The Syndicate

I actually felt really bad about my post mentioning Boogs after I had posted it...I definitely violated some posting rules there and was really guilty when FH brought up my post.

MP, to answer your question I figured out Epi was Zombie exactly how I said I did in the thread. I deduced that if he had been a different baddie role distancing would have been a much smarter tactic, so I figured he had been forced into the lynch switch against his will and thus must have been zombie. Turns out it was really unfortunate I was right. It also stunk that I didn't get a chance to properly defend, being on my phone and having limited internet while in Austria, but I honestly think I would've been lynched no matter what after you posted your case. You are truly an excellent casebuilder. The sheer size of those things is intimidating and convincing, and you tend to make really well-reasoned points, even if they're not always spot-on (as in my case).

I've really been enjoying playing with everyone so far! I feel like I'm starting to be able to read some of you, and I'm really excited for the next full-length game.

Wow, what a game! Thanks a lot for hosting, Andrew and Kate!

MP's insanifier was amazing, thanks for all the joy that gave me Kate and Andrew!

reywaS wrote:
Flyin' High wrote:I am feeling a bit nervous about this lynch because it seems like a nice bandwagon has formed on Russ, but for lack of a stronger candidate, I will vote for him as well.
It makes me a little nervous as well. The baddie team either just completely gave up on Russ or they are laughing their asses off right now. The signs do point to Russ being bad though, so that's where my vote will go.

Vote: Russ

They're laughing.

I just wanted to publicly apologize for my behavior this game. I've said some things I shouldn't have, and I should have thought about how being on vacation would affect my ability to play well and contribute. I just hope I haven't affected anyone's playing experience in a negative way. It's a shame to go out like this, because it was the most fun I've had playing so far. You guys are in for a fun game. Good luck civs! I think you have a great chance to win.

I admit to some frustration with my lynch. Epi was the first time I had correctly deduced someone's role, and being killed for being right felt like having defeat snatched out of the jaws of victory. I felt my intelligence being insulted, though I now realize that I'd not the case. It doesn't excuse my defense post, but I hope it clarifies somewhat why I reacted so vehemently. I was also shocked at how quickly opinion turned against me, and that so many were willing to go along on the lynch without hearing more from me. As I said, that was my fault for signing up when I knew I'd be away.

Having only been on my phone the last few days, rereads have been tough, do though I had suspicions before I left, I can't speculate on who baddies may be right now. You guys cam figure it out yourselves, I trust. I will say I don't think it would be fair to lynch boogs just because I flip civ. As I said, for me everything points to him most likely being civ, with a few posts that read as newbie. You can make your own decisions though.

Have fun, everyone! Pleasure playing. And thanks again to Kate and Andrew for hosting. I'm off to more vaca :-)

Wow, a guy goes Öb vacation and suddenly he's evil! I'm busy as have only phone access (and limited, at that) until Wednesday, as I stated. You can lynch me before then if you really want, or I can mount a defense when I get home. If you do lynch me, you'll understand why I can personally guarantee either boogs or indi is bad. I'm leaning that it was indi and Herobrine did us a favor, but boogs bears a look just in case.

For the little it's worth, is it so far-fetched that I made a correct judgment? I know it's only my third game, but I'm fairly intelligent. I explained clearly the logical steps I took at the time to conclude it was Epi. I believe BWT's post was saying that in rl I'm a logical guy, so he may believe me at least.

Beyond that, make your own conclusions at least until wed. MP has, apparently, and that worked out very well for us last lynch, so I can't fault people for following him. MP, in a recent post you said you don't feel bad about sometimes being wrong in your suspicions. If I die, I hope this changes your mind some. You have unmatched power in thus game, and killing everyone you suspect may eventually lead to a win since you're experienced and good, but at the expense of some civvie lives. I was thinking maybe I could win this one for the first time, that seems unlikely now. Shame you chose to do this when I can't adequately defend. Good night all

S~V~S wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:
S~V~S wrote:YAY~!!! Never so glad to have been mistaken
Well, what do you think, Elohcin next? And do you still feel like llama is bad as strongly as you did before, or does this change your opinion at all?
I don't know what to think of Elo~ she certainbly sounded bad in that last post.

