The Syndicate

Flyin' High wrote:You know what, I'm going to take a risk and *Vote BF*

I really hate the thought of voting him, but he's not here defending himself and you are, Elohcin.

And if this bites me in the butt and civvies lose, well at least I tried my hardest for the civvies this game.

Flyin' High wrote:Timmer, are you leaning towards voting BF based on him being quiet? What do you think about my earlier post?

@Elohcin: I am ignoring llama so don't worry, I'm not letting him influence me. I actually had a different interpretation of his post than you had and frankly wish he hadn't posted it at all because it just made me feel even more confused.

timmer wrote:fwiw I don't pay attention to anything dead people say. I'm still thinking bf but I hate that we have no consensus.

Elohcin wrote:My son is asleep for his nap so I must not get to the dishes.

That is an example of off-topic, Logan.

thellama73 wrote:

Epignosis wrote:No on-topic commentary from the dead please.

That's what I've been trying to tell them!

Epignosis wrote:No on-topic commentary from the dead please.

thellama73 wrote:I can't say anymore, Elohcin, I'm sorry. You'll have to stop asking me to comment.

thellama73 wrote:

Flyin' High wrote:Lols, I have this paranoid fear that ya'll are putting trust in me only to lynch me after BF is gone. I actually had a nightmare about this game last night and woke up at 4AM thinking about it.

This is the thought I had at 4AM this morning.

The Tale of the Archer

Epignosis wrote:“So if you ever find yourself in search of someone else, you might do well to start close to home!

“Although in my case, I wish I could lose that bloated harpy that dwells in my house!”

Before he died, llama suggested that perhaps the Archer was a reference to Bow since Bow is the only Archer in the roles. And this got me thinking, the person most "close to home" to llama is Elohcin. Maybe that was what we were supposed to get from it?

Also, Elohcin was the first to suggest the idea that the sacrifice that llama made was the loss of his civvieness, but what if she suggested that because what really happened was when llama got resurrected she lost her civvieness?

The case against blindfaeth is that he's gotten quiet. And yes, that change might be indicative of him changing alliegiance. But it could also be indicative of him being busy or just having gotten drained from such a long game.

I didn't get a chance yesterday to read back through all of Epig's host posts so I'm going to attempt to do that this morning.

I don't want to drag this lynch out, but I feel that we've come so far and it would suck for the civvies to lose now based on a bad decision.

I wish I could advise you on this matter and give my opinion of your very sensible analysis, but alas, the rules prohibit me from doing so.

timmer wrote:bf went from quite active to not active at all. I trust fh. I'm ambivalent about Elohcin. franklyim hapoy to folliw fh's kead.

Flyin' High wrote:I know it's not me, and I'm fearful of trying to lynch Timmer again since that hasn't worked for us 4 times now.

Blindfaeth has been a lot quieter. I hate the thought of suspecting him, but if it's not Timmer it's either him or you, Elohcin.

I hate this. This random guessing feels wrong and not the way this epic game should be ending.

But I'm honestly at a loss right now. I had really hoped it was llama since he was the only remaining player that had a logical explanation for possible being bad.

thellama73 wrote:

Flyin' High wrote:Well, if you're telling the truth Timmer then my next best theory is it's llama and something changed when he came back from the dead the second time.

Because nothing else stands out with regards to blindfaeth or Elohcin as far as I have been able to tell from reading back.

If timmer is telling the truth, then it has to be BF unless FH is an extraordinarily good actor. I can vouch for myself, of course, and I trust Elohcin completely.

timmer wrote:Sorry gang it cannot be me.Whoever we are trying to find seems content to just let us kill each other. Alas kynching is not the answer when ut comes to me and I'm sorry for whatever comes of this latest attemot.

thellama73 wrote:

Elohcin wrote:

Flyin' High wrote:Elohcin, do you know have any idea about Bow's current status?

Because I may have a huge error on my spreadsheet that completely changes who I'm trusting based on this current conversation.

I believe Bow is alive. Looking in my records, I believe he is still with us. I don't think you have anything to worry about when it comes to Bow and your spreadsheet

You and your vague hints! Can't you be more outspoken and less cautious?

Flyin' High wrote:Elohcin, do you know have any idea about Bow's current status?

