The Syndicate

Running tally

Timmer 43 (Green Book 10, Vice 9, The Favourite 14, Bradley Cooper 1, Viggo Mortensen 1, Mahershala Ali 4, Rachel Weisz 1, Mary Queen of Scots 2)
JJJ 23 (BlacKkKlansman 14, Rami Malek 5, If Beale Street Could Talk 4)
Dunya 16 (Roma 16)

Good luck tomorrow, guys! I'll try to update points as we go!

Yup, I think your chances of an upset are better then you think!

So Dunya, you need Roma to pretty much sweep. Best pic would be +9, best director +4, best screenplay +4, the rest +1 each. You have a max possible point total of 34.

JJJ, you also need a near sweep. You need klansman to win BP (+9), and director (+4), either klansman or Beale Street to take screenplay (+4), Malek will likely win actor (+4), that puts you to 31 points. Then 5 other categories between klansman and Beale that could get you +1 each for a max possible point total of 36.

I'm at 29 already, however none of my 3 big films are considered likely to win BP or bd (Only green book had a real maybe shot) so I likely will get zero points from the top 2 categories. A screenplay win for the favourite is a strong likelihood which is +4. That's a probable total of 33. After that it's just a pile of nominations but none of which are guarantees. Maybe Ali wins supporting? That would put me over. But if he doesn't, and Roma dominates, let's say, we could have an upset for sure!

Timmer 29 (Green Book 5, Vice 8, The Favourite 10, Bradley Cooper 1, Viggo Mortensen 1, Mahershala Ali 1, Rachel Weisz 1, Mary Queen of Scots 2)
JJJ 10 (BlacKkKlansman 6, Rami Malek 1, If Beale Street Could Talk 3)
Dunya 10 (Roma 10)

With only costumes guild left to pick a winner, our Oscar trio is set: Timmer, Dunya and JJJ.

Nominee points coming up!

dunya wrote: ↑Tue Feb 12, 2019 3:27 pm please let me get to the oscars timmer :''''(

You are, Rico can only pick up at best 1 more point.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Feb 12, 2019 3:17 pm How can I possibly still be alive?

Rami Malek.

Round 5 is actually well on the way to complete! Only a few guilds left to pick winners:

Timmer 44
JJJ 15
Dunya 15
Ricochet 8

PGA winner: Green Book (Timmer +9)
SAG winners: Rami Malek (JJJ +4), Mahershala Ali (Timmer +4/+1)
ADG winners: The Favourite (Timmer +1)
ASC winner: 0
ACE winner: The Favourite (Timmer +1)
DGA winner: Roma (Dunya +4)
CAS winner: 0
WGA winners: 0

Still to come:

CDG winners: Timmer/JJJ/Rico in the hunt

Top 3 move on to the big show!

Round 5, the guilds. The nomination points are:

Timmer 28
JJJ 11
Dunya 11
Ricochet 8

Some guilds have announced winners already so I'll check into that.

The Baftas just happened, so let's add in winners points:

Timmer 43 (The Favourite 21, Green Book 4, Vice 7, Bradley Cooper 1, Mary Queen of Scots 3, Rachel Weisz 5, Viggo Mortensen 1, Amy Adams 1)

Dunya 26 (Roma 22, Emma Stone 1, Timothee Chalamet 1, Beautiful Boy 1, Cynthia Erivo 1)

Ricochet 10 (First Man 7, Viola Davis 1, Christian Bale 1, Margot Robbie 1)

JJJ 16 (BlacKkKlansman 9, If Beale Street Could Talk 2, Rami Malek 5, Claire Foy 1)

Golden 7 (Glenn Close 1, Lady Gaga 1, Melissa McCarthy 1, Sam Rockwell 1, Mary Poppins Returns 3)

So I'm sorry to Golden, you have been eliminated from the game.

Man A Star Is Born fizzled so much it couldn't even get a directing nod... crazy...

dunya wrote: ↑Wed Jan 16, 2019 9:18 am is it a close run or is there a clear winner there too?

It's close between 3 people, I'd say.

dunya wrote: ↑Wed Jan 16, 2019 2:03 am Are you still in the game on your other forum, timmer?

I made it through the globes but I've got a mealy 3 nomination points at bafta.if they don't become wins I'll be out...

I love your focus, man!