And my reasons for suspecting Llama are still there, although this death makes it less likely, tbh. But still very possible~ although it is likely that Indi was a civ, and NOT Spider, which I find relieving since she did not really come across as baddie to me

But it was Llamas behavior that caught my eye, and he has not done much since to make me feel differently, although this result says to me that i could just really suck at reading Llama, time will tell.

SVS, could you explain what makes you think indi was a civ now?

Also, I'm gonna take credit for my claim that Epi was zombie. Excellent result! Big ups to MP for leading that, and following through when Epi caused some of us (me included, for a minute there) to doubt. I agree Eloh is a clear next step, and that an NK would probably save time. Not sure what SVS thinks would be gleaned from lynching her? I'd expect the votes to exactly mirror today's

*Votes Epi*

Epi's theory seems pure nonsense to me because of MP having been dead at the time. From a guy whose posts have, as I said before, been rigorously logical, it doesn't fit. I feel a lot better voting Epi now than before (not that I felt very bad about it before, anyway).

Hahaha oops. I misquoted I believe.

That's what I get for doing it by hand. Nap time! I hope more people weigh in, I'm going either Epi or Eloh but it'd be nice to get a little more consensus on who we should try to get first.

Yeah exactly. I can confirm what MP said, but don't know the answer to your follow-up question: "So a not civvie thing not a vote thing?"

As I said, doubt I could comment if I did know, but I don't. Sorry!

MovingPictures07 wrote: 1. No one has demonstrated that ship was bad or house was good because we cannot talk about prizes. I firmly know that house was good and that you were supposed to die.

I can vouch for this, though I know I lack MP's level of cred. Doubt I can say more. I know someone asked.

Ahhh, my brain hurts! Just what the baddies want, I expect.
I do actually agree with Epi that, in context, the quote MP is pulling reads as being frustrated with Snow Dog and Roxy's debate and not trying to quash all discussion. Not sure it affects your main point, just weighing in there. Also, I can vouch for MP that the house was a good choice, though I realize I don't have his cred.

I also think, as I said before, the Elohcin looks worse than Epi to me right now, and now that I've thought about it more I propose we lynch her first. Here's why:

I think Epi is most likely the zombie (if he is bad, of course). That's because if he were another baddie, it's possible that his teammates would allow him to be lynched and try to distance themselves from him (aside from Eloh, who was probably in trouble if he went down). On the other hand, if he were zombie he'd have been forced to use the switch, since it would have been his only chance before dying. If that's the case, Epi has no power anymore (except possibly using his team's NK), and thus is less valuable than the other baddies, who all have other powers to use. If everyone feels ok with an Eloh lynch, I think it has the potential to hurt the baddies more. Hope that makes sense. On the other hand, if people are more sure about Epi or feel a lynch for him would yield more info that's a fair argument to make.

Well Epi's defense there seemed pretty solid. MP is absolutely trustworthy, but he could have it wrong I guess...But if that is the case, where should we be looking for baddies? I do t have any other leads, and I refuse to condone randomizations on day 2.

Also, so everyone knows, I'll be on a mini vacation from tomorrow through Tuesday. I'll still vote and at least have short posts explaining why I vote the way I do, but don't expect much more than that.

And MP, I should've said this hours ago, but HOLY COW you're alive! Get it?

Oh! And I was gonna say, MP being a civvie adds a ton of weight to his case. Good to be able to trust someone for sure this game. Any ideas on how to keep him around this time?

Assuming MPs theory is correct, any preliminary thoughts on who the fourth could be? I realize it's early to worry about that, and obviously we'll get more info with time, but I'm curious to hear whom people are thinking of.

reywaS wrote:Wow, what a bunch of posts. I feel exhausted after reading all of that.

MP, you make a lot of sense with your case on Epignosis. I agree, we should lynch him today and go from there. I'm still not totally convinced that llama is not his team mate and the lynch was switched away from both of them, but I take your comments about llama's game play into consideration as I don't know him well at all. Interesting points you had there. Elohcin could be Epignosis team mate, but I do think you are off when it comes to SVS. First of all, she was targeted for a night kill by the baddies. Second, in my experience with SVS....and I have extensive experience with her both as her team mate (I've been team mates with her more than anyone else) and as a civvie going after her when she was also a civvie...she is more likely to get upset and give up as a civvie than as a baddie. I think she's a lot more cool and collected as a baddie strangely enough and much less likely to "give up". I could be wrong here, but I'm leaning civvie on SVS right now.

