Search found 259 matches

by Lumi
Thu Dec 22, 2022 10:09 am
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Secret Playerlist - ENDGAME
Replies: 8606
Views: 245279

Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 6 Ends 10am Dec 20 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)

Day 7 Vote Count
SoD: #7749 EoD: #0

schiavetto (5): Lumi (37), Manny (57), DeeZees (6), DrWilgy (7), Hally (98)
Not Voting (3): MacDougall (3), Jackofhearts2005 (17), ilario (10)
nanookthegreatandfearsome (2): Ricochet (5), pyxxy (8)
neon (2): Michelle (86), NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME (10)
unvote (1): Inawordyes (40)
deezees (1): Neon (65)
michelle (1): Porscha (2)
by Lumi
Thu Dec 22, 2022 10:09 am
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Secret Playerlist - ENDGAME
Replies: 8606
Views: 245279

Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 6 Ends 10am Dec 20 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)

Neon wrote: Wed Dec 21, 2022 9:05 pmHi Lumi 👋
Hi Neon :blue_heart:
by Lumi
Wed Dec 21, 2022 8:56 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Secret Playerlist - ENDGAME
Replies: 8606
Views: 245279

Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 6 Ends 10am Dec 20 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)

Day 7 Vote Count
SoD: #7749 EoD: #0

schiavetto (5): Lumi (35), Manny (57), DeeZees (4), DrWilgy (7), Hally (98)
Not Voting (3): MacDougall (3), Jackofhearts2005 (17), ilario (3)
neon (3): Michelle (80), pyxxy (7), NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME (7)
unvote (1): Inawordyes (37)
nanookthegreatandfearsome (1): Ricochet (5)
deezees (1): Neon (63)
michelle (1): Porscha (2)
by Lumi
Tue Dec 20, 2022 11:59 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Secret Playerlist - ENDGAME
Replies: 8606
Views: 245279

Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 6 Ends 10am Dec 20 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)

Day 7 Vote Count
SoD: #7749 EoD: #0

neon (3): Hally (43), Michelle (18), pyxxy (4)
schiavetto (2): Lumi (34), Inawordyes (8)
Not Voting (1): MacDougall (2)
manny (1): Manny (18)
by Lumi
Tue Dec 20, 2022 11:59 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Secret Playerlist - ENDGAME
Replies: 8606
Views: 245279

Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 6 Ends 10am Dec 20 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)

Lumi wrote: Tue Dec 20, 2022 11:57 pm Anyway, I'm going for real, if you chop outside Schia today and hit a town, I'm going to be real smug in DVC :joy_cat:

I'm still cheering for town though, I hope you hit a wolf!!! :blue_heart:

Good luck!!!!
(I just realized this can be read as sarcastic, I'm not trying to be sarcastic it was meant to be genuine! I think this setup is super wolf sided and thought it would be fun to try to townside as best as I can without really reading the game, I'm still rooting for town!)
by Lumi
Tue Dec 20, 2022 11:57 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Secret Playerlist - ENDGAME
Replies: 8606
Views: 245279

Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 6 Ends 10am Dec 20 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)

Anyway, I'm going for real, if you chop outside Schia today and hit a town, I'm going to be real smug in DVC :joy_cat:

I'm still cheering for town though, I hope you hit a wolf!!! :blue_heart:

Good luck!!!!
by Lumi
Tue Dec 20, 2022 11:55 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Secret Playerlist - ENDGAME
Replies: 8606
Views: 245279

Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 6 Ends 10am Dec 20 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)

Hally wrote: Tue Dec 20, 2022 11:48 pm
Lumi wrote: Tue Dec 20, 2022 11:43 pm
Hally wrote: Tue Dec 20, 2022 10:42 pm @Lumi @Inawordyes who do you think is most likely to be a wolf besides schia?
I'm not a player, I've hardly read the game, I don't actually have much thought as to who's wolfy - I'm just here to debate game theory :joy_cat:
your game theory ignores the context of the game that you haven’t read

luckily i have 😹
The theory is context invariant B)
by Lumi
Tue Dec 20, 2022 11:54 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Secret Playerlist - ENDGAME
Replies: 8606
Views: 245279

Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 6 Ends 10am Dec 20 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)

Hally wrote: Tue Dec 20, 2022 11:42 pm
Lumi wrote: Tue Dec 20, 2022 11:38 pm
Hally wrote: Tue Dec 20, 2022 10:35 pm here is my position, just so it’s crystal clear

1) i think wilgy and michelle are likely to be villagers who have been solving well

2) i’d like myself and whichever of wilgy/michelle are villagers to be alive to help lunch at least one of the wolves who aren’t min posting because town is behind enough that we need all the help we can get to find and kill the tougher wolves

3) schia could absolutely be a wolf! and in fact, i think that’s probably the case all things considered, but if they are a wolf they’re a free pelt that we can get any day regardless of who is alive. the only upside to lunching them today as opposed to next day would be if we think their wolf flip would clear others, which i’m open to arguments for.

4) if schia is an NPC, there’s no upside to lunching them over waiting for them to be purged and we can always simply sleep as normal in mylo if we want

tell me which of these things is wrong
Choosing to go for someone that's not Schia today is choosing to hunt for wolves in a very cloudy sea of wolves and NPCs that make good solving much more difficult.

