The Syndicate

She was running the show most of the game, I was pretty lazy this time :-)

Just about missed it! Lizzy sounded honest to me, so I voted Bea.

Lizzy wrote: Really? Well then, this can only mean two things: you're either on the same boat with Bea, Franz or... she's got you right where she wanted.
If Matt was right, it looks like you're not even trying anymore. But looking at Vomps, I'm inclined to take a little gamble here. Whatever the case is though, Bea is the common denominator. Without revealing too much, let's just say that I don't agree with your first statement. Let us also observe a few things:

1. Cody stopped killing since Bea died.
2. Franz has secrets.
3. I'm not so sure Lydecker has been targeted at night yet.

Here's what I think: Bea is Cody. Franz is the role that currently holds the NK, not the entire baddie team. It is very easy at this point in the game to target a teammate who you know you're able to bring back (secrets k, plus it would make sense for the game's balance) to gain credibility and play the Lydecker card especially if Franz is in no real danger. I'm voting Bea, and since Vomps has already made up his mind, I can't convince him to join me, but if you're the other civ, maybe we can prolong this a bit.

Your theory is that be is pretending to be Lydecker by having her teammate kill her and use his secret power to rez her afterward?
I mean, I see what you're hinting, I just don't see any evidence that it's true.

Clearly that makes you Lydecker bea, there's no other way you could be alive again.
So VL must be franz and cody?
I'm a bit lost here, but I don't see good odds for us :-\

A Person wrote: i hope you're bad cuz the civs just lost

It's possible, but it doesn't seem very likely to me.
The only thing that fits with that voting outcome is AP and Timmer as a team -
if they get a kill and a 'random' kill tonight then we could still lose, but otherwise I think we're home free :-D

If Lizzy and Vomps were the team, she wouldn't have just voted Timmer - they would have both voted for me.
Timmer's the only one left that makes sense.

Lizzy wrote:I'll go ahead and vote Timmer. His defense and the fact that he 'holds to his vote to save himself' when he has no votes, does sound like a cornered baddie to me.

I would be doing the same thing, were I him, baddie or not. Nobody wants to lose :-\

I don't like this. The evidence is definitely in favor of voting Timmer, but his posts do not say 'baddie' to me at all.
And honestly, yours do. There's no evidence at all, but I can't help picturing a Lizzy-Vomps team sitting behind the "We're always like this" screen and picking off civs.
And it would work *so* well on a player like me - you two (well, I guess AP too, but he doesn't seem to be voting the party line this game)
never give me any information because you vote so strangely, and in Vomps' case often with no explanation at all.

I was planning on voting timmer again, because he's the only one with evidence against him, but I'm interested.
Why did you think Timmer was an indy and SVS a baddie? Was there some interaction there that provoked your interest?
Or is this one of the 'feels'?

I'm not used to you agreeing with me, and it's making me feel a little steered.

I was leaning toward timmer before, but SVS flipping Indy gives me pause.
Since they killed one civ, I think it makes sense to think that they need civs dead,
And SVS really seemed to want timmer dead.

Does anyone have a clue what their win con could be?
If they need both teams to die, they'd just be mafia, and if they could win with anyone,
having a kill doesn't really make sense.. It's making my voting analysis kind of tough.

Host Linki, but I'm not sure what to make of a bea NK.

An Indy, huh? I'm still not clear on their win conditions, so I can't even say if I'm happy about that outcome :-\
SVS killed someone I was pretty sure was a civ, but then she claimed she felt the opposite about him..
I don't know. I guess a reread is in order, since she had btsc - I'll take a look at the votes again tomorrow morning.

We'll almost certainly have lost if we don't get a baddie this lynch, and it seems like this game has been *really* fast.
I'm confused, because it feels like we've been doing really well, but we're still on the edge of losing.

A Person wrote:After a few days of observation, Nev's posting style in this game screams baddie to me, so I vote for him. I hope I'm right, but I think they've nearly won at this point anyway.

If I don't reply to this, you'll say I'm "ignoring your post", but I really don't have anything to say to that.
I'm not bad?

