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by NateTheLesser
Sun Jul 17, 2022 9:20 pm
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 149859

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]

Good game, this was fun!
by NateTheLesser
Mon Jul 11, 2022 8:58 pm
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 149859

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 5]

Good luck! Read my VCA! I hope it's right!
by NateTheLesser
Mon Jul 11, 2022 8:42 pm
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 149859

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 5]

Creature wrote: Mon Jul 11, 2022 8:41 pm
NateTheLesser wrote: Mon Jul 11, 2022 8:38 pm
lucy wrote: Mon Jul 11, 2022 8:16 pm
NateTheLesser wrote: Mon Jul 11, 2022 8:09 pm
lucy wrote: Mon Jul 11, 2022 7:55 pm
NateTheLesser wrote: Mon Jul 11, 2022 6:10 pm
lucy wrote: Mon Jul 11, 2022 6:09 pm nate is hot (physically)
😳
that’s not how i expected you to respond
How did you expect me to respond?

Do you have thoughts on the vote stuff? Nobody's really said much.
trying to read you atm, how confident are you that creature is a wolf?
I've made it clear that I think there's a wolf in creature or Allison bc at least one teammate would want to be on his wagon at eod.
Not necessarily. JJJ at least initially seemed focused on pushing mislynches so it feels like wolves were aiming to get another mislynch. I remember there being like three or more alternate wagons (Alison, Boquise, dunno who else) before I moved to JJJ so it was definitely possible.
Jay didn't even vote
by NateTheLesser
Mon Jul 11, 2022 8:40 pm
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 149859

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 5]

lucy wrote: Mon Jul 11, 2022 8:30 pm
NateTheLesser wrote: Mon Jul 11, 2022 8:09 pm
lucy wrote: Mon Jul 11, 2022 7:55 pm
NateTheLesser wrote: Mon Jul 11, 2022 6:10 pm
lucy wrote: Mon Jul 11, 2022 6:09 pm nate is hot (physically)
😳
that’s not how i expected you to respond
How did you expect me to respond?

Do you have thoughts on the vote stuff? Nobody's really said much.
usually when a 18yo says that to a 40yo you go against it hard, like seriously shut it down. one emoji is 100% due to not playing by your own emotions, since I'm town mafia would go around and placate me, maybe get me to Lynch creature lmao
I truly don't know what to do with your age reads.
by NateTheLesser
Mon Jul 11, 2022 8:38 pm
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 149859

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 5]

lucy wrote: Mon Jul 11, 2022 8:16 pm
NateTheLesser wrote: Mon Jul 11, 2022 8:09 pm
lucy wrote: Mon Jul 11, 2022 7:55 pm
NateTheLesser wrote: Mon Jul 11, 2022 6:10 pm
lucy wrote: Mon Jul 11, 2022 6:09 pm nate is hot (physically)
😳
that’s not how i expected you to respond
How did you expect me to respond?

Do you have thoughts on the vote stuff? Nobody's really said much.
trying to read you atm, how confident are you that creature is a wolf?
I've made it clear that I think there's a wolf in creature or Allison bc at least one teammate would want to be on his wagon at eod.
by NateTheLesser
Mon Jul 11, 2022 8:12 pm
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 149859

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 5]

From here on out I'll be spotty and on mobile, so good luck town if I end up going over, hopefully I've left some things to pick over.
by NateTheLesser
Mon Jul 11, 2022 8:09 pm
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 149859

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 5]

lucy wrote: Mon Jul 11, 2022 7:55 pm
NateTheLesser wrote: Mon Jul 11, 2022 6:10 pm
lucy wrote: Mon Jul 11, 2022 6:09 pm nate is hot (physically)
😳
that’s not how i expected you to respond
How did you expect me to respond?

Do you have thoughts on the vote stuff? Nobody's really said much.
by NateTheLesser
Mon Jul 11, 2022 6:36 pm
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 149859

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 5]

Boquise wrote: Mon Jul 11, 2022 6:27 pm
NateTheLesser wrote: Mon Jul 11, 2022 3:56 pm Looking back at D1, the first two voters for Creature were Jay and Alison, so... unlikely that Jay/Alison/Creature are the exact team. So combined with the above I'd say one of Creature/Alison is almost certainly a wolf, and it's also a difference check. Meaning there'd be a wolf in the rest. I'm town, I'm reading Boq and Lucy as town, so the other wolf is in Rondo/Finger.