Mathematically, you only come out ahead if you can hit a wolf today with a higher probability than hitting a wolf on day 8 post-purge.

I am highly, highly skeptical that you + Wilgy + Michelle all being alive is enough to offset the other handicaps that are present to solving today. And it even runs counter to conventional FM wisdom which states that in general solving gets easier as time goes on as the player pool narrows.
There's not even any guarantee that you + Wilgy + Michelle are all town!
the reason i don’t care about the purge narrowing the pool is because i think it’s fairly obvious what almost the entire player list is and has been for a while
If you think your chances of hitting a wolf today are higher than your chances of hitting a wolf on day 8 after a schia chop today - then by all means. It's really as simple as that.

If you think the purge narrowing the pool isn't going to actually change anything, and you think that you can get the actual players to start taking the game seriously and doing AI stuff, and think that you don't need the extra 48 hours from Day 8 for solving and can just get to a wolf in the 48 hours today, and think that actually those next 48 hours are going to be worse off because you're losing Wilgy or Michelle, then by all means - I am literally unable to vote against you!

I just disagree ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I think you're right in wanting to take advantage of Wilgy and Michelle and you all being alive and do your best to solve today so that you can come into Day 8 with some clear plans after a Schia chop today even if one of you three die. But I don't think that it's correct to not chop Schia.
by Lumi
Tue Dec 20, 2022 11:43 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Secret Playerlist - ENDGAME
Replies: 8606
Views: 245279

Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 6 Ends 10am Dec 20 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)

Hally wrote: Tue Dec 20, 2022 10:42 pm @Lumi @Inawordyes who do you think is most likely to be a wolf besides schia?
I'm not a player, I've hardly read the game, I don't actually have much thought as to who's wolfy - I'm just here to debate game theory :joy_cat:
by Lumi
Tue Dec 20, 2022 11:42 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Secret Playerlist - ENDGAME
Replies: 8606
Views: 245279

Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 6 Ends 10am Dec 20 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)

Lumi wrote: Tue Dec 20, 2022 11:40 pm
Hally wrote: Tue Dec 20, 2022 11:38 pm
Lumi wrote: Tue Dec 20, 2022 11:33 pm By all means, people should still be solving today, and it shouldn't just devolve into an auto-day.

But even if the day where Schia gets chopped is doomed to be an autopilot day, wouldn't it be better that wasted day were before the purge, rather than after it when there's sudden clarity?

Like it just feels like a huge waste to make Day 8 be the turbo Schia day when you have the chance to get that wasted day out of the way without messing up your parity!
i don’t think the bolded matters because i think it’s clear who almost every player is and the only “clarity” we will get post-purge is which of rico/schia is the wolf that’s been larping as an NPC
If you think the probability of hitting a wolf today is higher than the probability of hitting a wolf post-purge with a schia chop today. Then go ahead and advocate to not chop Schia today.

But unless you think that, then not chopping Schia today is wolfsiding. It's really as simple as that ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
(and to be clear, that's the normalized probability of hitting a wolf, e.g if you hit an NPC 42% of the time, hit town 36% of the time, and hit a wolf 22% of the time, then that gets normalized to hitting a wolf (22 / (22+36)) = 37.93% of the time.)
by Lumi
Tue Dec 20, 2022 11:40 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Secret Playerlist - ENDGAME
Replies: 8606
Views: 245279

Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 6 Ends 10am Dec 20 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)

Hally wrote: Tue Dec 20, 2022 11:38 pm
Lumi wrote: Tue Dec 20, 2022 11:33 pm By all means, people should still be solving today, and it shouldn't just devolve into an auto-day.

But even if the day where Schia gets chopped is doomed to be an autopilot day, wouldn't it be better that wasted day were before the purge, rather than after it when there's sudden clarity?

Like it just feels like a huge waste to make Day 8 be the turbo Schia day when you have the chance to get that wasted day out of the way without messing up your parity!
i don’t think the bolded matters because i think it’s clear who almost every player is and the only “clarity” we will get post-purge is which of rico/schia is the wolf that’s been larping as an NPC
If you think the probability of hitting a wolf today is higher than the probability of hitting a wolf post-purge with a schia chop today. Then go ahead and advocate to not chop Schia today.

But unless you think that, then not chopping Schia today is wolfsiding. It's really as simple as that ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
by Lumi
Tue Dec 20, 2022 11:38 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Secret Playerlist - ENDGAME
Replies: 8606
Views: 245279

Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 6 Ends 10am Dec 20 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)

Hally wrote: Tue Dec 20, 2022 10:35 pm here is my position, just so it’s crystal clear

1) i think wilgy and michelle are likely to be villagers who have been solving well

2) i’d like myself and whichever of wilgy/michelle are villagers to be alive to help lunch at least one of the wolves who aren’t min posting because town is behind enough that we need all the help we can get to find and kill the tougher wolves

3) schia could absolutely be a wolf! and in fact, i think that’s probably the case all things considered, but if they are a wolf they’re a free pelt that we can get any day regardless of who is alive. the only upside to lunching them today as opposed to next day would be if we think their wolf flip would clear others, which i’m open to arguments for.

