The Syndicate

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Tue Mar 28, 2023 9:53 am
pyxxy wrote: ↑Mon Mar 27, 2023 10:54 pm
Dennis wrote: ↑Mon Mar 27, 2023 10:47 pm Why do you get to tell us not to hammer though
because of hedgehog when town decided to that hammy whammy was some fucking genius megamind brilliance

I note in my prepared post that actually I think the hammer was fine because of how the day actually played out it's just connected to me feeling tight about clearly no one actually reading my post

and honestly WWA + Sabi are the only reason I think hammering wasn't the end of the world because they actually took the fucking time to use it to solve and talk and investigate and think through what was possible, without those two, and okay let's add Seanzie too he held out for a while and used the time well, honestly during my catchup it seemed like y'all were happy to just let nook and falcon shut down the thread discussion _after_ they let lily do her little antispew/spew dance (I still hate and don't understand the spew terminology)

like it's so incredibly transparent that those two wanted the least amount of discussion possible when all that could be produced from the thread was a better and better POE as we had more time to think about it together

on that note since he seems to be the SOD wagon of choice [VOTE: falcon] aubergine but my solve is falcon/nook and I don't care who goes first

Yeah, pyxxy could be wolf. Whole lotta blame for others not talking yesterday that's somehow Nook & I'm fault?

When, ironically, I prolly posted more last RD than the last couple.

Nvm actually this counts as a read
Well at least there's that

Sorry if this has already been answered but @falcon45ca if you're town and saying we should move off you and onto whatever the backup plan is, where do you suggest we move?

As a PoE slot, you're in the best position to solve the game around yourself and the suspicions on you, but when I asked you yesterday you just went "idk I'll pick random names" and one of them was Wilgy of all people, who died and flipped doctor last night. I mean, I can believe you just threw out names without caring but why don't you care? You don't want to leave a legacy? Or you just aren't much into the game?

If we give you breathing space for the rest of the day, will you work with us to solve or are you going to continue to not give reads?

I don't need to give a jail pool for the scenario when falcon is town, do I? I mean even if I nail both remaining wolves in the PoE I'm not necessarily gonna jail the one who performs the kill, and if the jailkeeper still has their shot, obviously they're gonna use it to guarantee a kill.

Sabiplz wrote: ↑Tue Mar 28, 2023 6:38 pm
WindwardAway wrote: ↑Tue Mar 28, 2023 6:36 pm
Sabiplz wrote: ↑Tue Mar 28, 2023 6:32 pm
WindwardAway wrote: ↑Tue Mar 28, 2023 6:29 pm If falcon flips mafia I'm jailing pyxxy
That is the part I'm worried about now because if pyxxy isn't wolf then it's a fake red check.
Oh you mean if mafia fakes a red by hitting my jail target with a kill?
Yeah idk I was worried about that earlier but talked myself out of worrying about it because mafia purposely missing a kill just so the target gets lunched during the day is counterproductive

Like if they target town!Pyxxy with a kill and no kill happens, and we lunch Pyxxy, we lunch a town instead of having a townie die AND possibly a townie getting lunched

Like that doesn't benefit mafia enough for it to be a viable strategy since we'd just be plowing through everyone else right after that and then they can't even shut me up for another day because we waste the day killing their missed night kill.
I guess so. I'm just overthinking this.

Vjdmkdnxksksbdlsksb

I also don't think it's pyxxy anymore for reasons but I trust your choice.

Oh I'm definitely less certain on Pyxxy than I was before but I have a reason for this.

And like I thought everyone was aware a jailkeep can be either a red or a green depending on if I jailed the killer or the kill target

Neon pointed this out in Lily's defense and she's correct. I always knew that.
But I purposely pushed being overly confident that Lily was a red check because I wanted the thread to push on Lily to see if she'd show up and do something not wolfy, and she showed up and did something wolfy.

You guys have to keep this in mind, when I die, but I was always aware of it. Sometimes I just lie to push a narrative, even as town.

Sabiplz wrote: ↑Tue Mar 28, 2023 6:32 pm
WindwardAway wrote: ↑Tue Mar 28, 2023 6:29 pm If falcon flips mafia I'm jailing pyxxy
That is the part I'm worried about now because if pyxxy isn't wolf then it's a fake red check.

Oh you mean if mafia fakes a red by hitting my jail target with a kill?
Yeah idk I was worried about that earlier but talked myself out of worrying about it because mafia purposely missing a kill just so the target gets lunched during the day is counterproductive

Like if they target town!Pyxxy with a kill and no kill happens, and we lunch Pyxxy, we lunch a town instead of having a townie die AND possibly a townie getting lunched

Like that doesn't benefit mafia enough for it to be a viable strategy since we'd just be plowing through everyone else right after that and then they can't even shut me up for another day because we waste the day killing their missed night kill.

Sabiplz wrote: ↑Tue Mar 28, 2023 6:31 pm
WindwardAway wrote: ↑Tue Mar 28, 2023 6:27 pm
Seanzie wrote: ↑Tue Mar 28, 2023 6:23 pm
WindwardAway wrote: ↑Tue Mar 28, 2023 5:46 pm
Seanzie wrote: ↑Tue Mar 28, 2023 8:50 am Okay, I've thought through the mech a bit more, and this is actually good. Not as good as I thought, but...

If we elim a wolf today, then EITHER 1.) WWA survives another day, which is kinda nice for threadhealth/solving reasons, or 2.) WWA dies and we get a clear.

In particular @WindwardAway I'd still like you to specifically say something like "if X flips wolf, I am going to target Y" shortly before EoD, and STICK TO THAT. This guarantees that if you die, we get a clear. Can you do this? (let me know if you have any questions about why this works).
I will do this, you have my word. I know exactly how this works, and I won't deviate from the pool of targets I give before EoD.
You need to give a single name if you want it to work.
I literally gave a pool of targets
If I jail the mafia jailkeeper and they jail me, I thought the kill would not go through on me but it would on someone else? Because I'd be roleblocked first and then the factional would process? Or am I completely misunderstanding this

I'm probably completely misunderstanding this wtf am I saying

Lmao
I think you might be?