Ok, so round 4 is now the baftas, who announce their winners in a few weeks.

Points on noms:

Timmer 27 (The Favourite 11, Green Book 3, Vice 6, Bradley Cooper 1, Mary Queen of Scots 3, Rachel Weisz 1, Viggo Mortensen 1, Amy Adams 1)

Dunya 11 (Roma 7, Emma Stone 1, Timothee Chalamet 1, Beautiful Boy 1, Cynthia Erivo 1)

Ricochet 10 (First Man 7, Viola Davis 1, Christian Bale 1, Margot Robbie 1)

JJJ 8 (BlacKkKlansman 4, If Beale Street Could Talk 2, Remi Malek 1, Claire Foy 1)

Golden 7 (Glenn Close 1, Lady Gaga 1, Melissa McCarthy 1, Sam Rockwell 1, Mary Poppins Returns 3)

You know, in hindsight I should have stuck with the original schedule. So round 4 is now baftas, round 5 the guilds. JJJ is back in! I'll work out baftas nomination points tomorrow.

I guess I could have put that to a vote? Do you guys want the baftas back in?

Golden wrote: ↑Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:08 pm Hey timmer, did we cut the baftas round somewhere along the way?

Yeah we just didn't have enough players to warrant that many rounds. And the critics choice and baftas tend to be similar so it made sense to drop one.

DharmaHelper wrote: ↑Mon Jan 14, 2019 12:48 am Lmao what's the BO start Date? April 1st again? (RIP Marvel monies)

We draft in April, for films that open May 1st and onwards.

Lol... it's only 3 months away!

Current points in round 5 (but first bafta)

Timmer 28
JJJ 11
Dunya 11
Golden 8
Ricochet 8

Here are the tiebreak rules.

In the case of a tie during any round, a winner must be determined between the tying studios. To settle this, the points each studio acquired in nominations will be removed. That means which ever studio earned the most points based solely on wins will advance. If this process does not determine a winner then a hierarchy of wins will be established, where a studio with the rights to the winning film in this succession of categories will move on: Best Film, Best Director, Best Screenplay (Original then Adapted), Best Lead Actress then Actor, Best Supporting Actress then Actor, Animated, Foreign, Documentary, Score, Cinematography, Editing, Song, Production Design, Costumes, Makeup, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing. (Note that the hierarchy is for film rights, not actor rights.)

Golden earned 8 points from wins today, JJJ only 5, so Golden moves on (thanks to that Gaga/Close tie!)

I'll double check in the morning but I've got:

Timmer - 53
Dunya - 29
Ricochet - 27
JJJ - 20
Golden- 20
DH 17

So DH I'm sorry you are out, and I'll check the tiebreak rules in a bit.

Points for Round 3 (with eventual winners adding more)

Critics choice winners are announced January 13th.


Ricochet - 13 (First Man - 10, Christian Bale - 2, Regina King - 1)

JaggedJimmyJay - 15 (Deadpool 2 - 3, If Beale Street Could Talk - 5, BlacKkKlansman - 5, Rami Malek - 1, Claire Foy - 1)

Golden - 12 (Boy Erased - 1, Mary Poppins Returns - 8, Glenn Close - 1, Melissa McCarthy - 1, Lady Gaga - 1)

Dunya - 14 (Beautiful Boy - 1, Roma - 8, Timothee Chalamet- 1, Emily Blunt - 2, Nicole Kidman - 1, Emma Stone - 1)

DharmaHelper - 15 (Can You Ever Forgive Me? - 3, A Star Is Born - 8, John C. Reilly- 1, Richard E. Grant - 1, Charlize Theron - 1, Amandla Stenberg - 1)

Timmer - 41 (Green Book - 6, The Favourite - 14, Vice - 9, Widows - 3, Mary Queen of Scots - 2, Ryan Gosling - 1, Rachel Weisz - 1, Mahershala Ali - 1, Amy Adams - 1, Bradley Cooper - 1, Viggo Mortensen - 2)

Four of these six will move to round 4 - the guilds.

These are tomorrow night, good luck, everyone! Top 4 will move on!

Rico (Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again!)
Golden 2 (Ocean's 8, Mary Poppins Returns)
DH (A Star Is Born)
Timmer 3 (Widows, The Favourite, Mary Queen of Scots)
JJJ (BlacKkKlansman)

The last (I think?) of the guild nominees... Costume designers guild noms:

The Costume Designers Guild has announced its nominees in film and television categories for 2018.