Jay did not seem to like me voting Creature early on day 3, and that stands out in hindsight (I haven't completely re-read but I'm about halfway through the day). The post I quoted earlier is the one I'm talking about. So this is the vote I feel best about atm.

[VOTE: Creature] aubergine

Of course we also have to reckon with the gallon of wine Jay poured for us at some point yesterday:

> says he's going to take a different tack and evaluate everyone from the perspective that they're scum
> does this for Creature
> gives a basically neutral read
> stops
Creature is one of those players I have sussed for a major part of the game. I agree with you that if there is a wolf between Creature and Alison, it is Creature. I disagree with it being a different check though. If Creature is town, I won't start scum reading Alison. She is a lock.

My weakest town read is fingers, so with that poe it would be Creature/Fingers, but I am not sure about it.

Rondo came in now and voted with you on Creature. That means to me that Rondo is not scum with you because at this point scum would be better to just let you go. Which means I am at least reading one of you correctly.

I don't think it has to be a difference check, it would just be very bold distancing for Jay and Alison to make Creature a wagon on D1. So I think w!Creature would definitely look good for Alison.

My reason for thinking one of them must be a wolf is that if they're both town then it would mean Jay's EOD wagon was all town, which is not what I would expect.

You have Alison as lock town?
by NateTheLesser
Mon Jul 11, 2022 6:29 pm
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 149859

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 5]

It's already pretty late for Fingersplints, isn't it? Wonder if she won't make it to vote..
She was here at the start of the phase.
by NateTheLesser
Mon Jul 11, 2022 6:22 pm
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 149859

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 5]

I have like 90 minutes and then I'll be pretty spotty on mobile.
by NateTheLesser
Mon Jul 11, 2022 6:19 pm
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 149859

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 5]

RondoDimBuckle wrote: Mon Jul 11, 2022 6:04 pm Ugh I love waking up to this content from nate reeeee
[VOTE: creature ] aubergine

More words
by NateTheLesser
Mon Jul 11, 2022 6:16 pm
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 149859

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 5]

And as people catch up on my vote analysis posts and stuff, I'd love opinions on my groupings. A lot of it is game-state stuff wrt where I would expect the wolf votes to be in prior days, which is obviously subjective and you all may have different ideas about how to read those tea leaves.
by NateTheLesser
Mon Jul 11, 2022 6:12 pm
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 149859

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 5]

Boquise wrote: Mon Jul 11, 2022 6:04 pm with the risk of being super dumb, I think Nate is town tbh

I will feel extra dumb if you're a wolf, but at this point I'm leaning into it. Gotta start somewhere.
by NateTheLesser
Mon Jul 11, 2022 6:10 pm
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 149859

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 5]

lucy wrote: Mon Jul 11, 2022 6:09 pm nate is hot (physically)
😳
by NateTheLesser
Mon Jul 11, 2022 6:10 pm
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 149859

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 5]

Boquise wrote: Mon Jul 11, 2022 5:41 pm
NateTheLesser wrote: Mon Jul 11, 2022 10:42 am
Boquise wrote: Mon Jul 11, 2022 9:28 am So if I just remove Alison and Lucy from the equation.

I dont think it makes much sense of Nate to try to clear both me and Lucy as scum because that makes the game state much more difficult for him.

The fact that you're not just burying me makes me think I'm right about you.

What do you think of the Lucy post I quoted?
Tho what would the game plan be? Burying seems sorta short-sighted?

Which Lucy post?

Oh you're here! Well, leaving me alive after shielding Jay, and killing Marmot who was heavily sussing me certainly makes it seem like I'm the desired mischop for today. I tend to endgame a lot, so I've developed a keen sense for when I'm the sacrificial lamb.