Tho my worry is now the wolf targeting the other poed player if they aren't the one jailed (but targeted the jailed) one so it gives you a fake red check?

I dunno if that makes sense.

Uhhh

Maybe make a pool of two instead of three?

Idk

Ahhhhh

See i gave a pool cause for some reason I thought there was still a chance the kill would go through if the scum jailkeeper is still alive but idk why i thought that lol

Seanzie is right i trust that someone who isn't me understood the mech interactions better than I did because I clearly couldn't even remember that mafia had a jailkeeper this morning lmao

Seanzie wrote: ↑Tue Mar 28, 2023 6:30 pm
WindwardAway wrote: ↑Tue Mar 28, 2023 6:27 pm
Seanzie wrote: ↑Tue Mar 28, 2023 6:23 pm
WindwardAway wrote: ↑Tue Mar 28, 2023 5:46 pm
Seanzie wrote: ↑Tue Mar 28, 2023 8:50 am Okay, I've thought through the mech a bit more, and this is actually good. Not as good as I thought, but...

If we elim a wolf today, then EITHER 1.) WWA survives another day, which is kinda nice for threadhealth/solving reasons, or 2.) WWA dies and we get a clear.

In particular @WindwardAway I'd still like you to specifically say something like "if X flips wolf, I am going to target Y" shortly before EoD, and STICK TO THAT. This guarantees that if you die, we get a clear. Can you do this? (let me know if you have any questions about why this works).
I will do this, you have my word. I know exactly how this works, and I won't deviate from the pool of targets I give before EoD.
You need to give a single name if you want it to work.
I literally gave a pool of targets
If I jail the mafia jailkeeper and they jail me, I thought the kill would not go through on me but it would on someone else? Because I'd be roleblocked first and then the factional would process? Or am I completely misunderstanding this

I'm probably completely misunderstanding this wtf am I saying

Lmao
If two JKs target eachother, both people are blocked and protected, meaning neither can submit a NK or die. Thus, if you die, you weren't JK'd, and so the person you targeted is clear.

Ok
Got it now, I gave my target

If for whatever reason you swerve off of falcon and flip a wolf, I'm jailing falcon instead

If falcon flips mafia I'm jailing pyxxy

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Tue Mar 28, 2023 6:26 pm
WindwardAway wrote: ↑Tue Mar 28, 2023 6:24 pm
falcon45ca wrote: ↑Tue Mar 28, 2023 6:12 pm Why does anybody care about the hammer if you're so sure I'm Maf?
Because personally I'd like to talk and solve and come up with a backup plan in case you're not mafia
And I have neither the time nor energy right now to do more than leave snarky comments in the thread

Just go to the backup plan dude, I'm town

Where's the proof
I'm gonna keep saying this until you either obvtown or flip town because I don't see any reason why you should ever be cleared
And no, I don't know lily's wolf meta, but since mafia has a jailkeeper in the game, she must've been defending at least one wolf.
I won't reconsider you until either you flip, or someone who isn't you flips mafia jailkeeper.
And that basically means I'm not reconsidering. I'm not even tunnelled on you; I just stopped caring.

Seanzie wrote: ↑Tue Mar 28, 2023 6:23 pm
WindwardAway wrote: ↑Tue Mar 28, 2023 5:46 pm
Seanzie wrote: ↑Tue Mar 28, 2023 8:50 am Okay, I've thought through the mech a bit more, and this is actually good. Not as good as I thought, but...

If we elim a wolf today, then EITHER 1.) WWA survives another day, which is kinda nice for threadhealth/solving reasons, or 2.) WWA dies and we get a clear.

In particular @WindwardAway I'd still like you to specifically say something like "if X flips wolf, I am going to target Y" shortly before EoD, and STICK TO THAT. This guarantees that if you die, we get a clear. Can you do this? (let me know if you have any questions about why this works).
I will do this, you have my word. I know exactly how this works, and I won't deviate from the pool of targets I give before EoD.
You need to give a single name if you want it to work.

I literally gave a pool of targets
If I jail the mafia jailkeeper and they jail me, I thought the kill would not go through on me but it would on someone else? Because I'd be roleblocked first and then the factional would process? Or am I completely misunderstanding this

I'm probably completely misunderstanding this wtf am I saying

Lmao

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Tue Mar 28, 2023 6:12 pm Why does anybody care about the hammer if you're so sure I'm Maf?

Because personally I'd like to talk and solve and come up with a backup plan in case you're not mafia
And I have neither the time nor energy right now to do more than leave snarky comments in the thread

Falcon/Neon/pyxxy/Nook is my poe, not in that order, I'm aware it's the consensus and imo that's fine

If you hammer before I come back, one of those will be my jailkeep, but if we don't flip the mafia jailkeeper today, I'm not exactly sure what will happen. From what I understood, the mafia jailkeeper can use their jail and kill at the same time, so even if we flip a goon, the jail will likely happen.

But if the jail blocks and protects, and I am targeted, then I guess I won't be the kill. If the mafia jailkeeper isn't in my current PoE, I probably won't be blocked at all and I'll just die instead tbh.

Sabiplz wrote: ↑Tue Mar 28, 2023 4:16 pm @WindwardAway what do you want to today? Keep solving or?

I want sleep and then I have a dumb work presentation, I don't really have time to put into this until later in the day

If you guys don't suddenly decide to hammer, maybe I'll actually say something useful when I come back

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Tue Mar 28, 2023 3:44 pm
WindwardAway wrote: ↑Tue Mar 28, 2023 3:20 pm
Porscha wrote: ↑Tue Mar 28, 2023 11:55 am
falcon45ca wrote: ↑Tue Mar 28, 2023 10:08 am Why does lily as my partner go hard TRing my slot? Especially in a game where I've been in my Maf meta?

Obvious TMI, especially given that I have zero problems as wolf getting flipped by teammates.
Based on my view of her as a wolf I'm inclined to agree (has nothing to do with you being okay with getting bussed lol)
I think he's exactly the mafia jailkeeper lol

You are exactly wrong

L

Oh?

