The Syndicate

Thanks too, Tony! Hehe.

Mistyx wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 10:55 pm

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 10:52 pm

Mistyx wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 10:46 pm optimal mech play i think is IC reveal and vig claim TOMORROW then we pick one player to punt and the other to vig

scum can’t risk a vig claim then because no shot outs them

Wait, I don't quite understand the second part I think. Why is it better for N2 vig shot than N1?

because an N1 shot can allow a D2 claim from scum

if there’s no n1 shot and two D2 claims we just win
if there’s an n1 shot and two D2 claims we have to pick between them
and if there’s no n1 shot and one D2 claim we have a chance to prove it
if there’s an n1 shot and one D2 claim we can’t confirm anything

Oh! I see. Thank you so much for explaining!

I also have a silly cayvie/X read and that's that X may not have been super involved in the game at various points because maybe cayvie is less likely to disappear if she's feeling more invested? No idea if this holds any water.

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 10:53 pm

Spoiler: show

sabie12 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 10:26 pm

cayvie wrote: ↑Wed Sep 23, 2020 11:44 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Wed Sep 23, 2020 11:40 pm

cayvie wrote: ↑Wed Sep 23, 2020 11:39 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Wed Sep 23, 2020 11:38 pm

cayvie wrote: ↑Wed Sep 23, 2020 11:37 pm

exactly: not actually bussing.

....okay, but why do we have to be teamed as opposed to like, not teamed

you don't have to be teamed. im just saying you're compatible.

you said we were the mafia team. what caused you to have that thought?

i feel like you're taking me in circles.

i saw you and hyena vote each other for what looked like silly-ish reasons. i thought, hmm this looks like it could be distancing. is there a reason for mafia to distance/bus in a flipless setting? yes, potentially, if they want to use the vengekill.

and here we are

So cayvie said this about bussing and now we know she was the vengeful one. I don't know if that means it happened for sure just figured that might be relevant

tbh this makes me think ran didn’t bus (or at least that it wasn’t planned). like why would cayvie say this if they were planning to bus? this seems more like a narrative scum would wanna push to make town paranoid of a bus even though scum probably didn’t intend to do it

Yeah, I think you're right. It seems transparent for no real reason.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 10:51 pm claims should be tonight, I think.

From everyone? Or just those in the POE + you?

Mistyx wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 10:46 pm optimal mech play i think is IC reveal and vig claim TOMORROW then we pick one player to punt and the other to vig

scum can’t risk a vig claim then because no shot outs them

Wait, I don't quite understand the second part I think. Why is it better for N2 vig shot than N1?

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 10:50 pm I think we just force the scum to shoot Hally though.

By this I mean... if she's town, let her get NKed. I don't want to tinfoil that yet. If she's alive at a critical stage and it becomes relevant, consider it thoroughly. I guess this is a small game though so maybe I'm thinking about this backwards.

I think we just force the scum to shoot Hally though.

sabie12 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 10:26 pm

Spoiler: show

cayvie wrote: ↑Wed Sep 23, 2020 11:44 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Wed Sep 23, 2020 11:40 pm

cayvie wrote: ↑Wed Sep 23, 2020 11:39 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Wed Sep 23, 2020 11:38 pm

cayvie wrote: ↑Wed Sep 23, 2020 11:37 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Wed Sep 23, 2020 11:36 pm i mean, my reason for voting hyena was that he didn’t have eevee in his top ten pokemon. so yea, i would say i don’t expect that to be taken very seriously

exactly: not actually bussing.

....okay, but why do we have to be teamed as opposed to like, not teamed

you don't have to be teamed. im just saying you're compatible.

you said we were the mafia team. what caused you to have that thought?

i feel like you're taking me in circles.

i saw you and hyena vote each other for what looked like silly-ish reasons. i thought, hmm this looks like it could be distancing. is there a reason for mafia to distance/bus in a flipless setting? yes, potentially, if they want to use the vengekill.

and here we are

So cayvie said this about bussing and now we know she was the vengeful one. I don't know if that means it happened for sure just figured that might be relevant

This whole exchange would be pretty funny if it was cayvie/Hally.

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 10:03 pm

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 5:26 pm I feel like sabie's hedging on cayvie seems a bit opportunistic.

what did you mean by this mp? isn’t hedging the opposite of being opportunistic?

Hmmm yeah I guess the wording was poor. It just felt like sabie was trying to have it both ways and it read awkwardly to me.

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 10:00 pm if mp is scum here she’s very good at faking emotion

I will warn you that I generally am (probably?) good at that, but I also think there's a certain range and/or totality of emotion across a game I can't quite fake.

That could be an outdated notion, but I also haven't really had opportunities to test it since my return because I keep rolling town for some reason.

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 9:54 pm if i buy mp’s reaction as pure and buy sabie’s derp as real, it’s just mist. but i tr mist so that feels wrong. but i don’t think ran would bus there. so i’m going wrong somewhere

What's the most likely scenario to you if Mist is town?