The post in this quote is the one I'm talking about. Pointing sus directly at Jay very early in Day 3 (before he'd picked up any votes):

NateTheLesser wrote: Mon Jul 11, 2022 1:25 am Boq and Lucy are just town.

lucy wrote: Sun Jul 03, 2022 4:00 am
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Sun Jul 03, 2022 3:55 am
Boquise wrote: Sun Jul 03, 2022 3:25 am Anyway, this kill indicates at least 1 scum inside Me/JJJ/Alison.

Alison wouldnt really be the kill if town though since she got sussed yesterday.
Why does the kill indicate that
I thought the kill directly points to you, by keeping you and Alison alive it makes it confirmed one is mafia or you'd be killed off more expeditiously before a solve can happen

Boq's "wolf in me/JJJ/Alison" NK idea was one of the first things he said D3, before any votes were on the board. Jay's reaction is to question it. Lucy wasn't asked anything but jumps in to point suspicion directly at Jay.
by NateTheLesser
Mon Jul 11, 2022 4:04 pm
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 149859

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 5]

@Alison I don't think you responded to this, or if you did I didn't see it:
NateTheLesser wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 11:33 am
Alison wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 3:20 am
Boquise wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 3:06 am
Alison wrote: Thu Jul 07, 2022 9:22 pm
Boquise wrote: Thu Jul 07, 2022 6:31 pm
Alison wrote: Thu Jul 07, 2022 4:49 am
Boquise wrote: Thu Jul 07, 2022 2:19 am This kill again points at 1 scum inside me/JJJ/Alison btw so I am feeling smug about being right there.
I don't disagree with your conclusion, but what makes you think the kill points that way?
Because scum is killing around us.
You think scum would kill any of the three of us over Dizzy even if we were all town? We all have considerably more heat than him, and he shielded Ender last day phase.
That's a very fair point that I did not consider.
I think Dizzy was pretty pushable until yesterday, so sure, maybe he could be killed if all of us are town, but there's also the seanize kill
I think it's fair to say the Seanzie kill points there. I was curious why you thought the Dizzy kill points there too.

I don't disagree that there is very likely a scum in us three.

I'm trying to reconcile the softness of this agreement with the fact that you came into today lock-voting Jay. From your POV I'd expect you to be certain that there's a wolf in those three. Especially since, and correct me if I'm wrong, near EOD you were saying that if Ender v then both Jay and Boq are wolves.
by NateTheLesser
Mon Jul 11, 2022 3:59 pm
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 149859

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 5]

And I know if Creature's scum that sets him up to put a 4th vote on me, but whatever. Hoping people will be around to talk about the points I've made so far.

I have a concert tonight so I'll be mobile-only for the last hour or so of the day. Which is inconvenient!
by NateTheLesser
Mon Jul 11, 2022 3:56 pm
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 149859

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 5]

Looking back at D1, the first two voters for Creature were Jay and Alison, so... unlikely that Jay/Alison/Creature are the exact team. So combined with the above I'd say one of Creature/Alison is almost certainly a wolf, and it's also a difference check. Meaning there'd be a wolf in the rest. I'm town, I'm reading Boq and Lucy as town, so the other wolf is in Rondo/Finger.

Jay did not seem to like me voting Creature early on day 3, and that stands out in hindsight (I haven't completely re-read but I'm about halfway through the day). The post I quoted earlier is the one I'm talking about. So this is the vote I feel best about atm.

[VOTE: Creature] aubergine

Of course we also have to reckon with the gallon of wine Jay poured for us at some point yesterday:

> says he's going to take a different tack and evaluate everyone from the perspective that they're scum
> does this for Creature
> gives a basically neutral read
> stops
by NateTheLesser
Mon Jul 11, 2022 3:31 pm
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 149859

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 5]

Anyway, what do people think the wolf agenda was yesterday? Try to save Jay, or bus Jay?

Because it seems obvious to me that Jay was expecting to be bussed, considering that he didn't try to push anyone or really defend himself. And my play yesterday is not at all compatible with that world.