El

Where's the proof?

Seanzie wrote: ↑Tue Mar 28, 2023 8:51 am
WindwardAway wrote: ↑Tue Mar 28, 2023 4:26 am From the OP, for clarification:

"If players with Roleblock and Jailkeep abilities target eachother on the same night, roleblock actions will go through whereas the jailkeep actions will not"

Yeah this is what I said already except that I said they cancel out lol
But to the same effect, essentially. Jailkeep doesn't work, and in this setup that's all that matters cause we don't have investigatives.
That line is where a RB and a JK target eachother. If two JKs target eachother, both are blocked and both are protected.

Geez I'm so sleep deprived what the fuck
Yeah, I am aware that was for a 6lock setup, but I'm wondering why tf I quoted that after the doctor flipped.

Seanzie wrote: ↑Tue Mar 28, 2023 8:50 am Okay, I've thought through the mech a bit more, and this is actually good. Not as good as I thought, but...

If we elim a wolf today, then EITHER 1.) WWA survives another day, which is kinda nice for threadhealth/solving reasons, or 2.) WWA dies and we get a clear.

In particular @WindwardAway I'd still like you to specifically say something like "if X flips wolf, I am going to target Y" shortly before EoD, and STICK TO THAT. This guarantees that if you die, we get a clear. Can you do this? (let me know if you have any questions about why this works).

I will do this, you have my word. I know exactly how this works, and I won't deviate from the pool of targets I give before EoD.

Porscha wrote: ↑Tue Mar 28, 2023 11:55 am
falcon45ca wrote: ↑Tue Mar 28, 2023 10:08 am Why does lily as my partner go hard TRing my slot? Especially in a game where I've been in my Maf meta?

Obvious TMI, especially given that I have zero problems as wolf getting flipped by teammates.
Based on my view of her as a wolf I'm inclined to agree (has nothing to do with you being okay with getting bussed lol)

I think he's exactly the mafia jailkeeper lol

Sabiplz wrote: ↑Tue Mar 28, 2023 8:28 am One of these days yall will say I'm town and not probably town but whatever I will accept it.

Falcon is not really answering the elephant in the room in regards to lily allegations is a look

Wwa, neon is actually a V good wolf so uhhhh yea.

Will keep neon in mind in that case
I still think yeet falcon
I haven't read anything since whenever I last posted, just got home from work and I don't have the energy to, sorry

From the OP, for clarification:

"If players with Roleblock and Jailkeep abilities target eachother on the same night, roleblock actions will go through whereas the jailkeep actions will not"

Yeah this is what I said already except that I said they cancel out lol
But to the same effect, essentially. Jailkeep doesn't work, and in this setup that's all that matters cause we don't have investigatives.

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Tue Mar 28, 2023 2:55 am
Seanzie wrote: ↑Tue Mar 28, 2023 12:58 am
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Tue Mar 28, 2023 12:54 am Nice
Indeed, tell me more.
Mafia flips are good.

So who do you think is partnered with lily?
Yesterday you said solving the game was a "tomorrow Nook problem" and it's now tomorrow, so where's your solve?

Porscha wrote: ↑Tue Mar 28, 2023 3:09 am
pyxxy wrote: ↑Tue Mar 28, 2023 2:39 am
Seanzie wrote: ↑Mon Mar 27, 2023 11:22 pm I'd like to remind everyone that

If we chop a wolf today, WWA can clear someone from the PoE tonight, which is HUGE.

So, today could really break the game open if we can do well. Also, under exactly zero circumstances should we ever end the day before WWA says something like

"If we flip a wolf here, I am going to target BLAH".
I'm gonna run out of pockets but this is a smart and correct observation.

I'm going to expand the theorizing a little. If we flip town, it's the opposite logic. We can't have WWA specify her JK target because then wolves could target the same person for the nk and then the lack of a nk would be a fake red check.
Also unsure if worth for wolves to not kill wwa just to fake a red check when we are aware its possible the check could be faked by the theory you just put forward

Maybe wwa could make a group of 2-3 ppl she will jk to make them guess? For gokd measure? Idk lol

If I gave a pool of like 3 players I might jail, and mafia get funny and think they can get me a false clear by killing one of them, and I don't jail that player and the player flips town, then congrats i would be alive and a poe player would be dead lmao

That's like incredibly high risk for low reward

pyxxy wrote: ↑Tue Mar 28, 2023 2:21 am
pyxxy wrote: ↑Fri Mar 24, 2023 9:11 pm weird sideways thought as I check discord and see marmot's post about postcap lifting + hammer.....of 7

tutuu only reached like 5 today, right? I have a thought that I'm gonna put on a burner and cook low and slow
@WindwardAway making this a separate post too now that I've had some time to chill

pulled out of my notes dump:
pyxxy wrote: ↑Mon Mar 27, 2023 10:41 pm [viewtopic.php?p=1034480#p1034480](viewtopic.php?p=1034480#p1034480) - I forgot to write down what I was thinking….I think it was something about how there should be either 1 or 2 wolves already on the wagon so that the 3rd could be off it if it got hammered? [ed note: I’ve added this ed note after deciding to post all my notes, aka this is like meta commentary, anyways I went off to research who was on tutuu at that time and then came back to add to this note, ed note 2 I forgot about this bit woops]
D2 vote history:

I searched for "aubergine" on every page

ties are ordered alphabetically

none of Neon's votes during D2 are in vote tags, so I had a lot of fun ctrl+f'ing through her ISO for "vote" and then opening the post in the thread in order to find which votes it was between

-----------------------------------
the entire D2 voting history typed out:

Spoiler: show
tutuu | __ -> sabi, sabi(1)
neon | __ -> pyxxy pyxxy(1) sabi(1)
sabi | __ -> sabi, sabi(2) pyxxy(1)

