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by NateTheLesser
Fri Jul 08, 2022 8:37 pm
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 187836

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 4]

Who are you most suspicious of, Creature? Still Boq?
by NateTheLesser
Fri Jul 08, 2022 8:35 pm
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 187836

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 4]

RondoDimBuckle wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 8:30 pm
NateTheLesser wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 8:29 pm
RondoDimBuckle wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 8:19 pm @NateTheLesser Talk to me about Marmot or rather the lack of talk around Marmot
I don't know how much to read into it or not, but it struck me that nobody seemed eager to help push Marmot. And I think if Jay were a wolf he would have teammates that would be eager to push someone else to save him.
More words?
If Jay is a wolf I think it makes it more likely that Marmot is a wolf. But I don't think Jay is a wolf, so it says less about Marmot because wolves have a perfectly fine mischop lined up in Jay.

Mostly I was trying to get anyone who's considering wolf Jay, to consider why other wagons weren't really going anywhere.
by NateTheLesser
Fri Jul 08, 2022 8:29 pm
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 187836

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 4]

RondoDimBuckle wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 8:19 pm @NateTheLesser Talk to me about Marmot or rather the lack of talk around Marmot
I don't know how much to read into it or not, but it struck me that nobody seemed eager to help push Marmot. And I think if Jay were a wolf he would have teammates that would be eager to push someone else to save him.
by NateTheLesser
Fri Jul 08, 2022 8:27 pm
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 187836

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 4]

lucy wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 8:25 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 8:20 pm @lucy who do you think was primarily responsible for Ender's elimination, whatever you might think of the justification or the result
I'm reading up, but on page 90 Alison seems scummy asf
What are you seeing exactly?
by NateTheLesser
Fri Jul 08, 2022 8:24 pm
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 187836

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 4]

lucy wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 8:04 pm
RondoDimBuckle wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 8:01 pm
lucy wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 7:59 pm
RondoDimBuckle wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 7:57 pm
lucy wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 7:52 pm
RondoDimBuckle wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 7:50 pm
lucy wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 4:45 pm

i’ll vote for marmot + other 3
Ok now I am really happy to be on Lucy
you'd be wrong
can you give me SOMETHING?
I can't lol, I think boq and jjj wouldn't be alive if they were pure. you tunneling me tracks and now you're paranoid
Wait! why do you think JJJ over boq? You obviously can choose which wagon goes over right now. So you must have a reason for JJJ over Boq? I mean you have noticed this right? Can you please talk about that?
jjj has had much less thread influence compared to boq imo, and jjj is known to be leadery and very strong. if he was town he'd have accomplished something or pushed and tunneled someone until they died by now. letting others do this, then dying (everyone who died had massive thread control) seems like a consistent desire from mafia
Not sure I agree with this as a read without more to it. Like, he doesn't strike me as someone who would intentionally not do much as a wolf.
by NateTheLesser
Fri Jul 08, 2022 8:06 pm
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 187836

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 4]

RondoDimBuckle wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 7:44 pm
NateTheLesser wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 3:20 pm And I'm not really considering a world where you/Jay are w/w. I think your insistence of a wolf in you/Alison/Jay would be frankly insane if that was a 2/3. (Which also rules out you/Alison as teamed in my mind)
I send early by habit, so you are saying none of Boq/Alison/JJJ are wolf?
No I'm saying Boq isn't a wolf with Alison or JJJ.
by NateTheLesser
Fri Jul 08, 2022 8:05 pm
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 187836

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 4]

RondoDimBuckle wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 7:43 pm
NateTheLesser wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 7:20 pm @RondoDimBuckle
Here's the nugget of it viewtopic.php?t=2389&start=4800#p932651
And then starting here-ish viewtopic.php?t=2389&start=4850#p932741
Oh yeah, this is a tl;dr post I skimmed because I wanted to catch up before EOD but I actually have time this time to go back and read

Why town reading boq and jay specifically? How does yesterday clear them in your mind?

Lucy said she would get involved when we had more info, we have 100 pages of info and I have yet to see a proper case by her

I dont really want to talk about slots that arent the five so I will leave finger/creature alone for now.

So you are saying Marmot/Alison/Myself and one of Finger/Creature are wolf?

I keep having to force myself to go back and read the creature/finger stuff. ughhhh yeah I dont really have anything to say about that. I thought this was going to be about Boq/JJJ?

===========================

So you are saying that the wolf kill points to Boq/Alison/JJJ but it could just be wolf theater?

Cappu? Oh another game

Wait so you are saying Boq is a wolf?

viewtopic.php?t=2389&start=4850#p932744

I can kinda see what you are saying here, I did kinda just move past your posts. My bad

viewtopic.php?t=2389&start=4850#p932752
So this is calling Marmot town?

viewtopic.php?t=2389&start=4900#p932757
I could see a world where JJJ/Boq are town but if I had to choose between the two at this point its JJJ I am voting for and if boq is the wolf this game state is pretty fucked anyway.
Why town reading boq and jay specifically? How does yesterday clear them in your mind?
The town read is stronger on Boq. Suggesting a POE of 3 that includes himself I could only see as wolf if the purpose was to force a chop on Alison/Jay, but then he backed off Jay and townread him. And I see the interaction the same way Boq does, that Jay offering the olive branch was a towny thing to do there.

So you are saying Marmot/Alison/Myself and one of Finger/Creature are wolf?
Based on townreading Boq/Jay/Lucy/(one of Finger/Creature), that leaves 3 wolves in Marmot/Alison/you/(the other of Finger/Creature), yes. But I'm less certain now that Lucy should be in the town list rather than Marmot or you (partly because Boq is strongly town reading you).

So you are saying that the wolf kill points to Boq/Alison/JJJ but it could just be wolf theater?
No I was saying it fits with a wolf being in that group, but I'm not as certain that it points that way as Boq is.

Wait so you are saying Boq is a wolf?
No, that was a general statement. What I was doing was treating Boq/JJJ as town and solving from there.

So this is calling Marmot town?
No, just that if Jay is a wolf, it's notable that nobody else has seemed interested in Marmot as a counterwagon.
by NateTheLesser
Fri Jul 08, 2022 7:48 pm
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 187836

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 4]

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 7:41 pm Nate, Rondo please talk to me about lucy
Town: Seemed comfortable in the early game. Activity and tone was a lot like her qualifier. Votes don't seem to have much agenda (8th vote for Falcon when he was a sure thing, Ender and then Sleep d2, moved from you to Ender close to EOD yesterday). Occasional towny perspective things like this:
lucy wrote: Tue Jul 05, 2022 8:43 pm
Dyslexicon wrote: Tue Jul 05, 2022 8:42 pm If Ender is w, I'm pretty sure Nate is w too
didn't I think this 2 days ago
Wolf: Activity has dropped off (which it did in her quali in the midgame to be fair). Rarely taken stances of any kind unless pressed. Just not much to really pull her completely out of POE.
by NateTheLesser
Fri Jul 08, 2022 7:30 pm
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 187836

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 4]

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 7:28 pm If our euro friends went to sleep then it may only be possible to consolidate votes on lucy or Boq himself
The Creature/Fingersplints Boq wagon doesn't inspire confidence (plus I think he's town).
by NateTheLesser
Fri Jul 08, 2022 7:30 pm
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 187836

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 4]

My Marmot vote isn't realistically doing anything so I'll do this.