And frankly regardless of what the plan was to start the day, I don't think there's any way both of Jay's teammates ended up off-wagon. That means AT MOST 1 wolf in me/Lucy/Rondo/Finger/Boq. And AT LEAST 1 wolf in Creature/Alison.

If you're looking for a simple bus, it's Alison lock-voting Jay. If you're looking for a "maybe we can save him but if not I'll bus", it's Creature putting a second vote on Boq and then switching to Jay 12 minutes before EOD.

I guess I could see a world where Rondo or Lucy voted Jay initially and then played around with other wagons in case someone else was pushable, but I think they would have put the nail in Jay's coffin at EOD rather than unvoting.

Boq and Finger were both missing for EOD due to timezone. I suppose they could fit a pattern of "vote on a cw and hope for the best" (Finger voted for Boq, Boq ended up on Lucy). But especially Boq had plenty of prior reasoning to vote Jay there and reap the cred. Not sure what Finger's read on Jay was.
by NateTheLesser
Mon Jul 11, 2022 2:36 pm
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 149859

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 5]

Oof, this game state. We got a wolf yesterday, people! (Well, no thanks to me)
by NateTheLesser
Mon Jul 11, 2022 10:42 am
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 149859

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 5]

Boquise wrote: Mon Jul 11, 2022 9:28 am So if I just remove Alison and Lucy from the equation.

I dont think it makes much sense of Nate to try to clear both me and Lucy as scum because that makes the game state much more difficult for him.

The fact that you're not just burying me makes me think I'm right about you.

What do you think of the Lucy post I quoted?
by NateTheLesser
Mon Jul 11, 2022 10:29 am
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 149859

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 5]

RondoDimBuckle wrote: Mon Jul 11, 2022 3:24 am
NateTheLesser wrote: Mon Jul 11, 2022 12:39 am Still reading, but @RondoDimBuckle what was this about?
RondoDimBuckle wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 5:42 am
RondoDimBuckle wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 5:41 am Yes. I am going to actively defend Cobalts slot now. I wanted him for 3 days and for 3 days no one wanted him. So he is town now. Thank you. Good bye
Delete this pls
Completely wrong game window open pls ignore

Oh. I was hoping it was a slip because that would be fun.
by NateTheLesser
Mon Jul 11, 2022 3:05 am
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 149859

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 5]

Alison wrote: Mon Jul 11, 2022 12:26 am tl;dr conclusion from D0-D2 Jay spew:

- Boq and Creature look good off it. (Rondo and lucy also look good, though I think most people have them cleared anyway.)
- Nate looks bad. Finger a little bad.
- Jay was almost certainly making very opportunistic pushes on early on, and it might be worth reflecting on which LHF he didn't feel inclined to push, because he was very happy to push people like falcon, Wilgy, and Ender. Names that spring to mind include Nate, finger, and Rondo. I suspect the first two, and think the third is almost certainly town.

What do you make of this spew-wise?
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Sun Jul 03, 2022 4:14 pm @NateTheLesser I still owe Creature a full reassessment, but my initial perception on Day 3 is that a Seanzie kill may point to a town Creature. Seanzie protected him pretty staunchly, while people like myself and a few others that have been anti-Creature much of the game are still here. I wonder if that represents an invitation for us to kill him without the same resistance.

The context is early D3, Jay has 1 vote (Ender), Finger has 1 vote (Rondo), Ender has 2 votes (Jay/Creature). I voted for Creature, and a few minutes later Jay pings me to offer a townread (he came into the day saying the NK was making him reconsider and pull Creature out of POE).
by NateTheLesser
Mon Jul 11, 2022 1:26 am
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 149859

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 5]

RondoDimBuckle wrote: Mon Jul 11, 2022 12:36 am I always vote ender if he is in a game with me

You got him day one.
by NateTheLesser
Mon Jul 11, 2022 1:25 am
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 149859

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 5]

Boq and Lucy are just town.

lucy wrote: Sun Jul 03, 2022 4:00 am
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Sun Jul 03, 2022 3:55 am
Boquise wrote: Sun Jul 03, 2022 3:25 am Anyway, this kill indicates at least 1 scum inside Me/JJJ/Alison.