Because I may have a huge error on my spreadsheet that completely changes who I'm trusting based on this current conversation.

thellama73 wrote:I don't think FH can be bad since she stuck up for She-Ra so heavily. Snake Mountain hasn't been NKing and the only two inactive people at the time were BF and Ishar. FH says that she thinks BF is good, so it doesn't look good for poor Nevinera today.

FH, I would remind you that we don't know the identity of Moss Man. It is possible he is still among us, and he can never be lynched. Sine he can never be lynched, I don't think it out of the realm of possibility that timmer has the same power, especially due to the cosmic nature of his role.

Nevinera wrote:I'm afraid I have no idea.

I now know it wasn't Ishar.. not that I ever really thought it was - he just seemed like a good target since he wasn't contributing anything to our chances.

The more I think about that archer parable, the more it seems like it was pointing the finger at one of your clique of mutual trust. I had thought that was you, because of the description of the period surrounding your first resurrection, but there are a few leaps in that logic.

Nevinera wrote:

elohcin wrote:I think what llama says here does make sense. Nev, how does this make you suspicious of llama and what makes you say that he may have been recruited mid-game. That is a pretty specific claim when you were not here at the time.

As I understand the rules, I'm not allowed to tell you that :-\

The line between revealing my deductions and revealing the information I must have had to make them is a bit fuzzy to me; I've already been pushing that line a bit, to be honest.

I'm not confident that it would have happened 'mid-game', but his early-game actions don't track with being a baddie at all. He's a subtle player in general; if he had been converted, he would have carefully stayed non-obvious thereafter, relying on his earlier behavior to convince people that he's good, and occasionally doing 'good' things when he thinks they'd be convincing but have justifiably low impact on him. Has that been happening?

At any rate, my logic and honesty will become much easier to follow when I'm lynched, which is presumeably why he flip-flopped after I offered to take him down with me.

Nevinera wrote:

thellama73 wrote:If Ishar is the last baddie, then there is not really any time pressure to lynch him, since he is not performing night kills or influencing the discussion in any way. However, if it is Nevinera, it would be dangerous to leave him alive. And since I know him in real life, I know that he is tricksy and not to be trusted. It would be a shame to lynch him if he turns out civ, but we would still have plenty of time to get Ishar afterwards even if that did happen.

You're starting to make me suspicious, llama.. You ought to know who I am, but you seem to be determined to kill me anyway. That makes me think that you might have been recruited mid-game.

If he eventually gets me killed, remember this everyone..

Flyin' High wrote:
Elohcin, yesterday you started to accuse llama of being a traitor. What made you post that? Has something changed to give you doubt?

thellama73 wrote:

timmer wrote:Nevinera seems pretty bright I wouldn't be shocked if he skipped a kill to put pressure elsewhere. The idea to lynch came pretty quick... my vote will oikeky to go Nevi. Epig wouldn't fill a civ role and leave a lone baddie role unfilled.

The more I think about it, the more I think you're right, Timmer. It wouldn't make sense to bring in a substitute this late and fill another civvie role if the only remaining baddie had been inactive all game.

Votes Nevinera

Elohcin wrote:

Nevinera wrote:That was not the point I was trying to make. If he thought the game had originally been unbalanced, then sure - he might try to balance it back out by adding someone to the losing team. But he's not going to take a game that was essentially fair, but has one side starting to win, and then 'balance' it so that the team that has established its lead loses that lead.

Now, unless you think that *both* of the roles in question were evil, the_untamed having left couldn't unbalance things in favor of the civs - at worst it would make things even again, since IMC also left. It makes much more sense the other direction - IMC and untamed were both civs, and he is trying to balance the game back up by adding one of them back in. Which do you think is more likely - both civs, or both bads?

Why does it have to be that either you are both bad or both civvies?