4) if schia is an NPC, there’s no upside to lunching them over waiting for them to be purged and we can always simply sleep as normal in mylo if we want

tell me which of these things is wrong
Choosing to go for someone that's not Schia today is choosing to hunt for wolves in a very cloudy sea of wolves and NPCs that make good solving much more difficult.

Mathematically, you only come out ahead if you can hit a wolf today with a higher probability than hitting a wolf on day 8 post-purge.

I am highly, highly skeptical that you + Wilgy + Michelle all being alive is enough to offset the other handicaps that are present to solving today. And it even runs counter to conventional FM wisdom which states that in general solving gets easier as time goes on as the player pool narrows.
There's not even any guarantee that you + Wilgy + Michelle are all town!
by Lumi
Tue Dec 20, 2022 11:33 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Secret Playerlist - ENDGAME
Replies: 8606
Views: 245279

Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 6 Ends 10am Dec 20 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)

By all means, people should still be solving today, and it shouldn't just devolve into an auto-day.

But even if the day where Schia gets chopped is doomed to be an autopilot day, wouldn't it be better that wasted day were before the purge, rather than after it when there's sudden clarity?

Like it just feels like a huge waste to make Day 8 be the turbo Schia day when you have the chance to get that wasted day out of the way without messing up your parity!
by Lumi
Tue Dec 20, 2022 11:31 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Secret Playerlist - ENDGAME
Replies: 8606
Views: 245279

Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 6 Ends 10am Dec 20 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)

I was writing a mathematical proof to show that the only time you should not chop Schia today is if at least one of the following two are true:

1) Schia is town and will somehow townclear themselves and never be ML'd
2) If the slot town chops today is a player, then [the probability of that player being a wolf] is greater than [the probability of hitting a wolf post-NPC purge]

And since they are both obviously not true - anyone advocating to not chop Schia today is actually just wolfsiding on average.



But then I realized I'm an NPC and shouldn't be wasting any more of my time on this lmao

If you want to play suboptimally, be my guest ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
by Lumi
Tue Dec 20, 2022 10:16 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Secret Playerlist - ENDGAME
Replies: 8606
Views: 245279

Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 6 Ends 10am Dec 20 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)

Inawordyes wrote: Tue Dec 20, 2022 10:12 pm Neon almost dying and then completely falling under the radar afterwards while not really doing anything actively townie is problematic
Yes, true, this has been a hard game for a lot of town to get into though, that is empirically true just by virtue of looking at the playerlist still having a ton of people that have been struggling to get into the game.

Maybe Neon is a wolf, I don't know! I've hardly read the game myself! I don't think I've even read more than a dozen of Neon's posts!
But I'm an NPC who can say whatever I want without any consequences and I think that Neon has to be >>rand wolf to warrant a chop there today
by Lumi
Tue Dec 20, 2022 10:12 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Secret Playerlist - ENDGAME
Replies: 8606
Views: 245279

Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 6 Ends 10am Dec 20 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)

Chopping town~Neon here is nearly game losing!
by Lumi
Tue Dec 20, 2022 10:12 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Secret Playerlist - ENDGAME
Replies: 8606
Views: 245279

Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 6 Ends 10am Dec 20 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)

Hally wrote: Tue Dec 20, 2022 10:11 pm
Lumi wrote: Tue Dec 20, 2022 10:07 pm
Hally wrote: Tue Dec 20, 2022 10:03 pm
Lumi wrote: Tue Dec 20, 2022 9:53 pm
Hally wrote: Tue Dec 20, 2022 9:51 pm
Lumi wrote: Tue Dec 20, 2022 9:31 pm Btw Seanzie wanted to kill Schia, Seanzie was scout, Seanzie might have known Schia was a player. We're on incorrect parity at 7v3 so I think we kill Schia here as a sort of wolf-equity sleep vote.


[VOTE: Schiavetto] aubergine
if seanzie had a player check on schia he would have claimed it 100%

also if you read his posts, i think it’s pretty clear he didn’t check schia

i think he checked neon and illario as players though
Town is on wrong parity right now, so they need a sleep anyway, it is absolutely the right play to use a "sleep" vote on an NPC that also has significant wolf equity in Shia
no, we should go for a player in the PoE and leave schia/rico to get sorted by the purge

if we go schia today wolves will just kill one of me/michelle/wilgy tonight and there will be one less active villager alive to help kill the more active wolves

there’s no upside to it when we can just turbo whichever of schia/rico is still alive tomorrow
Do you think that if the game is 5v3 that town should sleep or should town just try to find a wolf among the 8 players?
i think that in this particular game town needs all the help we can get and we shouldn’t let wolves kill off another villager regardless of the numbers
You're acting like Neon is a flipped wolf, why do you scumread Neon so much?
by Lumi
Tue Dec 20, 2022 10:10 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Secret Playerlist - ENDGAME
Replies: 8606
Views: 245279

Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 6 Ends 10am Dec 20 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)

Hally wrote: Tue Dec 20, 2022 10:09 pm if you go for schia today and they end up flipping NPC, we lose an active villager in the night and have one less villager actively solving in the thread when we have to find the wolves who are posting, and we desperately need as many active villagers itt as we can possibly get

and if you go schia and they’re a wolf, it gives no info and just kills a wolf who would be outed tomorrow anyway

zero upside
If the game is 5v3 do you think town should sleep or should they try to find the wolf?
by Lumi
Tue Dec 20, 2022 10:09 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Secret Playerlist - ENDGAME
Replies: 8606
Views: 245279

Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 6 Ends 10am Dec 20 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)

Day 7 Vote Count
SoD: #7749 EoD: #0

neon (3): Hally (29), Michelle (18), pyxxy (4)
schiavetto (2): Lumi (19), Inawordyes (1)
Not Voting (1): MacDougall (2)
manny (1): Manny (18)
by Lumi
Tue Dec 20, 2022 10:07 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Secret Playerlist - ENDGAME
Replies: 8606
Views: 245279

Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 6 Ends 10am Dec 20 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)

Hally wrote: Tue Dec 20, 2022 10:03 pm
Lumi wrote: Tue Dec 20, 2022 9:53 pm
Hally wrote: Tue Dec 20, 2022 9:51 pm
Lumi wrote: Tue Dec 20, 2022 9:31 pm Btw Seanzie wanted to kill Schia, Seanzie was scout, Seanzie might have known Schia was a player. We're on incorrect parity at 7v3 so I think we kill Schia here as a sort of wolf-equity sleep vote.


[VOTE: Schiavetto] aubergine
if seanzie had a player check on schia he would have claimed it 100%

also if you read his posts, i think it’s pretty clear he didn’t check schia

i think he checked neon and illario as players though
Town is on wrong parity right now, so they need a sleep anyway, it is absolutely the right play to use a "sleep" vote on an NPC that also has significant wolf equity in Shia
no, we should go for a player in the PoE and leave schia/rico to get sorted by the purge

if we go schia today wolves will just kill one of me/michelle/wilgy tonight and there will be one less active villager alive to help kill the more active wolves

there’s no upside to it when we can just turbo whichever of schia/rico is still alive tomorrow
Do you think that if the game is 5v3 that town should sleep or should town just try to find a wolf among the 8 players?
by Lumi
Tue Dec 20, 2022 9:59 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Secret Playerlist - ENDGAME
Replies: 8606
Views: 245279

Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 6 Ends 10am Dec 20 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)

Manny wrote: Tue Dec 20, 2022 9:58 pm
Lumi wrote: Tue Dec 20, 2022 9:55 pm Town has the incorrect parity 7v3 - Town needs to sleep to get to 6v3 at some point anyway.
why is 6v3 better than 7v3, isnt more towns = better?

6v3 -> 4v3
Whereas 7v3 -> 5v3

By sleeping you get more info and one less person to potentially ML

There are sometimes exceptions, but this is not one of them
by Lumi
Tue Dec 20, 2022 9:56 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Secret Playerlist - ENDGAME
Replies: 8606
Views: 245279

Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 6 Ends 10am Dec 20 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)

Hally wrote: Tue Dec 20, 2022 9:55 pm also, while we’re on that subject, if illario actually never used his deleter that’s really ??? too

dunno why he claimed it’s protown to holster it, it’s definitely not lol
Rather than bagging on PRs Seanzie and ilario, you should vote Schia B)

Let the late Seanzie rest in peace :pensive:
by Lumi
Tue Dec 20, 2022 9:55 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Secret Playerlist - ENDGAME
Replies: 8606
Views: 245279

Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 6 Ends 10am Dec 20 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)

Lumi wrote: Tue Dec 20, 2022 9:51 pm Ya, not much more info to be gained

I think the useful info is:

These players are basically mech confirmed players (there are some scenarios in which they're not, but those are really weird scenarios, so...)
Michelle
Wilgy
Neon
Porscah



The list of NPCs:
LumI
Manny
One or more of DZ / pyxxy
Exactly one of Jack/Ilario


At MOST a single NPC on this list:
Hally
Schia
Ricochet
Nook
IAWY


I think its time to murderize schia
@Hally
@Michelle
@pyxxy
@DrWilgy
@Porscha
@Neon
@NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME
@Inawordyes

@ilario
@Jackofhearts2005
@DeeZees
@pyxxy


Town has the incorrect parity 7v3 - Town needs to sleep to get to 6v3 at some point anyway.

Schia absolutely never is going to be allowed to live after a purge, and so right now is the time to chop it - if you hit an NPC, great, you're on correct parity. If you hit a town, well you were going to hit that town eventually anyway. If you hit a wolf, perfect.


Vote Schia today or I will shame you after the game for being bad B)
by Lumi
Tue Dec 20, 2022 9:53 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Secret Playerlist - ENDGAME
Replies: 8606
Views: 245279

Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 6 Ends 10am Dec 20 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)

Hally wrote: Tue Dec 20, 2022 9:51 pm
Lumi wrote: Tue Dec 20, 2022 9:31 pm Btw Seanzie wanted to kill Schia, Seanzie was scout, Seanzie might have known Schia was a player. We're on incorrect parity at 7v3 so I think we kill Schia here as a sort of wolf-equity sleep vote.