Alison wouldnt really be the kill if town though since she got sussed yesterday.
Why does the kill indicate that
I thought the kill directly points to you, by keeping you and Alison alive it makes it confirmed one is mafia or you'd be killed off more expeditiously before a solve can happen

Boq's "wolf in me/JJJ/Alison" NK idea was one of the first things he said D3, before any votes were on the board. Jay's reaction is to question it. Lucy wasn't asked anything but jumps in to point suspicion directly at Jay.
by NateTheLesser
Mon Jul 11, 2022 12:39 am
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 149859

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 5]

Still reading, but @RondoDimBuckle what was this about?
RondoDimBuckle wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 5:42 am
RondoDimBuckle wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 5:41 am Yes. I am going to actively defend Cobalts slot now. I wanted him for 3 days and for 3 days no one wanted him. So he is town now. Thank you. Good bye
Delete this pls
by NateTheLesser
Sun Jul 10, 2022 10:18 pm
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 149859

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 5]

(I got sidetracked by the champs jury reveal, but I'm back at it)

Okay, the votes of Day 3! Why Day 3? Jay was a wagon for the entire day, so we should be able to find votes that helped him survive. (His first 3 voters were Ender/Dizzy/Marmot and they were the only ones to vote for him for almost the entire phase, so I think it's safe to say that the plan was to save him not to bus him)

To make it easier to see the votes I'm about to talk about, I highlighted all the votes of players that are still alive:
Spoiler: show
Image

After going through them all, this is my ranking of our respective D3 vote histories, from most town to least:

Lucy
- Votes: Marmot, unvote, Jay, Ender
- Put Marmot on the board when Jay had 1 vote, but then she unvoted after the 24hr break. Voted Jay less than an hour from EOD, which put Jay in a tie with Ender/Creature, this vote looks really good. Tempered somewhat by switching from Jay to Ender (as the 5th vote) a half hour later.

Creature
- Votes: Ender, Nate, Finger
- 2nd vote on Ender early in the day, which made Ender the first real cw. But later in the day put a single vote on me and then a single vote on Finger, which were wagons that didn't really do much to help Jay.

Nate
- Votes: Creature
- First vote on Creature early on, it turned into one of the main counterwagons.

Fingersplints
- Votes: Creature
- Third vote on Creature (at this point Jay had 1).

Boq
- Votes: Alison, Lucy, Ender
- After arguing with Jay, puts a first vote on Alison. Closer to EOD puts a lone vote on Lucy. In the last hour switches to Ender. I think the switch from Alison to Lucy looks good here, because Alison was a 3 vote wagon at the time (it was Alison/Ender/Creature with 3, Jay with 1). Didn't really put Jay in more danger but staying on that wagon would probably have been better if the goal was helping Jay. Ender vote is pretty bad, had the effect of pushing Ender ahead of Jay/Creature.

Alison
- Votes: Ender
- 3rd vote for Ender, pushing him ahead of Jay/Creature (and herself, some credit for it also being self pres)

Rondo
- Votes: Finger, Ender, Boq, Finger, Creature
- His two Finger votes were single votes so those aren't too significant. And the Ender vote was relatively early and only lasted 20 minutes or so. But he was the 2nd vote on Boq which tied Boq with Jay, and then later was the 3rd vote for Creature which pushed Creature ahead of Jay into a tie with Ender.


Also worth noting is that Jay's main pushes were Ender and Boq
Voters for Ender: Creature, Rondo, Alison, Boq, Lucy
Voters for Boq: Rondo


That's just basing it on raw VCA, next I want to look into actual vote reasoning and see if anything stands out. The above could shift around based on that.
by NateTheLesser
Sun Jul 10, 2022 1:29 pm
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 149859

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 5]

fingersplints wrote: Sun Jul 10, 2022 5:34 am Nate’s voting spreadsheets is reminding me of a game where someone (I think maybe BoKnows) posted some charts or spreadsheets, and got a lot of town cred for it but ended up being mafia.

