The Syndicate

I wasn't satisfied with falcon's responses to me, but I wanted to see what would happen if I went along and voted Simon. Surprised to see the falcon wagon just dissipate entirely. I suspect falcon more than Simon.

I'm still fine with falcon. [VOTE: falcon] aubergine

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 7:31 pm

Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 6:52 pm

sig wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 6:08 pm I’m not sure if I like how closely aligned my ideas are with falcon or not this game

I feel tied up in a double-not when I read this.

you’re the problem voter here

How can I become the Solution Voter?

sig wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 6:08 pm I’m not sure if I like how closely aligned my ideas are with falcon or not this game

I feel tied up in a double-not when I read this.

No end time on this poll, but I believe it ends in just a hair under four hours.

Simon looks the worse of the two Epi-spawn.

[VOTE: simon] aubergine

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 1:43 pmIt makes sense then to you that I kill Scotty for TR me, and then I kill Wilgy for SR me...why don't I just kill Wilgy N1? He was sus of me D1 IIRC

It makes sense to me that Wolves think different thoughts and come to different decisions as the game evolves.

I do not agree with trying to frame these events as a connected master plan. You killed Scotty for reasons that made the most sense to you during Night 1, and you killed Wilgy for reasons that made the most sense to you during Night 2. Asking why you wouldn't shortcut the Wilgy kill to Night 1 doesn't make sense to me.

Furthermore, and I just want to get this right, are you implying that my idea of why you would choose those kills is "Scotty for TR you" and "Wilgy for SR you"?

Looking over motobot's ISO, I think his early vote is Towny, and I think his JJJ progression across the whole Day is Towny. The changes in his opinion seem uncontrived.

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Wed Mar 27, 2024 3:21 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Mar 27, 2024 1:50 pm

sig wrote: ↑Wed Mar 27, 2024 1:47 pm Yea I’m not really a fan of anyone on the falcon wagon.

Lorab is probably the only solid read one the three.

I think ONLY focusing on the Wilgy flip and mech is very very dangerous and scummy in fact the more I think about it the less I like people making those cases.

It just seems like a really easy way for mafia to redirect the convo and just boom boom boom through civs with a ready made excuse.

Especially since Jay is already setting this up in a way to target low hanging fruit.

Plus, and I’ll keep going back to this, scotty mentioned Jay, Jay was almost voted out and wasn’t, but his counter wagon didn’t flip mafia? I think if you ignore the mech or even just think about it a bit more Jay looks bad.


My tinfoil throw on is Epi/Jay are two mafia members since epi did help swing away from Jay.

If we have 3 I’d consider either Falcon/Simon

You can have generic suspicion of me. Fine. But I do think you bear a responsibility to explain why I would make the single worst mechanical kill on the board. Wilgy, at EOD, explicitly chose to vote for Abigail Sophia over voting for me. He was never in that BTSC. Ever. Killing him is just wrong.

If we're stuck in you killed him so you could say this today world, then we're blundering right back. That stuff never matters.

Of course Wilgy did heavily sus you, as did Scotty.

I don't think it's as cut and dry as you're trying to make it out to be

Taking Wilgy out removes a clear & present danger to Maf Jay, same with Scotty, and NKing outside the AS wagon isn't guaranteed to actually get the extra kill...in fact, since we're looking at lynching a player NOT on AS wagon, it's possible Town could lynch Shingen

This post has sent me ISOing twice now. First time, I was like "Did Scotty really heavily suspect JJJ?" It was not what I remembered, but reading Scotty's ISO showed me the progression from townread to scumlean. So yeah, Scotty suspected JJJ, but "heavily suspect" is an exaggeration when it was a Scum Lean at its lowest point.

Second time, I looked at Wilgy again. Wilgy suspected falcon MORE than JJJ, and tried to shift the vote to him. His suspicion of JJJ was entirely a gut feeling as far as I can tell, contrasting what his head was telling him. If Wilgy "heavily suspected" JJJ, then he would have easily just voted for him and put him in the lead at Day's end.

So, I don't care for falcon's hyperbole here.

I still think falcon is a hit, because of the blunderkill on Wilgy. I think falcon's focus on the game has been more "light touch" than "deep analysis", and therefore fits the bill on that one. Not saying falcon couldn't be quite aware of slightly more complex factors, but not this game. I should have read over his ISO before writing this, but I'm fine doing it after.

When I read his ISO a the end of Day 1, viewing it as "falcon is a Wolf'" struck me hard with suspicion for him. I looked at it again, trying to view it as "I think this guy is town", and I felt a little better, though there were some parts that I felt like I had to stretch my opinion to accept every post as Towny. Whereas the Wolfy read flowed very easily.

[VOTE: falcon] aubergine

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 12:26 am

Long Con wrote: ↑Wed Mar 27, 2024 4:01 pm While "I did that kill just so I could say why it wasn't me" is not as common as many sleuths would hope... "Let's kill that guy because it implicates someone easily" IS a common thing.

What did you have in mind when you posted this?