[VOTE: Schiavetto] aubergine
if seanzie had a player check on schia he would have claimed it 100%

also if you read his posts, i think it’s pretty clear he didn’t check schia

i think he checked neon and illario as players though
Town is on wrong parity right now, so they need a sleep anyway, it is absolutely the right play to use a "sleep" vote on an NPC that also has significant wolf equity in Shia
by Lumi
Tue Dec 20, 2022 9:52 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Secret Playerlist - ENDGAME
Replies: 8606
Views: 245279

Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 6 Ends 10am Dec 20 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)

Day 7 Vote Count
SoD: #7749 EoD: #0

neon (3): Hally (23), Michelle (18), pyxxy (4)
Not Voting (1): MacDougall (2)
manny (1): Manny (17)
schiavetto (1): Lumi (13)
by Lumi
Tue Dec 20, 2022 9:51 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Secret Playerlist - ENDGAME
Replies: 8606
Views: 245279

Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 6 Ends 10am Dec 20 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)

Ya, not much more info to be gained

I think the useful info is:

These players are basically mech confirmed players (there are some scenarios in which they're not, but those are really weird scenarios, so...)
Michelle
Wilgy
Neon
Porscah



The list of NPCs:
LumI
Manny
One or more of DZ / pyxxy
Exactly one of Jack/Ilario


At MOST a single NPC on this list:
Hally
Schia
Ricochet
Nook
IAWY


I think its time to murderize schia
by Lumi
Tue Dec 20, 2022 9:46 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Secret Playerlist - ENDGAME
Replies: 8606
Views: 245279

Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 6 Ends 10am Dec 20 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)

Day 4 Vote Count
SoD: #5097 EoD: #5825

Not Voting (7): MacDougall (15), Lumi (32), SilverKeith (12), Porscha (40), iaafr (1), Schiavetto (5), Marmot (1)
lilypetal (5): santygrass (82), nutella (38), Michelle (41), DeeZees (26), Hally (57)
neon (4): Seanzie (5), falcon45ca (9), Lilypetal (57), EnderWiggin (36)
enderwiggin (3): Neon (50), ilario (6), Vivax (57)
falcon (2): Jackofhearts2005 (23), DrWilgy (37)
manny (1): Manny (39)
nutella (1): NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME (12)
unvote (1): Inawordyes (18)
schiavetto (1): pyxxy (19)
sprityo (1): Ricochet (6)
ricochet (1): sprityo (5)

Lily has:
3 votes + DZ + Hally
Neon has: 3 votes

Means that there is guaranteed at least one PC among DZ and Hally

Doesn't actually tell us that much
by Lumi
Tue Dec 20, 2022 9:43 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Secret Playerlist - ENDGAME
Replies: 8606
Views: 245279

Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 6 Ends 10am Dec 20 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)

Day 3 Vote Count
SoD: #3945 EoD: #5097

Not Voting (10): MacDougall (13), Lumi (45), c4e5g3d5 (3), Inawordyes (5), Guillotine (2), Marmot (7), falcon45ca (7), JaggedJimmyJay (5), sprityo (5), Schiavetto (5)
drwilgy (6): SilverKeith (9), nutella (84), Vivax (53), ilario (16), EnderWiggin (37), Jackofhearts2005 (18)
ranmilia (4): iaafr (55), Porscha (47), Neon (32), Lilypetal (40)
vivax (3): DeeZees (30), santygrass (124), Ranmilia (94)
nutella (2): NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME (20), katze (74)
neon (1): Seanzie (5)
scotty (1): Sloonei (8)
ran (1): DrWilgy (21)
dyslexicon (1): RondoDimBuckle (56)
lilypetal (1): Hally (68)
nanookthegreatandmightywizardfirstofhisnameandfatherofdragons (1): Scotty (22)
katze (1): G-Man (8)
manny (1): Manny (29)
rondodimbuckle (1): Michelle (73)
santygrass (1): pyxxy (16)
sloonei (1): Ricochet (8)
rondo (1): Dyslexicon (9)

Wilgy has: 2 votes + ilario + Jack
Ran has: 1 vote + Porscha + Neon

Therefore if both ilario and Jack are NPCs then there's also an NPC among Porscha/Neon
Which leaves room for only 2 more NPCs which means Manny would have to be a PC

So assuming Manny and Me are NPCs, that means that there's exactly 1 NPC among Ilario and Jack and Porscha + Neon are both confirmed players.




Currently up to

Basically mech confirmed players:
Michelle
Wilgy
Porscha
Neon



NPCs:
Lumi
Manny
At least one of DZ/pyxxy
Exactly one of ilario/Jack


TBD:
Hally
Schia
Ricochet
Nook
IAWY
by Lumi
Tue Dec 20, 2022 9:40 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Secret Playerlist - ENDGAME
Replies: 8606
Views: 245279

Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 6 Ends 10am Dec 20 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)