I do them regardless of my alignment, so I shouldn't get town cred for it. But I think they can be especially helpful on a forum like this where there's not an easy way to see a complete vote history. I'm working on an analysis of D3 votes now.
by NateTheLesser
Sun Jul 10, 2022 1:08 pm
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 149859

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 5]

Alison wrote: Sun Jul 10, 2022 3:21 am
Alison wrote: Sat Jul 09, 2022 10:21 pm What about Boq/Jay on D3 looked T/T to you specifically? Just the "olive branch" thing?

Why did Ender/Dizzy's flips not shake your view of that at all?
Answer the question please. (Or quote where you did if I didn't see it.)

I didn't think w!Jay would back off t!Boq there, because Boq's wagon was starting to get some traction. In hindsight it worked out for him, since he switched to Ender who eventually went over.

With Ender, the late votes that put him over the top were Boq/Lucy/Dizzy, two of my townreads and a town flip, so it didn't look like a save and didn't change my opinion on Jay. The Dizzy kill I thought looked worse for Marmot, because Dizzy had been pressing Marmot pretty hard earlier in the day.

I'm often wrong, but I come by my wrong opinions honestly.
by NateTheLesser
Sun Jul 10, 2022 12:46 am
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 149859

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 5]

Day 3 VCA could be huge, since Jay was in contention the entire day. Lucy is the only Jay voter from D3 that's still alive (the others were Ender/Dizzy/Marmot). She did end up on Ender, but her vote for Jay was less than an hour before EOD and pushed Jay into the Jay/Ender/Creature tie. Pretty good look.
by NateTheLesser
Sat Jul 09, 2022 11:04 pm
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 149859

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 5]

I like the wim, Lucy.
by NateTheLesser
Sat Jul 09, 2022 11:03 pm
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 149859

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 5]

I need to eat, I'll be back.
by NateTheLesser
Sat Jul 09, 2022 11:02 pm
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 149859

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 5]

RondoDimBuckle wrote: Sat Jul 09, 2022 10:25 pm
NateTheLesser wrote: Sat Jul 09, 2022 10:16 pm
Alison wrote: Sat Jul 09, 2022 9:43 pm
NateTheLesser wrote: Sat Jul 09, 2022 9:42 pm
Alison wrote: Sat Jul 09, 2022 9:23 pm
NateTheLesser wrote: Sat Jul 09, 2022 9:20 pm Looks good for Creature and Fingersplints since Marmot was shielding them.
I agree finger is less likely to make the Marmot kill when she could have killed lucy/Rondo or myself.

Tell me about your decision to try to wagon me at EOD at a moment where it seemed like Jay was going to go over.
I imagine I'll be talking about this a lot today. Yesterday I was townreading Boq/Jay/Lucy and adding one of Fingers/Creature (because I didn't think they were w/w) to get 4 town, leaving a POE of Marmot/you/Rondo/(the other of Fingers/Creature). I was most interested in Marmot but nobody else seemed to be. And at that point leading up to EOD the other wagons were Jay/Boq/Lucy, my townreads. So I switched to you both because you were in my POE and because you were in a few other POEs as well; off-hand you were POEd by Boq, Lucy, Rondo, Marmot, Fingers, and not all of those could be wolves even if I was completely wrong about my townreads.
Talk to me about your Jay townread, please. What was it about him that so convinced you he was town that you would vote to save him?
I've been townreading him all game, so it wasn't really a change. But I thought the Boq/Jay interaction on D3 was t/t. More towny on Boq's end, but I also agreed with his read that it was a good look for Jay, which supported my existing townread there. So D4, Boq and Jay were kind of my starting points for building a town core. But the gamestate was pretty dead and nobody was really solving together the first half+ of the day, so I decided to actively treat those two as town and try to solve with them and see if anything shook out (especially building a further town core). Boq was game, Jay didn't really engage with it.
If you are clearing Boq here? Am I reading that right?

Are you aware that you are condemning yourself in a Boq/Nate world? If so why clear Boq?

This post is so confusing to me

I was explaining where my head was at yesterday, but yeah I still townread Boq, and yeah that could be inconvenient for me if people end up convinced that there's a wolf in the two of us.