And really guys? SVS? I don't think I see the case. Really - did someone post a case I missed?
I'm going to vote for Timmer, because there's decent timing evidence, and I don't see anything on SVS at all.

Those are both mafia roles, but one of them kills 'randomly' - that's why I said we got lucky with that kill.

And I used to try to use my instincts and gut feelings about things, but I was so *consistently* wrong that I decided to just quit trying that.
Now 'gut' for me is basically a code word for "information I'm not telling you".

I'd love to trust SVS's instincts about things, but I have no information at all about her alignment this game :-\
And gut feelings are a lot easier to fake than in-thread visible evidence.
I spend a lot of effort most games trying to figure out whether she's a civ, because I do really like to borrow her instincts when it's possible.
Sadly, her votes have revealed very little information about her, and there's not much else to work with yet.

Wow :-\

I've been expecting a hedgeowl kill for a day or so, but I guess we got lucky on the Cody kill.
I'll miss you hedge :-(

S~V~S wrote:

Nevinera wrote:Damn, I trusted him :-(
Rip, sir. Pretty sure you were good.

I don't know, I kind of thought the opposite.

He pinned the final vote on Dom, which is the type of evidence I trust most.
I thought he might be Indy, but they used their one kill on him, so that seems unlikely now.

You and I have radically different approaches to assigning trust in this game, of course.
By the numbers, he was probably a civ - otherwise he was playing some high-risk games with his teammates.
Not impossible, of course, and I'd never treat it as *proof*.. But still solid evidence of civness IMO.

Off meds - stone cleared, thank god. Very little sleep however.

Damn, I trusted him :-(
Rip, sir. Pretty sure you were good.

Woo! That helps our odds a lot - the numbers were starting to look a bit grim there.
Further cements my trust of hedge too, not that I had any real doubts.

I'm in the ER for kidney stones, and my pain meds are AMAZING. Sure makes me glad I voted early, I was in no shape for thinking when the poll closed. So if I seem not to makes sense tonight, I apologize, but not sincerely :-D

I'm not sure I'll get back to this tonight, so I'm going to go ahead and vote for Roxy.
I still don't understand the case on SVS - is this anything other than VAL randomness?

Hedge, do you have any other thoughts about Roxy?

I think I'm going to vote that way, based on her D2 vote to save Dom.
It seems like a risky move for her to make, but it's a lot less risky in a speed game than it would be in a full one.
If it worked, she'd save a teammate, get a civ lynched, and it wouldn't cost her *anything* until Dom died,
at which point she's got suspicion aimed her way, but no certainty.

And I haven't got much else to vote on, honestly.

Hedgeowl wrote:This is great thanks! What are your thoughts on SVS and Roxy based on votes? Besides Timmer they arè ones Id look at too. I would also rather wait to vote Timmer tomorrow, but it would be worthwhile to reread him as well. Despite SVS's thoûght that its convenient for Timmer to be silenced it was due to the Hays Code, a game mechanic, not a specific role, so I don't fault him for that.

I don't think Timmer could have predicted a silencing effect from the violation, so it probably wasn't intentional.

SVS and Roxy both voted for TH on day 3. Roxy was his first vote, so I can't call it a bandwagon or anything at that point.
Roxy also voted TH the day before, when he was the alternative to Dom, and in fact was the vote that ostensibly tied it up.
Seems like a risky move for a baddie, but I don't know how Roxy plays; I could certainly see a bit of a case there.

I'll do a full reread later today, but for now I've got voting analysis at least. (Forgive me if I retread old stuff, it's new to me)

First, Dom's death: he wasn't in the lead on that vote, so either we have vote manipulations in play
(I would guess that the coffee might be a vote bonus?), or hammett decided to switch the lynch at him.
Since I can't see any reason for him to do that (knowing the TH was Nora), I think the former is more likely.
Not that that gets us anything useful yet.

Kate, FH, and Hedge almost got Dom the first day.
Since Hedge was the last to vote for Dom, and the vote ended up tied,
I think we can safely assume that Hedge is at least not on Dom's team.
I'm a bit surprised she's still alive, but I suppose killing Kate was almost as logical.