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 9:10 pm i think vig should shoot with mp/sabie/mist. and if they feel they’re at risk to be shot tonight (ie on cayvie) i think they should claim too so that scum can’t nk them tonight and then claim vig later on. i’m worried in a flipless setup about scum fake claiming and getting wrongly cleared off that. but idk if this mechanically correct

Wait, you think all three of us should claim then, are you sure?

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 8:46 pm

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 8:33 pm Like seriously why does anyone bus there? It gives us the most possible information. It makes even less sense because maybe scum do it if they know cayvie is fucked but Hyena was the last one to vote.

I really think we just yeet Mist and sabie? I should do analyses to be safe though. We should make sure to consider the bussing angle. But like... I don't see how it's worth it? cayvie didn't seem inevitable, right?

no i don’t think cayvie was inevitable at all. mist, sabie, you and even hyena up to the last minute all tr her, which is at least three town. and that’s like half the game

I didn't think so either but I can go back and try to get a read on thread temperature upon a re-read or something too.

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 8:36 pm

sabie12 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 8:31 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 8:25 pm

sabie12 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 8:21 pm

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 8:21 pm Wait per the role description how did cayvie choose Hyena if she isn’t here? How does that work?

Was it just the last person who voted?

im pretty sure its not? is this a derp clear?

I thought hyena was the most recent vote and I know I played a game where that happened before. Only reason I could see a bus here is if the mafia wanted the vengeful kill to go off since cayvie kinda disappeared?

well we know hyena didn’t bus and he was the last vote. tony i assume is ic. so if there’s a bus it could only be ran. i dont really think ran had to bus though?

I guess a Ran bus is possible? I don't really get it though.

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 8:32 pm

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 8:30 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 8:29 pm maybe it’s actually just mist. but i feel like mist wouldn’t wanna kill hyena because hyena was tr’ing her? unless she thought he wouldn’t after cayvie flipped

Sure but if the team is cayvie/Mist then they could have just been completely disorganized?

ig. it’s also possible scum thought hyena was spewed town off cayvie. iirc he was like her only sr

Oh, you're right! She said hyena/X as her last real reads post. That makes sense.

Okay, I'll be back for real.

I still feel sabie sounds town though, so I'm leaning Mist by default. Okay, the game doesn't have to be solved now. Why do I have to have stuff to do. Ughhhhh

Like seriously why does anyone bus there? It gives us the most possible information. It makes even less sense because maybe scum do it if they know cayvie is fucked but Hyena was the last one to vote.

I really think we just yeet Mist and sabie? I should do analyses to be safe though. We should make sure to consider the bussing angle. But like... I don't see how it's worth it? cayvie didn't seem inevitable, right?

cayvie's thought processes were so foreign to me in that practice game, maybe that influenced me wrongly here. I guess it doesn't matter now. I'm glad you all didn't listen to me.

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 8:29 pm maybe it’s actually just mist. but i feel like mist wouldn’t wanna kill hyena because hyena was tr’ing her? unless she thought he wouldn’t after cayvie flipped

Sure but if the team is cayvie/Mist then they could have just been completely disorganized?

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 8:27 pm i feel like i should suspect mp rn but her whole reaction to thinking cayvie was town to now feels so pure

Honestly I totally get if you or anyone else wants to given what we know now. I accept that fate. I'm that much more determined to show you that I'm town because I have now become a pivotal misyeet the scum needs to push. I'm not going to let it happen.

Could explain why Mist's WIM was pretty low? Weird though.

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 8:25 pm

sabie12 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 8:21 pm

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 8:21 pm Wait per the role description how did cayvie choose Hyena if she isn’t here? How does that work?

Was it just the last person who voted?

im pretty sure its not? is this a derp clear?

Then it's Mist then? Hahaha.

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 8:23 pm

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 8:19 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 8:17 pm

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 8:12 pm Scum will have to make me eat the N1 kill to keep me from upping my WIM. I dare you.

fucking same tbh

Can we lock hands as town now?

i was ready to do that but like, not after that flip

That’s fine, just yeet me after sabie and Mist please bevause that should win us the game unless there’s a bus? Why the fuck would someone do that?

Okay okay I need to do other things seriously stop being an addict MP7. I’ll see what analysis I can do later. Wow that is fucking hype.

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 8:20 pm ok im just lock clearing ran off that. tony too but he’s probably just ic

new poe can be mist/mp/sabie. last wolf has to be there

I think it’s sabie. Her hedging on cayvie was strange given that flip.

Wait per the role description how did cayvie choose Hyena if she isn’t here? How does that work?

Well I’m so fucking glad to admit I was wrong LOL

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 8:17 pm

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 8:12 pm Scum will have to make me eat the N1 kill to keep me from upping my WIM. I dare you.

fucking same tbh

Can we lock hands as town now?

Holy shit, I CAN DO INTERACTIVE ANALYSIS THEN

Wait what the fuck that means cayvie was vengeful right?!?!

Scum will have to make me eat the N1 kill to keep me from upping my WIM. I dare you.