Someone killing Scotty to implicate you.

While "I did that kill just so I could say why it wasn't me" is not as common as many sleuths would hope... "Let's kill that guy because it implicates someone easily" IS a common thing.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Mar 27, 2024 3:48 pm I'd appreciate if anyone else could take a dedicated look at both motobot and Simon. I read both as civilians, but I acknowledge that I don't really have a great baseline for what either is supposed to look like as civilians (or for players that young in general). I will need some help if either of them is mafia.

Either of them is SUPER likely to not consider the convoluted reasons why Wilgy was not the best kill.

Scotty's ISO is very positive toward JJJ. Until it does a slow nosedive that ends at a JJJ scumlean. His arguments against Jay's Townness might have been too accurate, for which he was killed. Give it a read. Last quarter especially. I'm not giving up my townread, but Scotty was starting to get more specific with his analysis of Jay.

We cannot accept any Shingen claims. It doesn't work. All Shingen claims are fake.

sig wrote: ↑Wed Mar 27, 2024 2:05 pm @Epignosis @Long Con

Can you both give me your thoughts on my thoughts regarding Jay?

@Simon could you give me a read list? Just what do you think each players alignment is and why

I don't agree with the WIFOM angle, but I think I said that in my last post, basically. It's not worth it to Jay to make a blunder kill with those sweet double-kill stakes on the line. That had to be done by someone not realizing the several angles that reveal Wilgy wasn't their guy. I do not suspect JJJ of that slice of ignorance.

ALTHOUGH there could be a redirector. Gotta add that caveat.

I think Jay approached AtE levels of Towny frustration earlier on in the game, and I don't believe he'd bother with that as a Wolf. I think he'd be playing like he described, and that the threadmoshpere is/was ripe for that plucking. I still lean town on him.

I read some of your posts on my phone in a Taco Bell parking lot, and some while filling up gas, but I think I have the gist of your suspicion. I just believe in my read very much, based on interacting with him.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Mar 27, 2024 1:50 pm

sig wrote: ↑Wed Mar 27, 2024 1:47 pm Yea I’m not really a fan of anyone on the falcon wagon.

Lorab is probably the only solid read one the three.

I think ONLY focusing on the Wilgy flip and mech is very very dangerous and scummy in fact the more I think about it the less I like people making those cases.

It just seems like a really easy way for mafia to redirect the convo and just boom boom boom through civs with a ready made excuse.

Especially since Jay is already setting this up in a way to target low hanging fruit.

Plus, and I’ll keep going back to this, scotty mentioned Jay, Jay was almost voted out and wasn’t, but his counter wagon didn’t flip mafia? I think if you ignore the mech or even just think about it a bit more Jay looks bad.


My tinfoil throw on is Epi/Jay are two mafia members since epi did help swing away from Jay.

If we have 3 I’d consider either Falcon/Simon

You can have generic suspicion of me. Fine. But I do think you bear a responsibility to explain why I would make the single worst mechanical kill on the board. Wilgy, at EOD, explicitly chose to vote for Abigail Sophia over voting for me. He was never in that BTSC. Ever. Killing him is just wrong.

If we're stuck in you killed him so you could say this today world, then we're blundering right back. That stuff never matters.

I ALWAYS think about that latter world, but it rarely happens, I agree.

The Wolves want to kill that dude badly enough that it wouldn't even have a positive value in comparison. It's possibly the best reward ever made possible to a Wolf team. It's Nuclear Armageddon for the Town at that point.

How then should we clear people?

And that's also good night from me.

I am on board with this.

[VOTE: falcon] aubergine

The Scotty and Wilgy kills are both done by someone who knows that they're very good.

LOL voice to text.

I guess sig would be the last on the chopping block from that list, given the reeds earlier.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Mar 26, 2024 11:13 pm

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Mar 26, 2024 11:12 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Mar 26, 2024 11:10 pm Please do not inform the mafia if they do not already know.

Does it matter after today?

Sure, if it results in double-kills.

I don't think it's a good strategy to avoid discussing something like that, because I doubt it's likely they don't know.

Falcon was clearly Wilgy's big suspect. He attempted a possible hot potato onto him at the end there.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Mar 26, 2024 11:08 pm One thing I will say and then refuse to expand on. Anyone is free to explore for themselves though.

DrWilgy is a strange kill following Abigail Sophia's flip.

He's not Shingen.

If we stick with Abigail voters then we can keep Shingen safer?

Also had BTSC with Abigail Sophia, so... that's something.

Shingen has powers. Ask him.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Mar 26, 2024 10:16 pm Radical theory:

Epignosis and motobot are mafia. Scotty only gave them soft town reads, so they killed him. Wilgy explicitly suggested they’re a tinfoil theory of his, so they killed him.

It’d also explain why this whole game has felt like ass.

Flipside tinfoil: falcon and Tony made that kill so that we'd see his tinfoil and believe in it.

Not trying to stifle the start of a day, but why is one more likely than the other?

That sucks, if true.