________(unsure if this was a serious vote from Neon, not counting it: viewtopic.php?p=1033439#p1033439)

WWA | __ -> pyxxy, pyxxy(2) sabi(2)
WWA | pyxxy -> tutuu, sabi(2) pyxxy(1) tutuu(1)
Seanzie | __ -> falcon, sabi(2) falcon(1) pyxxy(1) tutuu(1)
DrWilgy | __ -> falcon, falcon(2) sabi(2) pyxxy(1) tutuu(1)
Dennis | __ -> falcon, falcon(3) sabi(2) pyxxy(1) tutuu(1)
(^not vote tagged, he just posted about it)
pyxxy | __ -> falcon, falcon(4) sabi(2) pyxxy(1) tutuu(1)
lily | __ -> tutuu, falcon(4) sabi(2) tutuu(2) pyxxy(1)
neon | pyxxy -> lily falcon(4) sabi(2) tutuu(2) lily(1)
neon | lily -> falcon falcon(5) sabi(2) tutuu(2)
tutuu | sabi -> falcon, falcon(6) tutuu(2) sabi(1)
neon | falcon -> tutuu falcon(5) tutuu(3) sabi(1)

Wilgy's VC post happens here: viewtopic.php?p=1034079#p1034079

Seanzie | falcon -> tutuu, tutuu(4) falcon(4) sabi(1)
pyxxy | falcon -> unvote, tutuu(4) falcon(3) sabi(1)
pyxxy | unvote -> nook, tutuu(4) falcon(3) nook(1) sabi(1)
tutuu | falcon -> sabi, tutuu(4) sabi(2) falcon(2) nook(1)
Seanzie | tutuu -> falcon, tutuu(3) falcon(3) sabi(2) nook(1)
tutuu | sabi -> falcon, falcon(4) tutuu(3) nook(1) sabi(1)
Dennis | falcon -> nook, falcon(3) tutuu(3) nook(2) sabi(1)
tutuu | falcon -> sabi, tutuu(3) falcon(2) nook(2) sabi(2)
lily | tutuu -> sabi, sabi(3) falcon(2) nook(2) tutuu(2)
neon | tutuu -> pyxxy, sabi(3) falcon(2) nook(2) pyxxy(1) tutuu(1)
falcon | __ -> tutuu, sabi(3) falcon(2) nook(2) tutuu(2) pyxxy(1)
pyxxy | nook -> falcon, falcon(3) sabi(3) tutuu(2) nook(1) pyxxy(1)
Dennis | nook -> tutuu, falcon(3) sabi(3) tutuu(3) pyxxy(1)
tutuu | sabi -> falcon, falcon(4) tutuu(3) sabi(2) pyxxy(1)
lily | sabi -> tutuu, falcon(4) tutuu(4) pyxxy(1) sabi(1)

That sabi(1) vote is sabi. I don't know when sabi stop self-voting, not clear in their ISO.

Neon must have moved off me onto falcon at some point near EOD.

If both of these are considered falcon votes instead, then my reconstructed D2 VC matches Marmot's official count.

My reconstructed final VC:
falcon(4) tutuu(4) - pyxxy(1) sabi(1) + 2 votes for falcon =

final VC D2 from marmot's post:
6 - tutuu => Lilypetal, WindwardAway, Dennis, Neon, Sabiplz, falcon45ca
4 - falcon45ca => tutuu, Seanzie, DrWilgy, pyxxy
-----------------------------------

Now we can finally get to researching my slow cooked thought.

"tutuu only reached like 5 today, right? I have a thought that I'm gonna put on a burner and cook low and slow"
Like I said I don't 100% remember what I was thinking but something about 1-2 wolves on the tutuu wagon

Now I see that tutuu only reached 4 before near EOD and lily was on that wagon so eh don't think there's really much to make of it. Ah well. Maybe someone else will find this work more useful.

P.S. @Porscha did you forget to vote D2?

You definitely had better luck than I did, lol
I searched for aubergine yesterday when trying to find the vote history of the 4-way tie and got 0 results, not sure what went wrong

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Tue Mar 28, 2023 1:20 am
Seanzie wrote: ↑Tue Mar 28, 2023 12:45 am
falcon45ca wrote: ↑Tue Mar 28, 2023 12:36 am I AM TOWN!

Since some of y'all seemed to have missed it
Tell me where your head is at.
I really haven't read much, but I'll say this...

So, it's totally normal and indeed correct to be sus of my slot currently...I bet there's Maf who are semi-shielding me, or at least not pushing me.

Are there any players you can think of that fit this description?

Yes, lily who flipped mafia and spent the whole of D2 saying she'd vastly prefer yeeting Sabi to you/tutuu wagons and said she'd vote tutuu just to save you

Lmao

Not a very useful question

Sabiplz wrote: ↑Mon Mar 27, 2023 11:25 pm
Seanzie wrote: ↑Mon Mar 27, 2023 11:22 pm I'd like to remind everyone that

If we chop a wolf today, WWA can clear someone from the PoE tonight, which is HUGE.

So, today could really break the game open if we can do well. Also, under exactly zero circumstances should we ever end the day before WWA says something like

"If we flip a wolf here, I am going to target BLAH".
My worry is one shot mafia JK?

If falcon doesn't flip jk (which we won't know)

Can two jail keeps jail keep?

You mean if I jail the maf jailkeeper? I think the jails cancel out which still prob means I die in all likelihood
Idk if maf jailkeeper can jail on the same night they kill, that's the one question I have left about this
I assumed not, but it's prob in the OP in the one part i didn't read (other than the 6lock setup, hahahahaha)

If maf has their jail remaining and they can use it tonight, I can pretty much guarantee they're gonna use it to prevent a repeat of N2 lol. They need me dead, and they can't risk that I redcheck or greencheck a slot.

pyxxy wrote: ↑Mon Mar 27, 2023 10:59 pm
WindwardAway wrote: ↑Sun Mar 26, 2023 9:17 am So let me try something.