[VOTE: Alison] aubergine
by NateTheLesser
Fri Jul 08, 2022 7:27 pm
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 187836

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 3]

RondoDimBuckle wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 7:19 pm
NateTheLesser wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 7:16 pm
RondoDimBuckle wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 7:12 pm
NateTheLesser wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 7:07 pm
RondoDimBuckle wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 6:56 pm
NateTheLesser wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 6:53 pm
RondoDimBuckle wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 6:35 pm

You just gave me an idea. It might not pan out.
What's your idea? And are you caught up?
Reassessing from a 3 wolves on falcon point of view.
Nate/JJJ/Finger/Alison/Lucy

Why would all 3 wolves be on Falcon?
I never said it was a GOOD idea. Just that its something I could see myself doing because its so audacious

Why Lucy of that group? Wasn't she at +1.5 in your suspicion ranking thingy?
But she was still on the suspicion ranking thing and I dont know why but Boq's ability to meme/play the game seriously at the same time speaks to me. I think GTH right now I think he is town. I like how he has reacted to a lot of my probing and since he is a champs dude he knows his shit better than I do. Plus I have been suspicious of Lucy all game, every interaction that could have gone somewhere just spiraled into weirdness. I really dont feel good about her slot.
Who are you most confident is town, besides Boq? The general idea is that if you're town, and you can find 4 other town, the rest is a winning POE. And we might not agree but maybe there's overlap. Boq was basically the only one around to talk through that with all morning.
by NateTheLesser
Fri Jul 08, 2022 7:20 pm
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 187836

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 4]

@RondoDimBuckle
Here's the nugget of it viewtopic.php?t=2389&start=4800#p932651
And then starting here-ish viewtopic.php?t=2389&start=4850#p932741
by NateTheLesser
Fri Jul 08, 2022 7:16 pm
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 187836

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 3]

RondoDimBuckle wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 7:12 pm
NateTheLesser wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 7:07 pm
RondoDimBuckle wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 6:56 pm
NateTheLesser wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 6:53 pm
RondoDimBuckle wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 6:35 pm
Boquise wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 5:17 pm
Dyslexicon wrote: Sun Jul 03, 2022 2:35 pm Falcon - 8 - Nate, Jimmay, Finger, Dizzy, Ender, Mac, Alison, Lucy
Ender - 3 - Creature, Marmot, Wilgy
Marmot - 2 - Boq, Falcon
Wilgy - 1 - Sean
Dizzy - 1 - Rondo

Though weirder things have happened, it would surprise me if all mafia were on the Falcon wagon.
Creature, Marmot, Boq and Rondo are the ones alive who were off it.

I also wouldn't be surprised if none of the votes hit mafia, but that's a shrug at this point.
chances that the ender wagon is completely pure?
You just gave me an idea. It might not pan out.
What's your idea? And are you caught up?
Reassessing from a 3 wolves on falcon point of view.
Nate/JJJ/Finger/Alison/Lucy

Why would all 3 wolves be on Falcon?
I never said it was a GOOD idea. Just that its something I could see myself doing because its so audacious

Why Lucy of that group? Wasn't she at +1.5 in your suspicion ranking thingy?
by NateTheLesser
Fri Jul 08, 2022 7:15 pm
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 187836

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 3]

RondoDimBuckle wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 7:13 pm
NateTheLesser wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 7:12 pm
RondoDimBuckle wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 6:57 pm
NateTheLesser wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 6:53 pm
RondoDimBuckle wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 6:35 pm
Boquise wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 5:17 pm
Dyslexicon wrote: Sun Jul 03, 2022 2:35 pm Falcon - 8 - Nate, Jimmay, Finger, Dizzy, Ender, Mac, Alison, Lucy
Ender - 3 - Creature, Marmot, Wilgy
Marmot - 2 - Boq, Falcon
Wilgy - 1 - Sean
Dizzy - 1 - Rondo

Though weirder things have happened, it would surprise me if all mafia were on the Falcon wagon.
Creature, Marmot, Boq and Rondo are the ones alive who were off it.

I also wouldn't be surprised if none of the votes hit mafia, but that's a shrug at this point.
chances that the ender wagon is completely pure?
You just gave me an idea. It might not pan out.
What's your idea? And are you caught up?
I mean I kinda skimmed mostly. was there anything you wanted me to answer?

I've been trying to build a town core based on reading Boq/Jay's interactions yesterday as town/town. So thoughts on that general idea would be good.
Can you give me a post to start reading from and I will go from there and give you my thoughts? Or I can just go back and pick at random

Yeah sure, hold on.
by NateTheLesser
Fri Jul 08, 2022 7:12 pm
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 187836

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 3]

RondoDimBuckle wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 6:57 pm
NateTheLesser wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 6:53 pm
RondoDimBuckle wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 6:35 pm
Boquise wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 5:17 pm
Dyslexicon wrote: Sun Jul 03, 2022 2:35 pm Falcon - 8 - Nate, Jimmay, Finger, Dizzy, Ender, Mac, Alison, Lucy
Ender - 3 - Creature, Marmot, Wilgy
Marmot - 2 - Boq, Falcon
Wilgy - 1 - Sean
Dizzy - 1 - Rondo

Though weirder things have happened, it would surprise me if all mafia were on the Falcon wagon.
Creature, Marmot, Boq and Rondo are the ones alive who were off it.

I also wouldn't be surprised if none of the votes hit mafia, but that's a shrug at this point.
chances that the ender wagon is completely pure?
You just gave me an idea. It might not pan out.
What's your idea? And are you caught up?
I mean I kinda skimmed mostly. was there anything you wanted me to answer?

I've been trying to build a town core based on reading Boq/Jay's interactions yesterday as town/town. So thoughts on that general idea would be good.
by NateTheLesser
Fri Jul 08, 2022 7:07 pm
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 187836

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 3]

RondoDimBuckle wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 6:56 pm
NateTheLesser wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 6:53 pm
RondoDimBuckle wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 6:35 pm
Boquise wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 5:17 pm
Dyslexicon wrote: Sun Jul 03, 2022 2:35 pm Falcon - 8 - Nate, Jimmay, Finger, Dizzy, Ender, Mac, Alison, Lucy
Ender - 3 - Creature, Marmot, Wilgy
Marmot - 2 - Boq, Falcon
Wilgy - 1 - Sean
Dizzy - 1 - Rondo

Though weirder things have happened, it would surprise me if all mafia were on the Falcon wagon.
Creature, Marmot, Boq and Rondo are the ones alive who were off it.