Lumi wrote: Tue Dec 20, 2022 9:37 pm Day 2 Vote Count
SoD: #2658 EoD: #3945

Not Voting (13): MacDougall (8), katze (37), c4e5g3d5 (5), Sloonei (9), JaggedJimmyJay (5), Lumi (36), G-Man (6), risiinq- (6), Porscha (26), Inawordyes (9), WindwardAway (4), Schiavetto (14), falcon45ca (5)
santygrass (6): pyxxy (7), DeeZees (25), Creature (46), EnderWiggin (67), Vivax (26), Guillotine (48)
hollowkatt (6): Dyslexicon (46), Jackofhearts2005 (46), DrWilgy (16), santygrass (59), Ranmilia (96), tutuu (66)
michelle (3): NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME (8), hollowkatt (17), Chelsea (7)
marmot (2): Marmot (14), sprityo (6)
enderwiggin (2): Neon (19), nutella (53)
unvote (2): Hally (75), RondoDimBuckle (48)
deezees (1): iaafr (104)
scotty (1): Lilypetal (24)
guillotine (1): Seanzie (5)
manny (1): Manny (63)
drwilgy (1): SilverKeith (22)
sloonei (1): Ricochet (5)
nutella (1): Michelle (74)
dr. wilgy (1): ilario (5)
hollowkat (1): Scotty (21)
HK had 3 votes + Jack
Santy had at most 2 votes, so no info to be gained here
by Lumi
Tue Dec 20, 2022 9:38 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Secret Playerlist - ENDGAME
Replies: 8606
Views: 245279

Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 6 Ends 10am Dec 20 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)

Lumi wrote: Tue Dec 20, 2022 9:36 pm Day 1 Vote Count
SoD: #0 EoD: #2658

Not Voting (11): MacDougall (28), NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME (13), Lilypetal (15), SilverKeith (44), Inawordyes (11), Michelle (42), JaggedJimmyJay (30), risiinq- (39), sabie12 (2), Fext (5), Porscha (47)
golden (8): DeeZees (19), lucy (19), Vivax (18), Dyslexicon (54), EnderWiggin (100), RondoDimBuckle (119), DrWilgy (17), Creature (78)
chelsea (7): Scotty (37), Golden (47), Neon (69), ilario (38), ~Prince J~ (18), Guillotine (150), tutuu (28)
unvote (3): WindwardAway (101), arogame123 (61), iaafr (133)
arogame (2): nutella (120), Sabiplz (243)
c4e5g3d5 (2): c4e5g3d5 (80), Marmot (76)
master radishes (2): Sloonei (24), sprityo (18)
sloonei (2): Ricochet (5), pyxxy (7)
lily (1): falcon45ca (17)
guillotina (1): katze (94)
jaggedjimmyjay (1): Jackofhearts2005 (62)
jackofhearts2005 (1): Schiavetto (17)
scotty (1): Hally (118)
guillotine (1): santygrass (29)
manny (1): Manny (165)
whomever owns this hellsite (1): hollowkatt (64)
macdougal (1): Seanzie (5)
test (1): Lumi (42)
risiinq~ (1): Ranmilia (31)
golden the coward (1): G-Man (17)
iaafr (1): Chelsea (11)
michelle (1): TonyStarkPrime (31)
CW only has Neon, ilario as potential players but Wilgy is basically mech confirmed a player, and so there's really no information to be gained here.
by Lumi
Tue Dec 20, 2022 9:37 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Secret Playerlist - ENDGAME
Replies: 8606
Views: 245279

Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 6 Ends 10am Dec 20 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)

Day 2 Vote Count
SoD: #2658 EoD: #3945

Not Voting (13): MacDougall (8), katze (37), c4e5g3d5 (5), Sloonei (9), JaggedJimmyJay (5), Lumi (36), G-Man (6), risiinq- (6), Porscha (26), Inawordyes (9), WindwardAway (4), Schiavetto (14), falcon45ca (5)
santygrass (6): pyxxy (7), DeeZees (25), Creature (46), EnderWiggin (67), Vivax (26), Guillotine (48)
hollowkatt (6): Dyslexicon (46), Jackofhearts2005 (46), DrWilgy (16), santygrass (59), Ranmilia (96), tutuu (66)
michelle (3): NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME (8), hollowkatt (17), Chelsea (7)
marmot (2): Marmot (14), sprityo (6)
enderwiggin (2): Neon (19), nutella (53)
unvote (2): Hally (75), RondoDimBuckle (48)
deezees (1): iaafr (104)
scotty (1): Lilypetal (24)
guillotine (1): Seanzie (5)
manny (1): Manny (63)
drwilgy (1): SilverKeith (22)
sloonei (1): Ricochet (5)
nutella (1): Michelle (74)
dr. wilgy (1): ilario (5)
hollowkat (1): Scotty (21)
by Lumi
Tue Dec 20, 2022 9:36 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Secret Playerlist - ENDGAME
Replies: 8606
Views: 245279

Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 6 Ends 10am Dec 20 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)