@pyxxy
@falcon45ca
@NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME
@DrWilgy
@Sabiplz

Between the five of you, which other two do you think are most likely to be paired with Lily? Give reasons if you have them readily available. The three of you who are town among you are in the best possible position for solving the game right now.
hi. I missed you. So much that I actually have a second prepared post for you as a reward for actually trying to solve when the thread decided that hammering was some galaxy brain im-really-smart-guis play

here ya go, sorry that the formatting is a mess, it's also copied directly from my notes

but hey, glad you're alive
---
[viewtopic.php?p=1034559&hilit=falcon#p1034559](viewtopic.php?p=1034559&hilit=falcon#p1034559) - lily sr falcon a bunch yet it feels entirely based on tutuu being scum, see: [search.php?st=0&sk=t&sd=d&sr=posts&t=24 ... =1084&ch=0](search.php?st=0&sk=t&sd=d&sr=posts&t=24 ... =1084&ch=0)

assuming lily’s team was setting her up deep for getting widely townread (until Sean+Wilgy changed this), then this is just preemptive bussing of falcon because he was already POE so I would see how it’s a good play to just start shoving him in the woodchipper, after all it just won Cosmere mafia, also later see: Porscha and me on falcon D2 [viewtopic.php?p=1034192&hilit=falcon#p1034192](viewtopic.php?p=1034192&hilit=falcon#p1034192), we were both ready to push falcon D3 if tutuu flipped town, so lily is clearly reading the thread and acting accordingly, or at least listening to her scummates, no reason not to start bussing falcon as insurance

[search.php?st=0&sk=t&sd=d&sr=posts&t=24 ... =1084&ch=0](search.php?st=0&sk=t&sd=d&sr=posts&t=24 ... =1084&ch=0) lily posts when searching for “nook”

[viewtopic.php?p=1031635&hilit=nook#p1031635](viewtopic.php?p=1031635&hilit=nook#p1031635) - press X to fucking doubt

[viewtopic.php?p=1034532&hilit=nook#p1034532](viewtopic.php?p=1034532&hilit=nook#p1034532) - okay going through more of this search ISO is making me pause on nook a little because lily kinda treats falcon and nook the same….but fuck I gotta think that there’s one wolf in falcon/nook. there just has to be.

I think it would be useful to know if lily is someone who struggles to fake reads as scum, because that imo would be light confirmation of 1 in falcon/nook, because 1 would be easy to piggyback the thread’s general scummy opinion of…..and the other would just be scum

I’m still down for falcon/nook being the solve though, I think it’s totally possible, if a bit WIFOM in lily’s ISO

[viewtopic.php?p=1034291&hilit=wolf#p1034291](viewtopic.php?p=1034291&hilit=wolf#p1034291) - there’s a wolf between y’all quote, lmao

[viewtopic.php?p=1034318&hilit=wolf#p1034318](viewtopic.php?p=1034318&hilit=wolf#p1034318) - P.S. for anyone reading lily’s ISO for me, I was looking to see how she treated me as well, and you’re gonna need to search “pyx” in addition to “pyxxy”

I'm gonna look through this again maybe tonight if I don't fall asleep after work because I'm a zombie rn, but yeah lily's mentions of falcon and Nook in the thread are also something I noticed seemed weird. I think I said something about it yesterday and it probably got lost in the mess after lily attempted to claim rber

There is literally nothing that gives me pause on yeeting falcon, lol

The thing that gives me pause on voting nook is that he unvoted lily when she claimed pr and said he wanted to consider her claim might be true. I would actually say this is like the most blatant wolf I've ever seen, which I saw someone use to describe wolf!nook in some other game, except that when I claimed pr on D1 his handling of the situation didn't look like it came from someone who knew the setup. I know people have disagreed with me that it was towny, but right then and there I thought he spewed himself VT, and then he did it again yesterday after lily fakeclaimed. Idk, it would be loads easier for wolf!nook to just go "yeah no" and yeet lily for cred to save his own skin since lily was a guaranteed flip even if we hadn't hammered imo. And I don't believe nook is both the world's most obvious wolf and also really good at pretending he doesn't know which setup we're in. I think it's one or the other, for solving reasons he is still in my PoE despite that I think he's town, and he's the only town-ish read I have that I think I could possibly be wrong on.

Sabiplz wrote: ↑Mon Mar 27, 2023 10:55 pm @Seanzie @WindwardAway @Dennis how certain are we on Porscha in light of lily's flip?

I'm Mico tinfoiling in case the order I think we should go is incorrect or something.

98% or something
Because I am pretty damn sure that wolves would've sent porscha to perform the kill if she were town, because she was consensus town (there were growing doubts on lily) and she was at the top of my readlist the entire day

Seanzie wrote: ↑Mon Mar 27, 2023 10:44 pm Regardless, JJJ taught me (indirectly, I'm not cool enough for direct lessons from Jay) about the magical clear line (this is my phrasing, not his).

We are currently at 7v2. If we can collectively form a towncore of 5 people, and if we stick to that towncore, we win. Conversely, if we can form a PoE of 4 people, and we stick to that PoE, we win. Now, I am NOT at all suggesting we should just choose a PoE and elim through it, BUT, I am no longer as concerned with the exact PERSON we elim, and more concerned with who is above and who is below the magical clear line.

Does anyone have any issues with anyone above the magical clear line on my list? Does anyone believe someone should be moved up above the magical clear line (this is unnecessary, but it wouldn't hurt if we had one more above it).

I fully agree with your magical clear line

pyxxy wrote: ↑Mon Mar 27, 2023 10:44 pm
pyxxy wrote: ↑Sun Mar 26, 2023 2:19 am Q for the crowd: I'm down to vote nook again like I did yesterday but I'm going skiiing tomorrow and won't be online for maybe the next 18 hours starting from this post (+-30 minutes).

Should I trust y'all not to hammer? Hammering wilgy really fucked up hedgehog bad + I want time to investigate/re-read/VCA if/when we get told what happened last night.
Q for the crowd: I'm down to vote nook again like I did yesterday but I'm going skiiing tomorrow and won't be online for maybe the next 18 hours starting from this post (+-30 minutes).