The nugget of my Boq read is that I thought it unlikely that he would start talking about the NK pointing to a wolf in him/Jay/Alison if he were a wolf, and I think it's doubly unlikely that he would do that (and keep pushing it D4) if he knew there were two wolves in there. And even if it were some galaxy brain gambit to bus Jay and look great off of it, he didn't vote for Jay yesterday.
by NateTheLesser
Sat Jul 09, 2022 10:49 pm
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 149859

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 4]

Here's all the spreadsheets. VCA gets much more interesting once there's a red flip, so I'll be digging into that.

Day 1 Votes:
Spoiler: show
Image

Day 2 Votes:
Spoiler: show
Image

Day 3 Votes:
(The dotted line is where the 24hr break was)
Spoiler: show
Image

Day 4 Votes:
Spoiler: show
Image

Waterfall:
Spoiler: show
Image

EOD Wagons:
Spoiler: show
Image
by NateTheLesser
Sat Jul 09, 2022 10:16 pm
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 149859

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 5]

Alison wrote: Sat Jul 09, 2022 9:43 pm
NateTheLesser wrote: Sat Jul 09, 2022 9:42 pm
Alison wrote: Sat Jul 09, 2022 9:23 pm
NateTheLesser wrote: Sat Jul 09, 2022 9:20 pm Looks good for Creature and Fingersplints since Marmot was shielding them.
I agree finger is less likely to make the Marmot kill when she could have killed lucy/Rondo or myself.

Tell me about your decision to try to wagon me at EOD at a moment where it seemed like Jay was going to go over.
I imagine I'll be talking about this a lot today. Yesterday I was townreading Boq/Jay/Lucy and adding one of Fingers/Creature (because I didn't think they were w/w) to get 4 town, leaving a POE of Marmot/you/Rondo/(the other of Fingers/Creature). I was most interested in Marmot but nobody else seemed to be. And at that point leading up to EOD the other wagons were Jay/Boq/Lucy, my townreads. So I switched to you both because you were in my POE and because you were in a few other POEs as well; off-hand you were POEd by Boq, Lucy, Rondo, Marmot, Fingers, and not all of those could be wolves even if I was completely wrong about my townreads.
Talk to me about your Jay townread, please. What was it about him that so convinced you he was town that you would vote to save him?
I've been townreading him all game, so it wasn't really a change. But I thought the Boq/Jay interaction on D3 was t/t. More towny on Boq's end, but I also agreed with his read that it was a good look for Jay, which supported my existing townread there. So D4, Boq and Jay were kind of my starting points for building a town core. But the gamestate was pretty dead and nobody was really solving together the first half+ of the day, so I decided to actively treat those two as town and try to solve with them and see if anything shook out (especially building a further town core). Boq was game, Jay didn't really engage with it.
by NateTheLesser
Sat Jul 09, 2022 9:42 pm
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 149859

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 5]

Alison wrote: Sat Jul 09, 2022 9:23 pm
NateTheLesser wrote: Sat Jul 09, 2022 9:20 pm Looks good for Creature and Fingersplints since Marmot was shielding them.
I agree finger is less likely to make the Marmot kill when she could have killed lucy/Rondo or myself.

Tell me about your decision to try to wagon me at EOD at a moment where it seemed like Jay was going to go over.
I imagine I'll be talking about this a lot today. Yesterday I was townreading Boq/Jay/Lucy and adding one of Fingers/Creature (because I didn't think they were w/w) to get 4 town, leaving a POE of Marmot/you/Rondo/(the other of Fingers/Creature). I was most interested in Marmot but nobody else seemed to be. And at that point leading up to EOD the other wagons were Jay/Boq/Lucy, my townreads. So I switched to you both because you were in my POE and because you were in a few other POEs as well; off-hand you were POEd by Boq, Lucy, Rondo, Marmot, Fingers, and not all of those could be wolves even if I was completely wrong about my townreads.
by NateTheLesser
Sat Jul 09, 2022 9:20 pm
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 149859

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 5]

Looks good for Creature and Fingersplints since Marmot was shielding them.
by NateTheLesser
Sat Jul 09, 2022 9:16 pm
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 149859

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 5]

lucy wrote: Sat Jul 09, 2022 9:06 pm can you post every voting screenshot from every cycle? @NateTheLesser
Yeah I'll post them in a bit.
by NateTheLesser
Sat Jul 09, 2022 9:14 pm
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 149859

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 5]

Well this is, uh.