That was a lot to read! I think MP makes a very strong case. Good job to whoever rezzed him, and welcome back! I think MP is probably largely right. To me thread and vote evidence looks worse for Elohcin than Epi at the moment, but an Epi lynch is also a fine place to start. I think the case against SVS is a bit less strong than against those two, but if they flip bad I'll have an extremely close eye there

Ambray wrote:Oh, I meant Russ, not Ruff. xD

So..

PS. Russ, do I know you by another name? xD

Nope! This I'd my third mafia game, and first forum. Nice to meet you though!

Flyin' High wrote:
Russtifinko wrote:Wow. RIP, MP.

Boogs, I think your remark about vote manipulation was astute, but to me a lynch switch seems much more likely because MP only had 2 votes and being able to manipulate votes that much seems unlikely to me.

Regarding switches, if it was a baddie switch to save Epi it was probably a poor idea, since it seems likely to lead to a relynch tomorrow. I think a frame is slightly more likely. A civ switch by diamond sword seems nearly impossible to me. Unless there's unmentioned civ BTSC going on, no one else would have used that power to save Epi because they couldn't have known whether he was civ. That would mean Epi himself was Diamond Sword and switched the lynch to MP instead of the person he voted for, llama, and instead of stopping the lynch, which would seem smarter for an experienced player like him.

So in short, I think the baddies definitely caused this, though whether it's because Epi is one of them or to frame him I'm personally not sure yet
I am having a hard time seeing this as a frame-up on Epignosis by the baddies. Using up their one lynch switch Day 1 just feels like a very risky move to make unless they were saving one of their own. I agree though that it's not out of the realm of possibilities. I would like to read back and see who first suggested a possible frame-up. I also don't see this as having been done by the Diamond Sword because using the stop would make much more sense than taking a chance of switching a lynch onto a fellow civvie.

Day 1 Voting Order:
1. thellama (DP)
2. BWT (Snow Dog)
3. reywaS (thellama) 1
4. Ambray (BWT)
5. He-Man (Epignosis) 1
6. Boogs (Snow Dog)
7. blindfaeth (MP)
8. Flyin' High (Epignosis) 2
9. spaghetti (He-Man)
10. DP (spaghetti)
11. S~V~S (thellama) 2
12. Elohcin (DP)
13. LT (MP)
14. Russtifinko (thellama) 3
15. Roxy (Epignosis) 3
16. MP (Epignosis) 4
17. Epignosis (thellama) 4
18. indiglo (Epignosis) 5
19. Snow Dog (reywaS)
The numbers after thellama and Epignosis votes show how many votes each had as the lynch votes came in.
**I put together this vote order from my screencap of the poll. If anyone sees any mistakes please let me know!**

I think it's interesting to see how neck and neck the votes were between thellama and Epignosis. I still feel like Epignosis is mafia. I know it was suggested that the last minute votes for Epignosis might have been a save for llama, but indiglo said she was voting in the thread for Epignosis before MP even mentioned it at all so MP was actually the last to decide out of the blue to vote for Epignosis (even though he got his vote in just before indi). And we know that MP is civvie so he couldn't have been trying to save thellama with his vote.
The person who really stands out to me as peculiar is Elohcin. I didn't like thellama's rationale for voting DP and I thought Elohcin's was even weaker (just voting the lowest poster). There was tons of discussion taking place Day 1 and to vote the lowest poster felt like a cop-out to me.

I will try to read back through the thread some today, but I'm home sick and will probably spend more time curled up in bed, than in front of my computer.

Thanks for the analysis, FH! I agree that Elohcin looks bad here. I went so far as to vote llama, mainly because of his DP vote, and she did the same thing. Llama at least offered a rationale for his vote, even if it was a poor one in my opinion.

As for the current discussion on llama, I think if Epi was not framed then they're likely teammates. If he was framed, however, I don't think it gives us any info on llama. If I were bad and saving a teammate I'd keep other civ vote-getters alive to keep suspicion divided. I still don't trust llama, but this doesn't make him look any worse to me.