Dom jumped on Lizzy's self-bandwagon *really* early in the votes on day 1.
if she's bad, that's a strange move, but not indefensible I suppose -
people do tend to avoid jumping on an established bandwagon that early in the game.
It seems like a terrible move on Dom's part though, either way;
I'm assuming that's part of what got him lynched the next day.

Timmer, as the last vote for FH the day Dom *didn't* get lynched, obviously has my attention.
I don't vote for people that can't defend themselves unless I'm sure though, so I'll bring him back up tomorrow.

K4J got a second vote for dom in before the TH train really got going day 2, so he seems likely to not be a teammate as well.
Though I admit I don't yet understand why everyone voted for TH yesterday..
I reread that day, and I still don't see very much supporting logic.
I wish Timmer weren't silenced - he's on the TH voter list too, which makes him my best suspect by far :-\

I noticed that the discussion has centered around "civ" and "baddie" - do we have some reason to believe the indies to be civ-aligned?
They seem to have at least a few kills at their disposal, so I have trouble believing that they're 'win with anyone' independents..

Bah, forgot it was speed mafia. The other game's pace has me used to long days.
Sorry hosts, I'll be better :-(

I hate when I stop mid-post and come back later;
I always end up sounding stupid because I reuse words and phrases unconciously, I guess.

I guess that could make sense.
The description of that role made me think "Crazed violent death rampage" descriptions would be evident, rather than 'mysteriously died' type descriptions.
I still think that Bigelowe is more likely though.

So we think that only non-outing statements can be checked, possibly?
That's way harder to use effectively, I guess.
I can't think of anything clever, so I'll go with yours I guess:
I have not been involved in the night deaths of anyone.

Ah well, after the deaths last night I guess that was expected.

I'm not sure what to make of the first response.
I can't tell if he's cautioning us to be careful with construction,
or that he's not going to let me turn the game into a complex logic problem :-\

I guess it would only matter if we knew and could protect the LD anyway.

Why do you think Boo was NK'd? Do you think it was Wilder?
I mean Kindler has *secrets*, so it could be, but I don't see how they would get two kills last night.
In fact, I don't see how they would have gotten *one*, unless the kill passes. Doesn't it usually say that when that's the case?
I mean, I guess it must have, for two deaths last night.
(That's why I was all congratulatory in my first post; I thought you had already eliminated the only nightly killer).

@llama - did the night kill pass now that Powell is dead?

I guess I should direct that last one to our hosts:

@hosts: are there limits to (a) the nature or (b) the complexity of statements Keyes can test?

I'm still a bit lost - does boo's death suggest that he was Bigelowe?
And could anyone summarize what was up with timmer?
I don't really understand the suspicion there, and I won't have time to reread the whole thread with full attention in the near future :-\

There seem to be a lot of informational roles this game, and I've never played with a 'lie detector' before -
are there any standard rules for what types of statements he/she can check?
After Llama's whole "you can't tell if I'm lying" argument in the other game, I suspect he'll be kind of literal about it.
Is there any reason we *shouldn't* just request that everyone state their civness?

If we can organize it, it'll go even better if we can get everyone to state something like:
"I am civ, and I don't know that X and Y are not civs."
(the people above and below them in the alphabetic list).
Then if the LD can catch someone he'll automatically get a bunch of extra information.
I mean, it seems like it abuses the role, but I *love* abusing a good role :-P

(I am civ, and I don't know that Turnip Head or Enigma Eve is not).

You've never once thought I was a civ. Actually, I don't recall a single person ever remarking that they thought I sounded 'genuine' in any way, and I've been lynched for it in the early days of nearly half my games. Whatever.

I'm a civ. Hopefully that will help.

Anyway, hi! I see we've already got this game in the bag, so thanks for doing all the work without me :-)
Though I guess now we have a long slog to find everyone else, with no intentional kills left to give us clues.

Bah. I should have read the roles list a little harder, sorry.

Why is everyone talking as if the baddies are on a btsc team?
I see that Wilder is specifically listed as being on a team with Hammet, I'd think that kind of indicates the reverse.
Forgive me if this came up before, I only skimmed the thread.