Day 1 Vote Count
SoD: #0 EoD: #2658

Not Voting (11): MacDougall (28), NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME (13), Lilypetal (15), SilverKeith (44), Inawordyes (11), Michelle (42), JaggedJimmyJay (30), risiinq- (39), sabie12 (2), Fext (5), Porscha (47)
golden (8): DeeZees (19), lucy (19), Vivax (18), Dyslexicon (54), EnderWiggin (100), RondoDimBuckle (119), DrWilgy (17), Creature (78)
chelsea (7): Scotty (37), Golden (47), Neon (69), ilario (38), ~Prince J~ (18), Guillotine (150), tutuu (28)
unvote (3): WindwardAway (101), arogame123 (61), iaafr (133)
arogame (2): nutella (120), Sabiplz (243)
c4e5g3d5 (2): c4e5g3d5 (80), Marmot (76)
master radishes (2): Sloonei (24), sprityo (18)
sloonei (2): Ricochet (5), pyxxy (7)
lily (1): falcon45ca (17)
guillotina (1): katze (94)
jaggedjimmyjay (1): Jackofhearts2005 (62)
jackofhearts2005 (1): Schiavetto (17)
scotty (1): Hally (118)
guillotine (1): santygrass (29)
manny (1): Manny (165)
whomever owns this hellsite (1): hollowkatt (64)
macdougal (1): Seanzie (5)
test (1): Lumi (42)
risiinq~ (1): Ranmilia (31)
golden the coward (1): G-Man (17)
iaafr (1): Chelsea (11)
michelle (1): TonyStarkPrime (31)
by Lumi
Tue Dec 20, 2022 9:32 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Secret Playerlist - ENDGAME
Replies: 8606
Views: 245279

Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 6 Ends 10am Dec 20 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)

Manny wrote: Tue Dec 20, 2022 9:15 pm
Lumi wrote: Tue Dec 20, 2022 9:13 pm I'm pretty obviously an NPC
our masonry lasted the maximum it could've lasted, w.
Tbh, highlight of the game B)
by Lumi
Tue Dec 20, 2022 9:32 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Secret Playerlist - ENDGAME
Replies: 8606
Views: 245279

Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 6 Ends 10am Dec 20 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)

Porscha
Schia
Michelle
DZ
Hally
Neon
ilario
Jack
Wilfy
Manny
Nook
IAWY
pyxxy
Ricochet

That should be the living players
by Lumi
Tue Dec 20, 2022 9:31 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Secret Playerlist - ENDGAME
Replies: 8606
Views: 245279

Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 6 Ends 10am Dec 20 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)

Btw Seanzie wanted to kill Schia, Seanzie was scout, Seanzie might have known Schia was a player. We're on incorrect parity at 7v3 so I think we kill Schia here as a sort of wolf-equity sleep vote.


[VOTE: Schiavetto] aubergine
by Lumi
Tue Dec 20, 2022 9:15 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Secret Playerlist - ENDGAME
Replies: 8606
Views: 245279

Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 6 Ends 10am Dec 20 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)

Day 5 Vote Count
SoD: #5825 EoD: #6768

Not Voting (5): MacDougall (5), sprityo (5), SilverKeith (1), Porscha (23), Schiavetto (5)
vivax (5): santygrass (99), DrWilgy (50), Seanzie (119), Michelle (40), Lumi (44)
jackofhearts2005 (4): pyxxy (28), nutella (135), DeeZees (12), Vivax (32)
nutella (2): NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME (5), ilario (14)
falcon45ca (2): Jackofhearts2005 (53), Inawordyes (92)
unvote (1): Hally (24)
manny (1): Manny (37)
pyxxy (1): Neon (61)
sprityo (1): Ricochet (5)
santygrass (1): falcon45ca (55)

The fact that this isn't a tie means that at least one of pyxxy or DZ is an NPC
by Lumi
Tue Dec 20, 2022 9:14 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Secret Playerlist - ENDGAME
Replies: 8606
Views: 245279

Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 6 Ends 10am Dec 20 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)

Day 7 Vote Count
SoD: #7749 EoD: #0

neon (3): Hally (19), Michelle (18), pyxxy (4)
Not Voting (2): MacDougall (2), Lumi (1)
manny (1): Manny (16)
by Lumi
Tue Dec 20, 2022 9:13 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Secret Playerlist - ENDGAME
Replies: 8606
Views: 245279

Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 6 Ends 10am Dec 20 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)

I'm pretty obviously an NPC

:joy_cat:

This is your last day with me
by Lumi
Mon Dec 19, 2022 4:31 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Secret Playerlist - ENDGAME
Replies: 8606
Views: 245279

Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 6 Ends 10am Dec 20 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)

nutella wrote: Mon Dec 19, 2022 4:29 pm i kinda agree with hally on the falcon thing actually yeah


but also anyone who doesnt see why porscha is a wagon just like...look at her last couple days it's fucking nothing
I don't care, I think falcon is wolfier

Porscha feels more like LHF than actual wolf equity, maybe falcon is too, but w.e
by Lumi
Mon Dec 19, 2022 4:28 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Secret Playerlist - ENDGAME
Replies: 8606
Views: 245279

Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 6 Ends 10am Dec 20 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)

Seanzie wrote: Mon Dec 19, 2022 4:27 pm
Lumi wrote: Mon Dec 19, 2022 4:24 pm I don't agree to the terms and conditions. Yeeting Schia today is suboptimal, no matter how intentionally needling Schia's been.

There are three deaths left before the purge. Currently the game is on the correct parity.
If of the chop + NK we have 1 player death and 1 NPC death, THEN It's correct to chop Schia since you either hit a wolf (yay) or get back to the correct parity

It's basically a sleep vote on wrong parity that has some bonus wolf equity to it.
But if we chop Schia, Schia flips NPC, and we have a player death tonight, the game will be 9v3, incorrect parity, and will have to sleep AGAIN later on.
Can you at least claim and agree to the first condition in the terms and conditions? I'll even put a * next to your name to explain that you only agreed to part of the T&C.