Should I trust y'all not to hammer? Hammering wilgy really fucked up hedgehog bad + I want time to investigate/re-read/VCA if/when we get told what happened last night.

jfc

I made two posts D3. Two posts. This post was 50% of my posts.

Lol
I'm holding my vote for a bit
I have no reason to hammer today

Seanzie wrote: ↑Mon Mar 27, 2023 10:47 pm Ehh... maybe I shouldn't worry as much about the magical clear line today, because if we manage to hit a wolf tonight, WWA gives a clear (or ends the game), so it actually does behoove us to find the most likely wolf, as hitting a wolf today softlocks the game IMO.

Well, depends on how good my reads are
I guess I lucked out on jailing lily but not sure if I'll pull that off again

sometimes I have really good accuracy as a PR and other times I just use it as an excuse to FPS.
Either way I'm gonna have to give you guys a list of potential jail targets for tonight cause I'm almost definitely going to die
Wolves prob saved their jailkeeper for tonight as I suspected they did earlier, since if they didn't use it on N2 they'll use it on N4 to secure the kill on me (there's like no way they'd use it on an odd night because it would be a crapshoot)

So if we yeet the maf jk, then I have a chance at blocking a kill again.
If we yeet a goon, I assume the jk will have to kill and not jail? Sorry I gotta double check that but basically if we yeet a wolf at all there's a chance we solve the game, right?

pyxxy wrote: ↑Mon Mar 27, 2023 10:41 pm [ed note: This is a prepared post that I wrote around 2am yesterday after being awake for like 20 hours. It is slightly unhinged.]

I wish there were more scum in this setup so that both falcon and nook could flip red but the game would continue and I would get the mega town clear that I deserve for pushing both of them D2

haha can you tell I’m tight for getting scumread for being afk *when I fucking said I was going to be afk for 18+ hours*

maybe I should have bolded it or something but like I already felt self-conscious about posting it like my online habits would really matter that much to other people, guess I should have bold and underlined it and @’d the entire game too for good measure

please bear with me as I work through my salt, thank you, I’ve only been waiting all day to make this post
[ed note: I was going to remove this line if I didn't wake up mad. unfortunately that was not the case]

here is a spoiler with all my thoughts on D3 which I was able to start reading *when I fucking got home at 11pm after leaving home at 5:30am*, and which y’all hammered *despite me specifically asking for that not to happen*

Spoiler: show
porscha willing not to hammer, ty based porscha

WWA the fucking champ

Dear WWA: nook was just me continuing yesterday pressure, get to

[viewtopic.php?p=1034794#p1034794](viewtopic.php?p=1034794#p1034794) - this deserves its own post, tldr falcon and nook

[viewtopic.php?p=1034815#p1034815](viewtopic.php?p=1034815#p1034815) - imo my wagon never really got anywhere D2, it was just Neon (and yourself wavering on me), but maybe I’m misremembering

is there one in falcon/nook then? that seems pretty reasonable, but yeah I also need to reevaluate lily ISO to check this idea e.g. does lily/POE make sense

[viewtopic.php?p=1034480#p1034480](viewtopic.php?p=1034480#p1034480) - I forgot to write down what I was thinking….I think it was something about how there should be either 1 or 2 wolves already on the wagon so that the 3rd could be off it if it got hammered? [ed note: I’ve added this ed note after deciding to post all my notes, aka this is like meta commentary, anyways I went off to research who was on tutuu at that time and then came back to add to this note, ed note 2 I forgot about this bit woops]

[viewtopic.php?p=1034818#p1034818](viewtopic.php?p=1034818#p1034818) - fucking love me some VCA, hell yeah wilgy

[viewtopic.php?p=1034902#p1034902](viewtopic.php?p=1034902#p1034902) sorry love I was skiing and the rest of town hammered even though I asked them not to [viewtopic.php?p=1034760#p1034760](viewtopic.php?p=1034760#p1034760)

[viewtopic.php?p=1034913#p1034913](viewtopic.php?p=1034913#p1034913) - lmao thanks for clearing seanzie

[viewtopic.php?p=1034925#p1034925](viewtopic.php?p=1034925#p1034925) - I’m sorry I couldn’t be in the thread to help you stand up for what you thought was right

nook’s wavering at SOD D3 about what could have happened mechanically + wavering after lily’s clearly bs claim is either too scummy to be scum…..or just scum. combined with falcon’s pushback on WWA wanting to solve + both wanting to hammer, I’m fine with yeeting them both

I have a meta/strategy question for after the game, [ed note after deciding to post these notes: I redacted this]

[viewtopic.php?p=1034988#p1034988](viewtopic.php?p=1034988#p1034988) - town fucking leader right here

antispew as as term confuses me because lily was spewing everywhere but yes I do agree that like page 52 or something onwards was mostly useless for solving bc she successfully managed to derail the thread

sabi is wrong but tbh sabi has earned staying alive until D3 in any games I’m in from now on bc this is fine-aged-wine town effort

[viewtopic.php?p=1035031&hilit=defend#p1035031](viewtopic.php?p=1035031&hilit=defend#p1035031) - lmao this would be really funny, alas

[viewtopic.php?p=1035049#p1035049](viewtopic.php?p=1035049#p1035049) - could you explain this from an elim logic perspective? (this is me following up on my concerns way at SOD D3 about not wanting to out our other PR for a flip, which I was wrong about)

well shit Neon is also too scummy to be scum

hm okay, the thing is, if scum Neon knows this is wrong because lily is scum, is this all bs in order to look towny about theoretical solving that will turn out to be wrong so it doesn’t actually help town win at all? yet it might get town read after lily’s flip?