I also wouldn't be surprised if none of the votes hit mafia, but that's a shrug at this point.
chances that the ender wagon is completely pure?
You just gave me an idea. It might not pan out.
What's your idea? And are you caught up?
Reassessing from a 3 wolves on falcon point of view.
Nate/JJJ/Finger/Alison/Lucy

Why would all 3 wolves be on Falcon?
by NateTheLesser
Fri Jul 08, 2022 6:57 pm
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 187836

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 4]

Marmot wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 5:59 pm Stuck at work. Won't be around before deadline

Vote Jay
If you have a minute, can you give me the cliff's notes on why you think Jay is lock wolf today when you had him as likely town yesterday?
by NateTheLesser
Fri Jul 08, 2022 6:53 pm
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 187836

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 3]

RondoDimBuckle wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 6:35 pm
Boquise wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 5:17 pm
Dyslexicon wrote: Sun Jul 03, 2022 2:35 pm Falcon - 8 - Nate, Jimmay, Finger, Dizzy, Ender, Mac, Alison, Lucy
Ender - 3 - Creature, Marmot, Wilgy
Marmot - 2 - Boq, Falcon
Wilgy - 1 - Sean
Dizzy - 1 - Rondo

Though weirder things have happened, it would surprise me if all mafia were on the Falcon wagon.
Creature, Marmot, Boq and Rondo are the ones alive who were off it.

I also wouldn't be surprised if none of the votes hit mafia, but that's a shrug at this point.
chances that the ender wagon is completely pure?
You just gave me an idea. It might not pan out.
What's your idea? And are you caught up?
by NateTheLesser
Fri Jul 08, 2022 5:51 pm
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 187836

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 4]

Boquise wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 5:39 pm [VOTE: Lucy] aubergine

meh
Thoughts on Lucy vs Alison if you're still awake? Seems like Alison has been in a lot of POEs.
by NateTheLesser
Fri Jul 08, 2022 5:39 pm
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 187836

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 4]

lucy wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 4:43 pm
NateTheLesser wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 3:16 pm
Boquise wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 3:11 pm Honestly, game state should be easy. Remove 4 people from the poe and we have a wolf team
That's exactly it. If I trust my gut that you/Jay are town, I'm halfway there AND you're both strong players. Are either of you good enough to burn me on that? Sure. But at least for today I'd rather solve from that position.
mafia creates such a game state by leaving inactive townies alive, but can you give me more of an argument for why you boq and jjj are town?
If you read back to earlier this morning you'll see why I think they're town, mostly based on their interactions yesterday. And you can tell me what you think of it. You thought I could be w/w with Ender, does Ender flipping town change your read of me?
by NateTheLesser
Fri Jul 08, 2022 4:33 pm
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 187836

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 4]

What are your pros/cons with Marmot? Would you place him in your 4 town?

And talk to me about Lucy, you said you had a spicy take.

(I need to run some errands, but I'll be back in a bit)
by NateTheLesser
Fri Jul 08, 2022 4:01 pm
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 187836

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 0]

Boquise wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 3:42 pm
NateTheLesser wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 12:36 pm One of the things I was pinged by in the last few hours of yesterday that I wanted to go back and find, was Marmot's handling of Dizzy. There was a point where Marmot got frustrated that Dizzy wouldn't just make up his mind, especially that he continued to tinfoil Marmot despite Marmot agreeing with him. I'm quoting Marmot's explanation from the time too, because I buy that the frustration was real and I can see it coming from a towny place of trying to work with Dizzy but being suspected. But I can also see it as frustration that Dizzy is a wildcard that just won't stay pocketed. This is the relevant stuff, spoilered for length:
Spoiler: show
Marmot wrote: Tue Jul 05, 2022 7:06 pm
Dyslexicon wrote: Tue Jul 05, 2022 6:04 pm
Marmot wrote: Tue Jul 05, 2022 3:00 pm
Dyslexicon wrote: Tue Jul 05, 2022 2:46 pm
Marmot wrote: Tue Jul 05, 2022 2:43 pm

There was a point in Fleabag where Jay took multiple votes at the end of a day phase in the form of a flashwagon. I took the opportunity to support it to make it look like it had some serious momentum, both to gauge Jay's reaction, and to gauge the thread's reaction to seeing him as a wagon.

Jay's reaction at the time I found townie. I already thought he was town (which I was right), so perhaps I had conf-biased myself, but I thought it was a potentially useful exercise nonetheless. I don't remember much else from that event.

Seeing momentum here, I thought it could be useful to try said tactic again. Jay does look like he's had momentum building on him since mid Day 2 or so. I however think he's still performed just fine under that pressure.


Also, as I've said before, I think Jay is turning into the fallguy for the heat being put on the towncore, and I believe that makes it more likely a miss.
Wat.

That was a complete meme wagon, and Jimmay was never going over in that game.

Whereas here, the suspicion on him is very real.

Do you expect him to perform bad under pressure as mafia more?

Why do you have that feeling, that he's the fallguy? Ender and me have pressured him, Alison to a lesser degree.
I mean, someone who isn't caught up and peaks at the poll doesn't know that

I've already explained it. Boq/jjj/Alison keep getting mentioned as a group, and Jay is taking most of the heat of that group

Boq had taken some.

Alison has taken next to none.


What do you think about that
@Alison I'm getting really bad feels from this whole exchange in regards to Jay/Marmot

Are you even trying to entertain my perspective?
Dyslexicon wrote: Tue Jul 05, 2022 7:07 pm
Marmot wrote: Tue Jul 05, 2022 7:06 pmAre you even trying to entertain my perspective?
Yes. I also feel like it's kind of outrageous for me to tinfoil you while doing it. Maybe I should stop
Marmot wrote: Tue Jul 05, 2022 7:09 pm
Dyslexicon wrote: Tue Jul 05, 2022 6:16 pm
Alison wrote: Tue Jul 05, 2022 6:10 pmWhat makes you think Jay/Marmot are aligned specifically? And why does the Ender read anchor the rest of yours?
I'm having weird inexplicable creepy feels about Marmot, a player I should town read if he's town. I think he might be out of scum range, but at the same time, I can't shake the suspicion. I also dreamt that I read the thread and was convinced Jay/Marmot was mafia. Yes, this is real. Marmot voted for Jay when me and Ender asked, but imo he's been hedgy about a read there and I felt that he didn't really want to vote there. I was not happy with the way he made it to be a reaction vote when I asked him about it later. He also said Jay is taking a lot of heat, when in fact, it was pretty much just me and Ender. Doesn't seem real. Jay's read on Marmot also feels like it could be on a teammate.

Boq/Jay interaction is also weird. Boq null reading Jay in spite of the thread is something I didn't notice, but it is striking to me now. Then Jay makes a whole case and a scum read on Boq. Boq ends up town reading Jay. Jay votes somewhere else.