Hyena wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 8:10 pm

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 8:06 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 8:04 pm i don’t feel great about cayvie flipping scum with four votes in an eight player game :/

Should we just assume she isn't and try to solve from there?

Yes, I think this is the best plan. And honestly, with how EoD went, I'm willing to just call you and Hally town at this point. It sucks that nobody else was here to talk game.

I'm with you. I don't want to take both of you as town for granted, but I also am feeling that way at the moment. I'm going to really try to find more time to dig into all of this, it's been a rough start but I think we can still win.

I really need to like get back to work and do other things for a while though. I'll be back as soon as I can.

I apologize for my part in things being chaotic and I've had a hard time seeing eye to eye more than I feel I usually do? I'll try harder to resolve any differences in opinion with those of you. I still don't quite understand why it's been so hard for people to get anywhere on me this game, so please, if there's anything else I can do please let me know and I'll try my best to bridge the gap for you.

We can still win this regardless of what happens. We can keep the game friendly and low-key and still try to up the effort. I believe in us.

I should have fought harder against it maybe? I don't know. This has been hard.

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 8:04 pm i don’t feel great about cayvie flipping scum with four votes in an eight player game :/

Should we just assume she isn't and try to solve from there?

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 8:02 pm this was a blah EoD

Yeah, it really sucked.

I think it's best to stay forward-looking though. We can win this.

Hyena wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 8:01 pm

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 7:59 pm I guess the wagons are Hally, Hyena, and cayvie which is Not Good fmpov. Dammit.

Crap.... we probably should've had wagons on at least one of Tony or Sabie just for pressure.

Well I guess we'll have all of N1 and D2 to try to better coordinate with some additional information despite the lack of flips, right?

That really is blah. I hope cayvie is just scum but... I didn't see real agenda there.

Hyena wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 7:59 pm

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 7:58 pm Wait I'm confused. I guess cayvie has 4 votes so she's going to die anyway?

If there's a tie, there's no yeet.

Oh shit that's right, well, I guess cayvie is dead. Thankfully I voted off-wagon.

[VOTE: MIST] aubergine

I really don't know.

I guess the wagons are Hally, Hyena, and cayvie which is Not Good fmpov. Dammit.

Wait I'm confused. I guess cayvie has 4 votes so she's going to die anyway?

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 4:17 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 7:40 am Current Vote Count
cayvie (1): Hally
Hyena (1): cayvie
M Plus 7 (1): TonyStarkPrime, Ranmilia
Ranmilia (2): Mistyx, M Plus 7
Hally (2): Hyena, sabie12

Sorry about the poll everyone. I'll try to fix it for next time so I don't have to do manual vote counts.

Since this vote I have unvoted and Tony moved his vote to cayvie and Ran moved to cayvie, I think?

So it’s 3 for cayvie, 1 for hyena, 1 for ran, 2 for Hally, and then my vote.

Okay so since then... Hyena unvoted but now he's back on cayvie, and Mist is on sabie... is that it?

I really wish I knew what the current vote tally was, shit, I forgot to finish updating that.

Hyena wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 7:54 pm

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 7:53 pm I'm just unsure what cayvie's reads of Scirrus and sabie really were at that point. Are we sure those are in an order?

It doesn't matter. She named Hally and I as scumreads, and apparently Sabie and Scirrus are in the same tier as us. Why aren't Hally and I in a lower tier?

How does this make sense for scum cayvie to do though?

I'm just unsure what cayvie's reads of Scirrus and sabie really were at that point. Are we sure those are in an order?

Hyena wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 7:50 pm

Hyena wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 7:48 pm

cayvie wrote: ↑Thu Sep 24, 2020 12:41 pm cayvie

tony
misty

sabie
hally
scirry
hyenie

(mp)

Meh. Lists both Sabie and Scirrus/Ran in the bottom tier, but I don't think this clears Cayvie plus either of those as pairs.

The worst part of it is that she didn't even give any reason why those two are bottom tier along with Hally and I. Apparently, Scirrus was more scummy from her perspective than Hally was even though she called both Hally and I scum.

Okay, that doesn't make sense, let me look at that again.

If I trust Hyena and Hally the most right now actually, that means I may be fool, but it also means my pool is cayvie/Mist/Ran/Tony, then of those I think cayvie is town, then Mist/Ran/Tony, okay, yeah, those were the same names I said to Hyena. I'm thinking in circles. I think that's where I'm at but honestly I'm willing to trust you all to some degree too.

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 7:43 pm

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 7:35 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 7:33 pm

Hyena wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 7:27 pm So, here's a game. Pick three people that you think will contain at least one mafia. Mine is probably MP, Ran, and Hally.

mp/sabie/cayvie? but this really says nothing because odds are there’s mafia in any group of three i pick if i assume tony is ic

Why are our reads diametrically opposed?

i have no idea. why are mist/hyena/tony/ran not town?

I could see any of them as town I guess which speaks volumes as to how my reads are all fsalkfjasfjas haha. But right now of those I would say... Hyena is most town, then Ran or Tony, then Mist? Hmmm.