[viewtopic.php?p=1035122#p1035122](viewtopic.php?p=1035122#p1035122) - ummmmmmmm, this is awkward

[viewtopic.php?p=1035142#p1035142](viewtopic.php?p=1035142#p1035142) - ty marmot for clarifying that this flip should not have said goon, but also ty marmot for the additional info

@WWA, this is not a critique and you were smart to leave a legacy but again I just wish I was around to say “hey, if lily flips mafia, then we’re like 99.99% in the Protect setup, and doc will protect you tonight, it’s gonna be okay *hugs*”, pretty clear that you were really stressed about this game

the hammer I’m not actually mad about because obviously I’m caught up and some of y’all did real investigating with the time you had but I still feel like more time is almost always better for town especially when people can’t check the game every 15 minutes like I usually do

so all in all this experience really gave me some empathy for you slankers out there. I get it now. maybe slankers *do* deserve rights.

tldr going forward please judge me by reading my content rather than my inactivity

i-yield-my-time-fuck-you.gif

Yeah you're right you did say you wouldn't be around for like the first half of yesterday

No harm done tho I still think you're town as I said
And I never would've advocated for a hammer if lily hadn't derailed the thread lol
Will address questions later just gonna skim thread first

Marmot wrote: ↑Mon Mar 27, 2023 10:09 pm @DrWilgy has died. He was...

Spoiler: show
Town 2-Shot Odd Night Doctor

It is now Day 4, you have 48 hours. The hammer will be enabled after 12 hours, and with 9 alive, it takes 5 to hammer.

Your post limit for Day 4 are as follows. The first number is your current post count, and the second is that plus 125.

@Dennis - 145 => 270
@falcon45ca - 55 => 180
@NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME - 166 => 291
@Neon - 291 => 416
@Porscha - 225 => 350
@pyxxy - 147 => 272
@Sabiplz - 298 => 423
@Seanzie - 209 => 334
@WindwardAway - 306 => 431

Spoiler: show
@Dennis
@DrWilgy
@falcon45ca
@NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME
@Neon
@Porscha
@pyxxy
@Sabiplz
@Seanzie
@WindwardAway

Oh shit

I have thoughts but should prob catch up first and I don't have time to catch up rn
Dumping my overnight thoughts here, haven't read thread so this is all subject to change if there's new evidence.

Sabi probably town
Nook maybe also town
Neon spewed herself VT unless she's a really good wolf or town PR covering for herself, but in all likelihood, town
Seanzie pretty much lock clear imo, not 100% cause of wifom but he's never in my PoE anyway at this point

Falcon wolf with lily at 99% certainty let's get 'em
Pyxxy next in line
Would probably slot in Nook instead of Neon in my PoE again just to make sure I have 3 names

All that being said, I'd vote falcon today but I'm gonna hold off till I've read everything

Neon wrote: ↑Sun Mar 26, 2023 6:39 pm You kill Rondo make everyone think it's doc set up get a RB off on N2 and don't worry about WWA until N3 lol

OK I didn't consider this

Sabiplz wrote: ↑Sun Mar 26, 2023 6:36 pm Wolves know the set up.

They killed rondo who claimed doc.

If it was 6 they knew Rondo was lying because Rondo claimed doc and there's no doc that set up.

Rondo didn't claim doc, he just claimed "windward is wrong this is not protect" which is why I initially thought they went after an RB'er, but then I realized it made no sense since they could pretty much guarantee a kill on me that night because I couldn't act and the RBer would've had to guess correctly.

Neon wrote: ↑Sun Mar 26, 2023 6:26 pm
WindwardAway wrote: ↑Sun Mar 26, 2023 6:21 pm
Neon wrote: ↑Sun Mar 26, 2023 6:20 pm Mmmm it's really weird that there's exactly like zero people entertaining the idea that Lily and WWA are just both town.

Like...Lily's reaction is 100% believable for a lost towny who's been busy and hasn't been able to catch up on the thread who's a PR and knows they blocked someone and no kill happened outs there info without reading than has to try to figure out what really happened last night when they realize they have a jk claim on them
So like... Coming into thread and seeing that 4 or 5 people are voting you and there was no kill but you were jailed and then claiming you RB'd the next most consensus town player after me is a towny thing to do?
I need you to think okay.

We are in 6lock. Mafia have a 1 use rb yes?

They know the set up so they can completely ignore you N1 because you're role is meaningless N1 and your solve is off. They can RB you night 2 because they have a 1 shot RB and you are the most threatening PR and they know who you are.

Now on N3 they can kill you but they got 2 free nights of kills off that.

Problem is Lily RBed there kill last night

WWA you know that if Lily is telling the truth there is no world where wolves don't just RB you last night so yes I believe Lily and I think both of you can be wolves and I think the fact lily is being run up so fast and nobody will listen to an alternative theory is proof that woofs are capitalizing on the false narrative.

We aren't in 6lock wtf
And I'm not wolf with lily either

Seanzie wrote: ↑Sun Mar 26, 2023 6:24 pm
WindwardAway wrote: ↑Sun Mar 26, 2023 6:23 pm
Dennis wrote: ↑Sun Mar 26, 2023 6:22 pm
Neon wrote: ↑Sun Mar 26, 2023 6:20 pm Mmmm it's really weird that there's exactly like zero people entertaining the idea that Lily and WWA are just both town.

Like...Lily's reaction is 100% believable for a lost towny who's been busy and hasn't been able to catch up on the thread who's a PR and knows they blocked someone and no kill happened outs there info without reading than has to try to figure out what really happened last night when they realize they have a jk claim on them
That read like flailing to me

Like an "oh shoot I'm caught, may as well say something"
Yeah but she doesn't even need to flail so idk what the point of this is
I mean she could just hang back or agree with me and take the easy way out and hammer lily
I think Dennis is saying that Lily read like they were flailing, not Neon.

Oh lol
Yeah then he's right

Sabiplz wrote: ↑Sun Mar 26, 2023 6:22 pm Neon ignores wwa claims and is defending lily

Is a look

It's just weird
And it's wifom because a wolf would know lily is gonna flip today regardless of what they do and they were unable to grab towncredit after I outed my jail and lily took eons to decide to show up and claim pr, but on the other hand town has no reason to hammer anyway except to end discussion since it's kinda going in circles.

Dennis wrote: ↑Sun Mar 26, 2023 6:22 pm
Neon wrote: ↑Sun Mar 26, 2023 6:20 pm Mmmm it's really weird that there's exactly like zero people entertaining the idea that Lily and WWA are just both town.