RIP Wilgy.

I thought the thief WAS Kagemusha, from the opening description. The thief is identical to the daimyō, but is Shingen the daimyō? And Kagemusha replaces Shingen, so I thought they would be identical.

But now I don't know, because AS didn't flip Kagemusha, so the thief is someone different? Hopefully, a Wolf? Also, there was no alignment given in the host post?

Probably because it feels so much like the first limp-ass one ,as I said earlier.

Probably not.

Go for it, there's room.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Mar 25, 2024 9:54 pm Please forgive my hubris late this phase, friends. While it was honest, it's still annoying to listen to some idiot on a forum talk about how great he'd be if X or Y or Z. Can it, Jay.

I enjoyed it.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Mon Mar 25, 2024 9:52 pm I mean, I'm not leaving it a tie.

I'm at Abigail > Falc > Jay

Moving from Abigail to Falc still satisfies tie condition, but doesn't send the preferred

You are no longer responsible.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Mar 25, 2024 9:51 pm

Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Mar 25, 2024 9:50 pm But abigail sophia is F R O Z E N.

She is not sure what to do under all this suspicion and has nothing to say. She doesn't even have a teammate in her family that she can bounce ideas off.

These are my thoughts. I don't know if they are good ones.

Certainly could be. She should try to Let It Go.

Ok, good enough for me. You are free.

[VOTE: Abigail sophia ] aubergine

But abigail sophia is F R O Z E N.

She is not sure what to do under all this suspicion and has nothing to say. She doesn't even have a teammate in her family that she can bounce ideas off.

These are my thoughts. I don't know if they are good ones.

His Meta read on me was accurate.

Well, is he even here?

2026? Really?

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Mar 25, 2024 9:15 pm

Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Mar 25, 2024 9:14 pm Why is Wilgy vs falcon wrong? Falcon could be a Wolf and Wilgy Town, and then you voting him would be right. I don't get your logic here with the WIFOM.

To be clear, I was suggesting that Wilgy was wrong to pair me with falcon (which is WIFOM).

Ah, thanks, I got the fuller context now.

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Mon Mar 25, 2024 9:15 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Mar 25, 2024 9:14 pm

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Mon Mar 25, 2024 9:11 pm [VOTE: JJJ] aubergine

You haven't given a single read on me since early-mid Day 1 when you said I am "prolly town".

You've said before that it's clear my reads evolve outside of the thread





Now you are surprised by it

Hey!


... you been readin'?

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Mar 25, 2024 8:49 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Mon Mar 25, 2024 8:43 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Mar 25, 2024 8:41 pm Some annoying WIFOM to decorate your guest bathroom:

I’m not mafia because absolutely nobody on this roster makes sense as my mafia teammate unless you think it’s exactly sig and LoRab with me.

I'm sitting in my bunker listening to radio waves with a tin hat thinking Falc/Jay is a fine combo.

The tinfoil pirate hat comes out and I think Epi/Moto.

I've considered the Epi/moto tinfoil. For the moment I just can't afford that tinfoil.

I just reduced the whole game to you vs. falcon a bit ago and was voting him, so that's wrong. I know that's more annoying WIFOM, but the bold and brave souls know when the annoying WIFOM is real.

Why is Wilgy vs falcon wrong? Falcon could be a Wolf and Wilgy Town, and then you voting him would be right. I don't get your logic here with the WIFOM.

What a twist!

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Mar 25, 2024 8:37 pm

Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Mar 25, 2024 8:34 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Mar 25, 2024 8:33 pm Abigail will currently kill me anyway.

But you've got a man on the inside, town core, buddy.

It’s almost like you’ve been

Pulling a

Long

Con

I'm a man of my word, hoss. Lots of duplicitous types out there, but not me.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Mar 25, 2024 8:33 pm Abigail will currently kill me anyway.

But you've got a man on the inside, town core, buddy.

The good Doctor may very well be prepping himself to be your executioner, though.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Mar 25, 2024 8:25 pm

Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Mar 25, 2024 8:23 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Mar 25, 2024 8:18 pm

Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Mar 25, 2024 8:02 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Mar 25, 2024 7:26 pm @Long Con what are you thinking?

Tumultuous thoughts. I was drained of the inspiration I felt last night with you and Epi when I came in to find me at the top of your Wolf list, as though you hadn't a) said you found me as Town for well-defined reasons, and b) agreed to towncore me.

Finding it pretty easy to agree with Wilgy, and I don't feel like following your vote on to another LHF, because I don't think your methods are very sound. If you're even Town.

Also, keep in mind that the entire time you were playing "town core"...

Your vote has been on me.

If you had asked, you would have liked the answer. It wasn't intended to stay, more as a guage of other JJJ-interested voters.

Have you learned anything from it? Not intended as rhetorical or patronizing. Literal question.

The vote landscape on your name has not changed since then. There have been a couple of nibbles from sig and wilgy I believe, but no one has pulled the trigger on a JJJ 4th vote. Maybe that says something about either of them, a lack of opportunism.