Ender is the town read where I have probably made the biggest leap of faith. I don't see anything scummy in his posts really. I don't see who he would be teamed with. He doesn't seem concerned about being caught as scum at all. I just don't think he is. If this is wrong anyway though, my reads would obviously be a lot different.
Don't ask me to vote for Jay if you can't deal with the pressure of forcing that wagon
Marmot wrote: Tue Jul 05, 2022 7:10 pm I don't know what to say Dizzy, it's hard to work with you when you turn around and talk about your tinfoil read on me multiple times a day. I want to. I'm putting aside my paranoia of you for now to try and do the same.
Marmot wrote: Tue Jul 05, 2022 7:15 pm
Dyslexicon wrote: Tue Jul 05, 2022 7:11 pm
Marmot wrote: Tue Jul 05, 2022 7:09 pmDon't ask me to vote for Jay if you can't deal with the pressure of forcing that wagon
I don't really know what you're saying here.

I'm frustrated that you seem to tinfoil me when I'm trying to entertain your desires in this game.

Worth noting that Dizzy was tinfoiling Marmot but never voted there, his vote was jumping between Jay/Alison/Creature for much of the day.

Also worth noting that their original disagreement was about Jay. This is the start of it:
Marmot wrote: Tue Jul 05, 2022 2:43 pm
Dyslexicon wrote: Tue Jul 05, 2022 2:35 pm
Marmot wrote: Tue Jul 05, 2022 2:34 pm
Dyslexicon wrote: Tue Jul 05, 2022 2:33 pm
Marmot wrote: Tue Jul 05, 2022 2:33 pm

Fleabag
What does that mean?
:ponder:
No, I'm really asking.
There was a point in Fleabag where Jay took multiple votes at the end of a day phase in the form of a flashwagon. I took the opportunity to support it to make it look like it had some serious momentum, both to gauge Jay's reaction, and to gauge the thread's reaction to seeing him as a wagon.

Jay's reaction at the time I found townie. I already thought he was town (which I was right), so perhaps I had conf-biased myself, but I thought it was a potentially useful exercise nonetheless. I don't remember much else from that event.

Seeing momentum here, I thought it could be useful to try said tactic again. Jay does look like he's had momentum building on him since mid Day 2 or so. I however think he's still performed just fine under that pressure.


Also, as I've said before, I think Jay is turning into the fallguy for the heat being put on the towncore, and I believe that makes it more likely a miss.

And I'm trying to untangle the thread of Marmot's read on Jay at this point. He voted Jay earlier (3rd vote), but it was a test to see how Jay reacted and Marmot thought Jay handled it the same as in Fleabag when Jay was town. But then he was frustrated that Dizzy changed his mind and moved off of Jay:
"Don't ask me to vote for Jay if you can't deal with the pressure of forcing that wagon"

Why the frustration if he thinks Jay is town? And what between then and now has moved Jay to lock wolf?
I do remember that I thought Marmot's reaction was weird because it was such a stark contrast to mine. I cant really give you a yeh town or yeh scum conclusion though

Well, maybe the better question is whether we believe that Marmot's vote for Jay was indeed a reaction test, since the core disagreement here was Dizzy asking why he voted Jay, Marmot pointing to a past game to say it was a similar reaction test, and Dizzy calling bullshit (and tinfoiling Jay/Marmot as paired for it). I need to go back and look at the context.
by NateTheLesser
Fri Jul 08, 2022 3:35 pm
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 187836

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 4]

I was about to ask you to help me sort Marmot vs Lucy :P

I posted the beginnings of a case earlier, mostly around Marmot's interactions yesterday with Dizzy and the progression of his Jay read. I recall that the Dizzy interaction was something you commented when it happened yesterday, so I'm wondering how you feel about it today. I'm also looking forward to Marmot responding to it.

Despite whatever misgivings I have, if Marmot's town I'd much rather find that before EOD and keep him alive. And if he's town, that would mean bumping Lucy or Fingersplints into my POE. I worry about having so many low posters in my POE, but I'm not sure how to get around that. Another thing we'd have to reckon with is Marmot's townreads of Creature/Fingersplints.
by NateTheLesser
Fri Jul 08, 2022 3:20 pm
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 187836

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 4]

And I'm not really considering a world where you/Jay are w/w. I think your insistence of a wolf in you/Alison/Jay would be frankly insane if that was a 2/3. (Which also rules out you/Alison as teamed in my mind)
by NateTheLesser
Fri Jul 08, 2022 3:16 pm
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 187836

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 4]

Boquise wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 3:11 pm Honestly, game state should be easy. Remove 4 people from the poe and we have a wolf team
That's exactly it. If I trust my gut that you/Jay are town, I'm halfway there AND you're both strong players. Are either of you good enough to burn me on that? Sure. But at least for today I'd rather solve from that position.
by NateTheLesser
Fri Jul 08, 2022 3:05 pm
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 187836

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 4]

Gamestate read: if w!Jay and t!Marmot, I would expect my early Marmot vote to have gotten more interest, because it would represent an unexpected opportunity for a mischop (I feel similarly about w!Jay t!Creature). Unless the plan for the day was to bus Jay and not deviate.
by NateTheLesser
Fri Jul 08, 2022 2:35 pm
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 187836

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 4]

Despite suspecting Marmot, I think he's right that people are talking past each other. We're at a point where we need to play with our cards on the table, find other Town and work with them.
by NateTheLesser
Fri Jul 08, 2022 2:27 pm
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 187836

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 4]

And since that's a read based largely on Boq's motivations, I'd appreciate Jay's take on it.
by NateTheLesser
Fri Jul 08, 2022 2:25 pm
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 187836

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 4]

Boquise wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 1:50 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 1:30 pm A question that is, to this point, unanswered for me, Boq, is why the Seanzie kill points to that triad. I don’t think that reflects the truth of the game state at the time.
It does because at that gamestate we all three were in the towncore with very little shade, and if none of us contained wolves, the chance that a wolf team is at least worried about you and Alison are likely, or see me as a wild card
For the record, I think I'm closer to Jay on this, in that I think the Seanzie kill definitely fits with a wolf in you/Alison/Jay, but I didn't think it strongly indicated that there was one. And I made that case yesterday when you first brought up the idea. I think the difference between our gamestate and something like Game 4 is that "wolf in the towncore" was an idea that took hold pretty early on their Day 2 (that's how at least a few of them read the Cappu kill). And our "towncore" was not as clean as theirs in G4, Jay and Alison had both gotten at least some heat. I think you were probably the cleanest of the 3.

But I also don't think you were pushing that idea for sketchy reasons. The only reason I can think of that you would push a POE of 3 that includes yourself if you were a wolf would be to try to get a chop of Jay or Alison. #1, day 3 seems early to push that unless the plan was to push a Jay mischop into an Alison mischop (and there are much more viable mischop targets in this game than those two). And #2, you backed off Jay and gave him a townread when he was in a vulnerable spot.
by NateTheLesser
Fri Jul 08, 2022 12:39 pm
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 187836

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 4]

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 12:07 pm I continue to like where Nate's head is at.
I'm not calling for your head, so I'm sure that helps.