Like...Lily's reaction is 100% believable for a lost towny who's been busy and hasn't been able to catch up on the thread who's a PR and knows they blocked someone and no kill happened outs there info without reading than has to try to figure out what really happened last night when they realize they have a jk claim on them
That read like flailing to me

Like an "oh shoot I'm caught, may as well say something"

Yeah but she doesn't even need to flail so idk what the point of this is
I mean she could just hang back or agree with me and take the easy way out and hammer lily

Neon wrote: ↑Sun Mar 26, 2023 6:21 pm Mmmm I don't believe in hammering towns

So why are on you seanzie then

Neon wrote: ↑Sun Mar 26, 2023 6:20 pm Mmmm it's really weird that there's exactly like zero people entertaining the idea that Lily and WWA are just both town.

Like...Lily's reaction is 100% believable for a lost towny who's been busy and hasn't been able to catch up on the thread who's a PR and knows they blocked someone and no kill happened outs there info without reading than has to try to figure out what really happened last night when they realize they have a jk claim on them

So like... Coming into thread and seeing that 4 or 5 people are voting you and there was no kill but you were jailed and then claiming you RB'd the next most consensus town player after me is a towny thing to do?

Sabiplz wrote: ↑Sun Mar 26, 2023 6:19 pm Neon is voting Seanzie now @WindwardAway @Seanzie

Why the fuck

I'm ngl I hope the second town pr is in my PoE of 3 so we can just chain yeet the other 2 wolves after lily and be done with it

Dennis wrote: ↑Sun Mar 26, 2023 6:18 pm What is the point of hammering, exactly

Why can't we wait and try to solve more

Initially I wanted more time to solve, but lily is fishing for the second town pr which I don't like, and I don't want them to feel forced to cc her when the timing and wording of her claim makes no sense with my immediate claim to have jailed her today when I got into the thread.

Big lol if wolves used their PR on N1 but I'm guessing they holstered it since they thought I'd never jail the killer last night

Sabiplz wrote: ↑Sun Mar 26, 2023 6:14 pm Lily towncored pyxxy way too fast and then attacked me for scumread ing pyxxy

See this fits into my theory that wolves sent out the most townread wolf in my legacy readlist to perform the kill cause I had falcon and Pyxxy in PoE.

Sabiplz wrote: ↑Sun Mar 26, 2023 6:13 pm
WindwardAway wrote: ↑Sun Mar 26, 2023 6:12 pm
Sabiplz wrote: ↑Sun Mar 26, 2023 6:11 pm It can just be lily/falcon/pyxxy tbh
Where even is Pyxxy he's said nothing all day
I can't think of game related reasons why he's MIA

Honestly I feel like he decided to vanish while lily tried to antispew and rolefish in a last-ditch effort to gain something today

I mean I would actually believe that lily was busy all of the day so far but I do not believe the first thing she does is claim to RB seanzie without giving any thought whatsoever to my claim that I jailed her, that's like definitely not a town pr

Sabiplz wrote: ↑Sun Mar 26, 2023 6:11 pm Order of operation:

Falcon then Pyxxy them Neon

Or reverse neon and pyxxy idk

There's a wolf in those two

I think I'd flip falcon > Pyxxy > neon in that order

Should win us the game if I'm right about you and Nook being town, and tbh I feel more like you two are town than neon, but also more like Pyxxy is probably just scum cause he never answered my questions yesterday or today about followup on whatever he had in mind that he didn't say

Sabiplz wrote: ↑Sun Mar 26, 2023 6:11 pm It can just be lily/falcon/pyxxy tbh

Where even is Pyxxy he's said nothing all day

Sabiplz wrote: ↑Sun Mar 26, 2023 6:10 pm I do think we have given neon too much of a pass esp when it turned out tutuu and lucy were town and lily is mafia.

I just yea.

But falcon needs to be yeeted tomorrow. There is no world's where he's town in a lily w world

Yeah I considered whether I was too lenient on neon but on the other hand it isn't like wolves would think I'd RB her either and I had her higher in my reads than lily

She's the only townread I have any lingering doubts on tbh, but I'm like dead certain falcon needs to flip after lily, and never seanzie

Seanzie wrote: ↑Sun Mar 26, 2023 6:08 pm
Sabiplz wrote: ↑Sun Mar 26, 2023 6:05 pm
Seanzie wrote: ↑Sun Mar 26, 2023 6:03 pm
Sabiplz wrote: ↑Sun Mar 26, 2023 6:01 pm Not "oh hey lily is claiming rb and said she rbed me"

No it's about me.

GET YOUR HEAD OUT DO THE FUCKING TUNNEL
Well, to be fair, I now know Lily's alignment for sure, so she is no longer a concern to me.
OK but atleast say something about it.

It's weird that I was your forts mention and nothing else
I'm clear now, which is cool.

I'm trying to wait to hear about order of operations to see if there is even anything to say (I'm guessing there is, but one can hold out hope).

Literally nobody should consider flipping you before we flip lily
They can tinfoil if they really want to AFTER lily's flip which will be red
There is absolutely no reason you should ever be flipped first, even if you're a wolf

Sabiplz wrote: ↑Sun Mar 26, 2023 6:04 pm
WindwardAway wrote: ↑Sun Mar 26, 2023 6:03 pm
Sabiplz wrote: ↑Sun Mar 26, 2023 6:02 pm
WindwardAway wrote: ↑Sun Mar 26, 2023 6:02 pm
Seanzie wrote: ↑Sun Mar 26, 2023 6:00 pm Sabi trying to hammer is weird.
I asked for anyone in the thread to hammer to shut down lily's attempt to hunt for a town pr
THIS @Seanzie JESUS CHRIST GET OUT OF THE TUNNEL
This is why I pointed out earlier that when I said I didn't want to hammer yet, you also unvoted after me
No I unvoted when Seanzie said she was at l-2

Ah ok
I think maybe I hadn't refreshed the page when I posted that, then

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