I believe that Epignosis would not launch a game that he and the mod did not believe to be balanced. I think that because we had so many players not participate, the game may have become unbalanced. You mentioned that he brought you in as a replacement simply because you wanted to play. I am thinking that IMC was civvie and untamed was baddie and that Epig had to weigh his options. (For the record, we had other inactive players other than the two roles I just mentioned. For example, Dom was pretty inactive and was civvie.) As Epignosis was deciding where to place you, he may have thought to himself, "I have a new player...do I give him a civilian or a mafia role?" As civvies are close to winning, he most likely thought it unfair to give you the civvie role. That would mean favoring civvies. So, he opted to give you the baddie role. Now we must lynch you.

thellama73 wrote:Well, there was no night kill by Snake mountain. That means either they are all dead or the last one is inactive, which would make it Ishar. I say we lynch him and see what happens. I am afraid of trying to lynch timmer again, to be honest.Thoughts?

Flyin' High wrote:

Nevinera wrote:How did he get lynched at night? -.O

I have a theory that night lynches happen when the lynch is a tie. Now, how the lynch got tied is a whole other can of worms.

Maybe Timmer pulled some shenanigans and put secret votes on Aces? This isn't the first time we've tried to lynch Timmer and someone got lynched at night. Granted, the first time it happened a Snake Mountaineer got lynched (Roxy, Evil-Lyn).

Flyin' High wrote:So I am sooooooo beyond torn. Try lynching Timmer again today? Or was a civvie recruited to the dark side? Or is there one baddie floating around?

Flyin' High wrote:

Nevinera wrote:

Elohcin wrote: Why does it have to be that either you are both bad or both civvies?

I believe you'll find my reasoning in the post you quoted.

Elohcin wrote: I believe that Epignosis would not launch a game that he and the mod did not believe to be balanced. I think that because we had so many players not participate, the game may have become unbalanced. You mentioned that he brought you in as a replacement simply because you wanted to play. I am thinking that IMC was civvie and untamed was baddie and that Epig had to weigh his options. (For the record, we had other inactive players other than the two roles I just mentioned. For example, Dom was pretty inactive and was civvie.) As Epignosis was deciding where to place you, he may have thought to himself, "I have a new player...do I give him a civilian or a mafia role?" As civvies are close to winning, he most likely thought it unfair to give you the civvie role. That would mean favoring civvies. So, he opted to give you the baddie role. Now we must lynch you.

Now, it's pretty obvious that all arguments of this form are fairly weak - trying to predict what Epi would do to maintain a game balance (when we don't know if it's unbalanced, or which direction it might have been unbalanced in) is unlikely to draw any strong conclusions. Now, we are all grasping at straws trying to find something to clue us in to who could be left, and a weak argument is obviously better than nothing. What's interesting is how confidently you are pointing the finger at me based on it! Even if I *didn't* know that you're wrong, that would give me pause. Now I have to spend another hour going back and reading all of your posts to see how often you do that..

Nevinera wrote:That was not the point I was trying to make. If he thought the game had originally been unbalanced, then sure - he might try to balance it back out by adding someone to the losing team. But he's not going to take a game that was essentially fair, but has one side starting to win, and then 'balance' it so that the team that has established its lead loses that lead.

Now, unless you think that *both* of the roles in question were evil, the_untamed having left couldn't unbalance things in favor of the civs - at worst it would make things even again, since IMC also left. It makes much more sense the other direction - IMC and untamed were both civs, and he is trying to balance the game back up by adding one of them back in. Which do you think is more likely - both civs, or both bads?

Nevinera wrote:I would assume because we are *both* civs, and he couldn't give me both roles. Your logic only works if you assume one of the two of us was a snake. As for why he replaced someone so late, it's probably because I really wanted to play.

I certainly don't think he'd try to 'balance' out (read: extend significantly) a game that has been going for so long!

Flyin' High wrote:Well, with the exception of the surprise death of Kate via Zodac recently, we haven't actually had a night kill in something like two or more weeks. I can't remember the last time the mafia nightkilled successfully. So it's really puzzling.

I just can't understand why Epignosis would suddenly replace the_untamed this late in the game if the role you now have isn't somehow important to the non-civvies. Because adding in one more active civvie just doesn't make much sense to me. And why the_untamed over IMC, another no show this game?

Nevinera wrote:Any idea why Ace of Spades would be throwing up on the beach?

blindfaeth wrote:

Nevinera wrote:Hi! I'm completely new, so tell me - who can I trust around here? ;-)

Umm, hello lol.

So who wants to give Nevin the 18-day summary?