In the contemporary film races, “Crazy Rich Asians” was nominated alongside “Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again,” “Ocean’s 8,” “A Star Is Born” (extending its streak of nominations from every single industry group so far) and “Widows.”

For period film, nominees were “BlacKkKlansman,” “Bohemian Rhapsody,” “The Favourite,” “Mary Poppins Returns” and “Mary Queen of Scots.”

Nominated for sci-fi/fantasy were “Aquaman,” “Avengers: Infinity War,” “Black Panther,” “The Nutcracker and the Four Realms” and “A Wrinkle in Time.”

Dga also has a best first time director category and a star is born is on that list as well so dh gets a bonus point!

Dunya 1 (Roma)
DH 2 (A Star Is Born x2)
JJJ 1 (BlacKkKlansman)
Timmer 2 (Vice, Green Book)

DGA nominees

Your 2019 DGA nominees:

Bradley Cooper, "A Star Is Born"
Alfonso Cuarón, "Roma"
Peter Farrelly, "Green Book"
Spike Lee, "BlacKkKlansman"
Adam McKay, "Vice"

Rico 1 (First Man)
DH 1 (A Star Is Born)

Cas nominees (cinema audio)

MOTION PICTURE – LIVE ACTION

“Black Panther”
Production Mixer: Peter Devlin, CAS
Re-recording Mixer: Steven Boeddeker
Re-recording Mixer: Brandon Proctor
Scoring Mixer: Christopher Fogel, CAS
ADR Mixer: Doc Kane, CAS
Foley Mixer: Scott Curtis

“Bohemian Rhapsody”
Production Mixer: John Casali
Re-recording Mixer: Paul Massey
Re-recording Mixer: Tim Cavagin
Re-recording Mixer: Niv Adiri, CAS

“First Man”
Production Mixer: Mary H. Ellis, CAS
Re-recording Mixer: Jon Taylor, CAS
Re-recording Mixer: Frank A. Montaño
Scoring Mixer: Ai-Ling Lee, CAS
ADR Mixer: Thomas J. O’Connell
Foley Mixer: Richard Duarte

“A Quiet Place”
Production Mixer: Michael Barosky
Re-recording Mixer: Brandon Proctor
Re-recording Mixer: Michael Barry, CAS
Scoring Mixer: Tyson Lozensky
ADR Mixer: Bob Lacivita
Foley Mixer: Peter Persuad, CAS

“A Star is Born”
Production Mixer: Steven A. Morrow, CAS
Re-recording Mixer: Tom Ozanich
Re-recording Mixer: Dean Zupancic
Scoring Mixer: Jason Ruder
ADR Mixer: Thomas O’Connell
Foley Mixers: Richard Duarte

MOTION PICTURE – ANIMATED

“Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch”
Original Dialogue Mixer: Michael Miller, CAS
Re-recording Mixer: Gary A. Rizzo, CAS
Re-recording Mixer: Juan Peralta
Scoring Mixer: Noah Scot Snyder
Foley Mixer: Blake Collins, CAS

“Incredibles 2”
Original Dialogue Mixer: Vince Caro, CAS
Re-recording Mixer: Michael Semanick, CAS
Re-recording Mixer: Nathan Nance
Scoring Mixer: Joel Iwataki
Foley Mixer: Scott Curtis

“Isle of Dogs”
Original Dialogue Mixer: Darrin Moore
Re-recording Mixer: Christopher Scarabosio
Re-recording Mixer: Wayne Lemmer
Scoring Mixer: Xavier Forcioli
Scoring Mixer: Simon Rhodes
Foley Mixer: Peter Persaud, CAS

“Ralph Breaks the Internet”
Original Dialogue Mixer / Re-recording Mixer: Gabriel Guy, CAS
Re-recording Mixer: David E. Fluhr, CAS
Re-recording Mixer: Alan Meyerson, CAS
ADR Mixer: Doc Kane, CAS
Foley Mixer: Scott Curtis

“Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse”
Original Dialogue Mixers: Brian Smith, Aaron Hasson, Howard London, CAS
Re-recording Mixer: Michael Semanick, CAS
Re-recording Mixer: Tony Lamberti, CAS
Scoring Mixer: Sam Okell
Foley Mixer: Randy K. Singer, CAS