What's your priority in people you're reevaluating? Why Creature first?
by NateTheLesser
Fri Jul 08, 2022 12:36 pm
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 187836

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 0]

One of the things I was pinged by in the last few hours of yesterday that I wanted to go back and find, was Marmot's handling of Dizzy. There was a point where Marmot got frustrated that Dizzy wouldn't just make up his mind, especially that he continued to tinfoil Marmot despite Marmot agreeing with him. I'm quoting Marmot's explanation from the time too, because I buy that the frustration was real and I can see it coming from a towny place of trying to work with Dizzy but being suspected. But I can also see it as frustration that Dizzy is a wildcard that just won't stay pocketed. This is the relevant stuff, spoilered for length:
Spoiler: show
Marmot wrote: Tue Jul 05, 2022 7:06 pm
Dyslexicon wrote: Tue Jul 05, 2022 6:04 pm
Marmot wrote: Tue Jul 05, 2022 3:00 pm
Dyslexicon wrote: Tue Jul 05, 2022 2:46 pm
Marmot wrote: Tue Jul 05, 2022 2:43 pm
Dyslexicon wrote: Tue Jul 05, 2022 2:35 pm
Marmot wrote: Tue Jul 05, 2022 2:34 pm

:ponder:
No, I'm really asking.
There was a point in Fleabag where Jay took multiple votes at the end of a day phase in the form of a flashwagon. I took the opportunity to support it to make it look like it had some serious momentum, both to gauge Jay's reaction, and to gauge the thread's reaction to seeing him as a wagon.

Jay's reaction at the time I found townie. I already thought he was town (which I was right), so perhaps I had conf-biased myself, but I thought it was a potentially useful exercise nonetheless. I don't remember much else from that event.

Seeing momentum here, I thought it could be useful to try said tactic again. Jay does look like he's had momentum building on him since mid Day 2 or so. I however think he's still performed just fine under that pressure.


Also, as I've said before, I think Jay is turning into the fallguy for the heat being put on the towncore, and I believe that makes it more likely a miss.
Wat.

That was a complete meme wagon, and Jimmay was never going over in that game.

Whereas here, the suspicion on him is very real.

Do you expect him to perform bad under pressure as mafia more?

Why do you have that feeling, that he's the fallguy? Ender and me have pressured him, Alison to a lesser degree.
I mean, someone who isn't caught up and peaks at the poll doesn't know that

I've already explained it. Boq/jjj/Alison keep getting mentioned as a group, and Jay is taking most of the heat of that group

Boq had taken some.

Alison has taken next to none.


What do you think about that
@Alison I'm getting really bad feels from this whole exchange in regards to Jay/Marmot

Are you even trying to entertain my perspective?
Dyslexicon wrote: Tue Jul 05, 2022 7:07 pm
Marmot wrote: Tue Jul 05, 2022 7:06 pmAre you even trying to entertain my perspective?
Yes. I also feel like it's kind of outrageous for me to tinfoil you while doing it. Maybe I should stop
Marmot wrote: Tue Jul 05, 2022 7:09 pm
Dyslexicon wrote: Tue Jul 05, 2022 6:16 pm
Alison wrote: Tue Jul 05, 2022 6:10 pmWhat makes you think Jay/Marmot are aligned specifically? And why does the Ender read anchor the rest of yours?
I'm having weird inexplicable creepy feels about Marmot, a player I should town read if he's town. I think he might be out of scum range, but at the same time, I can't shake the suspicion. I also dreamt that I read the thread and was convinced Jay/Marmot was mafia. Yes, this is real. Marmot voted for Jay when me and Ender asked, but imo he's been hedgy about a read there and I felt that he didn't really want to vote there. I was not happy with the way he made it to be a reaction vote when I asked him about it later. He also said Jay is taking a lot of heat, when in fact, it was pretty much just me and Ender. Doesn't seem real. Jay's read on Marmot also feels like it could be on a teammate.

Boq/Jay interaction is also weird. Boq null reading Jay in spite of the thread is something I didn't notice, but it is striking to me now. Then Jay makes a whole case and a scum read on Boq. Boq ends up town reading Jay. Jay votes somewhere else.

Ender is the town read where I have probably made the biggest leap of faith. I don't see anything scummy in his posts really. I don't see who he would be teamed with. He doesn't seem concerned about being caught as scum at all. I just don't think he is. If this is wrong anyway though, my reads would obviously be a lot different.
Don't ask me to vote for Jay if you can't deal with the pressure of forcing that wagon
Marmot wrote: Tue Jul 05, 2022 7:10 pm I don't know what to say Dizzy, it's hard to work with you when you turn around and talk about your tinfoil read on me multiple times a day. I want to. I'm putting aside my paranoia of you for now to try and do the same.
Marmot wrote: Tue Jul 05, 2022 7:15 pm
Dyslexicon wrote: Tue Jul 05, 2022 7:11 pm
Marmot wrote: Tue Jul 05, 2022 7:09 pmDon't ask me to vote for Jay if you can't deal with the pressure of forcing that wagon
I don't really know what you're saying here.

I'm frustrated that you seem to tinfoil me when I'm trying to entertain your desires in this game.

Worth noting that Dizzy was tinfoiling Marmot but never voted there, his vote was jumping between Jay/Alison/Creature for much of the day.

Also worth noting that their original disagreement was about Jay. This is the start of it:
Marmot wrote: Tue Jul 05, 2022 2:43 pm
Dyslexicon wrote: Tue Jul 05, 2022 2:35 pm
Marmot wrote: Tue Jul 05, 2022 2:34 pm
Dyslexicon wrote: Tue Jul 05, 2022 2:33 pm
Marmot wrote: Tue Jul 05, 2022 2:33 pm
Dyslexicon wrote: Tue Jul 05, 2022 2:32 pm @Marmot Why did you vote Jimmay when you clearly didn't want to?
Fleabag
What does that mean?
:ponder:
No, I'm really asking.
There was a point in Fleabag where Jay took multiple votes at the end of a day phase in the form of a flashwagon. I took the opportunity to support it to make it look like it had some serious momentum, both to gauge Jay's reaction, and to gauge the thread's reaction to seeing him as a wagon.

Jay's reaction at the time I found townie. I already thought he was town (which I was right), so perhaps I had conf-biased myself, but I thought it was a potentially useful exercise nonetheless. I don't remember much else from that event.

Seeing momentum here, I thought it could be useful to try said tactic again. Jay does look like he's had momentum building on him since mid Day 2 or so. I however think he's still performed just fine under that pressure.


Also, as I've said before, I think Jay is turning into the fallguy for the heat being put on the towncore, and I believe that makes it more likely a miss.