I was expecting the day to be me and Marmot going after each other, and I'm kinda surprised they didn't leave us both alive to let that play out.
by NateTheLesser
Fri Jul 08, 2022 9:00 pm
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 149859

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 4]

Fingers crossed I'm wrong!
by NateTheLesser
Fri Jul 08, 2022 9:00 pm
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 149859

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 4]

Ok nm.
by NateTheLesser
Fri Jul 08, 2022 8:59 pm
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 149859

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 4]

lucy wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 8:56 pm in 3 minutes unvote, before you say anything thats fucking stupid jjj was just talking, if he is mafia he can easily tie the vote @RondoDimBuckle
If Jay ties it that's a scum claim. If he's town he won't.
by NateTheLesser
Fri Jul 08, 2022 8:56 pm
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 149859

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 4]

Creature wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 8:52 pm Sometimes I wonder if Nate gained WIM because his faction is close to winning.
No, it's because I don't want to get swept.
by NateTheLesser
Fri Jul 08, 2022 8:54 pm
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 149859

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 4]

Marmot wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 8:52 pm Like last time I left the thread, Nate had me as his top scumread (pending a reread). Now he's asking me to vote Alison


That doesn't make me feel good.

She's in my POE. Boq and JJJ are not. It's as simple as that.
by NateTheLesser
Fri Jul 08, 2022 8:51 pm
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 149859

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 4]

Creature wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 8:49 pm Huh did Boq ever push Alison?

Day 2 and 3, yeah.
by NateTheLesser
Fri Jul 08, 2022 8:50 pm
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 149859

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 4]

Creature wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 8:49 pm
RondoDimBuckle wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 8:47 pm
Creature wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 8:43 pm I still would rather vote JJJ or Boq.
I hard block a Boq chop
I don't get it. It feels like he's exclusively pushing town atp in the world Alison is town.

We could find out if Alison is town.
by NateTheLesser
Fri Jul 08, 2022 8:49 pm
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 149859

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 4]

lucy wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 8:47 pm
RondoDimBuckle wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 8:45 pm
Marmot wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 8:43 pm But since you're here Rondo, can you point me to why you're voting lucy?

I doubt I'll have time to catch up, need a tl;dr
Long story short, her interactions constantly felt weird to me day 1 and we had to stop talking to each other day 2 more strange stuff that has weirded me out and day 3 as well. Boq who I town read wants her so I am lending my power there and she has promised cases after we get more info and we are 400+ posts deep and I have yet to see any deep analysis. Just empty promises and SHE KEEPS. TYING. THE. VOTE. Near EOD
like or unlike my qualifier? @NateTheLesser

It's similar to your play there, yes, but I also didn't like a lot of it :D
I don't know how you'd play as a wolf.
by NateTheLesser
Fri Jul 08, 2022 8:48 pm
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 149859

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 4]

Marmot wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 8:45 pm
NateTheLesser wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 8:42 pm
Marmot wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 8:41 pm Ok I'm here for 20 minutes, what'd I miss?
Lots but also nothing? Oh man.

What do you think about Alison? You sounded like you had some suspicions there at some point.
Yeah, I talked about her yesterday. I tried to start a wagon on her, but she came in and made a reasonable town argument for herself. Has she done anything to further prove that today?
Not really? She hasn't been around since early this morning.
by NateTheLesser
Fri Jul 08, 2022 8:42 pm
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 149859

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 4]

Marmot wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 8:41 pm Ok I'm here for 20 minutes, what'd I miss?
Lots but also nothing? Oh man.

What do you think about Alison? You sounded like you had some suspicions there at some point.
by NateTheLesser
Fri Jul 08, 2022 8:40 pm
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 149859

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 4]

Tie is no kill, but I agree we shouldn't.

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