MOTION PICTURE – DOCUMENTARY

“Fahrenheit 11/9”
Production Mixer: Mark Ray
Re-recording Mixer: Andy Kris
Re-recording Mixer: Lee Salevan
Re-recording Mixer: Skip Lievsay, CAS

“Free Solo”
Production Mixer: Jim Hurst
Re-recording Mixer: Tom Fleischman, CAS
Re-recording Mixer: Ric Schnupp
Scoring Mixer: Tyson Lozensky
ADR Mixer: David Boulton
Foley Mixer: Joana Niza Braga

“Quincy”
Production Mixer: Al Hicks
Re-recording Mixer: Jonathan Wales, CAS

“They’ll Love Me When I’m Dead”
Production Mixer: Rob Filmore, CAS
Re-recording Mixer: Brian Riordan, CAS

“Won’t You Be My Neighbor?”
Re-recording Mixer: Pete Horner
Re-recording Mixer: Jeff King

My film site has that very rule, actually! But if you do keep one, it takes out your first round actor pick, so you have to be sure.

After all those updates, here's where we are for round 4:


Current points in round 4 (as guild announcements come I'll update this post)

JJJ 11
Timmer 28
Dunya 11
DH 19
Golden 8
Ricochet 8

Added CDG points.

JJJ 2 ( BlacKkKlansman, If Beale Street Could Talk )
DH 2 (Can You Ever Forgive Me, A Star Is Born )
Dunya 1 (Roma)
Timmer 2 (Green Book, Vice)

And, last one for today, the WGA writers nominees:

ADAPTED
"BlacKkKlansman"
"Black Panther"
"Can You Ever Forgive Me?
"If Beale Street Could Talk"
"A Star Is Born"

ORIGINAL
"Eighth Grade"
"Green Book"
"A Quiet Place"
"Roma"
"Vice"

ACE points:

JJJ 2 (BlacKkKlansman, Deadpool 2)
Rico 1 (First Man )
Dunya 1 (Roma)
DH 1 (A Star Is Born)
Timmer 3 (The Favourite, Green Book, Vice)

ACE Eddie Award nominees

Drama:
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
Roma
A Star is Born

Comedy:
Crazy Rich Asians
Deadpool 2
The Favourite
Green Book
Vice

Rico 1 (First Man)
Dunya 1 (Roma)
DH 1 (A Star Is Born)
Timmer 1 (The Favourite)

ASC cinematography nominees

Roma
A Star is Born
The Favourite
First Man
Cold War

ADG points

Rico 1 (First Man)
JJJ 1 ( Welcome to Marwen)
Golden 1 (Mary Poppins Returns)
Dunya 1 (Roma)
DH 1 (A Star Is Born)
Timmer 1 (The Favourite)

Art Directors Guild nominees

“The Ballad of Buster Scruggs,” Jess Gonchor
“Bohemian Rhapsody,” Aaron Haye
“The Favourite,” Fiona Crombie
“First Man,” Nathan Crowley
“Roma,” Eugenio Caballero

Fantasy Film:
“Black Panther,” Hannah Beachler
“Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald,” Stuart Craig
“The House With a Clock in Its Walls,” Jon Hutman
“Mary Poppins Returns,” John Myhre
“Ready Player One,” Adam Stockhausen

Contemporary Film:
“A Quiet Place,” Jeffrey Beecroft
“A Star Is Born,” Karen Murphy
“Crazy Rich Asians,” Nelson Coates
“Mission: Impossible – Fallout,” Peter Wenham
“Welcome to Marwen,” Stefan Dechant



Animated Film:
“Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch,” Colin Stimpson
“Incredibles 2,” Ralph Eggleston
“Isle of Dogs,” Adam Stockhausen, Paul Harrod
“Ralph Breaks the Internet,” Cory Loftis
“Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse,” Justin K. Thompson

DharmaHelper wrote: ↑Mon Jan 07, 2019 3:57 pm @timmer A cursory google/glance at 2019's release slate tells me two things:

1. If we do this again and get more people, everyone will be lucky to have maybe 1 good movie in their rosters
2. I'm gonna need a high draft position.

Oh absolutely. On my film site, the only parts of my roster even in awards contention are If Beale Street Could Talk, Christian Bale and Emily Blunt.