And I'm trying to untangle the thread of Marmot's read on Jay at this point. He voted Jay earlier (3rd vote), but it was a test to see how Jay reacted and Marmot thought Jay handled it the same as in Fleabag when Jay was town. But then he was frustrated that Dizzy changed his mind and moved off of Jay:
"Don't ask me to vote for Jay if you can't deal with the pressure of forcing that wagon"

Why the frustration if he thinks Jay is town? And what between then and now has moved Jay to lock wolf?
by NateTheLesser
Fri Jul 08, 2022 11:33 am
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 187836

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 4]

Alison wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 3:20 am
Boquise wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 3:06 am
Alison wrote: Thu Jul 07, 2022 9:22 pm
Boquise wrote: Thu Jul 07, 2022 6:31 pm
Alison wrote: Thu Jul 07, 2022 4:49 am
Boquise wrote: Thu Jul 07, 2022 2:19 am This kill again points at 1 scum inside me/JJJ/Alison btw so I am feeling smug about being right there.
I don't disagree with your conclusion, but what makes you think the kill points that way?
Because scum is killing around us.
You think scum would kill any of the three of us over Dizzy even if we were all town? We all have considerably more heat than him, and he shielded Ender last day phase.
That's a very fair point that I did not consider.
I think Dizzy was pretty pushable until yesterday, so sure, maybe he could be killed if all of us are town, but there's also the seanize kill
I think it's fair to say the Seanzie kill points there. I was curious why you thought the Dizzy kill points there too.

I don't disagree that there is very likely a scum in us three.

I'm trying to reconcile the softness of this agreement with the fact that you came into today lock-voting Jay. From your POV I'd expect you to be certain that there's a wolf in those three. Especially since, and correct me if I'm wrong, near EOD you were saying that if Ender v then both Jay and Boq are wolves.
by NateTheLesser
Fri Jul 08, 2022 11:15 am
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 187836

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 4]

fingersplints wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 6:28 am GTH who is the exact mafia team?

Everyone pls answer
If I had to pick an exact team right now I'd say Marmot/Alison/Creature.

What's your answer?
by NateTheLesser
Fri Jul 08, 2022 2:27 am
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 187836

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 4]

Marmot wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 12:48 am Sorry for being snappy.

I don't trust a word you say Nate because you started the day with a post that flipped a townread on me, indicated that you had not read anything overnight to indicate a change in stance, then said you were going to go find evidence to back it up.

It looks like an agenda to me, and even leaked out in your post. And it's been over 24 hours since your vote was placed, and you have not pursued finding any evidence to support said change in stance as you said you would.


Creature has been a point of contention in this game. I still think there is reason to believe he is town. Several other players apparently do not, including you. I would like to know what your read on him is at this moment.
Work rudely decided to make me actually do things today.

I'm reevaluating a lot of people, not just you. The long and short of it is, I came out of yesterday townreading Boq and Jay; I still townread Lucy (though I wish she'd actually get involved); and I think at least one of Finger/Creature is town (I lean Finger at this point). That gives me all the town I need for a winning POE of you/Alison/Rondo/(the other of Finger/Creature). So that's where I'm at today, and I need to see if it holds up.

The thing I didn't find convincing about your Fingersplints towncase, and what you've now done with Creature as well, is that it's all meta. I asked you a couple times to point to Fingersplints posts in this game that you liked, but you didn't (that I saw). If there are posts that you think show Creature is town, I'd like to see them. It's not difficult to find posts of his that are anti-town at best. Like this progression is one that has stuck in my mind:
Creature wrote: Fri Jul 01, 2022 3:51 pm Is there a good case for Fingersplints? I'm not sure if I can read them.
Creature wrote: Fri Jul 01, 2022 3:57 pm Whatever

[VOTE: DrWilgy] aubergine
NateTheLesser wrote: Fri Jul 01, 2022 4:05 pm
Creature wrote: Fri Jul 01, 2022 3:51 pm Is there a good case for Fingersplints? I'm not sure if I can read them.
This is Alison's case:
Alison wrote: Fri Jul 01, 2022 2:52 am fingersplints' ISO:

Nate has identified #1325 as a particularly sketchy post, because it shifts responsibility for the falcon exe onto Mac, and also hedges her own stance on falcon. I tend to agree with Nate here, and think it's a bad look for fingersplints.

I didn't like #1363 either. She says that she's contemplating where we should vote if we misexe on D1, but there's no followup, and I don't see her talking about the results of this contemplation later on, even where it is appropriate and natural to do so (eg. in #1458 where she is talking about how she wouldn't mind a falcon flip as it would give lots of interactives to figure out where to vote next). Alarmingly, she also does not bring up the results of this contemplation when we do end up missing D1. This suggests that she was just saying it to look like she was solving without actually putting in real analysis or thought into where we should go if our D1 flips green.

I didn't like #2012 either because it looks like her taking a cheap shot at Boquise's attempts to read into Mac's legacy. I'm generally pretty skeptical of discrediting a strong townie's legacy completely or brushing off nightkills as "who knows?" without at least trying to read into them.

She then proceeds to claim that she thought Boquise was treated as null by the rest of the thread, when in my view he was clearly being treated as consensus town. This might be a good sign for her, because it suggests that she is distinctly uninformed: I think she would likely know how the thread is treating Boquise more accurately if she was in scum chat and had partners to catch her up.

In #2128, she says she's interested in taking a closer look at Creature, but then doesn't mention Creature again. Votes for Dizzy instead in #2133 - which is a reasonable vote, but her interest in Creature seems to have mysteriously vanished.

-

Overall, I'd say that I came out of fingersplints' ISO with a markedly worse impression of her before. I broadly agree with Nate's claim that her vote on falcon was hedgy and accountability-dodging, and I'd add that at two separate points in the game she indicates she'll look into something and then never brings it up or mentions it again, even when it would be very natural to do so.

Based off this, I'd be happy to back a fingersplints wagon, and have her in my bottom POE.
Ender and Boq disagree.
NateTheLesser wrote: Fri Jul 01, 2022 4:09 pm Oh, Marmot also thinks Fingersplints is town.
Creature wrote: Fri Jul 01, 2022 5:37 pm
NateTheLesser wrote: Fri Jul 01, 2022 5:36 pm
Creature wrote: Fri Jul 01, 2022 5:22 pm
Dyslexicon wrote: Fri Jul 01, 2022 5:00 pm
Dyslexicon wrote: Fri Jul 01, 2022 4:59 pm [VOTE: Alison] aubergine
This may or may not be a good idea.

And a Wilgy/Creature vote may be safer
wtf I'm not a valid vote for today
You asked earlier what the case for Fingersplints was and I quoted Alison's ISO case for you. Did you see it?
Yes, but didn't read. Might consider.