What really puzzles me is why MP? He got 2 votes, so he was drawing some suspicion himself. I think something he was saying must have threatened them somehow, but I can't for the life of me figure out what it could be. He did keep saying toward the end that ship was a baddie option in the poll, so maybe ship voters wanted to silence him? As FH noted he was also the last to decide to vote Epi, so if Epi is bad maybe it was a revenge thing. They could have even randomized. Anyway, any other theories or thoughts on why MP got it would be greatly appreciated.

One last thing: I wouldn't give too much weight to vite order for that poll. It matters some obviously, but lots of people voted at once. I remember being surprised that llama already had 2 when my vite went through, and his second vote came 5 before mine. So there was a big clump there

Snow Dog wrote:Going to bed now but I wasn't really here at the end i was watching The Dark Night. Amazed I wasn't lynched but glad I'm not.

Never thought MP or Epignosis were bad but hard to tell. Not convinced Llama is bad either. Had to decide between voting He Man and reywaS and chose the latter.

Snow Dog, my gut is still slightly civ on you, but things like this in the thread look really bad to me. Really, you weren't here at the end despite being the last vote? And I understand you not seeing llama or Epi as particularly bad, but it is strange to me that your top 2 candidates were both players you had had personal arguments with before. I know you were very busy with them, but none of the other discussions going on gave you any ideas whatsoever? Beware tunnel vision when things get personal.

He-Man, the vote order is on page 11, I believe. Roxy posted it. Do you have any suspicions besides Epi at the moment? I know you're convinced he's bad, and he may well be, but I'm a bit worried about tunnel vision there as well.

Linki with snowie: that's fair about your vote. I sympathize with wanting to protect yourself. Anything about rey's behavior (votes etc) ping you besides the fact that he was suspicious of you?

Oh and I wanted to ask Snow Dog, why such a late vote for rey? If what he posted is correct you hadn't mentioned him before. Furthermore, it was pretty clearly a throwaway. Did you feel strongly that the top 2 candidates, Epi and llama, were civ, did something rey said make you absolutely certain he was bad, or were you just reluctant to possibly be the deciding vote in the lynch?

Wow. RIP, MP.

Boogs, I think your remark about vote manipulation was astute, but to me a lynch switch seems much more likely because MP only had 2 votes and being able to manipulate votes that much seems unlikely to me.

Regarding switches, if it was a baddie switch to save Epi it was probably a poor idea, since it seems likely to lead to a relynch tomorrow. I think a frame is slightly more likely. A civ switch by diamond sword seems nearly impossible to me. Unless there's unmentioned civ BTSC going on, no one else would have used that power to save Epi because they couldn't have known whether he was civ. That would mean Epi himself was Diamond Sword and switched the lynch to MP instead of the person he voted for, llama, and instead of stopping the lynch, which would seem smarter for an experienced player like him.

So in short, I think the baddies definitely caused this, though whether it's because Epi is one of them or to frame him I'm personally not sure yet

Haha linki with MP....I guess I'll elaborate a tiny bit, but I reeeeally have to go to bed.

llama is my #1 suspect for today.

MP, your day 0 poll behavior seemed mostly to me to be trying to look at it from all angles, which is what a good civvie should do. That said, you are one clever baddie, and there's a chance it was a very very subtle push (albeit a bit late if that's the case). I'll keep watching you tightly but haven't been pinged too much yet.

The Roxy-llama and He-Man-Epi things definitely seem like personality clashes more than anything, as you said. For now I'm basically disregarding them as evidence because of that, though they could be useful later if we do find a baddie among them. I understand He-Man but think his posts often seem somewhat gut-based and scattered compared to Epi, who so far strikes me as a deeply anaytical and logic-driven player. And I think you were spot on about Roxy and llama.

Night all!

Ugh, so much going on....

*Voting llama* because his vote for DP without responding to my concern about his train of thought pinged me like crazy. I think a number of the other suspicions going around have merit, but for now that was what got me the most.

Wow! There is so much going on; this will be a tough lynch choice, but not for lack of options. Most vocal Day 1 I've been a part of, anyway.

Just to weigh in on Snowie, having read him again, my gut is saying possibly civ. I think if he were a baddie, maybe he'd be getting "coached" to be less defensive when he's brought up. I know it's WIFOM-y, but gut doesn't always go on posts alone.