Duuuude.

The points from PGA:

Timmer 3 - Vice, Green Book, The Favourite
DH 1 - A Star Is Born
Dunya 1 - Roma
JJJ 1 - BlacKkKlansman
Golden 0
Rico 0

How did none of us grab Bohemian Rhapsody lol?

Current points in round 4 (as guild announcements come I'll update this post)

JJJ 7
Timmer 21
Dunya 9
DH 13
Golden 6
Ricochet 6

SAG points so far, for who gets to round 4:

Rico 3 (Christian Bale, Margot Robbie, Regina King)
JJJ 4 (Rami Malek, BlacKkKlansman x3)
Golden 5 (Glenn Close, Melissa McCarthy, Lady Gaga x2, Mary Poppins Returns )
Dunya 5 (Timothee Chalamet, Emily Blunt x2, Emma Stone, Beautiful Boy)
DH 9 (Richard E. Grant, John David Washington, A Star Is Born x4, Can You Ever Forgive Me x2, Ant-Man & The Wasp)
Timmer 14 (Viggo Mortensen, Mahershala Ali, Rachel Weisz, Amy Adams, Bradley Cooper x2, The Favourite x3, Mary Queen of Scots, Vice x2, Green Book x2)

The second set of guild nominations for Round 4 - screen actors Guild!

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role:
Christian Bale, “Vice”
Bradley Cooper, “A Star Is Born”
Rami Malek, “Bohemian Rhapsody”
Viggo Mortensen, “Green Book”
John David Washington, “BlacKkKlansman”

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role:
Emily Blunt, “Mary Poppins Returns”
Glenn Close, “The Wife”
Olivia Colman, “The Favourite”
Lady Gaga, “A Star Is Born”
Melissa McCarthy, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”


Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role:
Mahershala Ali, “Green Book”
Timothee Chalamet, “Beautiful Boy”
Adam Driver, “BlacKkKlansman”
Sam Elliott, “A Star Is Born”
Richard E. Grant, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role:
Amy Adams, “Vice”
Emily Blunt, “A Quiet Place”
Margot Robbie, “Mary Queen of Scots”
Emma Stone, “The Favourite”
Rachel Weisz, “The Favourite”

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture:
“A Star Is Born”
“Black Panther”
“BlacKkKlansman”
“Bohemian Rhapsody”
“Crazy Rich Asians”

Outstanding Action Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture:
“Ant-Man and the Wasp”
“Avengers: Infinity War”
“The Ballad of Buster Scruggs”
“Black Panther”
“Mission: Impossible – Fallout”

Points for Round 3 (with eventual winners adding more)

Critics choice winners are announced January 13th.


Ricochet - 13 (First Man - 10, Christian Bale - 2, Regina King - 1)

JaggedJimmyJay - 15 (Deadpool 2 - 3, If Beale Street Could Talk - 5, BlacKkKlansman - 5, Rami Malek - 1, Claire Foy - 1)

Golden - 12 (Boy Erased - 1, Mary Poppins Returns - 8, Glenn Close - 1, Melissa McCarthy - 1, Lady Gaga - 1)

Dunya - 14 (Beautiful Boy - 1, Roma - 8, Timothee Chalamet- 1, Emily Blunt - 2, Nicole Kidman - 1, Emma Stone - 1)

DharmaHelper - 15 (Can You Ever Forgive Me? - 3, A Star Is Born - 8, John C. Reilly- 1, Richard E. Grant - 1, Charlize Theron - 1, Amandla Stenberg - 1)

Timmer - 41 (Green Book - 6, The Favourite - 14, Vice - 9, Widows - 3, Mary Queen of Scots - 2, Ryan Gosling - 1, Rachel Weisz - 1, Mahershala Ali - 1, Amy Adams - 1, Bradley Cooper - 1, Viggo Mortensen - 2)

Four of these six will move to round 4 - the guilds.

Yeah Grant has a few wins to get, still, though McCarthy will have to be happy with noms. And I'm a bit surprised at how badly ASIB played out at the globes,... it only got song? That's shocking.

If this year is going to come down to Bohemian Rhapsody vs green book, it will be one of the weakest years ever.

Yup.

" if a studio owns a doc, foreign or animated film they only earn 10 points for BP-equivalent wins, not their genre-specific categories (that counts as "All other categories" below)"