Comes in asking if there's a case on Fingersplints. Votes Wilgy a few minutes later without getting an answer. I quote the case at him as well as who disagrees with it. Later he admits he didn't read it. It's pretty easy to wolfread that as someone who wants to move their vote to a better counterwagon but also seem like they're interested in solving.
by NateTheLesser
Thu Jul 07, 2022 7:57 pm
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 187836

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 4]

Creature wrote: Thu Jul 07, 2022 7:53 pm We can't afford infolynching anymore.
I agree! Did you read Boq's case? Do you still think Jay/Boq are paired?
by NateTheLesser
Thu Jul 07, 2022 7:48 pm
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 187836

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 3]

Marmot wrote: Thu Jul 07, 2022 7:02 pm
NateTheLesser wrote: Thu Jul 07, 2022 11:57 am
Marmot wrote: Wed Jul 06, 2022 10:20 pm
Marmot wrote: Wed Jul 06, 2022 10:13 pm I still think Creature's town tbh. I review two of his scum games and two of his town games in the last year, and his posting is far more in line with his town games. Specifically his paranoid complaints about mis-elimming at EOD. There's just none of that in his scum games, and quite a bit in his town games.

Town

Pandas vs Trash Pandas
RPG Mafia

Scum

Rings of Power
Fall of Númenor



Creature voters, I'm curious if you agree with this take.

@fingersplints @RondoDimBuckle @NateTheLesser
Marmot wrote: Thu Jul 07, 2022 1:24 am @JaggedJimmyJay can I get your current read on Creature?
Can I ask why Creature is a priority for you to solve coming into today?

Creature is one of the few living players to have garnered wagons on them in this game.

I tagged those people because they all had EOD votes on him.

Yeah, I get that. But with the Ender miss, heading into the night phase, was Creature top of your list of players you need to look into? And what conclusions about gamestate etc are you drawing from that?

Also, to answer your actual ping, I honestly don't get much from meta ISOs of other games. Maybe other people do but I don't.
by NateTheLesser
Thu Jul 07, 2022 7:27 pm
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 187836

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 4]

Boquise wrote: Thu Jul 07, 2022 7:15 pmthere are some differences like level of engagement and takes i think, but there is a good point you show there in your quote. But why is it unlikely that a scum says that?
It's not impossible. But I think Dizzy's statement is something that wolves will often gloss over because they know the premise isn't true, rather than try to give themselves credit for it.
by NateTheLesser
Thu Jul 07, 2022 7:14 pm
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 187836

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 4]

Boquise wrote: Thu Jul 07, 2022 7:08 pm
NateTheLesser wrote: Thu Jul 07, 2022 7:05 pm
Boquise wrote: Thu Jul 07, 2022 6:28 pm
NateTheLesser wrote: Thu Jul 07, 2022 12:15 pm
Boquise wrote: Thu Jul 07, 2022 2:19 am Hi.
Don't think for a second that I didn't see how several players last EOD tried to chainsaw me into an Ender yeet with "if Ender flips town Boq is wolf".

I am surprised I have zero votes and JJJ is getting heat, but I'm going to give everyone who said that homework. Explain why you thought so.

This kill again points at 1 scum inside me/JJJ/Alison btw so I am feeling smug about being right there.

Also. I am only 20 pages left to be done with reading the MU qualis. I am going to have a headache for a wee while afterwards, but it also mean that today I will be able to play with much more ease. Sorry woofs tbh
The impression I was left with after your interactions with JJJ yesterday was that it was two town players who somewhat reluctantly found each other after some mutual suspicion. And reading you both as town is a big factor in my view of the gamestate today. So I'm wondering if you see the "olive branch" the same way you did yesterday?
yea
Okay, so FMPOV if you two are town then I only need 2 more town and I can chop the rest. What do you think of Lucy? Because I still think she's town.
I am no longer sure on Lucy and might have a spicy take on her tbh
I still think Fingers is town and so is Rondo though his posts against me are a bit wolfy
Okay. Part of my read on Lucy is that she still seems very similar to her qualifier. Since you've been marinating in those, do you think there are differences here that are important?

And she occasionally has posts that don't fit (for me) with a wolf perspective, like this one:
lucy wrote: Tue Jul 05, 2022 8:43 pm
Dyslexicon wrote: Tue Jul 05, 2022 8:42 pm If Ender is w, I'm pretty sure Nate is w too
didn't I think this 2 days ago
Taking credit for "solving" me/Ender as w/w when w!Lucy would know that Ender is about to flip v.
by NateTheLesser
Thu Jul 07, 2022 7:07 pm
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 187836

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 2]

Boquise wrote: Thu Jul 07, 2022 7:03 pm
Boquise wrote: Thu Jul 07, 2022 6:42 pm
RondoDimBuckle wrote: Thu Jul 07, 2022 6:38 pm
Boquise wrote: Thu Jul 07, 2022 6:36 pm
RondoDimBuckle wrote: Thu Jul 07, 2022 7:19 am
DrWilgy wrote: Fri Jul 01, 2022 9:21 pm I think it's funny that with the exception of boq, all my scum reads are on me.

Oh well. Yeet Ender when I'm gone.
Evidence against Boq
How is this evidence against me?
I think I go over it later because it doesn't make sense with another post so this on its own I lost confidence in
Sounds like a cop-out tbh
No, tell me how Wilgy saying that I am their only NON-scum read who is voting them, is evidence against me tbh. I want to understand where that thought sparked from when you read that specific post. Or are you saying that you immediately connected that post with another? If so I need to see that post too tbh
Image
I think one of you is mis-reading it. "...with the exception of Boq, all my scum reads are on me" I initially read as "all my scum reads except Boq are on me", which would imply you are a scum read. But you were voting for Wilgy there, so I think he meant "all my voters are scum reads except for Boq".
by NateTheLesser
Thu Jul 07, 2022 7:05 pm
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 187836

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 4]

Boquise wrote: Thu Jul 07, 2022 6:28 pm
NateTheLesser wrote: Thu Jul 07, 2022 12:15 pm
Boquise wrote: Thu Jul 07, 2022 2:19 am Hi.
Don't think for a second that I didn't see how several players last EOD tried to chainsaw me into an Ender yeet with "if Ender flips town Boq is wolf".

I am surprised I have zero votes and JJJ is getting heat, but I'm going to give everyone who said that homework. Explain why you thought so.

This kill again points at 1 scum inside me/JJJ/Alison btw so I am feeling smug about being right there.

Also. I am only 20 pages left to be done with reading the MU qualis. I am going to have a headache for a wee while afterwards, but it also mean that today I will be able to play with much more ease. Sorry woofs tbh
The impression I was left with after your interactions with JJJ yesterday was that it was two town players who somewhat reluctantly found each other after some mutual suspicion. And reading you both as town is a big factor in my view of the gamestate today. So I'm wondering if you see the "olive branch" the same way you did yesterday?
yea
Okay, so FMPOV if you two are town then I only need 2 more town and I can chop the rest. What do you think of Lucy? Because I still think she's town.
by NateTheLesser
Thu Jul 07, 2022 6:48 pm
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 187836

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 4]

RondoDimBuckle wrote: Thu Jul 07, 2022 6:43 pm
NateTheLesser wrote: Thu Jul 07, 2022 12:28 pm @RondoDimBuckle can you explain your chart a bit? The numbers are how many times players were on the same wagon at EOD? What do the colors mean?

