The Syndicate

thellama73 wrote:Thanks for a great game everybody, and thanks for hosting INH! The White Lodge portion was easily the most fun I have had so far playing online mafia. The Black Lodge was a little more frustrating. Since we had no confidence in anything the host said by that point, it was sort of like playing a game to which we didn't know the rules, not even our own objectives. I like having some aspects of secrecy, but I think you have to give the players just a little bit of something solid to go off of.

Thanks again to everyone. I am utterly shocked thta I won (but very pleased!)

Congratulations, llama! I just wanted to say that going head-to-head against you in the White Lodge lynch was easily the most fun I have had playing mafia so far. You were a worthy opponent, and I had no idea until the last civ vote came in whether I'd be able to tie it up or not. By the way, INH, did that come down to a coin flip? I'm assuming Vomps switched a vote from llama to me.

I guess you can see from INH's post, but we actually really wanted to recruit you on Night 2. I was so mad when it didn't go through! MP hadn't been around and I was itching for an active BTSC partner in my first baddie role.

Thanks for such a fun game, INH and everyone!

Oh, and S~V~S, I haven't been able to shake the sneaking feeling that you may have missed the vote on purpose the day I was killed so we wouldn't have to kill Kate. Is that true? I know she's your best friend, so I was a little nervous about even voting her. You and MP posted your thoughts on FB instead of our chatzy though, so since I was out of town I never saw that you wanted Mata to die until later. I literally just randomized and voted because I wasn't going to be back in time to do it later, and I was nervous when Kate came up because I thought you might be against it.

Never mind, I seem to have caught up.

Matahari wrote:Why is Russti on night 1, but everyone else on night 2?

That is weird. Maybe I'm in slow motion, or a time eddy or something. Was there time travel in Twin Peaks?

thellama73 wrote:Yay! Welcome Mata.

I feel bad for Kate that she still thinks Roxy is on her team.

Shouldn't we refrain from commenting on matters related to the White Lodge? I mean, it's sort of the same game but also sort of not.

Welp, I tried. Looks like I'm not long for this world, unless we get fresh meat from the White Lodge and some kind mafia soul sees fit to kill them instead. Fingers crossed

That's fair, llama, but according to my math 4 is even worse odds than 3. If it's a lynch you're at 25% chance of getting the mafia, then they win with an NK, tied lynch, and another NK. If it starts with a night period you're back to 33%. I'd argue for 5 instead of 4, then you're at least guaranteed 2 real chances at a correct lynch.

thellama73 wrote:It's certainly a valid concern, Russ. The problem is that we don't know which of us is the mafia (although I have a hunch), and as long as we stick together the mafia will be unlikely to kill us out of self preservation. If you have any other insight into this matter, I'd be glad to hear it.

I have a hunch as to who the mafia is as well. I see no reason not to act on it at some point, honestly. When I said I expected strong resistance to my idea by one of you, I had the mafia member in mind.

Just a bit of math: if you do go to a 3-person endgame, a lone mafia has overwhelming odds of winning. If the endgame starts on a night phase, an NK makes it 1-1, which gives the mafia at least a 50% win chance. If the lynch goes to a tie the mafia also wins with a second NK. If it starts during a day phase you have a 1 in 3 chance of getting them, and if you're wrong they end it with their first NK. And all of this is assuming they don't get a teammate at some point and betray you, which to me seems a likely scenario in a theoretically 12-person game. (The original mafia party game is played with 7 civs and 2 baddies, I think because the odds are about even that way.)

thellama73 wrote:

Nevinera wrote: the mafia member probably won't kill *us*..

Not until the end, anyway. I am okay with a BWT lynch today. Russ is a fun guy to have around.

Thanks llama And hi Snowie and Nev! As I mentioned in the other game, I'm on a short trip and will be back in full force tomorrow. So thanks for not lynching me just yet.

I thought I'd bring up one piece of food for thought: we know there's a mafia among the 4 players who were already here, and you don't know if I could even possibly be mafia. I'm not, despite my recruitment last game, but it's ok if you don't believe me. Anyway, I'm just saying that for the non-mafia members of the group, after BWT it makes sense to try to lynch the mafia because if we get them there's a chance the rest of us all win. I expect heated resistance from at least 1 of you on this, and I don't really think you'll go for it, but I wanted to at least say it. I expect I'll be NKed tonight anyway, though, honestly. However, if I survive, you don't go for my plan, and you decide you need a fourth, I'll be willing to join up with you. I think it's a likely mafia win scenario, but it's also my best personal chance at long-term survival