Terms and conditions:
Spoiler: show
Seanzie wrote: Mon Dec 19, 2022 2:23 pm I thought about it, and I decided as town leader that there are two new thread rules.

Thread Rule 1: Everyone must claim either player or NPC. If you claim NPC and are alive after the culling, you are insta-killed. NPCs can claim player though (how could we stop them?) If someone claims NPC, they are NOT allowed to be voted.

Thread Rule 2: If @Schiavetto doesn't claim either player or NPC, they are to be yeeted today.
Current hardclaim list:
Spoiler: show
Claimed player:
falcon45ca
Michelle
Seanzie
nutella
Hally
Inawordyes

Claimed NPC:
Manny
pyxxy

No claims:
DeeZees
DrWilgy
ilario
Jackofhearts2005
Lumi
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME
Neon
Porscha
Ricochet
Schiavetto
sprityo
You shouldn't be trying to get Schia yeeted today regardless.

I'm not agreeing to anything that involves a schia yeet today, this is an exercise in restraint and just ignoring a slot that's very likely just an NPC and can be turbo'd on day 8 if they're not
by Lumi
Mon Dec 19, 2022 4:27 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Secret Playerlist - ENDGAME
Replies: 8606
Views: 245279

Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 6 Ends 10am Dec 20 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)

Day 6 Vote Count
SoD: #6768 EoD: #0

porscha (5): Michelle (24), DeeZees (38), nutella (112), falcon45ca (20), Seanzie (137)
Not Voting (3): MacDougall (6), DrWilgy (22), Porscha (19)
falcon45ca (2): Jackofhearts2005 (56), Lumi (19)
unvote (2): pyxxy (32), Hally (82)
sprityo (1): Ricochet (5)
spirityo (1): ilario (20)
pyxxy (1): Neon (38)
schiavetto (1): Inawordyes (57)
manny (1): Manny (11)
nutella (1): NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME (7)
ilario (1): sprityo (2)
by Lumi
Mon Dec 19, 2022 4:26 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Secret Playerlist - ENDGAME
Replies: 8606
Views: 245279

Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 6 Ends 10am Dec 20 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)

I don't think Porscha is a hit
by Lumi
Mon Dec 19, 2022 4:24 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Secret Playerlist - ENDGAME
Replies: 8606
Views: 245279

Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 6 Ends 10am Dec 20 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)

I don't agree to the terms and conditions. Yeeting Schia today is suboptimal, no matter how intentionally needling Schia's been.

There are three deaths left before the purge. Currently the game is on the correct parity.
If of the chop + NK we have 1 player death and 1 NPC death, THEN It's correct to chop Schia since you either hit a wolf (yay) or get back to the correct parity

It's basically a sleep vote on wrong parity that has some bonus wolf equity to it.
But if we chop Schia, Schia flips NPC, and we have a player death tonight, the game will be 9v3, incorrect parity, and will have to sleep AGAIN later on.
by Lumi
Mon Dec 19, 2022 4:15 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Secret Playerlist - ENDGAME
Replies: 8606
Views: 245279

Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 6 Ends 10am Dec 20 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)

Day 6 Vote Count
SoD: #6768 EoD: #0

porscha (5): Michelle (24), DeeZees (38), nutella (112), falcon45ca (20), Seanzie (134)
Not Voting (3): MacDougall (6), DrWilgy (22), Porscha (19)
unvote (3): pyxxy (32), Lumi (13), Hally (80)
sprityo (1): Ricochet (5)
spirityo (1): ilario (20)
pyxxy (1): Neon (38)
schiavetto (1): Inawordyes (57)
manny (1): Manny (11)
nutella (1): NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME (7)
falcon45ca (1): Jackofhearts2005 (56)
ilario (1): sprityo (2)
by Lumi
Sun Dec 18, 2022 10:07 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Secret Playerlist - ENDGAME
Replies: 8606
Views: 245279

Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 6 Ends 10am Dec 20 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)

Day 6 Vote Count
SoD: #6768 EoD: #0

Not Voting (5): MacDougall (6), DrWilgy (8), Hally (35), Porscha (12), falcon45ca (1)
pyxxy (3): DeeZees (35), Neon (23), Jackofhearts2005 (45)
unvote (2): pyxxy (23), Lumi (12)
ilario (2): nutella (84), Inawordyes (47)
inawordyes (2): ilario (8), Michelle (8)
porscha (1): Seanzie (72)
sprityo (1): Ricochet (5)
manny (1): Manny (7)
nutella (1): NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME (7)
by Lumi
Sun Dec 18, 2022 9:57 pm
Forum: Previous Sit Downs
Topic: Secret Playerlist - ENDGAME
Replies: 8606
Views: 245279

Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 6 Ends 10am Dec 20 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)

Day 6 Vote Count
SoD: #6768 EoD: #0

Not Voting (4): MacDougall (6), DrWilgy (8), Hally (31), Porscha (12)
inawordyes (3): Lumi (10), ilario (8), Michelle (8)
pyxxy (3): DeeZees (35), Neon (23), Jackofhearts2005 (45)
ilario (2): nutella (84), Inawordyes (44)
porscha (1): Seanzie (71)
unvote (1): pyxxy (23)
sprityo (1): Ricochet (5)
manny (1): Manny (7)
nutella (1): NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME (7)

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