Also @JaggedJimmyJay do you have an updated version of your interaction chart?
Basically people voting together for pairing purposes on its own its kinda useless but it helps highlight possibilities for me. The colours are the increased % of always voting together, grey is never voted together but for lucy and boq they are one step higher because of a missing day.
And the numbers you compiled after the chart were trying to count up the town/scum reads of the dead players?

If you feel like doing it, I'd be interested in the numbers if you only take into account Mac/Sean/Dizzy, since those are the players the wolves directly removed from the game (eg maybe they had overlapping suspicions that were correct).
by NateTheLesser
Thu Jul 07, 2022 4:59 pm
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 187836

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 4]

That's partly why I want to hear from Boq when his brain re-solidifies.
by NateTheLesser
Thu Jul 07, 2022 4:51 pm
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 187836

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 4]

fingersplints wrote: Thu Jul 07, 2022 3:55 pm
NateTheLesser wrote: Thu Jul 07, 2022 3:36 pm
fingersplints wrote: Thu Jul 07, 2022 2:32 pm I checked the kill this morning but agent been able to be around all day, but while I was walking to pick up my daughter I had thought that maybe there wasn’t actually mafia in the JJJ/Boq/Alison group and it might be just a setup to throw suspicion on those three who were town lead, so whoever mentions it today is suspicious
Interesting that it’s Boq
Boquise wrote: Thu Jul 07, 2022 2:19 am

This kill again points at 1 scum inside me/JJJ/Alison btw so I am feeling smug about being right there.
I’m curious as to who was the first person to suggest this trio (if it was also Boq - so maybe actually the mafia in the group but thought it was more likely to get the others with votes) but doubt I’ll be able to find it and not that curious to spend hours looking.

Anyways just random mafia musings I had while out walking
It was Boq that suggested it yesterday, yes, that the Sean kill pointed to that group. I think the group originally came about because Alison/Boq/JJJ/Lucy were kind of the consensus townreads on day one. Are you saying that him bringing it up makes him more likely to be the mafia in that group if there is one?
I’m suggesting it is a possibility, yes, that he is the mafia there. I’ve previously stated that of the trio I find him most suspicious, so this isn’t entirely a new idea on my part. Only my idea that the mafia leaves alone the other consensus town reads and then has one of them (boq) keep mentioning that it’s weird they are all being left alone. This would be a gamble including himself in the group but perhaps he thought (rightfully it seems) it would be easy to divert attention to the other two.
This is just a theory I’m thinking about right now, as it matches my existing suspicions and would be true to my current townread of Jay and Alison.
My other theory is that I’m very wrong.
I thought about that, and it would be a way to push Jay or Alison. But it means lumping himself into a POE of 3 that becomes a POE of 2 if he succeeds in getting one of them chopped. And, he backed off Jay and gave him a pretty strong town read at a point when Jay was in the lead, so why back off if his plan is working?
by NateTheLesser
Thu Jul 07, 2022 4:45 pm
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 187836

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 4]

fingersplints wrote: Thu Jul 07, 2022 3:59 pm How many more mistakes can we make before game over?
If we miss today, it's final-7 tomorrow and game over if we miss again.
by NateTheLesser
Thu Jul 07, 2022 3:36 pm
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 187836

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 4]

fingersplints wrote: Thu Jul 07, 2022 2:32 pm I checked the kill this morning but agent been able to be around all day, but while I was walking to pick up my daughter I had thought that maybe there wasn’t actually mafia in the JJJ/Boq/Alison group and it might be just a setup to throw suspicion on those three who were town lead, so whoever mentions it today is suspicious
Interesting that it’s Boq
Boquise wrote: Thu Jul 07, 2022 2:19 am

This kill again points at 1 scum inside me/JJJ/Alison btw so I am feeling smug about being right there.
I’m curious as to who was the first person to suggest this trio (if it was also Boq - so maybe actually the mafia in the group but thought it was more likely to get the others with votes) but doubt I’ll be able to find it and not that curious to spend hours looking.

Anyways just random mafia musings I had while out walking
It was Boq that suggested it yesterday, yes, that the Sean kill pointed to that group. I think the group originally came about because Alison/Boq/JJJ/Lucy were kind of the consensus townreads on day one. Are you saying that him bringing it up makes him more likely to be the mafia in that group if there is one?
by NateTheLesser
Thu Jul 07, 2022 3:30 pm
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 187836

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 4]

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Thu Jul 07, 2022 2:17 pm No, I haven't been able to put such a thing together. Are there particular interactions that interest you, Nate?
This is my first experience with your chart, I was hoping it's something you keep refining as the game goes on.
by NateTheLesser
Thu Jul 07, 2022 12:28 pm
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 187836

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 4]

@RondoDimBuckle can you explain your chart a bit? The numbers are how many times players were on the same wagon at EOD? What do the colors mean?

Also @JaggedJimmyJay do you have an updated version of your interaction chart?
by NateTheLesser
Thu Jul 07, 2022 12:15 pm
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 187836

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 4]

Boquise wrote: Thu Jul 07, 2022 2:19 am Hi.
Don't think for a second that I didn't see how several players last EOD tried to chainsaw me into an Ender yeet with "if Ender flips town Boq is wolf".

I am surprised I have zero votes and JJJ is getting heat, but I'm going to give everyone who said that homework. Explain why you thought so.

This kill again points at 1 scum inside me/JJJ/Alison btw so I am feeling smug about being right there.

Also. I am only 20 pages left to be done with reading the MU qualis. I am going to have a headache for a wee while afterwards, but it also mean that today I will be able to play with much more ease. Sorry woofs tbh
The impression I was left with after your interactions with JJJ yesterday was that it was two town players who somewhat reluctantly found each other after some mutual suspicion. And reading you both as town is a big factor in my view of the gamestate today. So I'm wondering if you see the "olive branch" the same way you did yesterday?
by NateTheLesser
Thu Jul 07, 2022 11:57 am
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 187836

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 3]

Marmot wrote: Wed Jul 06, 2022 10:20 pm
Marmot wrote: Wed Jul 06, 2022 10:13 pm I still think Creature's town tbh. I review two of his scum games and two of his town games in the last year, and his posting is far more in line with his town games. Specifically his paranoid complaints about mis-elimming at EOD. There's just none of that in his scum games, and quite a bit in his town games.

Town

Pandas vs Trash Pandas
RPG Mafia

Scum

Rings of Power
Fall of Númenor



Creature voters, I'm curious if you agree with this take.

@fingersplints @RondoDimBuckle @NateTheLesser
Marmot wrote: Thu Jul 07, 2022 1:24 am @JaggedJimmyJay can I get your current read on Creature?
Can I ask why Creature is a priority for you to solve coming into today?
by NateTheLesser
Thu Jul 07, 2022 11:36 am
Forum: Previous Hustles
Topic: Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]
Replies: 5782
Views: 187836

Re: Halvøsen Ridge [DAY 4]

Okay, I've got some actual brainpower today, so let's see what we find.

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