wins.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Mon Dec 11, 2017 11:54 pm This ere gambit's gonna work. I ken feel it.

speedchuck is the gambit that you want to die by lynch and it will somehow result in moving us forward towards winning

speedchuck wrote: ↑Mon Dec 11, 2017 11:53 pm
Kylemii wrote: ↑Mon Dec 11, 2017 11:42 pm speedchuck are you the secret jester role
Not even on the role list.

every game has a secret jester, even if it's not on the roles list

speedchuck are you the secret jester role

speedchuck wrote: ↑Mon Dec 11, 2017 11:33 pm

well alright I guess

those sure were some communicative shapes

i think all this speculation is good and important just in case, but i'm like 90% sure the game is going to end after our next lynch.

I mean I get that you're probably trying to pull a gambit but you're like.... probably not even going to die.

you're probably most likely to be mafia of the active players but like... Sig and Nijuu are still a priority. Occhams Nokia razor and all that

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