Ambray, I have no read at all on BWT yet. I had forgotten he was mentioned at all, actually; could you pull the posts?

And did Boogs steal Roxy's pic, or was that one his all along? If he did steal it, I'll be really confused by those 2.

SO MUCH Linki....can't deal with it right now.

Hmm, as I think more, voting low posters seems less insidious than voting no-shows. I still won't be doing it on day 1, but if someone has checked in there's a somewhat better chance they're flying low instead of just unaware the game is happening.

He-Man wrote:Also look my post count is going up.

It's not about quantity it's about quality. I could spam the thread and get a 100 posts hmm I'm sure I did that in MOTU and I was bad.

Anyways looking at the low posters russ IMO has been making some sense and his posts seem ok with me albeit a few.

I can't account for LT but the others are notorious low posters, maybe LT just wants a bit of a break, she plays loads of mafia and never seen her play an extreme because of allegiance.

Epic has my eye now. That's for sure.

I agree that voting low posters on day 1 is bad form. Really DP, llama? He's posted once to say hi and missed the poll. Dull, sure, but reeking of evil? Maybe by day 3 or so.

And wanted to say He-Man is spot on here with his point on quality over quality. This is the second game in which I've been mentioned among low posters, a categorization to which I object. True, I post seldom, but when I do I (in my perhaps not-so-humble opinion) almost always add something original and valuable to the discussion. Many top posters get high counts because they post a sentence at a time (eg Snowie). There's nothing wrong with that, it's purely a stylistic difference. However, I object to the idea that I'm a less valuable player because I don't write that way.

He-Man, I agree with your point that most day 0 polls are likely useless. However, we do know that done people had info on this one, so isn't it an exception to that idea? I for one think this particular poll could end up being useful, even if it isn't enough to base a vote on at this point.

I think in MacGyver someone pulled up a list of low posters somehow. How do we do that, other than reading every post and tallying them up?

So far nothing about Roxy's attitude or style has pinged me, and I've seen llama's posts so far more as snark than bad intentions. Not that I'm leaning civvie on either yet, I'm just not leaning baddie either. Snow Dog I feel a bit more negative about, because of the vehemence of his ship argument and what I saw as going after Roxy for her vote. Not sure whether it'll merit a vote from me yet or not.

We could always randomize, of course.

Cool new pic, Roxy!

Linki: llama's point may be right, but it's pretty WIFOMy either way... Maybe later on I'll have to check past games and see if baddieness correlates with low posting or conflict avoidance in early game. I do think it's a minor breach of mafia etiquette to vote without posting anything of substance, even on day 0 when there's less to discuss as boogs seems to be saying. Not sure how much of a look it merits yet

Hadn't thought much about MPs ship reasoning, I'll have to read it again I suppose

The discussion about active players is a pretty interesting one, I think. As I said last game, I'm against voting no-shows really early in case they haven't checked in. That said, reywaS point about saying anything giving you a higher chance of getting suspicion made me think, it's not really fair to active players. I guess the only way to compensate is for everyone to agree to gradually look more closely at no-shows as time goes by?

Anyway, I know last game I occasionally refrained from posting things I thought would draw suspicion, or even posting non-essential things. That was partly for my own sake (I could avoid a lynch but not an NK, so I wanted to get baddies without drawing their attention) and partly for the other civvies, so they wouldn't waste time talking about me when they needed to be getting baddies. If something seemed really important I said it, of course. Just saying that these thoughts have affected my play.

I'm interested to see how the poll turns out. For the record, I think if there was a house push it must have been civvie led because of sheer number of votes. People here don't strike me as trusting or gullible enough to go for a baddie push on day 0 in such large numbers

Great discussion so far! Epi, I loved your analysis of our options.

I think S~V~S's info about there being two possible types of polls was pretty useful. Being a relative newcomer, I didn't know whether there were possibilities beyond what I had seen in my first 2 games. So thanks for that!

It seems pretty likely to me that this would be a boon poll. There are 3 options, which could correspond to civvies, baddies, and indies, respectively. If that is the case, I think nothing good could come of being on open water at night if the baddies can swim, so for me it comes down to bank and house. In real life I like my house a lot more than any bank, and since our house is currently dark and doorless I think we should spruce it up some before anything bad can happen.

*votes House*

The Syndicate

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